Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Jack Farley

Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.

  1. Why Generative AI Still Can’t Trade | David Wright on How Quant Alpha Actually Is Done With Machine Learning, Decision Trees, and Gradient Boosting

    4 HRS AGO

    Why Generative AI Still Can’t Trade | David Wright on How Quant Alpha Actually Is Done With Machine Learning, Decision Trees, and Gradient Boosting

    This interview is brought to you by Pictet Asset Management. To learn more about Pictet AI-Enhanced  International Equity ETF ($PQNT), click here: https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/ To learn more about Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF ($PQUS), click here: https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/  Jack Farley sits down with David Wright, co-head of Quantitative Investments at Pictet Asset Management, to  discuss the machine learning techniques his team uses in their $30 billion quant franchise, and the degree to  which AI has impacted serious quantitative investing. Wright explains why he prefers to utilize many decision trees and use gradient boosting rather than Generative AI to generate return forecasts, citing the need to avoid  "hallucinations" and ensure models remain interpretable. The conversation explores their sophisticated  investment process, which analyzes over 400 features, including accounting data, market trends, and analyst  sentiment, to predict relative stock performance over 20-day horizons. These strategies, which now are included  in new ETFs $PQNT (Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF) and $PQUS (Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity  ETF) are designed as "passive replacements," aiming to maintain a Beta of 1.0 while aiming to deliver an  additional 1–2% annual outperformance over the relevant benchmarks, S&P 500 and MSCI EAFE indices. Finally,  Wright addresses the common "black box" misconception of quantitative finance, advocating instead for a "crystal  box" approach that provides full transparency into the economic rationale behind every trade. Recorded April 21,  2026. For important information about the fund, please click: https://etf.am.pictet.com/”  Important Information  Before investing, carefully consider the fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. This and  other information can be found in the fund’s prospectus or, if available, the summary prospectus, which  may be obtained by calling (855) 994-4778 or visiting www.pictet.com/etf. Read it carefully before investing.  (In Italic or Bold)   Investing in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The fund's principal  investment risks include Artificial Intelligence Models and Data Risk, Non-Diversification Risk, Convertible  Securities Risk, Rights and Warrants Risk, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Risk and Sustainability & ESG  Data Risk. For additional information about these and other fund risks, please refer to the "Principal Investment  Risks" section of the prospectus.  ETFs are subject to additional risks that do not apply to conventional mutual funds, including the risks that the  market price of an ETF's shares may trade at a premium or discount to its net asset value, an active secondary  trading market may not develop or be maintained, or trading may be halted by the exchange in which they trade,  which may impact an ETF's ability to sell its shares. Shares of any ETF are bought and sold at market price (not  NAV) and are not individually redeemed from the ETF. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns.  Foreside fund services, LLC, distributor.  Definitions of terms used in the interview:  1. S&P 500 Index  The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) is a market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly  traded companies in the United States. It is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities.  Because it is weighted by market value, larger companies have a greater impact on the index's performance than  smaller ones.  2. MSCI EAFE Index  The MSCI EAFE Index is a stock market index that tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap securities  across developed markets around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The acronym stands for Europe,  Australasia, and the Far East. It is commonly used as a benchmark for international equity funds. 3. Alpha  Alpha represents the "excess return" of an investment relative to the return of a benchmark index. It is a measure  of performance on a risk-adjusted basis. "Positive Alpha: indicates the investment outperformed its benchmark  after accounting for risk and "Negative Alpha" indicates the investment underperformed relative to the  benchmark.  4. Beta  Beta measures the volatility—or systematic risk—of a security or portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole  (usually the S&P 500, which has a Beta of 1.0) A Beta > 1.0 indicates the investment is more volatile than the  market (e.g., if the market rises 10%, the investment might rise 12%) A Beta 1.0 indicates the investment is less  volatile than the market (e.g., if the market falls 10%, the investment might only fall 8%).  5. Basis Points (bps)  A Basis Point is a standard unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is  equal to 1/100th of 1%, or 0.01%.

