Schiff Sovereign Podcast

James Hickman
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Schiff Sovereign Podcast

James Hickman is a West Point graduate and former intelligence officer who has had an extensive business and investment career spanning more than 25 years. James has traveled to 120+ countries on all 7 continents, and he has started, invested in, and acquired businesses all over the world, in sectors ranging from technology to agriculture to banking. Since he originally began writing under the pen name “Simon Black” back in 2007, James has accurately predicted many of the major trends and events of our time, including the West’s enormous debt bubble, inflation, bank failures, social unrest, and more. Read more at www.schiffsovereign.com

  1. 11H AGO

    Forget about AI: America is about to be the world leader in socks and underwear [Podcast]

    Governments love to tell you tariffs are about "protection". But protection from what? More affordable goods? A higher quality of life? In today’s podcast, we dig into the many, many unforeseen consequences of the new tariff policies. For example: * Examples from countries where I’ve lived which have heavy tariffs and import duties— and how those countries are vastly worse off as a result. Their citizens are poorer and less prosperous. That’s because taxing something always leads to less of it... which ultimately means a decline in standards of living. Hooray tariffs!! * They just slapped some of the highest tariffs on products the US doesn’t even make— like socks from Vietnam or underwear from Bangladesh. Do they really want America to be a ‘socks and underwear economy’? Is this really the future of economic growth? * And even if so, where are they going to get the workers to staff those factories? Are America’s 20-year olds, who, heretofore have been posting butt-selfies on Instagram for a living, really going to put down their iPhones to go work in factories making socks and underwear? * Plus there are painfully obvious reasons why American-made goods will become more expensive... due to tariffs on raw materials. * We can’t imagine how big the customs bureaucracy will become to enforce tariffs... let alone the complexity and confusion, when, say, a Swiss-owned vessel sailing under a Panamanian flag crewed by Danes and Filipinos carries chromite from Zimbabwe, granite from Mozambique, and graphite from Tanzania into a US port... * And then there’s the golden opportunity that tariffs give China to assert global leadership. April 2, 2025 may be the date that future historians mark as the day American dominance ended. * Why tariffs are just the first phase... and how this escalates from trade wars, to capital controls... loss of visa-free travel, cyber attacks, and more. You can listen in here. https://youtu.be/CLc4XAiSO4E You can access the podcast transcript here.

    31 min

  2. 3D AGO

    If tomorrow is “Liberation Day”, today is “Rational Day” [Podcast]

    Tomorrow is being billed as Liberation Day— where tariffs will supposedly free America from those pesky, parasitic foreign markets. But what’s actually going to happen? This is the subject of today’s podcast. We discuss: * How odd it is that no Liberation Day details have leaked... which makes us wonder if there actually are any plans or details to leak. * If this administration truly believes tariffs are so obviously great for the economy, why would they wait until now instead of doing it day one, as they did with so many other executive actions? * What might actually unfold, and what it means for markets that are already jittery. * Questions any rational investor should ask themselves about their goals— for example, are you speculating on share price, or investing in a company’s long term prospects? * Will tariffs make successful companies immediately and permanently less valuable? To answer these questions, we bring up examples of well managed, value companies we present to our investment research subscribers, particularly undervalued real asset businesses. One example’s entire market valuation is less than the cash it has in the bank. Plus it’s profitable and pays a dividend. Finally, we discuss: * The long shot scenario of what would need to occur for tariffs to actually work as intended. * The very plausible scenario that America could become a manufacturing powerhouse again—not thanks to tariffs, but technology. * The surprising company we identify which likely stands to gain the most from this AI/ automation/ robotics boom. If tomorrow is “Liberation Day,” then today is the day to be rational. I encourage you to give it a listen. https://youtu.be/jNUtSydVBsw (Podcast transcript is available to you here.)

