The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche
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The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

  1. 3 DAYS AGO

    #235 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Disinflation Signs, Job Market Stress, and More Rate Cuts Than Expected

    Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 235 to discuss mounting signs of disinflation and labor market stress in early 2025. She points to falling rents, rising vacancy rates, and a wave of both private and public sector job cuts that could force more Fed rate cuts than markets expect. DiMartino Booth warns about the confluence of student loan delinquencies, credit stress, and potential disruption to passive investment flows as demographic shifts and job losses impact 401(k) contributions. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Links:   QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and introduction 1:10 Analysis of Fed minutes and debt ceiling impact 2:04 Discussion of Treasury general account and liquidity 3:50 MBS rolloff implications 5:18 Private sector layoffs and bankruptcies 8:20 Labor market conditions and Uber driver earnings 9:31 Initial jobless claims analysis and Fed outlook 11:23 Rent and housing market dynamics 13:36 Disinflationary trends and shelter costs 15:54 Student loan impact on credit scores 16:54 Housing market inventory and spring selling season 19:49 Senior housing opportunities 20:50 White collar recession analysis 23:50 Discussion of Doge savings and flat tax proposal 26:18 Potential stimulus impact on inflation 27:58 Passive investing risks and TSP analysis 32:01 Closing remarks

    35 min

  2. 5 DAYS AGO

    #234 Bill Fleckenstein: 'Doing Less Rather Than More' as Markets Enter Honeymoon Period | Gold's Strange Strength, Government Waste, and the Passive Bid Risk

    Bill Fleckenstein, founder and president of Fleckenstein Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 234 to discuss markets in 2025. He explains why he's waiting to see how new government initiatives play out before taking strong market positions, while maintaining significant precious metals exposure. Fleckenstein emphasizes that the passive bid remains "the elephant in the room" in markets, warns about government waste revelations, and explains why gold continues to show unexpected strength. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/ 0:00 Introduction and welcome 0:47 Big picture macro view and bond market analysis 7:17 Discussion of Social Security numbers and potential fraud 8:10 Market assessment and passive investing dynamics 9:40 Gold market analysis and central bank buying 15:01 Analysis of gold revaluation proposals 16:40 Debt discussion and DOGE initiatives 21:44 Bond market dynamics and 30-40 year cycles 24:16 Fed policy outlook and potential rate cuts 26:07 Economic impact of government workforce changes 28:26 Silver market outlook 31:00 Passive bid impact on markets 34:03 Dollar outlook and Japanese yen analysis 36:02 Concerns about government agency revelations 39:05 Warning to younger investors about passive investing 41:00 Discussion of market structure vs traditional bubbles 44:42 Closing remarks and contact information

    46 min

  3. FEB 14

    #233 Michael Pento: The Great Asset Bubble Reckoning is Coming, Why We Could See A 50% Correction

    Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche on episode 233 where he delivers a stark warning about the state of financial markets. Pento challenges Fed Chair Powell's recent victory lap on inflation, pointing out that prices have remained above the Fed's 2% target for nearly four years. He outlines his thesis for what he calls a "triumvirate of bubbles" in equities, real estate, and credit markets, explaining why these interconnected asset bubbles could lead to a market correction of at least 50%. Drawing on his 34 years of experience and proprietary 20-point liquidity model, Pento provides detailed evidence for his concerns while sharing insights on portfolio positioning, the impact of Trump 2.0, and potential solutions to America's mounting debt crisis. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: https://pentoport.com/ https://twitter.com/michaelpento 0:00 Intro and welcome Michael 0:43 Powell's congressional testimony & inflation criticism 3:02 Fed's $5T post-COVID liquidity & reverse repo facility 6:43 Warning of market bubbles 7:28 Evidence of equity bubble (Market cap to GDP, price to sales) 10:27 Credit bubble & private credit markets 11:24 Liquidity draining from system 13:08 Trump 2.0 impact on markets 14:37 Analyzing market liquidity (20-point model) 18:21 Future recession & $6T deficit concerns 19:41 Potential silver lining: Market reset 21:10 Fed's rate cut dilemma 23:10 Treasury gold revaluation discussion 25:56 Solutions to US debt crisis 28:44 Current portfolio strategy 31:51 Critique of passive investment industry 35:00 Closing thoughts & contact information

    38 min

  4. FEB 6

    #232 Ed Dowd: Why The Next Recession Is Different — The Coming Economic Reset in 2025

    Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 232 to his macro thesis for 2025 and beyond. Dowd explains why he believes the US economy was propped up by unsustainable factors under the Biden administration, and how a recession under Trump would actually be proof of a necessary economic restructuring in favor of the middle class. This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/ US Economy Outlook 2025: https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdward Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:34 Analyzing the unprecedented factors propping up the economy under Biden 03:14 Framing a recession as proof Trump is restructuring the economy for the middle class 05:03 How illegal immigration juiced the economy and will now reverse 07:28 Potential clash of fiscal priorities in Trump administration 09:03 Housing market correction expected as Fed-induced liquidity unwinds 11:18 Investors have the inflation story wrong, bond yields headed lower 13:12 Passive investing dominance a risk as markets turn 15:08 Recessions create generational opportunities for wealth transfer 16:11 AI bubble looks like dot-com infrastructure build-out before revenues 18:21 DeepSeek upending AI cost model, long-term bullish but near-term volatility 20:33 Gold's historical relationship with Fed rate cuts and dollar 23:24 Immigration's role in boosting money velocity and skewing economic data 26:55 Getting out of fiscal dominance to boost private investment 29:54 Using dry powder and dollar cost averaging in market downturns 32:40 Why a bond market dislocation would be fast but not necessarily a crash 35:47 Dollar strength not at risk, Treasury demand in recession 38:43 Expecting Fed cuts at or before March meeting, following T-bill market 41:24 Banks' unrealized losses shifting from duration to credit risk, CRE troubles 43:50 Doge's promising early progress on spending cuts, debt reduction 45:31 Housing transaction volumes slumping, a leading indicator 46:04 BoJ's Hobson's choice a key risk to watch, potential currency crisis 49:05 Strong dollar a sign of global dollar liquidity issues 51:23 Optimistic on government spending revelations and a potential "golden age" 53:24 Key takeaways - don't fear recession, creates opportunities, report details

    57 min

  5. FEB 4

    #231 Chris Whalen: Fed 'Playing Chicken' with Liquidity as High Debt Levels Persist, Balance Sheet Shrinks

    Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins Julia La Roche for episode 231 where he shares his perspective on the economic and market implications of President Trump's pivot back to 19th century-style tariffs. Whalen argues that while tariffs are unlikely to significantly slow the US economy, the Fed is "playing chicken" with liquidity levels as it unwinds its balance sheet amid soaring deficits. He warns of structural issues in the mortgage market stemming from pandemic-era policies, and expects a major housing reset in 2027-28. Whalen also discusses the Treasury's funding challenges, the Trump administration's likely tax policy priorities, risks lurking beneath buoyant markets, and the limits of mixed economic data for asset allocators. Tune in for an incisive discussion on navigating an increasingly uncertain investing landscape. Links:     Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/    Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/   Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:06 Trump taking us back to the 19th century with tariffs 03:14 Tariffs unlikely to slow down the US economy much 04:57 Fed erring on side of liquidity due to federal deficit, hasn't reduced reserves 06:27 Fed playing "chicken" with liquidity levels in the economy 08:03 Politics making Fed governors protective and reluctant to cut rates 09:45 Treasury's ebb and flow of cash and Fed's balance sheet runoff impacting liquidity 12:36 Fed's difficulty in determining minimum liquidity levels 13:43 Treasury Secretary Bessent inheriting Yellen's reliance on short-term T-bills 15:42 Appetite for longer-dated Treasuries depends on the coupon 17:49 Structural impediments in the mortgage market from QE during COVID 18:19 Taxes to be a big focus for Trump administration 19:51 Danger of relying on long-dated Treasury issuance to finance deficits 21:11 Strong liquidity masking underlying economic issues 22:44 Inflation likely here to stay given high debt levels 24:14 Expecting Fed rate cuts, mini boom, then major housing reset in 2027-28 25:55 Treasury Secretary Bessent named acting head of CFPB after firing Chopra 27:13 Stock market valuations stretched, risks from passive strategies selling 29:54 Trump likened to a disruptive Andrew Jackson, investors may seek safety 31:48 Mixed economic data making asset allocation challenging

    32 min

  6. JAN 30

    #230 Danielle DiMartino Booth On Labor Market Cracks, Recession Signals, and Why We'll Likely See A March Rate Cut

    Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 230 for an in-person Fed day analysis following the January FOMC meeting. She breaks down Powell's press conference, newly released 2019 Fed transcripts, and signals of labor market weakness that official numbers might miss. DiMartino Booth explains why the Fed's shift to market-based inflation metrics could accelerate rate cuts, while warning about mounting evidence of job market deterioration hidden beneath headline numbers. A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Links:   QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 0:00 Opening discussion on disinflationary pressures 1:09 Analysis of 2019 Fed transcripts and global trade impact 3:13 Discussion of Conference Board data and labor market signals 8:56 Analysis of rental market dynamics and Fed's new inflation metrics 17:36 Housing market analysis and renter dynamics 18:28 Impact of tariffs on economy and growth 21:54 Release timing of Fed transcripts and messaging 23:16 Current state of economy and job market analysis 28:54 Federal employee buyouts and workforce implications 34:11 Evolution of layoff reporting and gig economy impact 38:54 Discussion of fiscal policy mechanisms and inflation 41:30 Analysis of potential government efficiency measures 47:00 AI impact on markets and tech valuations 50:57 Societal shifts in spending habits and debt management 54:22 Closing remarks and where to find her work

