More or Less: Behind the Stats

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BUSINESS
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Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4

1 DAY AGO

Did Mussolini make the trains run on time?

“Say what you like about Mussolini but he did make the trains run on time.” This phrase is the political equivalent of “every cloud has a silver lining” – but does it have any factual basis? Mussolini’s dictatorship in Italy was full of atrocities, brutal suppression and propaganda. Did it also create a more efficient railway network? We speak to Professor Ruth Ben-Ghiat about the truth of the claim and why the Mussolini regime wanted us to believe it. Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Lizzy McNeill Researcher: Esme Winterbotham Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Master: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison. Image: Benito Mussolini in his train studying maps. (Photo by ullstein picture/ullstein picture via Getty Images)

9 min
DEC 14

How many Americans live ‘paycheck to paycheck’?

Are most Americans barely holding their head above water when it comes to personal finances? That’s what various US politicians and news outlets keep suggesting. They can’t stop using a statistic about people living “paycheck to paycheck”. But what does this really mean? We go behind the headlines to unpick the numbers. Contributor: Ben Krauss, journalist Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Vicky Baker and Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Engineer: Andrew Mills Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
DEC 7

Did one in 10 Greeks die in World War Two?

When World War Two came to Greece, a period of terrible human suffering followed. There was a brutal battle with Italian and then Nazi forces, followed by an occupation in which thousands were executed and a terrible famine swept the nation. There’s an often repeated number that appears to capture the brutality of this time – that 10% of the Greek population died during the war. We investigate where this statistic comes from and whether it is true. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

10 min
NOV 30

Can Elon Musk save the US Government $2 trillion?

President Elect Donald Trump has created a new government advisory group – the Department of Government Efficiency or ‘DOGE’ - to help cut the US budget. The world richest man, Elon Musk, will co-head the department and has pledged to cut ‘at least $2 trillion’ to ‘balance the budget’. But is this possible? We talk to Professor Linda Bilmes about what DOGE could or couldn’t do and how she balanced the budget in the 1990’s. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Mix: Andrew Mills Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
NOV 23

Do fossil fuels get $7 trillion in subsidies?

Governments around the world have promised to fight climate change. But are they also pumping an absolutely massive amount of money into subsidies for fossil fuels? In 2022, an IMF working paper estimated that global subsidies for fossil fuels totalled $7 trillion. But when you dig into that research, you find that this number might not mean what you think it does. We explain how they reached that conclusion, with the help of Angela Picciariello from the International Institute for Sustainable Development, and Nate Vernon, one of the co-authors of the IMF paper.

9 min
NOV 16

Did 20 million votes really go missing in the US election?

Just hours after Donald Trump claimed victory in the US presidential election, rumours started swirling that something was afoot. A graph went viral on social media that appeared to show there were 20 million more votes cast in 2020 than in the 2024 election. Where had these supposedly “missing” votes gone? Conspiracy theorists on both sides of the political spectrum began shouting claims of fraud. The answer, it turns out, is rather more straightforward. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Mix: Hal Haines Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
NOV 9

Do we have enough clothes for the next six generations?

A huge quantity of clothing is produced every year around the world. But is so much made that there are already enough tops, trousers, skirts and all the rest to clothe humanity for decades into the future? That’s a claim that has been percolating around the internet recently, that there are already enough clothes for the next six generations. Tim Harford and Beth Ashmead Latham explore the source of this claim and, with help from Sabina Lawreniuk from Nottingham University, find that the evidence behind it is far from persuasive. Presenter: Tim Harford and Bethan Ashmead Latham Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner Editor: Richard Vadon

10 min
NOV 2

What can economics learn from sport?

The great theories of economics seem to have great explanatory power, but the actual world is often far too complicated and messy to fully test them out. Professor Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, an economist at the London School of Economics has an answer – sport. In the contained setting of competitive sport, he says, the rules are clear and you know who is doing what. This means, with some analysis, you can see vibrant illustrations of well-known economic theories playing out before your eyes. Ignacio talks to Tim Harford about some of his favourite economic theories, demonstrated in action in sporting competition. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: John Scott Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min