    37 min

  3. MAR 27

    Here’s how the US might force foreign nations into submission

    On June 8, 1974, President Richard Nixon dispatched Treasury Secretary William Simon and his deputy to Saudi Arabia in an attempt to strike one of the most critical—and secretive—economic deals in modern history. Three years earlier, in August 1971, Nixon had severed the final link between the US dollar and gold, officially ending the Bretton Woods system. That meant foreign governments could no longer redeem their dollars for gold, effectively turning the dollar into a pure fiat currency backed by nothing but political promises. After Nixon’s move, the US could effectively ‘print’ and spend as much money as it wanted—something that Congress enthusiastically embraced. Inflation soared, confidence in the dollar plummeted, and foreign countries began dumping dollars as a result. So Washington hatched a plan. The mission to Riyadh was a covert, high-stakes operation to engineer artificial demand for the dollar. They went to convince Saudi Arabia— the world’s largest oil producer— to sell its oil exports exclusively in US dollars. In return, the US would offer military protection, political support, and access to sophisticated weaponry. It was the birth of the petrodollar. Pretty much every country on earth was buying oil from Saudi Arabia. And if Saudi Arabia was only selling oil in US dollars, it meant that every country on earth had to continue to own US dollars... and by extension, continue buying US government bonds. This arrangement has continued for half a century and allowed the US to run massive deficits, ‘print’ money at will, and export inflation around the globe—all while maintaining an illusion of monetary stability. Today, there is once again grumbling around the world about reliance on the US and its currency. Even allies like France and Germany are actively working on diversifying out of the US dollar and investing their savings at home, rather than buying more US government bonds. In response, the Trump administration seems intent on resetting the global financial system and almost forcing foreign countries to continue holding US debt; insiders within the administration refer to it as the ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’, and given the ongoing tariff announcements, it appears they are actually putting the idea into action. I wrote about this earlier in the week: this is an extremely high-risk gamble. But there’s one thing the US has going for it... a way to ‘engineer’ demand for US dollars and encourage foreigners to buy US government debt. Back in the 1970s, the need for oil forced foreign nations to continue owning US dollars. The oil of today is technology. And foreign nations will most likely line up to get their hands on US technology. The US is still the leader in advancements like AI and high performance computing, quantum, other advanced semi-conductor technologies, robotics, small scale nuclear, and more. Obviously other countries possess some of this technology; China still leads in supercomputing and has plenty of its own AI. But much of the core infrastructure— especially advanced semiconductors— is dominated by the United States. This is potentially an advantage that the US government might exploit (through export controls and more) in order to force foreigners to continue owning dollars... and Treasury bonds. This is the topic of our podcast today— and we also discuss: * How the Mar-A-Lago Accord is an enormous gamble * What happens to the US dollar if the gamble doesn’t pay off * How they’re also might plan on dismantling Federal Reserve independence * A 1960s-era economist’s view on why the reserve currency is doomed * Peter Schiff’s father Irwin,

    1h 6m

  4. MAR 18

    It’s the Difference Between $70 and $140 Million [Podcast]

    A few years ago, I was at a private conference listening to a CEO of a silver mining company explain—quite matter-of-factly—how silver prices were being manipulated. He laid out the whole playbook: how major Wall Street traders would flood the market with short positions in paper silver, drive the price down, and simultaneously accumulate physical silver at rock-bottom prices. Then, once they’d cornered enough physical supply, they’d let prices rise, selling into the momentum they themselves created. It was a textbook case of market manipulation—illegal, unethical, but enormously profitable. But what stuck with me wasn’t the CEO’s explanation. It was the reaction of some of the "finance elite" in the room. A few of them scoffed. You could practically see them rolling their eyes. Manipulate silver? Why would anyone bother? They arrogantly dismissed the notion outright. Fast forward a couple of years, and guess what happened? JP Morgan paid a nearly $1 billion fine for precisely this kind of manipulation. Several traders went to prison. Turns out, the “conspiracy theory” was, in fact, reality. The reason why it happened is because it could happen. Silver is a small enough market where a few large players can force those kind of price fluctuations. And to me, that is the primary reason why we likely won’t see a sustained run up in silver prices. Gold has now hit $3,000 per ounce. So could speculation drive silver to ridiculous heights? Absolutely. The Wall Street traders might even pull the reverse of what they did last time and intentionally drive prices up. But there is a key difference between silver and gold-- gold has an obvious catalyst for higher prices: central banks are buying up gold literally by the metric ton in their efforts to diversify away from the US dollar. The silver market, on the other hand, is simply too small to absorb that amount of capital. Gold also provides central banks with the best wealth density to easily store vast fortunes of value. Think about it like this— a barrel of oil is worth about $70. If you fill up that same barrel with silver, you’d have about $1.5 million of value. But fill it up with gold and suddenly it’s worth about $140 million! In other words, gold is the one of the most ‘dense’ forms of wealth in existence... and that’s the primary reason why central banks are loading up on it, instead of silver. We discuss all this in today’s podcast, as well as another precious metal that central bankers might consider accumulating— and it’s not silver. We also talk about what gold’s latest milestone means, if investors are too late to the party, and some alternative ways to gain exposure to what will likely be a continuing run up in gold prices. One of those alternatives is investments in profitable, well-managed precious metals companies which are at the moment incredibly undervalued. That’s because central banks are buying gold, not gold companies. The last three precious metals companies that we showcased in our 4th Pillar investment research newsletter fit this exact criteria, and are up 27%, 21%, and 40% respectively. We still think this is a very sensible approach worth considering. You can listen here. https://youtu.be/-KNn7mYehr8 Also, you can access the transcript of this video, here.

