Excess Returns

Excess Returns
  • 4.7 (91)
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. 1d ago

    Ed Yardeni Still Sees S&P 10,000 by 2029. So Why Is He Getting More Cautious?

    Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research explains why he still sees the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2029, even as higher oil prices and bond yields make him more cautious near term. His destination hasn't changed, but the timetable has: he has pushed his 8,400 target to mid-2027 while retaining his Roaring 2020s outlook. In this conversation with Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand, Ed distinguishes an earnings-led bull market from a speculative melt-up, explains why retiring baby boomers keep spending, and makes the case for AI's benefits spreading beyond the Magnificent Seven. He also weighs the return of the bond vigilantes, diesel's inflation impact, global diversification and the risks that could challenge his optimistic base case. Topics covered: Ed Yardeni's FEMO: fabulous earnings momentum versus fear of missing outWhy strong earnings can support stocks even as valuation multiples fallThe assumptions behind Ed Yardeni's S&P 500 target of 10,000 by 2029Retiree wealth, consumer spending and Ed Yardeni's G-shaped economyAI, productivity and data as a fourth factor of productionWhy Ed Yardeni favors the “impressive 493” as potential AI beneficiariesCloud revenue, compute demand and the returns on AI capital spendingBond vigilantes, fiscal deficits and the difference between growth-driven yields and a debt crisisHow diesel costs could feed into core inflationGlobal diversification and the bond market's role in guiding Fed policy Chapters: 00:00 Ed Yardeni's bull case and near-term caution 04:26 The Roaring 2020s and retiree spending 08:53 Technology and the productivity thesis 13:06 AI, economic growth and data as a resource 18:22 Why the economy is more than AI spending 24:10 AI returns and the impressive 493 29:48 Valuations, S&P 10,000 and rising bond yields 38:42 Government debt and demand for Treasuries 43:34 Diesel inflation and global diversification 47:41 Fed policy and signals from the bond market 51:55 Yardeni Research's process and tools 56:19 Why Ed Yardeni favors a G-shaped economy Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co

  2. 3d ago

    The 10-Year Hit a 24-Year High. Nobody Is Buying Puts. Are You Watching the Wrong Market?

    Andy Constan, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman examine rising bond yields, options positioning and the inflation risks facing stocks. What happens if the rate relief traders are betting on never arrives? On this month's Last Call, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler connect three perspectives on the market. Andy Constan explains why stronger growth and debt supply can push yields higher without signaling a bond crisis. Brent Kochuba examines options flows that suggest traders are still leaning toward a rebound. Eric Pachman traces the path from refinery constraints and diesel shortages to freight costs and consumer inflation. Jack and Matt close with the investment implications of AI spending, efficiency and adoption. Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠ Topics covered: Andy Constan on growth, AI capital spending and the supply of debtWhy Andy Constan sees more attractive bonds without calling for a recessionHow higher yields can constrain stock returns even when growth remains strongBrent Kochuba on bond volatility, calm equities and bets on falling yieldsWhy Brent Kochuba is watching both upside surprises and downside riskEric Pachman on crack spreads and why cheaper crude may not mean cheaper fuelHow diesel prices can flow through freight bills into CPIEric Pachman on wage inequality and what national averages missAI spending, productivity and the difference between slower growth and contractionThe practical obstacles to bringing AI agents into everyday lifeChapters:00:00 Rising yields and the outlook for stocks05:26 Andy Constan: Growth, debt supply and higher yields12:01 Why bonds look more attractive after the selloff18:33 Brent Kochuba: Options flows and bets on rate relief23:21 Equity complacency and risks in both directions31:12 Eric Pachman: Diesel shortages, crack spreads and inflation40:06 Wage inequality and the limits of average inflation44:40 AI capital spending, productivity and investment returns50:34 AI adoption, automation and everyday obstacles Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:⁠https://excessreturns.co⁠ No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  3. 5d ago

    They Beat All US Stock Funds Since 2003 | Michael Baron on the AI Winners Investors Miss