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Season 6: The Bad Guru. A yoga school in London. A guru running from the police. How did Miranda get sucked in? Also: Al Fayed: Predator at Harrods. Women accuse Mohamed Al Fayed of rape. And: The Abercrombie Guys. Investigating sexual exploitation claims against the former CEO of fashion giant Abercrombie & Fitch. Delve into a World of Secrets: the global investigations podcast from the BBC. Uncovering stories around the world and telling them, episode by episode, with gripping storytelling. Latest season: The Bad Guru. A yoga school in London. A guru running from the police. How did Miranda get sucked in? Journalist Cat McShane investigates the international yoga movement headed by Gregorian Bivolaru, the spiritual guide arrested by French police in November 2023 and charged with human trafficking, organised kidnapping, rape and organised abuse of weakness by members of a sect. “Nobody joins a cult. You just get sucked in,” says Penny, the mother of a university tutor from London. In 2017, Penny’s daughter Miranda joins a yoga charity with studios in London and Oxford. The classes make Miranda feel amazing and the people make her feel loved. “There was this sense that these people cared,” says Miranda. But as Miranda becomes more deeply involved with the international yoga movement that her group in London is part of, her mother Penny starts to worry. “When she rang us, she'd be speaking in very hushed tones,” says Penny. Miranda has fallen under the spell of guru Gregorian Bivolaru. She joins thousands of his followers from around the world on a free holiday at a coastal resort in Romania. It’s part of a search for spiritual enlightenment which will see her driven through Paris blindfolded and doing sex work in Prague. This series includes explicit sexual content and strong language. Previous seasons of World of Secrets: Season 5: Finding Mr Fox. Investigating a plot to smuggle around a hundred millions of dollars’ worth of drugs from Brazil to Europe and the miscarriage of justice that followed. But where is the man Brazilian police believe to be at the centre of it all? Season 4: Al Fayed, Predator at Harrods. Egyptian billionaire Mohamed Al Fayed – then owner of Harrods, one of the most famous shops in the world – is accused of rape and attempted rape by women who worked for him. Now they refuse to be silenced any longer. Season 3: The Apartheid Killer. All the victims were black and the youngest was just 12 years old. Some relatives are still searching for the graves. They were killed during a three-year bloodbath in the 1980s, in the South African city of East London – by one person. He killed so many, he lost count. In piecing together this story, we expose the disturbed past and racial injustices of South Africa itself. Season 2: The Disciples. The cult of Nigerian prophet TB Joshua. A story of miracles, faith and manipulation, told by people from around the world, who gave up everything for one of the most powerful religious figures of the century. Lured by TB Joshua’s claimed healing powers, they live as disciples in a guarded Lagos compound, cut off from family and friends. Season 1: The Abercrombie Guys. An investigation into claims of sexual exploitation made against the former CEO of fashion giant Abercrombie & Fitch. He and his British partner were accused by several men, recruited for sex events they hosted around the world.

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744 Ratings

Not Dismal

Oct 27

takinite

The way ‘economics’ should be taught. However recently the FBI changed crime statistics up so mabe Trump was correct in the ‘debate’ such as it was. Thank you Mr Harford
US maternal mortality rates — not so utterly useless

Jul 1

Vladimir Brailovsky

Dear Mr Harfort, I am writing about your very interesting and solidly supported podcast —as is all the material you produce—on the US maternal-related mortality statistics,. You rightly conclude that the upward trend in the last two decades for the US results from a statistical mirage—the coverage of the more accurate new format proposed by the relevant international agency progressed piecemeal, one state at a time over two decades, accounting for the index's substantial growth. That is, the growth is only partly due to the improved accuracy of the new format and most probably due to the increasing temporal coverage of the sample. I put together a graph showing this, together with equivalent indices for the major European countries. (Unfortunately this format does not allow attaching a picture.) The graph shows a near-constant level over time for the latter and a marked increase in the American one, as you pointed out. However, you also conclude that US information is utterly worthless, and with this, I disagree. Although one should dismiss the growth trend, we cannot overlook the differential in the levels, which shows that even the lowest US figure (at the beginning of the period) is much higher than any other major advanced economy. Thus, in 2003, the US index, which supposedly underestimated mortality since the new format was not in place, was already about 50% higher than the highest European one. By the end of the period, when supposedly the US data becomes comparable to the European, it is 2.5 times as high. I think this finding is most revealing of the US's precarious, backward healthcare condition. And to this extent, it is not worthless.
“Math is hard”- but More or Less I love this show -Barbie

10/25/2023

PeterPottery

They ask the experts and that is so refreshing.
The cass review is a joke

May 5

musictycoon

It was revealed ahead of its release that some of those writing the report have direct links to a group that advocates for the practice of so-called ‘conversion therapy’ - something they didn't declare. Dr Hillary Cass herself met with 'Don't Say Gay' architect Ron De Santis stafferswho went on to ban trans healthcare in Florida - Trans Safety Network