    50 min

  5. MAR 11

    Is the US Headed Toward Recession? [Podcast]

    By the late 1920s, the US economy was booming and had advantages that most of the world did not yet enjoy. Manufacturing in America was extremely competitive due to mass electrification powering factories. Farmers had traded out horses and mules for trucks and tractors. US productivity was surging. Global trade was still recovering from World War I, but there was enough sense at the League of Nations (the precursor to the United Nations) to campaign against trade barriers. The final report from the World Economic Conference in 1927 concluded that “the time has come to put an end to tariffs. . .” But America decided to move in the opposite direction. Two politicians, Willis Hawley and Reed Smoot put forth a plan to impose steep tariffs that reached as high as 59.1% on some products. The infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act passed in 1930, and almost immediately, countries around the world imposed their own retaliatory tariffs against the US. Global trade plummeted as a result, which became a major factor in prolonging an almost never-ending and extremely painful economic depression. I don’t think another Great Depression is in the cards right now, but frankly all these threats of tariffs are starting to have an impact. Stock market investors are realizing that a recession is clearly on the table, and that business and consumer sentiment across the board have taken a nose dive. That could all rebound just as quickly as it has fallen, but the larger point is that tariffs will absolutely make the country, and the world for that matter, much worse off. The key reason is that tariffs force the economy to operate below its maximum potential. Think about it on an individual basis. Imagine if Tom Cruise were sacking groceries instead of making movies. I think most people would probably acknowledge that creating multi-billion dollar box office hits is a hard thing to do, and sacking groceries would be below his potential. The same goes for a trained and experienced neurosurgeon— picking turnips is not the best use of his or her time. The US economy is certainly capable of producing just about anything. But there’s no point in deliberately producing below your potential— i.e. taking scarce talent and resources away from more valuable more productive sectors, and instead focusing that energy to make socks and underwear. If an economy consistently underachieves its potential, everyone is worse off as a result— regardless of whether that results in a near-term recession. The US has the potential in small-scale nuclear reactors, and emerging technology in AI, automation, robotics, and high-performance computing to create a level of abundance and prosperity that is almost unimaginable. That advantage is specific to the United States and that reality could be just a few years away because most of that technology exists or is close. And that’s what the US needs to get out of its $36 trillion debt problem— a productivity and innovation driven economic boom. Tariffs throw cold water on the whole thing. This is what we discuss in today’s podcast. We also touch on: * Recent stock market swings * The valuation of stocks now, and historically * Who is investing in the stock market today * What could drive investors into bonds * And more. You can listen here. https://youtu.be/gisCd7pMpS8 (The podcast transcript is available to you here.)

    57 min

  6. MAR 5

    The Controlled Demolition of the US Dollar’s Reserve Status [Podcast]

    Even during the darkest moments of the Biden administration—the shameful withdrawal from Afghanistan, 9% inflation, bureaucrats hell-bent on destroying the economy—I still said America’s problems were fixable. But I didn’t see any hope in the previous administration or a prospective Kamala administration to fix things and only expected them to grow worse. We’re now a month and a half into a new administration, and it’s fair to say some things are going very well. There are others that, depending on your view, are not. One big concern I have is that no one is interested in reforming Social Security—a massive entitlement program whose own trustees say will run out of money over the next several years. This is a gargantuan financial crisis in the making, a ticking time bomb that no one wants to touch. Depending on your priorities, foreign relations are also on the list of concerns. If you're more isolationist, you might think that the unwinding of relationships and alliances is no big deal—that the world needs America more than America needs the world. But there are consequences to that... $28 trillion of US government debt is coming due over the next four years, and a lot of that is owned by foreign governments and central banks. The Treasury Department needs these players to go along and reinvest—not only in America but specifically in US government bonds. And if relationships are too fractured, they might not be willing to do that. That could create an enormous fiscal crisis that would most likely result in a lot of inflation. It also puts into question the US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency, which it has enjoyed for more than 80 years. The reality, however, is that while the short-term consequences of losing reserve status could be profound, in the long term, reserve currency status is not a requirement for economic prosperity. There are plenty of countries around the world—Taiwan, Singapore, Switzerland, etc.—that are prosperous nations and do not have the global reserve currency. In some respects, reserve status is a huge benefit, but also a bit of a handcuff. In today’s podcast episode, we explore what we call the “controlled demolition” of America’s reserve status—a way for America to potentially remain powerful yet lose that reserve status. That could be the outcome over the next four years. And today, we discuss the paths and consequences of that scenario. Spoiler Alert: It’s probably good for gold, and possibly crypto too. https://youtu.be/64rBPmknUZQ (You can access this video's transcript here.)