    Michael Baron of Baron Capital explains his case for AI beneficiaries beyond the biggest tech stocks, including software companies the market fears will be disrupted. He joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to discuss how competitive advantages, management quality, and a long investment horizon shape the firm's growth portfolios. Baron Capital's co-president and portfolio manager walks through the firm's investments in Tesla and SpaceX, from vertical integration and autonomous driving to reusable rockets, Starlink, and the potential for AI infrastructure in space. He also explains why proprietary data may strengthen some software businesses, how the firm manages positions as winners grow, and what would make him sell. The conversation closes with lessons from Ron Baron on curiosity, primary research, and building conviction. Topics covered: Finding growth opportunities across technology, financial services, real estate, and consumer businessesWhy Michael Baron believes some apparent AI losers could become beneficiariesProprietary data and the investment cases for Shopify, Guidewire, FactSet, MSCI, and GartnerTesla's evolution, energy business, and the potential economics of autonomy and softwareSpaceX's reusable rockets, Starlink, and Michael Baron's vision for AI infrastructure in spaceValuing businesses over a long horizon and assessing reliance on key leadersLessons from Ron Baron and the importance of management relationships during market stressLetting winners run while managing concentration, leverage, and portfolio correlationsDistinguishing portfolio trims from selling when a competitive advantage deterioratesWhy Michael Baron believes AI will increase the importance of investment judgmentLearn more about Baron Capital: https://www.baroncapitalgroup.com/ Chapters: 00:00 Michael Baron on finding growth beyond technology 04:16 AI disruption and the opportunity in software 10:54 Tesla, Elon Musk, and vertical integration 18:33 Long-term valuation and key-person risk 23:28 SpaceX, Starlink, and AI infrastructure in space 34:11 Lessons from Ron Baron and the firm's future 40:08 Evaluating management and competitive advantages 47:11 Time as an edge and managing growing positions 54:11 When to trim a position and when to sell 58:11 Curiosity, primary research, and conviction Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  4. Sep 29

    The Game Was Rigged in Their Favor. 28% Went Bust Anyway | Kris Abdelmessih on How to Size Bets

    How much of your portfolio does a good investment idea deserve? Kris Abdelmessih of Moontower joins Matt Zeigler to explain why having an edge is only part of the decision: position size can determine whether favorable odds translate into long-term growth or damaging losses. Through a coin-flipping experiment and everyday examples, Kris makes the Kelly Criterion accessible without a complicated derivation. The conversation explores the difference between expected returns and compounded wealth, why growth-maximizing bets can still be uncomfortable, and how uncertain probabilities make a case for betting less. From portfolio decisions to insurance and extended warranties, the goal is to build better intuition about how much risk to take. Topics covered: How a favorable coin-flipping game exposed costly mistakes in bet sizingWhy maximizing the expected payoff of one bet differs from maximizing long-term compounded growthHow oversized bets can undermine an otherwise profitable opportunityThe Kelly Criterion's three inputs: probability of winning, probability of losing, and payoffWhy a constant percentage of your bankroll means changing the dollar amount after wins and lossesHow different payoffs change the appropriate size of a betApplying the framework to hypothetical self-insurance and extended-warranty decisionsWhy full Kelly can involve substantial drawdowns, and the tradeoffs of fractional KellyWorking backward from a position size to the odds needed to justify itAllowing for uncertainty in your estimates and preserving capital for future opportunitiesThe essay behind this conversation: After this post you will be sizing bets in your head https://www.panoptica.com/after-this-post-you-will-be-sizing-bets-in-your-head/ Research discussed: Rational Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on a Biased Coin https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.01427 Kris Abdelmessih's Moontower newsletter: https://moontower.substack.com/ Moontower: https://moontower.ai/ Kris Abdelmessih on X: https://x.com/KrisAbdelmessih Chapters: 00:00 Position sizing and the favorable coin-flip experiment 04:45 Why a good bet can produce bad outcomes 13:49 The Kelly Criterion formula explained 18:10 Adjusting your bankroll and accounting for the payoff 23:03 Applying Kelly to a self-insurance decision 30:25 Full Kelly, drawdowns, and reasons to bet less 34:59 Working backward from bet size and evaluating warranties 41:09 Volatility drag, uncertain odds, and the experiment's results 46:09 How much capital does your edge deserve? Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  5. Sep 26