    38 min
  2. Finding the Market’s Most Overlooked Macro Themes and Profiting from Global Volatility | Harris Kupperman

    4 DAYS AGO

    Finding the Market’s Most Overlooked Macro Themes and Profiting from Global Volatility | Harris Kupperman

    Monetary Matters listeners can save $1000 on their first-year subscription to KEDM Research with coupon code mm2026: https://kedm.com/?add-to-cart=4175&apply_coupon=mm2026 Harris Kupperman and Roderick van Zuylen join Monetary Matters to discuss the intersection of thematic macro trends and event-driven catalysts. They dives deep into the severe supply-demand imbalances creating massive tailwinds for the refining industry, alongside the political shifts making Latin American equities a highly lucrative trade. They also discuss the rising volatility driving commodity brokers like Marex, and why the eldercare sector is primed for a breakout due to a halt in new facility construction. Follow KEDM Research on X: https://x.com/KEDM_COM Follow Harris Kupperman on X: https://x.com/hkuppy Follow Roderick van Zuylen on X: https://x.com/roojoo3 Follow Max Wiethe on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Jack Farley on X: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:10 Refiners Theme Setup 02:06 Why Cracks Tightened 05:18 Picking Refiner Winners 08:26 Earnings Path Dependence 14:22 Analyst Estimates Mispriced 17:54 Latin America Tailwinds 20:57 Brazil Financials Bet 24:01 Finding Mispriced Setups 30:28 KEDM Offer 31:15 Long Vol Through Brokers 34:03 Marex and Stonex Tailwinds 34:33 Macro Drivers of Volumes 36:11 CFO Hedging Incentives 37:57 Prediction Markets Opportunity 39:32 Eldercare Theme Setup 44:53 When Themes Meet Catalysts 46:17 Investor Days as Signals 48:45 Fallen Angels Returns 53:15 AI Automation for Monitors 54:23 CEO Pay as a Tell 55:26 US Consumer Weakness This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice. Any views expressed are the personal opinions of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of their employers, affiliates, clients, or any related parties. Listeners should conduct their own research and consult their own advisers before making any investment or financial decision. The appearance of any speaker, guest, company, product, or service on this podcast does not constitute an endorsement, recommendation, or approval by any participant or third party. Any investments discussed are illustrative only and are not intended to reflect any actual portfolio. Examples are meant to show aspects of an investment approach, and while some may highlight successful trades, not all trades are successful or profitable.

    1 hr
  3. Warren Pies: The Scramble for Compute Cures All Ills | Two Wolves of “Hockeysticking Earnings” and Hormuz Oil Shock (Plus Caliban)

    6 DAYS AGO

    Warren Pies: The Scramble for Compute Cures All Ills | Two Wolves of “Hockeysticking Earnings” and Hormuz Oil Shock (Plus Caliban)

    Request Access to Free Trial to Caliban, Warren’s new AI-powered research tool that automates complex data sourcing & institutional-grade charting for investors: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/monetary-matters In this episode, Warren Pies, founder of 314 Research and Caliban, joins the show to analyze the "two wolves" currently battling for control of the market: the transformative power of AI and the historic oil crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Pies details how an "agentic explosion" in AI and a massive scramble for compute are fueling an unprecedented earnings boom, with proprietary data showing that frontier models like Mythos are driving a legitimate, if lopsided, market advance. On the flip side, we explore the terrifying 10-million-barrel-per-day oil deficit caused by geopolitical blockades and why "managed demand destruction" has been the only force keeping prices from skyrocketing past $200. Despite these risks, Warren remains fundamentally bullish on equities, arguing that the AI-driven CapEx cycle and resilient fiscal stimulus are powerful enough to help the S&P 500 look through the energy nightmare. We also get an exclusive look at Caliban. Finally, Warren shares his tactical portfolio positioning, explaining his strategy for staying overweight in both stocks and oil commodities while remaining underweight in fixed income. Tune in to see how the S&P 500 reached the 7,000 target predicted in 2024 and why Warren believes the path to 8,000 remains intact. Recorded May 1st, 2026.

