More or Less

4.7 (779)
MATHEMATICS
UPDATED WEEKLY

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life

3D AGO

How likely is ‘likely’?

When you’re listening to the news, you will often hear words that are meant to communicate the probability of something happening. A terrorist attack is “a realistic possibility”, the spread of a certain strain of virus is “highly likely", the relegation of your favourite football team is “possible”. But when you hear these terms, do you really know what kind of probabilities they’re trying to convey? Do you know how likely “likely” is? Or what probability “probable” is meant to get across? In some cases, it seems you probably don't. Professor Adam Kucharski, author of Proof, the Uncertain Science of Certainty, designed a quiz to work out the actual probabilities of the language we use to convey risks. The data he got back shows how sometimes these words mean very different things to different people. If you want to try the quiz for yourself, head over to https://probability.kucharski.io/ Email the More or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk CREDITS: Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
MAR 28

How much water does AI consume?

As Artificial Intelligence continues to expand rapidly, some people have raised concerns about its potential environmental impact - in particular its use of water, which is used to cool both data centres and the power generators that supply them with electricity. One recent book on AI contained the alarming prediction that AI could consume between 4 and 6 trillion litres a year by 2027. Could this eye-popping figure be right? If not, what is the correct figure, and is it a big number? The devil, as ever, is in the detail, and with the help of expert Alex de Vries-Gao, the More or Loss team has taken a deep dive to get to the truth about AI and water consumption. If you’ve seen a number in the news and you think More or Less should take a look, email the team on moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer / Reporter: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Dave O’Neil Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
MAR 21

Paul Ehrlich: The man who bet England wouldn’t exist by the year 2000

Paul Ehrlich’s bestselling book The Population Bomb opens with an apocalyptic paragraph. “The battle to feed all of humanity is over,” it states. “In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate.” Professor Ehrlich, who died last week, made a simple argument. The global population was outrunning our capacity to produce enough food to feed everyone. Famine, disease and nuclear Armageddon would follow if the population was not controlled. The book made him a celebrity, and he regularly spoke in public, warning of the imminent threat to humanity. Sometimes his warnings were quite vague in terms of the timescale, but other times not - he was reported as saying in 1968 that if current trends continued, by the year 2000, the UK would be a “small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people". "If I were a gambler," he was quoted as saying, "I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000". But the UK did not collapse, the global death rate did not increase, and we have more food per person now than when he wrote the book. So, what went wrong with Paul Ehrlich's predictions of a population apocalypse? If you’ve seen a number or claim that you think More or Less should look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk CONTRIBUTORS Vincent Geloso, Assistant Professor of economics at George Mason University Darrell Bricker, global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs and co-author of Empty Planet, the Shock of Global Population Decline Peter Alexander, Professor of Global Food Systems at the University of Edinburgh CREDITS: Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O’Neil Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
MAR 14

Transgender women in sport: Does ‘comparable’ mean ‘equal’?

In most sports, men compete against men and women compete against women. That is generally considered fair, because men are faster, more powerful and have greater endurance. But there is an ongoing controversy about transgender women - people who were born male and now identify as women. Is it fair for them to compete in the women’s sport category or do they have an advantage? A study in the British Journal of Sports Medicine recently added to the debate with an analysis that found the strength and fitness of transgender women is “comparable” with that of women. More or Less looks into the research to explain what it does, and does not, say. Contributors: Professor Alun Williams, Manchester Metropolitan University Credits: Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
MAR 7

US-Israel war with Iran: Do the gulf states have enough interceptor missiles?

On Saturday 28th February, the US and Israel launched a military attack on Iran, targeting the country's missile infrastructure, military sites and leadership. In response, Iran launched a wave of strikes across the region, including on Israel and the Gulf states. Iran has a stockpile of ballistic missiles, which it’s firing at neighbouring countries. These countries in turn are using interceptor missiles to try and shoot them down. But is it clear who will run out of missiles first? Contributor: Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Center Credits: Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Tom Brignell Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
FEB 28

Has a company really discovered a million new species?