    We Asked the Data Journalist Who Rebuilt the Jobs Report What the Headline Number Hides

    What are headline jobs and inflation numbers missing about the economy investors actually face? Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to examine how a changing workforce, rising fuel costs, and differences in household spending could affect inflation, consumer demand, and corporate margins. Using interactive data tools, Eric looks beneath monthly payroll reports, maps changes in America's labor force, and traces how diesel prices can work their way into retail prices. He also shares a grocery-price study that challenged his own assumptions about CPI and explains how he is using AI to make rigorous data journalism more accessible. Topics covered: Why monthly jobs reports need context, including survey uncertainty and revisionsHow to spot unusual industry-level payroll changes and assess the quality of jobs addedWhat county-level labor force trends reveal about aging and rural AmericaEric Pachman's research on foreign-born workers and the limits of replacement assumptionsHow a shrinking supply of workers could create pressure on service pricesHow diesel costs flow through freight surcharges, retailer margins, and consumer pricesWhat to watch for in retailer earnings calls as companies weigh price increasesWhy household income, driving habits, and spending patterns change the experience of inflationWhat Eric Pachman's Kroger study found about CPI, the Thrifty Food Plan, and store brandsUsing AI to test assumptions and expand access to data journalismExplore Eric Pachman's research and interactive tools: https://www.data4thepeople.com/ The Men Who Vanished: Testing Labor Market Displacement https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/the-men-who-vanished How do the government's grocery prices stack up against the real ones? https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/kroger-shelf-vs-cpi-thrifty-food-plan/ Chapters: 00:00 Introduction and Data 4 The People's mission 09:20 Spotting unusual changes in the jobs data 18:27 Mapping America's changing labor force 27:00 Foreign-born workers, aging, and labor supply 34:51 Energy costs and the path to consumer inflation 47:49 Why your inflation experience differs from CPI 56:12 Personal inflation tools and testing grocery prices 1:02:36 AI, data journalism, and challenging your own bias 1:11:17 Where to find Eric Pachman's work and tools Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  6. Sep 23

    He Lost $157,000 in 3 Minutes | Jack Raines on the Lesson Winning Never Taught Him

    Jack Raines turned $6,000 into roughly $400,000 trading SPACs, then lost $157,000 in three minutes after taking a very different bet. The author of Young Money joins Matt Zeigler to discuss what that experience taught him about investing risk, the urge to chase more, and the time a growing portfolio can cost you. The conversation follows Jack Raines from SPAC warrants and market narratives to a broader question: how do you allocate money, time, and risk to build a life you actually want? They explore the limits of a trading edge, why cheap stocks can get cheaper, and how debt, career choices, and status shape the decisions investors make beyond their portfolios. Young Money: A Field Guide to Wealth and Purpose in Your Twenties https://amzn.to/4AtUsDoJack Raines' Young Money newsletter https://www.youngmoney.co/ Jack Raines on X https://twitter.com/Jack_Raines Topics covered: How Jack Raines grew his Roth IRA through SPAC warrants and pre-merger common shares, and why those positions carried different risks.Why an edge in one corner of the market did not translate into a successful concentrated earnings bet.How a million-dollar target and constant account checking changed Jack Raines' relationship with money and time.What SEC filings, Discord research, and market narratives contributed to his trading process.Why Jack Raines bought Figma after questioning the market's AI narrative and speaking with designers.Applying portfolio thinking to careers, creative projects, and opportunities that change with each stage of life.Weighing retirement saving against other opportunities, and why Jack Raines treats expensive debt as a constraint on taking risks.Escaping the "someday" trap while giving long-term venture investments time to develop.Combining steady income and index funds with independent bets, while treating status as a tool rather than a goal.Why Jack Raines believes investors learn about risk through experience, with stakes they can afford to recover from.Timestamps: 00:00 Jack Raines on the lessons of losing money 04:57 Inside the SPAC trades and the $157,000 loss 15:16 Separating market hype from downside math 22:18 Building a life with portfolio principles 29:45 Retirement saving, trading obsession, and the cost of time 36:56 Debt, freedom, and the trap of waiting for someday 44:33 Venture investing: acting quickly and waiting patiently 51:03 Using status without making it the goal 56:08 The investing lesson experience has to teach Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  7. Sep 20

