Afford Anything Cumulus Podcast Network

#526: Recorded LIVE on stage at the Morningstar Conference in Chicago! We chat with behavioral finance professor Meir Statman. He breaks down the differences between standard finance and behavioral finance, making it clear that understanding human behavior is an essential part of investing.
Statman starts by explaining that standard finance assumes people are rational. They make decisions purely based on logic and aim to maximize wealth. However, behavioral finance sees people as normal, not always rational. We often act on emotions and cognitive shortcuts. For instance, people might prefer receiving dividends over selling shares, even if both result in the same financial gain. This is because dividends feel like income, while selling shares feels like dipping into savings.
He uses a great metaphor to explain how investors view their portfolios. Think of a dinner plate: behavioral investors like their investments separated, like mashed potatoes on one side, vegetables on another, and steak in the middle. Rational investors don’t care if it’s all blended together because they only focus on the total nutrients. This shows that normal investors have different needs and want to balance safety with growth.
Statman talks about the importance of diversification. He recalls a lunch with Harry Markowitz, the father of Modern Portfolio Theory, who supported the idea of having a mix of safe and risky investments. Markowitz himself had municipal bonds to avoid poverty and stocks to grow wealth. Diversifying helps investors manage risk and meet both their safety and growth needs.
We then dive into how people manage money across their life cycle. Statman points out that young people know they need to save but are tempted to spend. They often control this urge by putting money into retirement accounts like 401(k)s. As people get older, they become so good at saving that they sometimes forget to spend and enjoy their money. Statman gives a funny example of his mother-in-law, who refused to replace an old sofa because she didn’t want to dip into her savings.
Statman also touches on asset pricing and market efficiency. He explains that while traditional finance focuses solely on risk, behavioral finance considers other factors like social responsibility. Some investors are willing to accept lower returns to stay true to their values. Additionally, he argues that market prices do not always reflect true value, and it’s hard to predict when they will.
Towards the end, we discuss the broader aspects of wellbeing. Statman emphasizes that financial wellbeing is just one part of a happy life. Family, health, work, and community are also crucial. He believes financial advisors should help clients achieve overall life wellbeing, not just financial success.
For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode526

Timestamps
Note: Timestamps vary on individual listening devices based on advertising run times.
1:23 - Explain the differences between standard and behavioral finance.
4:30 - Discuss Harry Markowitz's influence on modern investment strategies.
6:08 - Highlight life cycle investing and saving/spending behaviors over a lifetime.
10:02 - Explore mental accounting and differentiating between income and capital.
11:14 - Talk about common trading mistakes due to cognitive errors.
14:26 - Discuss utilitarian, expressive, and emotional benefits of financial decisions.
17:41 - Explain the difference between System 1 and System 2 thinking.
21:39 - Discuss how emotions and moods impact investment decisions.
25:59 - Explore the concept of regret and how it affects financial decisions.
30:21 - Emphasize the importance of human touch in financial advising.
44:00 - Discuss the impact of AI on different industries and investment decisions.
48:24 - Highlight the need to balance financial wellbeing with overall life wellbeing.
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We chat with renowned financial advisor Michael Kitces at the Morningstar Investor Conference in Chicago.

Kitces answers a big question: Is the economy worse than we think? He explains that a few big companies like Nvidia, Meta, and Alphabet are holding up the S&P 500. But this doesn’t mean the economy is bad. It's common for a small group of companies to drive the market. Since it’s hard to predict which companies will do well, he stresses the need for diversification.

Kitces tells us to focus on long-term growth instead of trying to time the market. He shares a famous quote from economist John Maynard Keynes: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." This means it’s better to invest broadly and wait for the market to grow over time.

Kitces also says that career development is important. He believes boosting your income through career advancements can have a bigger impact on your financial health than trying to get the highest returns on your investments. He says, "Spending more time focusing on my career and getting a raise... will actually be more meaningful than trying to improve the returns on my own money."

We discuss the importance of index investing and proper asset allocation. Kitces advises owning a diversified portfolio that includes international and small-cap funds. Even if these funds aren’t performing well in the short term, diversification helps spread risk and capture growth from different sectors and markets.

Kitces talks about the cyclical nature of markets. Some people worry that the market will go down just because it’s been up for a long time. He explains that markets don’t "die of old age." Many factors influence market cycles, and it’s hard to predict when a downturn will happen. This reinforces the idea that staying invested and diversified is usually the best strategy.

Finally, we talk about inflation and interest rates. Kitces explains that it’s hard to predict when inflation will return to the Fed’s target rate of 2 percent. This means that interest rates might stay high for a while. It’s important to keep a long-term perspective and not make drastic changes based on short-term market movements.

This episode offers practical advice on investment strategies, the importance of diversification, and why focusing on your career can be more beneficial than trying to outsmart the market. Kitces’ insights help anyone who wants to reach financial freedom.

Timestamps
[Note: Time codes will vary on individual listening devices based on advertising run times.]

1:23 - Becoming a famous financial advisor.
2:08 - Role of a small number of companies in holding up the S&P 500.
5:11 - NVIDIA's role in AI and cryptocurrency.
7:38 - Importance of diversification.
11:27 - Irrationality and efficiency of markets.
16:26 - Role of international and small-cap funds in diversification.
18:10 - Impact of regulatory frameworks on AI development.
32:11 - Demographic advantages of emerging markets.
40:01 - Cyclical nature of markets and investor fears.
51:30 - Inflation and wage growth.
For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode525
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#524: Mark and his partner will soon inherit an IRA worth over a quarter million dollars. With today’s elevated interest rates, would throwing it all at a primary residence be the smartest play? 

An anonymous caller and his girlfriend are musicians who dream of building a home with a monetizable recording studio. How do they untangle personal wants from business needs?

Will feels stumped about the options in his defined benefit pension plan. When should he choose a guaranteed annuity over a lump sum payment? 

Former financial planner Joe Saul-Sehy and I tackle these three questions in today’s episode.
Enjoy!
P.S. Got a question? Leave it at https://affordanything.com/voicemail

For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode524
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#523: How much is an hour of your time worth?
Google's Executive Productivity Advisor , Laura Mae Martin, joins us to answer that question.
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#522: Emily Anne is worried about her obsessive tracking behavior. She’s in great financial shape but struggles to shake the constant compulsion to check her accounts. What should she do?

An anonymous caller and his partner plan to use geo-arbitrage to retire early before reaching their financial independence number. Can they have their cake and eat it too?

Kevin and his wife are having second thoughts about their Delaware Statutory Trust (DST) real estate investments. How do they back out without compromising their estate plan?

Former financial planner Joe Saul-Sehy and I tackle these three questions in today’s episode.

Enjoy!

P.S. Got a question? Leave it at https://affordanything.com/voicemail

For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode522
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If you're a longtime listener, you'll enjoy this candid, behind-the-scenes conversation about entrepreneurship and growth between Paula Pant and former financial advisor and Stacking Benjamins host Joe Saul-Sehy.
For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode521
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