    1hr 11min
  4. Why Fundamentals Fail the New Economy | Jacob Pozharny on “Sentiment” Analysis’ Role in New Economy Stocks

    1 MAY

    Why Fundamentals Fail the New Economy | Jacob Pozharny on “Sentiment” Analysis’ Role in New Economy Stocks

    Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm In this episode of "Monetary Matters," Jacob Pozharny, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Bridgeway Capital Management, explains why traditional fundamental analysis often fails "new economy" stocks due to the rise of intangible assets like R&D and customer relationships. He details a bifurcated investment strategy that utilizes advanced sentiment analysis for high-tech sectors while maintaining a classic fundamental approach for "old economy" industries. The discussion highlights how the 2026 Iran war is currently creating significant market dislocations in global energy and shipping, offering unique "alpha hunting" opportunities identified through proprietary textual analysis of earnings calls. Pozharny argues that the most effective stock picking occurs in less efficient mid-cap and small-cap markets outside the U.S., where the potential return spread is significantly wider than in the S&P 500. Finally, he outlines his firm's market-neutral approach to building idiosyncratic return streams that remain uncorrelated to broader market direction by leveraging unique data such as buy-side borrow availability. Jacob is portfolio manager of Bridgeway Global Opportunities Fund (BRGOX). Recorded April 16, 2026. Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/jackfarley96  Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Disclaimer for today’s sponsor, Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: Past performance is not indicative of future results. An investment should not be made based solely on returns. Before investing you should carefully consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. This and other information is in the prospectus. Please read the prospectus carefully before you invest which can be found on unlimitedetfs.com/HFGM.  Distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC

    1hr 23min
  5. Jim Bianco on Division at the Fed and Jerome Powell’s Controversial Decision to Stay

    1 MAY

    Jim Bianco on Division at the Fed and Jerome Powell’s Controversial Decision to Stay

    Monetary Matters is now streaming daily as part of Monitoring the Situation. Join us live on X and YouTube from 4 to 5 PM ET Monday through Friday @MTSituation for live interviews and analysis breaking down the market’s most important situations. This is recording of a recent live interview from MTS. Jack Farley and Max Wiethe interview Jim Bianco of Bianco Research. The discussion covers Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's controversial decision to stay on after Kevin Warsh becomes Chairman. Bianco highlights the shift towards independent voting at the Fed, pointing to a recent dissents focused on easing bias language. Bianco also explores the economic impact of the continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and shares his market outlook, predicting elevated oil prices and trending higher interest rates. Follow Jim Bianco on X: https://x.com/biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley on X: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:10 Powell Stays Controversy 02:24 Fed Independence and Dissents 03:57 Investigation Deal Explained 09:04 Easing Bias Forward Guidance 13:55 Supreme Court and Fed Upheaval 19:20 Earnings and Market Reaction 21:47 Oil Shock and Inflation Debate 25:47 Warsh Era Fed Outlook 32:13 Strait of Hormuz War Fallout 39:11 Trades for a Protracted War 41:30 Wrap Up and Where to Follow

    42 min
  6. SpaceX IPO: Why This Hedge Fund Manager is Fading the Hype | Moez Kassam

