Top Traders Unplugged Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Michael Neubauer and Joseph Waldstein from SMN Investment Services, a Vienna, Austria-based systematic trend following manager with a 28-year track record. Michael and Joseph explain how they initially got interested in trend following and how their systems have evolved over the years. Moreover, the discuss why trading many different markets – as many as possible – is important for their approach, and that the inclusion of synthetic markets such as spreads and baskets as well as less liquid exotic/alternative markets improves SMN’s risk-adjusted returns. Last but not least, Michael and Joseph explain why they trade VIX futures and why this is a market they trade with a different methodology given the mean-reversion pattern of variance, and how they are monitoring this market – and potentially exiting open positions - on an hourly basis.
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Joseph on LinkedIn.
Follow Michael on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:18 - Introduction to Michael Neubauer and Joseph Waldstein
05:52 - How did they learn about trend following?
14:18 - The perfect match?
15:12 - What drove their decision to discretionary overlays?
16:52 - What is causing dispersion in the trend following...

Together with Richard Brennan, we discuss the optimal way of doing trend following and how to find the optimal set of rules to use in different market regimes, how to examine market states through Markov models and how artificial intelligence will impact trend following and make short-term trading incredibly competitive. Lastly, we ask ChatGPT what the optimal way of doing trend following is.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?
04:03 - Industry performance update
07:50 - Q1, Dennis: Given the nature of lengthy hold periods, do you recommend trading cash CFD's accounting for the overnight costs?
11:40 - Q2, Ramki: Using ATR for position sizing when backtesting a trend following system
14:47 - Optimal rules to use in different kinds of market regimes
18:46 - How to use Markov models and mathematical algorithms to optimize trend following strategies
41:17 - Is trend following threatened by AI?
51:39 - "ChatGPT, what is the optimal way of doing trend following?"
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. a...

In this episode, we speak with Charles Duhigg, a renowned author and writer for The New Yorker, who won the 2013 Pulitzer Prize for exploratory journalism. His book, "The Power of Habit," spent three years on the New York Times bestseller list. Charles joins us to discuss his new book, "Supercommunicators: How to Unlock the Secret Language of Connection." Our conversation centers around the importance of effective communication in personal and professional relationships, including in the investment industry. Charles explains how to become a "supercommunicator" and outlines the four rules for meaningful conversations. He highlights the types of questions top communicators ask and what we can say or do to make our conversations more meaningful and productive. Finally, we explore the unique rules of communication in the digital age and the distinction between communication and manipulation.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Charles on LinkedIn and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:05 - Introduction to Charles Duhigg
06:30 - Every conversation is a negotiation
09:21 - It takes two to tango?
11:09 - The importance of listening
13:42 - The...

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer where we discuss the outlook for inflation and why Andrew believes there is an existential crisis in macro economic modelling. We then touch on the question "if trend followers might be the only true short sellers left" as well as how to deal with the lag effect when using replication models. We round off our conversation discussing why Andrew believes we should all “share the trend following pie” and why the managed futures space is stalling when it comes to AuM, why he believes that money is “packed anxiety” for most people, why the ETF space needs an injection of positivity and much more.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:44 - What has caught our attention recently?
03:04 - Is what we thought was "normal" Real Yields actually not normal?
09:30 - Are the trend followers the only true short sellers left?
19:09 - How do CTAs react to the lower prices?
21:35 - Industry performance update
23:00 - Q1, Joe: How do you deal with the lag effect in replication models?
32:36 - Let's share the trend following pie
40:38 - The disadvantages of the institutional world
43:56 - Why is the managed futures space not growing?
49:49 - A crazy story from Andrew
56:26 - Are low-cost offers killing the industry?
01:02:39 - The ETF costs dont add up?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever...

Today, Cem and I welcome Bob Elliott, the founder of Unlimited Funds and former right-hand man to Ray Dalio at Bridgewater. Bob shares what he learned from his decade at Bridgewater and discusses the unique income-led economic expansion currently happening in the US, contrasting it with typical credit-driven expansions. He also explains why most investors are wrongly positioned in today's macro landscape and how they can create a balanced and diversified portfolio. Bob emphasizes the importance of optimizing portfolio allocation to protect against market volatility and unpredictability, and he discusses how to gain access to alternative investments, along with the challenges these assets present. Finally, Cem provides an update on his outlook for 2024.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Bob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:42 - What Bob learnt from working close to Ray Dalio?
04:24 - The secret to Bridgewaters success
07:17 - Elliott's perspective on the current global macro framework
10:46 - The outlook for interest rates
15:31 - Is inflation here to stay?
20:48 - The outlook for asset allocation
25:48 - The role of demographics
30:04 - A collective memory
32:53 - Advice for achieving a balanced and diversified portfolio
36:37 - Elliott's approach to diversification
42:22 - How to get access to...

Together with Katy Kaminski, we dive deep into the ETF space to better understand how you can utilize a new wave of ETFs as an investor. Katy describes the transition many Trend Following managers have gone through to get into the ETF space and how you can integrate the Trend Following ETFs in your own portfolio. We discuss if or how due diligence in the ETF space may be different from traditional due diligence and the different paths into the ETF space managers have chosen. We also discuss fee considerations when building ETF models and how to choose the right replicator, and if we are likely to have too many firms replicating the same few CTA indices. We end our conversation with some thoughts on how AI will impact the trend following industry and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - What has been on our radar recently?
02:56 - Industry performance update
07:41 - Our thoughts on CTA offerings in the ETF space
13:40 - Is giving people more liquidity a good thing?
17:32 - Why include ETFs in your portfolio?
21:43 - Use cases for ETFs
25:00 - How does the due diligence process work in the ETF space?
28:58 - Are we becoming a Relative Return industry?
32:01 - Is the increasing trader anonymity a problem?
34:33 - The different paths into the ETF space
40:57 - How ETFs compare to classic managed futures products
43:30 - Should you...