FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

4.5 (20K)
POLITICS
UPDATED WEEKLY

The 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

5 DAYS AGO

Campaign Throwback: 'Soccer Moms'

This is the second installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. In our second installment: "soccer moms." In 1992, Bill Clinton won the presidential election in what was called the "year of the woman" after a record number of women ran for office and won. As the 1996 election took shape, gender politics were still at the forefront of campaign coverage. As Clinton’s popularity was growing and Republican Bob Dole was lagging in the early polls, the idea took hold that “soccer moms” might either save Dole’s chances or ensure that Clinton made it over the edge. But when the election was all said and done, was that conventional wisdom correct? This episode originally aired in May. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

30 min
12/23/2024

Campaign Throwback: 'The Economy, Stupid'

This is the first installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. Our first installment: “It’s the economy, stupid.” It's a trope that dates back to Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign. Clinton's chief strategist at the time, James Carville, had three main messages for his staff to remember: 1) Change vs. more of the same 2) The economy, stupid, and 3) Don't forget about healthcare. The second message was memorialized in a 1993 documentary about the Clinton campaign called "The War Room," and has taken on a life of its own in the field of election analysis. But is it accurate? This episode originally aired in May. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

26 min
12/19/2024

What We're Putting In Our 2024 Time Capsule

What would you save to remember 2024 in politics? In the second part of our end-of-year series on the 538 Politics podcast, the crew builds a time capsule to capture the political essence of the year. From a Dean Phillips bumper sticker to President-elect Donald Trump’s 16-page indictment and the 538 polling average, they debate what deserves to be preserved. Plus, a discussion on the looming government shutdown. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

43 min
12/16/2024

Our 2024 Superlatives

How do you measure a year? In votes cast? Money spent? Or in “seasons of love”? On this end-of-2024 installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tries to find out by making a yearbook and assigning superlatives. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

43 min
12/12/2024

What Happens To Trump's Legal Cases Now?

Earlier this year, as President-elect Donald Trump mounted his campaign to return to the presidency, it seemed like one of the biggest barriers to his election would be the battery of criminal and civil cases that had been filed against him. Now, as we near Trump’s inauguration day, what will happen to them? Law professor and former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth joins the podcast to unpack the fate of the legal cases against Trump. She provides clarity on the status of the major cases, discusses the potential impact of the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling on Trump’s presidency, and examines President Joe Biden’s use of the pardon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

40 min
12/09/2024

A Topsy-Turvy Week In Review

What even happened last week?! On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew catches Galen up as he returns from a rare week away from his push notifications. They take a look at President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet picks, the status of House Republicans’ slim majority, and examine the polling on President Joe Biden’s controversial pardon of his son Hunter. They also turn an eye to foreign affairs, checking in on recent developments in South Korea and Syria. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

33 min
12/05/2024

Your Post-Election Questions, Answered

In this post-election mailbag episode, the crew tackles your burning questions about the 2024 election. Why did Democrats have lower turnout than four years ago? Is misinformation skewing some voters’ view of reality? Did Harris lose because of her candidacy and campaign style, or due to the broader political environment? And where does post-election voter data even come from, anyways? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

49 min
12/02/2024

The 2026 Midterms Are Only 701 Days Away

Galen is out today, so 538’s Nathaniel Rakich steps in to guide the crew through the numbers. They unpack President Joe Biden’s surprise decision to pardon his son Hunter, exploring the historical context for such a move and how it might resonate with the American public. They also turn their attention to the 2026 midterm elections, analyzing the prospects for both the House and Senate. They discuss whether Republicans can hang on to their trifecta, and examine the challenges Democrats face in their efforts to reclaim control of Congress. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

40 min

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4.5

out of 5

19,629 Ratings

Delightfully Soporific

11/14/2024

Boopboop22

I don’t think I’ve ever reached the end of one of these podcasts while still conscious, & I mean that in the best way possible. It’s the most reliable way to put me to sleep(people speak at a calm, even pace, on the same predictable topic, and the audio stays at about the same level, regardless of who’s talking). I haven’t learned a single thing from this podcast cuz I’m asleep within the first 20 minutes, and I’m so grateful for that.
To. Snarky

12/28/2024

Hrvu719/$hane

The commentary by Galen and his panel regrettably is NOT unaligned. It is decidedly partisan in its presentation. This is especially frustrating in that objective, scientific polls present the opportunity to share objective information. Unfortunately Galen and many (most?) of his panelists delight in snarky partisan commentary that prejudge too many voters. This pod might win 5 stars but as currently produced does not rise above average predictability in the way it delivers results. Too bad!
so so

12/17/2024

Obi-Wan '15

nerdy but smart nerds know polls are lazy and weak stat anyways. cool nerds don’t listen to the pontificators of this show or it’s gambling addicted founder.
Used to love this show

11/26/2024

Sarah Felice

I used to love this show. I have been to multiple live shows, I have submitted two questions for model talk and they both were answered on the show, but these days I’m finding the show to be unlistenable. Hope this is just an awkward transition post Nate.