Have a million new species just been discovered? That’s the claim made by Dr Oliver Vince, co-founder of a company called Basecamp Research, who are collecting genetic data to train AI systems. The hope is that they’ll be able to use this to discover new medicines. But is this number a good one? Rob Finn, from the European Bioinformatics Institute, explains what is being counted and how you go about counting them. Credits: Presenter and producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O’Neill Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
FEB 21

Did AI researchers let AI hallucinations into scientific papers?

AI can make mistakes – and AI chatbots like ChatGPT warn you about that whenever you ask them anything. These mistakes sometimes involve making up entirely fictitious, factually false statements known as “hallucinations”. Whether these hallucinations matter depends on what you’re using AI for, and whether they are spotted and corrected. The team on More or Less were slightly surprised to read a headline in Fortune magazine, claiming that a top academic AI conference accepted research papers which contained 100 AI-hallucinated citations. You might think that the top AI researchers in the world would be careful about using AI to write their research papers. Alex Cui, CTO and co-founder of GPTZero – whose company discovered the hallucinations – explains what’s going on. CREDITS: Presenter and producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: James Beard Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
FEB 17

Is an ancient charioteer the best paid sportsperson of all time?

Modern sport can seem awash with money, but it’s been claimed that the richest sportsperson of all is an ancient Roman Charioteer from the second century AD called Gaius Appuleius Diocles, with career winnings that stood at 35 million sesterces. One calculation has translated that into an astonishing $15 billion dollars today, and it’s a figure that’s stuck. But should we believe it? Duncan Weldon talks to ancient historian Professor Mary Beard from the University of Cambridge to learn more about the big business of chariot racing, and how we should think about money and wealth in the economies of the past. Presenter: Duncan Weldon Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

9 min

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Tim Harford

Host
Alex de Vries-Gao

Guest
Tom Colls

Guest
Kelly A. Grieco

Guest
Alex Cui

Guest
Rob Eastaway

Guest
Toby Nangle

Guest
Richard Vadon

Guest
Jay Foreman

Guest
Mike Thompson

Guest

4.7

out of 5

779 Ratings

Statistical literacy is sorely needed - thank you

Mar 14

PototoNoroa

Even professionals in scientific fields often don’t have a real grounding in statistical interpretation. Not just reading the previous few papers in your field and copy pasting their statistical method. Real understanding. Capacity to know not just what, but why, and the limitations every approach to stats (even the best ones) have. That’s what we need.
Do better

Mar 29

Future-is-bright

More or Less brings the research to the questions of the day! But you’ve been failing in your analysis. Your expert, university professor champions the idea that it’s not that big! The numbers provided were, the Trump administration says it’s 71B but your expert says a lot of that was refunded so it’s closer to 36B - the show takeaway was Trump is wrong again. More or Less has missed the point. Your program isn’t to split hairs. It should be to help people understand the numbers. The use the number your expert accepted, 36B. More or less should have then said: the average grandma may receive 18k annually- 36B is the equivalent of 2,000,000 grandmas not getting paid!!! Many of the DOGE cuts are tied up in court but 7 million accounts were removed from Social Security and there’s been no outcry of grandmothers missing their checks, why? Because the closed accounts were predominantly fraudsters? But More or Less didn’t ask this question either. If you are going to help people understand the numbers. Think about the meaning and impact of the statistics. I’m disappointed, I expect more from More or Less A later episode shows More or less has lost its way and can’t seem to follow the numbers anymore. Here they start with water use on site is less than stated and then they say 90% is attributed to the power plant and then it gets complicated. Ground water use is bad but river use at the power station might have little impact but they fail to follow the numbers. When it’s politically convenient they will say it’s false but here with water usage they just give up. Do better.
Not Dismal

10/27/2024

takinite

The way ‘economics’ should be taught. However recently the FBI changed crime statistics up so mabe Trump was correct in the ‘debate’ such as it was. Thank you Mr Harford
ENGLAND PROTECTIONISM

03/30/2025

LSCSAIRCREW

It is amazing IAW this PODCAST England is never wrong.