The Downballot

David Nir & David Beard
  • 4.7 (136)
  • POLITICS
  • UPDATED WEEKLY
The Downballot

The Downballot podcast is dedicated to the thousands of elections below the presidency, from Senate to city council. With more than 20 years of experience analyzing U.S. elections, we provide unparalleled insight into congressional, state, and local races nationwide. Tune in every Thursday morning for one-of-a-kind coverage of these key contests. www.the-downballot.com

  1. The best Dem election night in ages

    1D AGO

    The best Dem election night in ages

    Tuesday night was a massive triumph for the forces of democracy, from coast to coast and up and down the ballot. We're recapping all of the action in this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, starting with Wisconsin's marquee race for the state Supreme Court and the very real possibility that Elon Musk's aggressive intrusion into the contest wound up helping Susan Crawford preserve liberals' narrow majority. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also examine the huge Democratic overperformances in two ruby-red Florida House districts, which show that Republicans were right to fear losing Elise Stefanik's seat in a special election. But that's not all: Democrats racked up big wins in a wide range of other races (Omaha! Aurora! Winnebago!), all of which the Davids recap. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

    41 min
  2. The wildest Dem special election win … so far

    MAR 27

    The wildest Dem special election win … so far

    The crazy flips just keep on coming! On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard drill down into James Malone's astonishing victory in Tuesday's special election in Pennsylvania—one that saw him capture a seat Democrats had never held. They also preview next week's races in Florida, where Republicans are suddenly sweating another special election, and, of course, Wisconsin, which will hold a long-awaited election that will determine control of the state Supreme Court. The Davids also delve into the world of digital advertising with Mark Jablonowski, an Obama veteran and the president of DSPolitical. Jablonowski reveals the inner workings of online ads, which have become an increasingly important part of every modern campaign. He specifically explains how even the smallest campaigns he works with can target voters in sophisticated ways to urge them to the polls—a roster that includes none other than James Malone. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

    52 min
  3. The fallout from Schumer's capitulation

    MAR 20

    The fallout from Schumer's capitulation

    Chuck Schumer and the handful of Senate Democrats who stood with him have faced unprecedented backlash for caving to Republicans on their budget bill last Friday, so we're pulling out our Geiger counters and assessing the fallout on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why Schumer's biggest failure was his hamfisted execution of an already questionable strategy. But it's not just the lingering anger Democrats need to worry about: Similar fights are coming up in Congress later this year, and they need to be much better prepared next time. The Davids also dive into a new plan from Kansas Republicans to bend the state Supreme Court to their will—and warn that, if next year's vote on the GOP's amendment turns into another referendum on abortion, it's likely doomed. They also highlight why a burgeoning effort in New Hampshire to finally end the state's last-in-the-nation primary is a very good thing, and one that other stragglers should follow. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

    40 min
  4. Why Senate Dems should fear primary voters

    MAR 13

    Why Senate Dems should fear primary voters

    Democrats in Congress are in the middle of an extraordinary battle over government funding, but if they fail to heed their base and stand up to Republicans, the electoral impact could be dramatic—though not in a way they're accustomed to. This week on The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explore the ramifications of this shutdown fight and explain why Democrats have little reason to worry it will affect next year's general election but should be very concerned about their own primaries. The Davids also welcome back Daily Kos Elections alum Matt Booker, who's now a pollster at Change Research. Matt catches us up on the state of polls today and tells us why the data the public sees is just the tip of the polling iceberg. We also discuss the shockingly wide-open race for governor in Matt's home state of New Jersey and pour one out for 538, an invaluable site whose loss will be profoundly felt by anyone interested in elections. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

    57 min
  5. Fired gov't workers could be Democrats' best candidates

    MAR 6

    Fired gov't workers could be Democrats' best candidates

    Federal workers who've gotten smashed by Elon Musk's wrecking ball cut a sympathetic figure and have a compelling story to tell—and they could prove to be Democrats' best candidates. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard discuss why Andrew Lennox, a Marine veteran fired from the VA, is likely just the first of many former government employees whose righteous fury Republican office-holders will feel first-hand at the ballot box. The Davids also welcome on Texas state Rep. Mihaela Plesa for a deep dive into Lone Star politics. Plesa, who represents one of just a handful of competitive House seats in the state, explains how Democrats, despite being in the minority, have forged alliances with establishment Republicans to keep the far-right at bay. She also previews the looming fight over school vouchers and tells us what to look for in next year's elections. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