    54 min

  7. JAN 28

    #229 David Woo: DeepSeek's Massive Macro Implications, Trump 2.0 Challenges, and Top Trade Ideas

    Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound, joins Julia La Roche on episode 228 in a two-part interview. On Monday, he rejoined to provide analysis on China's DeepSeek AI breakthrough and the massive macro implications. On Friday, he provided a deep dive into Trump's second term strategy and the global chess moves, from US-China negotiations to the crucial role of Mexico in border security. In Part 1, Woo discusses how DeepSeek's AI model from China has impacted markets, with the NASDAQ down 3% and Nvidia dropping over 16%. He examines how this development challenges US tech monopolies' dominance and what this means for US economic exceptionalism and tech sector valuations. In Part 2, Woo analyzes the challenges facing Trump's second term, particularly regarding fiscal policy and the extension of the 2017 tax cuts. He highlights the critical role of the Freedom Caucus, which holds significant power with Republicans' one-seat majority in the House. The discussion covers several key areas: The potential alliance between the Freedom Caucus and Elon Musk on fiscal policy Mexico's proactive approach to border security and trade relations Contrasting positions of Mexico and Canada on trade negotiations The complexities of the TikTok situation and potential solutions US-China relations and the possibility of returning to the Phase One trade agreement Investment opportunities in Chinese equities, the Mexican peso, and 5-year US Treasuries Links: Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound Part 1: DeepSeek Discussion 0:00 Intro with David Woo 1:02 DeepSeek's impact on markets and US tech dominance 3:13 Analysis of US market capitalization growth 5:47 Discussion of US tech monopolies and cloud computing 7:14 DeepSeek's challenge to US AI dominance 9:09 Market reaction to DeepSeek's test results 11:15 Impact on technology monetization 12:17 Conclusion Part 2 12:30 Introduction 13:21 Trump administration challenges 21:21 Freedom Caucus and fiscal policy 34:25 Trump's foreign policy approach 36:49 TikTok situation analysis 41:44 US-China trade relations 43:40 Trump's 2017 China visit story 46:03 Chinese market investment outlook 49:10 Mexico vs Canada analysis 56:10 US Treasury market outlook 59:13 Closing thoughts

    1h 14m

  8. JAN 23

    #228 Steve Hanke: 'It's Going To Be A Year Of Investing Dangerously' — Bubble Detector At Highest Levels

    Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 227 to shares his outlook for the US economy and financial markets in 2025. Applying his famed "quantity theory of money," Professor Hanke warns that the economy is set to slow this year due to the lagged effects of past monetary and fiscal policies. He cautions that it's "going to be a year of investing dangerously," with his proprietary bubble detector signaling that markets are extremely overvalued and complacent, reaching the highest levels ever. Hanke also discusses the risks posed by runaway government debt, advocates for right-sizing government's role in the economy, and shares his latest books and research. Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hanke Capital, Interest, and Waiting: Controversies, Puzzles, and New Additions to Capital Theory https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-63398-0 Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260 https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/making-money-work-matt-sekerke/1146170520 Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:11 Macro outlook using quantity theory of money 03:38 Impact of Fed policy on asset prices, inequality, and inflation 07:06 How Fed-driven inequality influenced 2024 election outcome 10:43 China's economic troubles and deflationary risks 13:28 Europe's economic stagnation and fiscal woes 15:38 Likelihood of a recession in 2025 under the new administration 17:36 Parallels to the Reagan era and smart economic policies 20:32 Concerns about Trump's mercantilist trade policies and border control plans 23:43 Hanke's bubble detector signaling overvalued, complacent markets 26:46 Runaway US national debt - the lying price problem and moral hazard 30:06 Restoring confidence and implementing a constitutional debt brake 32:00 Right-sizing government to boost economic growth 33:53 Simplifying taxes with a flat tax 35:48 Hanke's latest books and how to follow his work

    36 min
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About

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Information

  • Creator
    Julia La Roche
  • Years Active
    2022 - 2025
  • Episodes
    236
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Julia La Roche
  • Show Website
    The Julia La Roche Show

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