My Worst Investment Ever Podcast

Andrew Stotz
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My Worst Investment Ever Podcast

Welcome to My Worst Investment Ever podcast hosted by Your Worst Podcast Host, Andrew Stotz, where you will hear stories of loss to keep you winning. In our community, we know that to win in investing you must take the risk, but to win big, you’ve got to reduce it. Your Worst Podcast Host, Andrew Stotz, Ph.D., CFA, is also the CEO of A. Stotz Investment Research and A. Stotz Academy, which helps people create, grow, measure, and protect their wealth. To find more stories like this, previous episodes, and resources to help you reduce your risk, visit https://myworstinvestmentever.com/

  1. Enrich Your Future 27: Pascal’s Wager: Betting on Consequences Over Probabilities

    4D AGO

    Enrich Your Future 27: Pascal’s Wager: Betting on Consequences Over Probabilities

    In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 27: Pascal’s Wager and the Making of Prudent Decisions. LEARNING: Use Pascal’s wager to avoid making devastating mistakes.   “You have to think about the cost of being wrong versus giving up on that hope or the ability to brag about how you pick the best-performing stock. Pascal’s wager gives you the right way to think about the answer. And then, you get to enjoy your life much more.”Larry Swedroe  In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks. Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 27: Pascal’s Wager and the Making of Prudent Decisions. Chapter 27: Pascal’s Wager and the Making of Prudent DecisionsIn this chapter, Larry discusses Pascal’s wager, a suggestion posed by the French philosopher Blaise Pascal that emphasizes the importance of considering the consequences of decisions rather than just the probability of outcomes. Pascal’s wagerIn Pascal’s wager, the philosopher asked how we should act when we cannot prove or disprove if God exists. To answer this question, the philosopher said: if a Supreme Being doesn’t exist, then all the devout have lost is the opportunity to fornicate, imbibe, and skip a lot of adult church services. But if God does exist, then the atheist roasts in hell for eternity. Pascal concluded that the consequences of your actions matter far more than whatever you think the probabilities of the outcomes might be. Using Pascal’s wager to make financial decisionsPascal’s wager empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. It encourages us to carefully consider the consequences before accepting the risks involved in case we are wrong. This approach can be applied to a wide range of financial decisions, instilling confidence in our choices. Buying life insuranceImagine you’re an average 28-year-old. You got married a few years ago and have your first child. Now, you must decide whether you should have life insurance. If you buy the life insurance, you know with a very high degree of certainty for the next 40 years, you’re going to be paying away a premium to the life insurance company and foregoing their earnings that you could get by taking that money investing in the stock market and maybe get a seven to 10% per annum return. Yet, most people buy the insurance because of the consequences of their being wrong, and they happen to be unlucky enough to die, either through an accident or some disease that wasn’t forecasted for them. Then, their wives and children may live in poverty. And that’s just a consequence that’s not acceptable. Asset allocationIn another example, Pascal discusses

    48 min
  2. Wes Schaeffer – Future-Proofing Your Business: Trust, Strategy, and Agility

