Horns of a Dilemma

Texas National Security Review
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Brought to you by the Texas National Security Review, this podcast features lectures, interviews, and panel discussions at The University of Texas at Austin.

  1. 7. Juli

    25 Years of the US-China Commission: Taiwan, Tech Competition, and Over-the-Horizon Risks

    Twenty-five years after its founding, how has the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission shaped American strategic policy? In this episode, we feature a panel discussion examining the evolution of major power competition. Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens sits down with Randall Schriver (Chairman of the Board, Institute for Indo-Pacific Security) and Mike Kuiken (Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution and USCC Commissioner) to assess the shifting geopolitical landscape. The guests argue that the strategic environment has transitioned from early debates over human rights and market access to intense military coercion and sophisticated cyber operations, such as Volt Typhoon and Salt Typhoon. They analyze the critical 2027 Taiwan timeline, evaluating the island's central role in global semiconductor supply chains. Furthermore, Schriver and Kuiken explore how Beijing has successfully leveraged state resources to leapfrog Western innovation in biotech, pharmaceuticals, and quantum computing. They assert that sustaining deterrence requires policymakers to look beyond immediate crises and proactively address over-the-horizon technological risks. This event was co-sponsored by the Asia Policy Program, the Clements Center for National Security, and the Strauss Center for International Security and Law. Related Links: Full author bios and event details: The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission at 25: Still Crazy After All These Years Learn more about our research and analysis:  Texas National Security Review (TNSR)

    25 Years of the US-China Commission: Taiwan, Tech Competition, and Over-the-Horizon Risks

  2. 23. Juni

    Iran's Nuclear Tightrope: Between Power and Peril

    As the United States and Iran negotiate an end to recent hostilities, the strategic implications of Tehran's nuclear latency are more urgent than ever. In this episode of our podcast, Eric Brewer unpacks the realities of Iran as a nuclear threshold state. He argues that maintaining a threshold capability forces Tehran to walk a dangerous tightrope, balancing the perceived deterrence of adversaries against the severe peril of military escalation. The conversation offers a rigorous assessment of how nuclear latency alters conflict dynamics, shapes modern statecraft, and complicates regional stability in the Middle East. Read his recent TNSR article on the topic "What Good Is a Nuclear Threshold Capability? Lessons from Iran's Nuclear Program and Recent Regional Conflict." Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning

    Iran's Nuclear Tightrope: Between Power and Peril

  3. 10. Juni

    New Tech, Old Traps: The Persistent Pitfalls in Military Innovation

    National security scholar Herbert S. Lin joins us to discuss his latest TNSR article, "On Optimism About New Military Technologies." Lin argues that political incentives and cognitive traps like the "fallacy of the last move" often blind planners to the complex, systemic realities of new capabilities. He also maps out the crucial distinction between artifactual hardware and architectural technologies like AI. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest, PhD Producer: Jordan Morning

    New Tech, Old Traps: The Persistent Pitfalls in Military Innovation

  4. 27. Mai

    The Balance of Control and Vulnerability: Cyber and Nuclear Risks

    Dr. Jacquelyn Schneider joins us to discuss her article, "Cyber Operations and Nuclear Stability: Networked Instability." Moving beyond Hollywood analogies and pop-culture fears, Schneider argues that common understandings of how cyber operations impact nuclear stability are often misguided. Throughout the conversation, she unpacks three specific pathways to escalation—deliberate, inadvertent, and accidental—and applies percolation theory to explain how the structure of nuclear networks dictates their vulnerability. Schneider explores the critical trade-offs between centralization, efficiency, and resilience, warning that as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) networks become more entangled with artificial intelligence, the risks of data manipulation increase. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens & Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning

    The Balance of Control and Vulnerability: Cyber and Nuclear Risks

  5. 13. Mai

    Challenges and Opportunities for AI in Military Systems

    Michael Horowitz discusses his recent TNSR article, "Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Strategic Stability." We tackle misconceptions about AI, how militaries have long used algorithms, and why use cases and data matter—especially when nuclear applications rely on simulated data. He examines human-machine teaming, automation bias and algorithm aversion, and risks from faster, "machine-speed" conflict, particularly for states with unstable second-strike capabilities. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning

    Challenges and Opportunities for AI in Military Systems

  6. 29. Apr.

    Beyond the Hype: The Reality of Precision-Strike Weapons in Ukraine

    Cameron Tracy joins to discuss his TNSR article on "technological surprise" and "normalization through use" in the Russo-Ukrainian war. He explains how forecasting about warfare often overweights extreme scenarios and is reinforced by professional and organizational incentives, producing hype with little accountability. We discuss drones, Russia's failure to gain air superiority, and four case studies: hypersonic-associated missiles (Kinzhal, Tsirkon) intercepted by Patriot systems, the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile's quick normalization after alarmist reactions, and Russia's effective UMPK glide bomb kits. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning

    Beyond the Hype: The Reality of Precision-Strike Weapons in Ukraine

  7. 15. Apr.

    Psychological Biases in the Era of Nuclear Weapons and AI

    Political psychologist Rose McDermott discusses her article on how systematic judgment biases can undermine nuclear deterrence and strategic stability, especially under emerging technologies like AI. McDermott explains Kahneman's Type 1 (fast, intuitive) versus Type 2 (slow, analytical) thinking and how four biases—overconfidence, the planning fallacy, the illusion of validity, and the prominence effect—can distort leaders' crisis decisions, probability judgments, and security trade-offs. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning

    Psychological Biases in the Era of Nuclear Weapons and AI

  8. 1. Apr.

    Understanding Schelling's Nuclear Paradigms with Francis J. Gavin

    Francis J. Gavin, chair of the TNSR editorial board, joins us to discuss his article, "Strategic Stability and Its Limits: Reflections on Schelling." Gavin explains why Thomas Schelling remains foundational to nuclear strategy despite being an economist, and argues that "strategic stability" is often invoked without clear definition. He highlights tensions between mutual vulnerability and US extended deterrence and nonproliferation goals, and describes contradictions between Schelling's writings on arms control and coercion. Gavin critiques simplified historical lessons about surprise attack and inadvertent war shaping stability theory, traces how Cold War political constraints drove US nuclear posture, and urges policymakers to put politics and state interests first when assessing nuclear risks and emerging technologies such as AI, cyber, autonomy, and biotechnology. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning

    Understanding Schelling's Nuclear Paradigms with Francis J. Gavin
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Brought to you by the Texas National Security Review, this podcast features lectures, interviews, and panel discussions at The University of Texas at Austin.

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    Texas National Security Review
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