Think Macro by H2O AM

H2O Asset Management
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Think Macro: a podcast by H2O Asset Management where we go beyond the headlines to explore the forces shaping the global economy. Each episode offers a deep dive into macroeconomic trends, long-term shifts, and the strategic dynamics driving markets. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

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  1. Three Worlds, Three Trajectories : Mid-Year Outlook

    23. Juni

    Three Worlds, Three Trajectories : Mid-Year Outlook

    Six months in, and the macro picture looks nothing like a quiet year. In this mid-year review, Vincent Chailley, CIO at H2O AM Group & Monaco S.A.M., sits down with Thomas Delabre, Portfolio Manager and macro specialist, to take stock of a first half shaped by the Iran war, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the return of the AI theme with a vengeance. Three worlds, three very different stories - a resilient Europe with no real growth engine, a US walking an increasingly fine line, and an Asia quietly accumulating structural advantages the market is still underestimating. Where do we stand, and what comes next? This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer, or a solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell securities, related financial instruments, or other products, or to engage in a trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the referenced author(s) as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Before investing in a product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits, and the suitability of such products, and should consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may rise or fall, and that past performance is not indicative of future results. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

    48 Min.
  2. War in Iran : US Blunder & Grumpy Dollar

    30. Apr.

    War in Iran : US Blunder & Grumpy Dollar

    In this new episode of ThinkMacro presented by Babak Abrar, Vincent Chailley (CIO of H2O AM Group and H2O Monaco S.A.M), discusses the macroeconomic fallout from the conflict in Iran and its implications for global growth and markets. Behind the immediate shock, the discussion dives into the growing vulnerabilities of the US economy - from constrained fiscal and monetary buffers to softening consumer confidence - and explores whether the dollar’s long-standing dominance as the world’s reserve currency might finally be challenged. A timely and in-depth analysis of shifting global dynamics and what they could mean for investors. This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

    28 Min.
  3. Japan emerges from the shadows: over a decade of Abenomics and the end of deflation

    4. März

    Japan emerges from the shadows: over a decade of Abenomics and the end of deflation

    In this episode of ThinkMacro, Vincent Chailley, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of H2O AM Group, explores the transformation of Japan’s economy after three decades of deflation and stagnation. He traces the country’s evolution from the 1980s bubble collapse through Abenomics reforms to today’s return of sustainable, organic growth. The episode examines how deep structural changes in labor markets, governance, and fiscal policy have reshaped Japan’s economic foundations, while analysing the implications for interest rates, currency dynamics, and financial markets. The key message: Japan has finally escaped deflation, but investors should expect a very different macro environment ahead. This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

    16 Min.
  4. The U.S economy's artificial high

    22. Jan.

    The U.S economy's artificial high

    Fueled by stimulus and debt, the U.S. economy appears resilient — but the foundations may be far weaker than they seem. Vincent Chailley, H2O AM Group CIO breaks down the drivers of this artificial high and the risks behind it: how long can America sustain its growth on borrowed momentum? This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

    32 Min.
  5. 2026: towards a multi-engine world

    19.12.2025

    2026: towards a multi-engine world

    Between the loss of effectiveness of economic policies in the United States, European resilience, China's transition and the rise of emerging markets, our new episode of Think Macro explores the macroeconomic dynamics that are reshaping the global balance. A two-way discussion with Vincent Chailley, CIO of H2O AM Group, and Thomas Delabre, portfolio manager and macro specialist, on a more diverse world, where growth no longer depends on a single engine. This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

    49 Min.
  6. When long-term yields challenge central banks

    20.11.2025

    When long-term yields challenge central banks

    In this episode of Think Macro, Vincent Chailley, CIO of H2O AM Group, explores an unusual market dynamic: central banks are cutting policy rates, yet long-term yields keep rising. This reversal is no coincidence - it reflects investors demanding a higher term premium in response to renewed concerns over debt sustainability, persistent inflation, and weakening institutional credibility.We analyse why this shift matters, how it constrains economic policy, and what it could mean for investors and developed economies in the years ahead. This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

    20 Min.
  7. The AI innovation cycle: invest now or die later

    16.10.2025

    The AI innovation cycle: invest now or die later

    In this episode of Think Macro, Vincent Chailley, Group CIO of H2O AM, analyses the global AI investment boom and its macroeconomic implications. As trillions flow into data centres and big tech races to dominate the future, can these colossal investments truly extend US growth, or are they masking the next slowdown? The AI Innovation Cycle: Invest Now or Die Later explores whether today’s technological revolution is a sustainable driver of productivity or a costly illusion of momentum. This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

    28 Min.
  8. Stability achieved, fragile growth: Europe at a Crossroads

    29.08.2025

    Stability achieved, fragile growth: Europe at a Crossroads

    Europe has gained resilience since the sovereign debt crisis: a stabilising common currency, low unemployment, and debt held largely by domestic institutions. Yet behind this reassuring façade, growth remains stagnant at barely above 1% per year. Declining competitiveness is gradually undermining the continent’s commercial independence.   In light of this, the challenge is clear: Europe must revive productivity and innovation to break free from inertia - otherwise, it risks increasing dependence on external global powers. This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

    19 Min.
  9. The End of One Model, the Rise of Another? American Exceptionalism in question

    04.07.2025

    The End of One Model, the Rise of Another? American Exceptionalism in question

    After decades of US economic exceptionalism, driven by consumption, innovation, and financial dominance, cracks are appearing in the model. The return of inflation is constraining the Fed in its ability to sufficiently ease financial conditions in a downturn, and the US Treasury in its capacity to stimulate the economy without triggering a negative reaction from investors.   With fewer economic levers at its disposal, the US appears naturally headed for a slowdown, an outcome that may not necessarily be bad news for the rest of the world.   Meanwhile, China is asserting itself more strategically. Having already reduced its trade dependence on the U.S., it possesses the tools to transform its economy toward a model more focused on consumption rather than manufacturing. This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

    40 Min.
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Think Macro: a podcast by H2O Asset Management where we go beyond the headlines to explore the forces shaping the global economy. Each episode offers a deep dive into macroeconomic trends, long-term shifts, and the strategic dynamics driving markets. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

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  • Erstellt von
    H2O Asset Management
  • Jahre aktiv
    2025 - 2026
  • Folgen
    9
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