    MAR 17

    Wes Schaeffer – Future-Proofing Your Business: Trust, Strategy, and Agility

    BIO: Wes Schaeffer is The Business Fixer®. He sees the message you want to convey but can’t find the words and gives them to you because if you don’t toot your own horn, there is no music. STORY: Wes discusses the evolving landscape of business and marketing, emphasizing the importance of human connection, trust, and information. LEARNING: Future-proof your business with trust, strategy, and agility.   “It is time to spring clean your business. Get light, get lean, get focused, and build a legacy.”Wes Schaeffer  Guest profileWes Schaeffer is The Business Fixer®. He sees the message you want to convey but can’t find the words and gives them to you because if you don’t toot your own horn, there is no music. He’s a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and the president of his HOA, so mow your lawn and pay attention to what this AF veteran, father of 7, and grandfather of three has to say. He’s written a couple of books, spoken around the world, published over 700 podcasts, and was once duct-taped to a bar in Korea. Join his free 12 Weeks to Peak program designed to help individuals and teams build a life cadence and achieve their goals. Worst investment everIn today’s episode, Wes, who previously appeared on the podcast on episode Ep280: Do Your Research and Trust Your Gut, discusses the evolving landscape of business and marketing, emphasizing the importance of human connection, trust, and information. Effects of technology on marketingWes starts the discussion by noting how the salesperson’s role has evolved since the internet came around. Before the internet, he says, salespeople were the keepers of the knowledge. If you wanted to buy a car, you had to go down to the dealership. Now you have CarFax and online shopping in comparison, and you can compare models and negotiate before you get there. People freely share information online, so salespeople are no longer the keeper of knowledge. Despite the abundance of knowledge, buyers often find themselves in a state of confusion. In the past, this confusion stemmed from a lack of information. However, in today’s digital age, the problem has shifted to an overwhelming amount of information. This is where the salesperson’s role becomes crucial. As a salesperson, you have the opportunity to step in as a trusted advisor. Your role is to help your customers navigate the sea of information available online, assuage their fears, and instill in them the confidence that they are making the right decision. The role of trust and information in marketingAndrew and Wes delve into the significance of trust in marketing, with Wes underlining that trust is the cornerstone of purchasing decisions. He points out that despite the advancements in technology, people still crave individualized treatment. As a salesperson, it’s crucial to ask yourself: What am I doing to connect with the human being on the other side of the screen? This connection, built on trust, is what reassures customers and gives them the confidence to make a purchase. Wes reminds salespersons that customers don’t want to be treated like numbers, so they should be consistent and congruent in their approach to marketing and spend enough time building trust. Adapting to market changes and future-proofing businessesWes and Andrew discuss the impact of global competition,...

    48 min
  3. Enrich Your Future 26: Should You Invest Now or Spread It Out?

    MAR 10

    Enrich Your Future 26: Should You Invest Now or Spread It Out?

    In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 26: Dollar Cost Averaging. LEARNING: Invest all your money whenever you have it.   “If you want to put the odds in your favor, which is the best we can do because we don’t have clear crystal balls, you should put all your money in whenever you have it to invest.”Larry Swedroe  In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks. Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 26: Dollar Cost Averaging. Chapter 26: Dollar Cost AveragingIn this chapter, Larry discusses why lump sum investing is better than dollar cost averaging. Should you invest your money all at once or spread it over time?According to Larry, the issue of Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) typically arises when an investor receives a large lump sum of money and wonders if they should invest it all at once or spread it over time. The same problem arises when an investor panics and sells when confronted with a bear market, but then there are two questions: How does the investor decide when it is safe to reenter the market? And does she reinvest all at once or by DCA? Constantinides, a University of Chicago professor in the 1960s, studied this question. He demonstrated that DCA is an inferior strategy to lump sum investing. He termed it logically dumb as it makes no sense based on an expected return outcome. From a purely financial perspective, the logical answer is that if you have money to invest, you should always invest it whenever it’s available. Another paper by John Knight and Lewis Mandell compared DCA to a buy-and-hold strategy. Then, it analyzed the strategies across a series of investor profiles from risk-averse to aggressive. They concluded that DCA had no advantage over the two alternative investment strategies. Combined with their graphical analysis, their numerical trial and empirical evidence favored optimal rebalancing and buy-and-hold strategy over dollar cost averaging. Optimal rebalancing refers to the strategy of adjusting the proportions of assets in a portfolio to maintain a desired level of risk and return. Dollar cost averaging versus lump sum investingKnight and Mandell conducted a backtest to compare the performance of DCA versus LSI (lump sum investing). Backtesting is a simulation technique to evaluate the performance of a trading strategy using historical data. They backtested the two strategies between 1926 and 2010. Transaction costs were ignored (favoring DCA, which involves more trading). The authors assumed the initial portfolio was $1 million in cash, and the...