    47 min
  6. Dems who don't stand up to Trump could face an insurgency

    FEB 27

    Dems who don't stand up to Trump could face an insurgency

    Democrats have a lot of options when deciding how to oppose Donald Trump—and some of them are making the wrong choices. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, we make a case study out of Massachusetts Rep. Stephen Lynch, whose recent outburst at constituents who exhorted him to more forcefully resist Trump could net him a primary challenge. But it's not just Lynch: Anger among Democratic voters and activists is intense, and it could lead to a widespread insurgency that reshapes the party, much as the tea party movement did with the GOP in 2010. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also check in on several races where big news has broken over the last week, including Mitch McConnell's long-awaited retirement announcement—and why would-be Republican successors want nothing to do with him. Also on tap are the open governor's seats in Florida and Ohio, where major Trump-backed candidates just jumped in. And finally, we wrap up with a look at the recent German elections and what they mean for the country's relations with the U.S. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

    48 min
  7. Watch David Nir and Aaron Rupar's live chat and Q&A

    FEB 20

    Watch David Nir and Aaron Rupar's live chat and Q&A

    David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, and Aaron Rupar, publisher of Public Notice, held their monthly live chat on Thursday to share their insights on some of the most important stories in American politics, including: * Why Trump calling himself “king” matters—and how New York is fighting back. * What it actually means to have a constitutional crisis, and why we’re in one already. * Why Democrats in Congress should not bail out Republicans on any votes, and much more. David and Aaron also took a wide range of questions from those who participated live. If you missed the event, you can watch it by clicking above! You can also find a complete transcript. Tune in at 2 PM ET on the second Thursday of each month to join in the discussion and fire away with your questions! Our next event will take place on March 14. You can participate by downloading the free Substack app or by clicking the link in the email we send out when we go live. If you haven’t yet subscribed to Public Notice, which offers insightful and independent commentary on U.S. politics and media, click the button below: And if you haven’t yet subscribed to The Downballot, which provides unparalleled coverage of the thousands of critical elections below the presidency, sign up below: Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

    57 min
  8. How Dems are fighting to save the Wisconsin Supreme Court

    FEB 20

    How Dems are fighting to save the Wisconsin Supreme Court

    The most important election between now and November will take place on April 1 in Wisconsin, when liberals will defend their hard-won majority on the state Supreme Court. Joining us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast is veteran Badger State strategist Joe Zepecki, who breaks down every aspect of the race for us: who the candidates are, what kind of attack ads each side is running, and how Elon Musk's seven-figure cash infusion threatens to end Democrats' financial dominance. Plus, why you'll want to keep an eye on Green Bay as the bellwether on election night. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dive into the Minnesota Senate race, which was just transformed by Democrat Tina Smith's retirement. They explain why, contrary to conventional wisdom, retirements can actually be a good thing and discuss the troubles the GOP is likely to have in recruiting a top-shelf candidate. As if to make their point, one of the strongest possible Republicans they mention, Rep. Pete Stauber, announced he wouldn't run just after the Davids finished recording! Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

    54 min
See All (163)

    4.7
    out of 5
    136 Ratings

    About

    The Downballot podcast is dedicated to the thousands of elections below the presidency, from Senate to city council. With more than 20 years of experience analyzing U.S. elections, we provide unparalleled insight into congressional, state, and local races nationwide. Tune in every Thursday morning for one-of-a-kind coverage of these key contests. www.the-downballot.com

    Information

    • Creator
      David Nir & David Beard
    • Years Active
      2022 - 2025
    • Episodes
      163
    • Rating
      Clean
    • Copyright
      © The Downballot, LLC
    • Show Website
      The Downballot

    You Might Also Like

    Content Restricted

    This episode can’t be played on the web in your country or region.

    To listen to explicit episodes, sign in.

    Stay up to date with this show

    Sign in or sign up to follow shows, save episodes, and get the latest updates.
    Select a country or region

    Africa, Middle East, and India

    Asia Pacific

    Europe

    Latin America and the Caribbean

    The United States and Canada