The IRF Podcast irfpodcast

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Wolfgang Munchau, the Founder of Eurointelligence.
----more----
In this podcast, Wolfgang Munchau assesses the outlook for Russia’s attritional war on Ukraine from a European perspective and discusses how it is likely to end. Wolfgang notes that the Ukraine war, and other global developments, have had a profound impact on Germany’s export-orientated economy, where the manufacturing sector now needs to evolve and adapt to changing geopolitical and technological circumstances. He points out that these factors are hampering the growth potential in Germany and across the EU.
Wolfgang then considers both the successes and the failures of the Euro single currency over the past 25 years. Looking forward, he indicates how the Euro is likely to perform from hereon in conjunction with the probable stance of the ECB’s monetary policy. Wolfgang also assesses what is at stake from the result of this year’s elections to the European parliament. In addition, he highlights the investment opportunities in Europe’s venture capital sector, but warns against investing in some of the large established companies in the automobile and chemical sectors.
Wolfgang Munchau founded Eurointelligence in 2006 and is widely considered one of the world’s foremost experts on the Eurozone. Eurointelligence provides a specialist service for news and analysis of the EU and eurozone in a global context. Their flagship product, Eurointelligence Professional, offers filtered and time-saving access to important information from a wide network of national and international sources.
 

In 2020, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart produced a very influential book, which was entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. In their book they predicted that in the medium-term inflation would take off and that interest rates would increase in response to secular trends, such as ageing societies and deglobalisation. They argued that this revival of inflation would not be transitory.
----more----
In this podcast, Manoj Pradhan assesses the importance of deglobalisation, supply chain constraints, labour shortages, productivity trends, A.I. and demographics for the inflation outlook. Manoj then discusses the extent to which these inflationary factors are coming into play in 2024-2025. He considers what this means for fiscal policies, monetary policies and for economic growth in the G7 economies in the longer run. Manoj discusses the implications for the financial markets in several of the main advanced economies and emerging markets. He concludes with an assessment of some of the best investment opportunities in the currency, bond and equity markets, as well as pointing out what he would avoid at present.
Talking Heads Macro (THM) was established in 2016 by Manoj and his Co-Founder, Charles Goodhart, the renowned former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and Professor at the London School of Economics. Using an outstanding mix of applied and academic thinking, their unique framework lets them develop perspectives on asset prices that traditional research completely misses. THM generates macroeconomic trade recommendations on a 6-12-month horizon by showing how current developments fit into longer-term themes.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Metzner and Chris Czerwinski of ACG Analytics.
----more----
ACG Analytics is an independent research firm that translates public policy for investment fund managers and analysts. Their research focuses on specific policy issues and actions in the United States, the European Union, Asia and Latin America. They anticipate how government policies in key markets may impact on investor strategies.
 
In this podcast David Metzner and Chris Czerwinski discuss the prospects for the US economy in the run-up to the US presidential and congressional elections in early November. They point out that the stimulative fiscal policy and potentially lower interest rates should support economic activity this year, but there is no feel-good factor about the US economy in the way that there was before the global Covid pandemic.
 
They highlight the key policy differences between the Democrats and the Republicans and emphasise the importance of the key battleground states in determining the outcome of the US presidential election. Their state-by-state analysis suggests that President Biden could achieve a narrow victory, which could then cause some initial social instability given the fervour of many Trump supporters.
 
David and Chris then discuss the main economic and geopolitical challenges that the USA will likely face in 2025 and beyond. In conclusion they highlight some of the attractions of the USA from an investment perspective.
 

JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Nicholas Watson, Managing Director of Teneo Political Risk Advisory, to discuss whether the recently elected President Javier Milei will be able to succeed where his predecessors have failed, namely to implement the necessary measures which would lead to a durable stabilisation of the crisis-stricken Argentinian economy.
----more----
In his assessment, Nicholas discusses the social and political context and draws on a series of meetings from his recent extensive fact-finding visit to Argentina, to incorporate the latest developments and outline the key potential scenarios for the coming months.
Nicholas Watson is a Managing Director at Teneo responsible for coverage of the Spanish-speaking Latin American economies. Teneo is a global CEO advisory firm offering diversified services that include strategic communications, financial advisory, management consulting and risk advisory. Teneo’s geopolitical risk consulting and advisory services target political events and their implications for corporations and financial markets. They identify political drivers that move markets and forecast outcomes and scenarios to help clients incorporate political futures into their strategic planning.

David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Murrin, the Founder of Global Forecaster, who is renowned for the development of unique and effective behavioural models that predict financial markets.
----more----
In this podcast, David Murrin discusses the importance of the Kondratiev (K-wave) commodity super-cycle to the outlook both for inflation and other financial markets. He explains the implications of the K-wave (which is expected to peak in approximately 2030 or 2031) for his “Five Stages of Empire” model and what this means for empires in decline (such as USA and the EU) and empires that are rising (such as China and India). In the next few years, this has substantial inflationary ramifications for commodities, bonds, equities and currencies, particularly the US dollar. He outlines the way that rising geopolitical conflicts could lead to an escalation of the ongoing warfare between autocracies and democracies. This has dramatic consequences for global asset allocation decisions and favours an overweight investment in gold and many other commodities.
 
David’s long career has been focused on finding deep-seated patterns in history and using them to understand and accurately predict both the geopolitical dynamics and the financial markets.
Global Forecaster provides actionable real-time market analysis combined with a unique geopolitical overview.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.
----more----
Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research & institutional firms. He specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by his proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques.
In this podcast Ron explains why the trade-weighted dollar index (DXY) is likely to depreciate and assesses the outlook for the US currency against the euro, sterling and the Japanese yen. He then discusses the prospects for the government bond markets in the US and UK with reference to the recent trends in 10-year yields and the economic outlook.
With respect to the US stock market, Ron identifies the factors that have caused the US S&P 500 Index to become extremely overbought and discusses the potential for this to continue or unwind in 2024. He points out that the UK FTSE 100 Index is close to the middle of the 7,000 – 8,000 trading range that has been established for several years, however he foresees downside risks that could provide a healthy correction. Ron also discusses the reasons behind the very strong performance of the Japanese stock market and foresees the major uptrend in the Nikkei 225 Index continuing and eventually reaching a new all-time-high above the psychologically important 40,000 level. In conclusion, he discusses the performance of various commodities and highlights the bullish outlook for gold.
RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques. Ron William is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach. He uses the latest techniques in behavioural/risk assessment modelling, peak-performance, neuro/body science and stress response management, including mindfulness and coherence training, supported by his market strategies.