    14 min
  4. Elvi Caperonis - Why Passion Matters in Business

    MAR 3

    Elvi Caperonis - Why Passion Matters in Business

    BIO: Elvi Caperonis is a former Harvard University Analyst and Technical Program Manager at Amazon and LinkedIn’s top Voice and a career strategist who has mastered the art of storytelling to create a six-figure personal brand on LinkedIn. STORY: Elvi decided to be her own boss and started an e-commerce business for which she had no knowledge or passion. It turned out to be a nightmare that cost her $30,000. LEARNING: If you don’t have passion for something, don’t do it. Happiness and delivering value should be the ultimate goal, not just making money.   “Yes, you want to start a business. But first, sit back and ask yourself, “Will I enjoy this? Is this going to tell the story that I want to live in the world?”Elvi Caperonis  Guest profileElvi Caperonis is a former Harvard University Analyst and Technical Program Manager at Amazon and LinkedIn’s top Voice and a career strategist who has mastered the art of storytelling to create a six-figure personal brand on LinkedIn. With a track record of helping job seekers land their dream jobs and supporting millions across the globe through her content on Linkedin, Elvi Caperonis has become the go-to expert for those looking to build a personal brand and land their dream job. The ability to connect with her audience through storytelling and content strategies has made an impact and helped build her brand. Elvi is passionate about helping and inspiring others to achieve results similar to hers. Land Your Dream Job and Succeed 10X Faster!: Access the same strategies that transformed my career Growth by landing jobs at top companies like Harvard University and Amazon—all for a fraction of the price. Worst investment everA few years ago, Elvi decided she wanted to be an entrepreneur and her own boss. She discussed it with her husband, who was very supportive. Elvi chose to launch an E-commerce business. She had heard many people say it was a fun and profitable business and believed she could do it. Elvi took an online course and started learning about E-commerce and how to do it step by step. She did her due diligence. Unfortunately, Elvi didn’t have a passion for E-commerce. It was a lot of work, and it was a nightmare at the end because she was putting in a lot of hours and didn’t turn a profit. She lost about $30,000 in that business. Lessons learnedIf you don’t have passion for something, question yourself 1,000 times before starting that business. Passion allows you to tell a story that resonates with your customers.Learn from people who have done it before and get a mentor.If you don’t have experience in the kind of business you want to start, don’t go all in; be agile and try to sell a few units of your product, then double down as you continue to grow and adapt.Happiness and delivering value should be the ultimate goal, not just making money. Andrew’s takeawaysWhatever job or business you start, ensure it’s built around the core thing you do naturally today. No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsElvi’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to spend more time with her kids, husband, mom, sisters, aunts, and whole family. Parting words  “Even if you cannot see it now, whatever you are going through will be okay. Just keep reminding yourself of this.”Elvi...

    40 min
  5. Enrich Your Future 25: Stock Crashes Happen—Be Prepared

    FEB 24

    Enrich Your Future 25: Stock Crashes Happen—Be Prepared

    In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 25: Battles are Won Before They Are Fought. LEARNING: Be well-prepared for potential disruptions in the market.   “Many investors let emotions drive their decisions, and they end up buying high and selling low—the opposite of what you are doing when rebalancing.”Larry Swedroe  In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks. Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 25: Battles are Won Before They Are Fought. Chapter 25: Battles Are Won Before They Are FoughtIn this chapter, Larry emphasizes the importance of strategic planning to anticipate market shocks, which occur approximately once every three or four years. This proactive approach ensures that investors are well-prepared for potential disruptions in the market. Historical distribution of stock returnsGene Fama studied the historical distribution of stock returns and found that the population of price changes if it was strictly normal on any stock, then a standard deviation shift from the mean of five standard deviations should occur about once every 7,000 years. The reality, though, is it occurs about once every three or four years in the US equity markets. That means the distribution of returns is not normally distributed. To illustrate this, Larry shares evidence of big fat tails in the distribution. From 1926–2022, in 26 out of the 97 years, the S&P 500 Index produced negative returns. In 11 of those years, the losses were greater than 10%. In six of the years, the losses exceeded 20%. In three of the years, the losses exceeded 30%. In one year, the loss exceeded 40%. Prepare to live through a big market downturnAccording to Larry, the data unequivocally shows that stocks are risky assets, with risks that are more prevalent than historical volatility would suggest. Investors must be prepared to face severe losses at some point. It’s not a matter of if these risks will manifest, but when, how sharp the declines will be, and when they will subside. For investors, Larry underscores the importance of winning the big fat tails battle in the planning stage. Successful investors know that bear markets will happen and that they cannot be predicted with a high degree of accuracy. Thus, they build bear markets into their plans. They determine their ability, willingness, and need to take risks. Larry notes that, on average, prudent investors prepare to live through a big market shock once every three or four years. They ensure that their asset allocation does not cause them to take so much risk that when a bear market inevitably shows up, they might sell in a panic. They also make sure that they don’t take so much risk that they lose sleep when emotions caused by bear markets run...

