The IRF Podcast

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The IRF Podcast

Insights from some of the world's top independent investment research providers spanning a range of countries, asset classes and themes.

  1. 6 DAYS AGO

    “Asset Allocation to Survive an Exciting 2025”, Callum Thomas, Topdown Charts

    In this podcast, Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts compares the current global interest rate cycle with the 3 previous ones. He points out what is different this time and what that might mean for the length and depth of this cycle. Callum then assesses the prospects for a reacceleration of economic growth and the associated risk of a resurgence in the rate of inflation. He discusses the implications of higher government bond yields for equity markets and other assets. Callum also compares Trump 2.0 and the current situation with the period in 2016 when Trump was first elected president and notes some important differences from an investment perspective. Callum concludes with an assessment of some of the main actionable risks and opportunities in the financial markets, as well as highlighting his underweight and overweight recommendations for active investors in the multi-asset universe. ----more---- Callum Thomas founded Topdown Charts in 2016, after a distinguished career in multi-asset investment management in New Zealand and Australia. Based in New Zealand, Topdown Charts provides data-driven primary research across a broad global macro and multi-asset universe. A key belief at Topdown Charts is that any factor, and usually multiple factors, should be used in the art of generating investment insights, particularly when extremes are detected e.g. extremes in valuation, emotion / sentiment, positioning, price movement, etc.

    23 min

  2. 6 DAYS AGO

    "Global Economy and Capital Markets; the end of Business as Usual", Paul Hodges, New Normal Consulting

    Paul Hodges, Founder of New Normal Consulting draws on over 30 years of experience in the chemicals, energy and IT industries to outline the most likely scenarios in the wake of the recent US Presidential election, asking to what extent Donald Trump will be able to implement his stated agenda given the secular forces at work in the global economy. ----more---- Hodges sets the scene through his analysis of how demographic trends will impact supply and demand through the major developed economies, along with the major secular changes facing key industries such as chemicals and energy. Against a backdrop of widespread overcapacity and declining demand, Trump's proposals for tariffs even if only partially implemented, will accelerate the reversion to 'local for local' supply chains with unpredictable consequences for investors, who are already grappling with very high levels of valuations, most notably in the US equity market.

    50 min

  3. NOV 13

    China 2025: Stimulus Meets Debt-Deflation and Global Headwinds, Brian McCarthy, Macrolens

    Brian highlighted significant concerns about the Chinese economy, emphasising that its investment-led growth model is collapsing, with a real estate crisis leading to multi-trillion-dollar losses and debt deflation risks. He expressed scepticism about the effectiveness of anticipated stimulus measures, noting that while they may provide temporary support, they are unlikely to fundamentally change the economic trajectory. Brian pointed out structural issues such as unsustainable debt levels, reliance on central planning, and weak profit growth, making Chinese equities unattractive. He concluded that without meaningful policy changes or abandoning the currency peg, China faces prolonged economic stagnation, akin to Japan's deflationary period, and recommended caution in investing in Chinese markets.

    1h 2m

  4. OCT 29

    The Budget - In Reeves we Trust? Helen Thomas, Blonde Money

    Helen Thomas of Blonde Money presents a three-part analysis of Rachel Reeves’ budget approach, focusing on her ideological foundations, probable budget content, and projected market impact. Thomas examines Reeves’ underlying ideology, shaped by a socialist perspective highlighted in her Mais lecture, where Reeves critiques modern capitalism's failure to enhance growth, democratic engagement, and living standards. Reeves’ outlook distances her from Tony Blair's New Labour approach, which she deems insufficiently bold in addressing labour market insecurity. As a result, her budget framework aims for broader structural change while appeasing both the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and Labour’s diverse coalition.

    55 min

  5. OCT 24

    Emerging Markets - The Myth that Failed? Manoj Pradhan - Talking Heads Macro; Jon Anderson - Emerging Advisors Group & JP Smith - IRF

    We hosted a group call on “Investing in Emerging Markets” with Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro and Jon Anderson, Emerging Advisors Group and JP Smith. JP kicked off the session by advocating for nuanced investment strategies and skilled active management rather than viewing EMs as a single asset class. Manoj argued that significant stress often drives reform, as seen in India. He highlighted Brazil's resilience and identified specific opportunities in India, Indonesia, and South Africa, cautioning against blanket investment strategies. Jon noted that while China’s GDP growth has been substantial, equity returns remain low due to share dilution. He highlighted potential opportunities from excessive domestic liquidity, framing China as a volatile, high-reward market amidst a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.

    1h 21m

  6. OCT 20

    “Japan: A Safe Haven In A Troubled World?”, Tobias Harris, Japan Foresight

    In this podcast Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight discusses the political situation in Japan and the potential impact of the new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishida. Tobias then considers the various geopolitical concerns that Japan faces in the Northeast Asian region and the wider world. In particular, he assesses the potential impact of sharply higher crude oil prices on the Japanese economy if the military conflict in the Middle East escalates further. Tobias also reviews the scope for the Japanese government to adjust economic policy, with reference to both the monetary and fiscal policy outlook. In addition, he assesses the demographic trends that are impacting on the longer-term outlook for the economy and Japanese society.

    18 min

  7. SEP 13

    "Contrarian Alert: Why the Chinese Yuan Could Strengthen", Diana Choyleva, Enodo Economics

    In this podcast Diana Choyleva explains the reasons for her contrarian call on the near-term outlook for the Chinese currency. She discusses the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy, particularly those in the property sector, and assesses the overall effectiveness of the government’s economic policies. In addition, Diana highlights the geopolitical factors that are now hampering China’s economic development, not least the threat of potential military action against the neighbouring island of Taiwan. She also assesses the investment opportunities in the Chinese bond and stock markets, particularly from the viewpoint of international investors in what is becoming a more bifurcated world. In conclusion Diana considers how the economic developments in China are impacting on the rest of the world, especially with respect to the global commodity markets. Track record page - https://bit.ly/4gcJJ60 Diana’s X profile – https://bit.ly/3X7pKgB

    31 min

  8. SEP 8

    “The Return of 1980s Currency Volatility”, Andrew Hunt, Andrew Hunt Economics

    In this podcast Andrew Hunt discusses in detail the key underlying monetary trends in the main Western economies and explains why he expects a new era of lower interest rates and greater currency volatility as the post-Plaza world crumbles. After an assessment of the outlook for the US economy and financial markets, Andrew considers the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy and how these will impact on the rest of the world. In Europe, Andrew reviews the diverse economic factors in various countries and assesses the implications for the conduct of monetary policy by the ECB and by the Bank of England.   Andrew Hunt is a former Chief International Economist at Dresdner RCM Global Investors. In 2001 he set up his own company, Andrew Hunt Economics, to provide economic commentary and insight on the major issues of the day to hedge funds, mainstream asset managers, family offices, non-financial companies and the management of major banks.

    18 min
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About

Insights from some of the world's top independent investment research providers spanning a range of countries, asset classes and themes.

Information

  • Creator
    irfpodcast
  • Years Active
    2020 - 2024
  • Episodes
    93
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2020 All rights reserved.
  • Show Website
    The IRF Podcast

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