    30 APR

    SpaceX IPO: Why This Hedge Fund Manager is Fading the Hype | Moez Kassam

    Monetary Matters is now streaming daily as part of Monitoring the Situation. Join us live on X and YouTube from 4 to 5 PM ET Monday through Friday @MTSlive for live interviews and analysis breaking down the market’s most important situations. This is recording of a recent live interview from MTS. Hosts Jack Farley and Max Wiethe are joined by Moez Kassam, the Chief Investment Officer of Anson Funds. Moez breaks down his strategy for generating alpha by acting as a contrarian and fading the crowd during times of rampant market speculation. In this episode, we cover: • The SpaceX IPO Rumors: Moez discusses the potential mechanics of the largest expected IPO in history and the rumors of early investor unlocks. He also details the "Day 9" trading strategy surrounding Nasdaq index inclusion. • The Massive Cannabis Opportunity: Learn why Anson Funds believes the U.S. cannabis sector could see a 400% move in a few years. Moez breaks down the DEA's descheduling process and the elimination of the restrictive 280E tax code. • Software and Activism: Why the indiscriminate selling of software stocks has created a massive opportunity for free cash flow investors and activist campaigns. • Navigating Emerging Tech: A candid assessment of AI, Space, and Quantum technologies. Moez explains why Quantum is facing a massive discount rate and why investors should be wary of the "me-too" space stocks. • Crypto & Private Credit: Insights from the recent Trump Crypto Conference and why the extreme negative sentiment around private credit makes its 10-15% yields highly attractive. Follow Moez Kassam on Instagram: @munchingmoez Follow Moez Kassam on X: https://x.com/MunchingMoez Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:10 SpaceX IPO Setup 05:49 Index Inclusion Trade 07:21 S-1 Filing Reality Check 08:32 Elon Rolls Up Businesses 12:12 Shorting Space Me Toos 13:35 AI, Space, Quantum Hype 16:18 Software Selloff and Activism 18:42 Cannabis Contrarian Bet 21:44 Descheduling Mechanics 24:30 AI & Semis: Crowded Trade? 26:10 Crypto Mood Shift 29:29 Media Activism Plays 31:16 Software Cash Flow vs Hype 34:49 Measuring Market Sentiment 37:51 Bitcoin Crowd Psychology 40:06 Shipping and Energy Contrarian 41:16 Canada: Gold & Oil Pulse 43:35 Process Over Predictions 45:50 Private Credit Negativity 46:34 Outro

    47 min
  7. From Soros to Old Farm: How to Identify the Market’s Top Thematic Risk-Takers | Kieran Cavanna | Old Farm Partners

    29 APR

    From Soros to Old Farm: How to Identify the Market’s Top Thematic Risk-Takers | Kieran Cavanna | Old Farm Partners

    This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN: https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-matters-and-other-peoples-money-listeners Kieran Cavanna, the founder and CIO of Old Farm Partners and former head of external managers at Soros Fund Management joins Other People’s Money to break down his high-conviction approach to thematic investing, explaining why "making the main thing the main thing" is the secret to capturing outsized returns in the public markets. From his time working under legendary macro investor Scott Bessent to his current focus at Old Farm Partners, Kieran shares how he identifies "asymmetric" opportunities where the upside is massive and the downside is protected. If you've ever wondered how the world’s most sophisticated allocators source managers and structure co-investments to beat the market, this is an interview you can't miss. Listen to the Thematic Investors Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTSvmgAOiFVttgxmUaO4hSgMxutOwyS9T Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:17 Soros External Managers 03:36 What Makes Great Managers 07:01 Spotting Skill Vs Luck 08:47 Risk Management 12:37 Geography and Benchmarks 15:21 Style Drift and Communication 18:57 Fees and Multi Strat Debate 22:30 Spinouts and Independence 26:47 Co-Investing in Public Markets 30:06 Allocator Base and Drawdown Focus 31:12 Family Office Allocators 32:13 Private Credit Shift 36:57 Big Launches Small Wins 38:40 AI CapEx Main Event 41:26 Defense Tech Next Theme 42:44 Asymmetry Not Binary 44:51 Cross Sector Blind Spots 49:51 Crowded Trades Unwind 52:58 Macro Themes Bottom Up 57:37 Risks and Hedging 59:42 Thematic Investors Podcast

    1hr 1min

Ratings & Reviews

4.8
out of 5
6 Ratings

About

Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.

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