    27 min
  6. Fabrizio Poli – When Passion Meets Poor Partnership

    FEB 17

    Fabrizio Poli – When Passion Meets Poor Partnership

    BIO: Fabrizio has always wanted to fly jets and has had a career flying both private jets and for various airlines worldwide. He has shared the cockpit with pilots from over 65 nationalities, giving him a broader perspective on people and life. STORY: Fabrizio invested in a luxury car business in Italy but chose the wrong person to run the show, and because of this, he lost all his money and a very good friend. LEARNING: Do not mix business with friendship. Hire the right people.   “Business decisions need to be made to make money. If that money helps people as well, great. But trying to mix charity with business is a very bad idea.”Fabrizio Poli  Guest profileFabrizio Poli has always wanted to fly jets and has had a career flying both private jets and for various airlines worldwide. He has shared the cockpit with pilots from over 65 nationalities, giving him a broader perspective on people and life. For the last 14 years, Fabrizio has been buying, selling, leasing, and chartering private jets for the ultra-wealthy. Fabrizio is the author of “The Quantum Economy” and other books. He often shares his aviation expertise in the media and is featured in the Financial Times, Bloomberg, Social Media Examiner, and Chicago Tribune. Worst investment everBeing in the private jet business, Fabrizio decided to venture into the car business a few years ago. He figured people who buy private jets also collect cars. Fabrizio teamed up with a friend of his in Italy. The idea was to buy Vespers, Alfa Romeos, and Ferraris in Italy and sell them internationally. They bought a bunch of cars and opened a showroom in Italy on the road where the first Ferrari was driven. However, Fabrizio was in England at the time. He assumed that his friend was doing things properly. Since the showroom was on a popular road with all these flashy cars parked outside, many people were walking into the showroom, unfortunately not to buy but to look at them. Fabrizio sent over a web designer to help tweak the website and suggested that his partner let people into the showroom by appointment only. This way, he’d avoid spending 90% of his day talking to people who are not there to buy a car. The friend did not heed his advice, and eventually, the business went under. Fabrizio had invested in the right business but in the wrong person, and because of this, he lost all his money and a very good friend. Lessons learnedHire the right people and create a supportive environment for them.Separate business decisions from personal emotions and make independent evaluations.The product and the process can be great, but if you pick the wrong people to run it, they’ll screw the whole thing up. Andrew’s takeawaysFind an independent, objective, knowledgeable third party to help pick a business partner.Separate the business idea from the person in charge of bringing it to life. Actionable adviceIf you are going to invest with your friend, you are emotionally engaged, and that’s dangerous. Bring somebody else to play the bad guy, someone who can make tough decisions and keep emotions in check if you cannot take the emotion out. Fabrizio’s recommendationsFabrizio recommends reading a lot—both fiction and nonfiction—to open up new possibilities and perspectives. He also recommends listening to other business leaders to learn from their...

