4 episodes
Uncertainty as part of decision-relevant information Oxford University
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Uncertainty is part and parcel of scientific information and the various disciplines (e.g., medical, management and social and environmental sciences) have developed vocabularies and scientific means of communicating that uncertainty. In addition, different decision-making and policy communities have developed means of using information and data that to different extents includes the associated uncertainties. For example the medical community has considerable experience in presenting and communicating uncertainty to inform decisions made by both practitioners and patients. There is also experience with the broader decision-making community (e.g., robust decision making) that could inform and challenge existing approaches across disciplines. This seminar series will build on the knowledge and experiences of these various communities,(practice and theory), to better understand and share lessons on practices, challenges and success towards better informing decision making and policy.Organised by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, part of the Department of Politics and International Relations at Oxford. http://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk
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An Uncertain Climate
Chris Rapley, Professor of Climate Science, University College London, gives the final lecture in the Uncertainty series. This talk will cover the complexity of the Earth systems, and the nature and magnitude of the challenge of exploring and understanding how it functions. Key outcomes of the research effort will be summarised, as will the approaches used to predict the future trajectory of the system and the consequences for humanity. A key uncertainty is the extent to which humans will take measures to mitigate anthropogenic influences on climate, and so I will address the phenomenon of 'climate delusion' and its consequences. Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/uk/
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Uncertainty, risk and decision making in medical care
What should patients and clinicians make of uncertainty, risk and decision making in medical care? Dr Angela Coulter delivers a lecture at Green Templeton College as part of the Uncertainty series. Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/uk/
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Uncertainty, risk and decision making: A view from the Environmental Social Sciences
Professor Nick Pidgeon gives a talk for the Uncertainty, Risk and Decision Making seminar series. Events of the past 3 years - from volcanic ash, to climate change e-mails, to Fukushima - have brought home the importance of both handling and communicating environmental risks for both the public and for policy purposes. This talk will ask what we know about types of environmental uncertainty, and their significance and impacts for both policy decisions and communication with the public. I argue that despite longstanding evidence and research findings from the environmental social sciences there is little appreciable progress in the UK as elsewhere on the necessary strategic approach to supporting policy decisions and communicating uncertainty. Such an approach would combine 'strategic listening' with 'strategic organisation'. The forms of boundary organisation that might be needed to take up these tasks are also discussed. Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/uk/
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Dealing with uncertainties in UK energy policy: Some lessons from experience
Jim Watson (Director, Sussex Energy Group) delivers a lecture as part of the 2012 Green Templeton College "Uncertainty..." lecture series. Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/uk/
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