    The AI Gap Is Closing | Jason Hsu on China, Momentum Crashes and the S&P’s Seven-Stock Bet

    Jason Hsu, founder and CIO of Rayliant Global Advisors and co-founder of Research Affiliates, joins Excess Returns to discuss the US-China AI race, the economics of AI spending, and what market concentration means for investors. We explore China's energy and open source advantages, opportunities in Chinese stocks, and how factor investing and machine learning can help build more diversified portfolios. Rayliant Global Advisors https://rayliant.com Rayliant on X https://twitter.com/rayliant Topics covered: Why Jason believes AI safety requires cooperation between the US and China How Chinese AI models are closing the gap with US developers China's electricity infrastructure and the competitive threat from open source AI Where AI profits could accrue across hardware, energy, models and applications How chip restrictions are encouraging China to develop domestic capabilities Why retail trading creates opportunities and challenges for factor investors in China Chinese technology companies, dividend-paying state enterprises and US-China trade The AI spending arms race and the concentration risk facing S&P 500 investors Momentum crashes, value cycles and how Rayliant uses machine learning to combine factors Why advisors' greatest contribution may be helping clients find meaning in their wealth Timestamps: 00:00 Jason Hsu on AI competition and safety 04:00 How close are Chinese AI models to the US? 08:25 China's energy advantage and open source economics 14:12 Who captures AI profits, and can China catch up in chips? 18:41 Chinese stocks, retail trading and speculation 24:01 China's overlooked opportunities and dividend stocks 28:05 US-China interdependence and the AI spending arms race 33:24 The AI concentration hiding in the S&P 500 37:25 Momentum crashes, value cycles and factor performance 41:54 Machine learning and building multifactor portfolios 48:46 Financial advisors, Jack Bogle and having enough 53:23 Why inefficient markets do not make alpha easy Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  8. Sep 18

    David Rosenberg on Why He Wants the Bonds Everyone Hates — and Where He's Hiding in Stocks

    David Rosenberg returns to Excess Returns to explain his bullish case for Treasury bonds, why he expects inflation and economic growth to slow, and the risks he sees in an AI-driven stock market. The Rosenberg Research founder joins Matt Zeigler to discuss consumer spending, Federal Reserve policy, gold, international stocks, and how he translates his economic outlook into a diversified portfolio. Recorded September 16, 2026, before the Federal Reserve's policy announcement. David Rosenberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie Rosenberg Research https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/ Topics covered: Why Rosenberg believes markets have priced in too much Fed tightening and Treasury bonds offer an opportunity Why he views higher oil prices as a tax on consumers rather than evidence of sustained, broad-based inflation How slowing wage growth, falling savings, and the stock market wealth effect shape consumer spending How Treasury issuance changes and potential post-election fiscal gridlock could support bonds Why AI exposure extends beyond technology stocks into utilities, industrials, and other sectors Where he sees opportunities in healthcare, consumer staples, pipelines, European stocks, and Asia His model portfolio's allocation to equities, bonds, cash, and commodities How gold, central bank buying, and a bearish dollar outlook fit his investment thesis Why he is positioning for slower growth without making recession his base case What working with portfolio managers taught him about cutting losses and separating conviction from stubbornness Timestamps: 00:00 Rosenberg's portfolio approach and the Treasury opportunity 05:58 Why an oil shock can weaken consumer spending 10:52 Jobs, wages, and the stock market wealth effect 17:35 Fiscal stimulus, Treasury issuance, and the bond outlook 22:53 AI concentration risk beyond technology stocks 27:10 Why he owns European and Asian equities 31:16 Inside his 50% stocks, 30% bonds model portfolio 36:43 Betting against the inflation consensus 42:41 Gold, central bank reserves, and a weaker dollar 48:56 Recession watch and bear market risks for 2027 53:10 AI correlations and the risks of being fully invested 58:27 Cutting losses and knowing when conviction becomes stubbornness Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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  • Creator
    Excess Returns
  • Years Active
    2019 - 2026
  • Episodes
    570
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 905628
  • Show Website
    Excess Returns

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