    44 min
  7. Enrich Your Future 24: Why Smart People Do Dumb Things

    FEB 10

    Enrich Your Future 24: Why Smart People Do Dumb Things

    In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 24: Why Do Smart People Do Dumb Things? LEARNING: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Change the criteria you use to select managers.   “There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and man’s capacity for stupidity.”Larry Swedroe  In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks. Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 24: Why Do Smart People Do Dumb Things? Chapter 24: Why Do Smart People Do Dumb Things?In this chapter, Larry discusses why investors still make mistakes despite multiple SEC warnings. The past performance delusionLarry explains that it’s normal for most investors to make mistakes when investing, often due to behavioral errors like overconfidence. Being overconfident can cause investors to take too much risk, trade too much, and confuse the familiar with the safe. Those are explainable errors. However, there’s one mistake that Larry finds hard to explain. Most investors ignore the SEC’s required warning that accompanies all mutual fund advertising: “Past performance does not guarantee future results.” Despite an overwhelming body of evidence, including the annual S&P’s Active Versus Passive Scorecards, that demonstrates that active managers’ past mutual fund returns are not prologue and the SEC’s warning, investors still flock to funds that have performed well in the past. Today’s underperforming manager may be tomorrow’s outperformerAccording to Larry, various researchers have found that the common selection methodology is detrimental to performance. The greater benchmark-adjusted return to investing in ‘loser funds’ over ‘winner funds’ is statistically and economically large and robust to reasonable variations in the evaluation and holding periods and standard risk adjustments. Additionally, the standard practice of firing managers who have recently underperformed actually eliminates those managers who are more likely to outperform in the future. Why Are Warnings Worthless?Larry quotes the study “Worthless Warnings? Testing the Effectiveness of Disclaimers in Mutual Fund Advertisements,” which provided some interesting results. The authors found that people viewing the advertisement with the current SEC disclaimer were just as likely to invest in a fund and had the exact expectations regarding a fund’s...

    29 min
  8. Jimmy Milliron - Lessons From Love, Money, and Missed Opportunities

    FEB 3

    Jimmy Milliron - Lessons From Love, Money, and Missed Opportunities

    BIO: James “Jimmy” Milliron is Co-Founder & President of National Brokerage Atlantic, specializing in Wealth Enhancement, Estate Planning, and Asset Protection. STORY: Jimmy wanted to invest $100,000 in Bitcoin, but when he couldn’t find an easy way to do it, he bought a car instead. LEARNING: Research and learn all you can about investment opportunities before investing.   “Don’t be afraid to pick up the phone and make a few calls. There’s nothing like picking up the phone and talking to a real person on the other end instead of just texting them.”Jimmy Milliron  Guest profileJames “Jimmy” Milliron is Co-Founder & President of National Brokerage Atlantic, specializing in Wealth Enhancement, Estate Planning, and Asset Protection. An insurance veteran, he previously served as Executive Vice President at NexTier Bank, building a $400 million premium finance portfolio. He holds a BA from VMI and various securities and insurance licenses. Worst investment everJimmy’s worst investment is a mix between marrying a second wife and buying a car in 2016. He invested many resources in his second marriage, but it did not last that long. When Jimmy married his second ex-wife, he wanted to invest about $100,000 in Bitcoin. But he was busy and did not have time to research and learn more about Bitcoin. When Jimmy could not find an easy way to do it, he purchased a car instead with that cash. Lessons learnedGo the extra mile in research and learning about investment opportunities before investing.Consider all the investment options available. Actionable adviceIf you’re young, seek advice from a mentor or your parents about what they would do instead of arbitrarily investing in a make-me-feel-good investment. Their guidance can be invaluable in navigating the complex world of investments. Jimmy’s recommendationsJimmy recommends reading Donald Trump’s Art of the Deal as a valuable resource for negotiation and decision-making. No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsJimmy’s number one goal for the next 12 months is losing weight. Parting words  “Thank you very much. Andrew and I wish everyone well.”Jimmy Milliron  [spp-transcript]   Connect with Jimmy MillironLinkedInWebsite Andrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points Andrew’s online programsValuation Master Classa...

    23 min
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    About

    Welcome to My Worst Investment Ever podcast hosted by Your Worst Podcast Host, Andrew Stotz, where you will hear stories of loss to keep you winning. In our community, we know that to win in investing you must take the risk, but to win big, you’ve got to reduce it. Your Worst Podcast Host, Andrew Stotz, Ph.D., CFA, is also the CEO of A. Stotz Investment Research and A. Stotz Academy, which helps people create, grow, measure, and protect their wealth. To find more stories like this, previous episodes, and resources to help you reduce your risk, visit https://myworstinvestmentever.com/

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