    1h 13m

  7. FEB 27

    The Latest Bad Premise Could Be a Disaster for the US Dollar [Podcast]

    On October 20, 2022, Liz Truss resigned as UK prime minister after just 44 days in office—the shortest tenure in British history. She was brought down not by a no-confidence vote or a party coup, but by a full-scale bond market rebellion. Her government’s proposed mini-budget, featuring sweeping tax cuts, triggered a historic sell-off in UK government bonds (gilts), sending yields soaring and the pound crashing. As panic spread, the Bank of England was forced to intervene to prevent a financial meltdown, and with markets, party members, and the public losing faith, Truss’s premiership collapsed. Such is the fate of governments when they don’t control the global reserve currency. The US government should heed this warning. But it seems more likely to barrel ahead with the false premise: America will always remain THE dominant global superpower that can do whatever it wants. That’s the subject of today’s podcast. We discuss these types of false premises— Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, it will take just two weeks to stop the spread of COVID— mistakes that over and over cost the US trillions of dollars. And nowhere is this more egregious today than in the idea that the US dollar will remain the reserve currency, whatever the US does to push other countries away. We talk about how a series of laws has escalated the weaponization of the US dollar, starting with the PATRIOT Act in 2001, then FATCA in 2010, and the freezing of Russia’s US assets in 2022. Now, the Mar-A-Lago Accord is being floated, which includes an idea to strong-arm US allies into swapping their US Treasuries for 100-year, non-tradeable, zero-coupon bonds. After all, the argument goes, the US provides defense for much of the world, it is only right that other nations should pay for it in some way. But we discuss why this is such a bad idea, and how it will only push countries into finding alternatives for the US dollar, robbing the US of its power to influence global affairs with the currency, and stripping the US dollar of much of its demand, and therefore value. You can listen to the full podcast here. https://youtu.be/s9hQU9w5QWw

    38 min

  8. FEB 25

    America’s $36 trillion national debt is just the tip of a $100+ trillion iceberg [Podcast]

    We write a lot about the US government’s dismal financial condition— $36.2 trillion in debt, $1.1 trillion in annual interest expenses, and a $1.8 trillion annual deficit. But in today’s podcast we take a closer look at the numbers and the government’s actual balance sheet as if it were a business, including all of its assets and liabilities. The government doesn’t just have debt. Offsetting that debt is a pretty substantial pile of cash, financial assets, and other resources like land or gold. Some of these assets are significantly undervalued and worth trillions of dollars more than what the government reports. So we dove into the numbers today to determine what the government’s actual “net worth” is, i.e. if you add up all the assets and subtract the liabilities (including the debt). Spoiler Alert: Uncle Sam’s net worth is horrifically bad... on the order of MINUS $100 TRILLION. In other words, according to their own financial report, the situation is much worse than just the $36+ trillion debt. And it really needs to be addressed immediately. We’ve been writing for a couple of years that there is a very, very narrow window of opportunity to put the US government’s finances back on the right track. And there are few signs right now which appear to be helpful. But other developments are frustratingly counterproductive... and even destructive. Restoring confidence is a HUGE part of America’s recovery... and, let’s be honest, this administration isn’t helping restore confidence when it threatens allies with tariffs, or blames Ukraine for being invaded. It takes us back to what we wrote yesterday regarding Warren Buffett’s somber admonishment: maintaining a sound currency “requires both wisdom and vigilance,” and based on what we’re seeing right now, that’s far from a forgone conclusion. Click below to listen in to today’s episode. https://youtu.be/f1-1X29_cO4

    52 min
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    About

    James Hickman is a West Point graduate and former intelligence officer who has had an extensive business and investment career spanning more than 25 years. James has traveled to 120+ countries on all 7 continents, and he has started, invested in, and acquired businesses all over the world, in sectors ranging from technology to agriculture to banking. Since he originally began writing under the pen name “Simon Black” back in 2007, James has accurately predicted many of the major trends and events of our time, including the West’s enormous debt bubble, inflation, bank failures, social unrest, and more. Read more at www.schiffsovereign.com

    Information

    • Creator
      James Hickman
    • Years Active
      2014 - 2025
    • Episodes
      100
    • Rating
      Clean
    • Copyright
      © All rights reserved
    • Show Website
      Schiff Sovereign Podcast

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