Kontrarian Korner

Ben Kelleran
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Conversations on Investments, Finance, Macroeconomics, and Current Events https://www.kontrariankorner.com www.kontrariankorner.com

  1. Turning Point Brands

    44 MINS AGO

    Turning Point Brands

    Yesterday afternoon I had George Baxter on the podcast for the first time to talk about a very interesting opportunity, Turning Point Brands $TPB . George is the portfolio manager at Sabrepoint Capital Management in Dallas, and his fund is a large shareholder of TPB (I own a couple shares, so we are both biased). We got into the background for the stock, Tucker Carlson’s involvement with the ALP JV, why the stock has been cut in half over the last couple months, and why the opportunity is attractive if management can execute and continue to grow both FRE and ALP. Podcast Summary * The 30,000 foot view of the different segments of the business and the 50/50 ALP JV with Tucker Carlson. * How Turning Point compares to other CPG stocks and other tobacco stocks that have outperformed in the past. * Why the situation with the FDA is the main risk to be aware of. * The rapid growth in sales, new marketing agreements, and the quickly growing number of stores where you can find ALP and FRE. * Why that growth is temporarily squeezing margins but it will show up in the growth numbers in the future. * How the domestic manufacturing buildout will dramatically reduce costs and improve margins, and why that should be complete by the end of this year. * Recent analyst adjustments and why the stock has sold off violently in the last couple months. * The long term upside for people looking out until the end of the decade. * Book Recommendations: Understanding Behavioral Bias, A Guide to Improving Financial Decision Making by Daniel Krawczyk and George Baxter, The Sleuth Investor by Avner Mandelman, Engines That Move Markets by Alasdair Nairn. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    1hr 40min
  2. Kontrarian Korner #101 - Mike Ariza

    12 HRS AGO

    Kontrarian Korner #101 - Mike Ariza

    This morning I had Mike Ariza on the podcast for the first time. Mike has spent time in the Navy and he worked at the Chevron $CVX refinery in Richmond, California before spending time at Valero’s $VLO Benicia refinery as the Senior Control Board Supervisor. We talked about the recent shutdowns of multiple refineries, and why California is three to four weeks away from experiencing shortages on top of their already high prices. The federal government is apparently starting to get involved with the Defense Production Act, but we dove into the catastrophic chain reactions that could come from logistics and supply chains issues in California. You can find Mike on Twitter, but he has also been contributing to Gas Crisis, and recently wrote an Op-Ed piece for the California Globe. I would strongly recommend reading the PBF Energy $PBF letter to the state on the Gas Crisis website to see what the companies are saying about the current situation. Podcast Summary * The shutdowns of the Valero refinery in Benicia and the Phillips 66 $PSX refinery in Wilmington. * The shortages that are baked into the cake due to tanker travel times. * How the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has impacted Asian refineries, which supply 40% of California’s fuel. * The federal government getting involved with Section 303 of the Defense Production Act. * The impact on the military bases in the state, as well as the bases in Nevada. * How California’s energy policy over the last several decades has led to this point. * The number of refinery fires that have happened in the last couple months, and whether it is a coincidence or not. * Why this will impact other states ability to get fuel, including Nevada and parts of Arizona. * The chain reaction that could be set off at the ports and with supply chains if California starts experiencing fuel shortages. * Book Recommendation: Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    1hr 8min
  3. Kontrarian Korner #100 - J. Burden

    2 DAYS AGO

    Kontrarian Korner #100 - J. Burden

    Yesterday I had J. Burden on the podcast for the first time. He’s one of my favorite podcasts to listen to, and he’s always has great guests on. We went back and forth on everything from the economic environment, the lack of jobs and discrimination, and the rapidly changing political environment that we are living in. If you enjoy a good conversation about what younger generations think about the direction of the US, this one’s for you. You can find him on Twitter, as well as on his Substack below. Podcast Summary * The changing economic environment and the weak jobs market for the younger generation (especially white men), and the continued trend towards offshoring jobs. * How inflation has changed the math for car ownership, home ownership, and the cost of living in general. * How the polarization of younger generations is creating an unstable political situation. * Why you should never take the black pill. * The widening gap between young men and women, and other cultural problems. * The administration burning a lot of political capital in the Middle East for our greatest ally. * Why turnout is going to be a problem in the midterms. * How immigration and deportations are the key issues to watch to see where the country is headed over the next decade. * The administration burning a lot of political capital in the Middle East for our greatest ally. * Book Recommendation: Bothelford’s Gone by Edward McLaren. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    1hr 15min
  4. Kontrarian Korner #99 - Ron Dodson

    4 DAYS AGO

    Kontrarian Korner #99 - Ron Dodson

    On Thursday afternoon I had Ronald Dodson on the podcast for the first time. He runs a hedge fund in Texas, but also publishes on The American Mind for the Claremont Institute, Responsible Statecraft, and American Reformer. We talked about America’s recent adventures in the Middle East, what it means for markets, the problems Trump is facing with messaging and the midterms, and the increasing bifurcation of financial markets in a multipolar world. You can find Ron when he publishes, but he’s also worth a follow on Twitter and on Substack. Podcast Summary * The idea that the recent adventure in Iran could be the Suez moment for the US. * His critique of America’s role in recent events, what is going on in Lebanon, and * The level of the S&P as a matter of national security. * Dutch disease in the US with the dollar, and the hyperfinancialization of the system. * Why the current financial system is toast on a long enough timeframe, and the potential for debt monetization. * Why Europe will hit a crisis point before the US, and the built in advantages that the US has as far as geography and resources. * China’s weakness as far as supply chains and reliance on shipping lanes, and why China and Russia are natural rivals. * Why Taiwan will eventually be a part of China. * The bifurcation of commodities and financial markets, and the different spheres of influence in a multipolar world. * The messaging problem that the Trump administration has. * Why impeachment is coming early next year, and why Trump might get convicted. * The upcoming midterms, and why the Democrats are the best asset the Republicans have in potentially avoiding a bloodbath. * Why the CIA and the FBI need to be overhauled. * The deep state, Epstein, and other information that is still being hidden. * Why the US has a chance for a golden age in a couple decades, but only if we can navigate the next decade. * Book Recommendations: The Name Of The Rose by Umberto Eco and The Forever War by Joe Haldeman. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    1hr 22min
  5. Kontrarian Korner #98 - E.M. Burlingame

    16 APR

    Kontrarian Korner #98 - E.M. Burlingame

    Yesterday I had E.M. Burlingame on the podcast to get his perspective on what is going on in the Middle East. We talked about why he thinks there is a method to the madness in Iran, why the level of the S&P is a matter of national security, and the other chaos nodes around the world. We also covered the long term future for the US and the problems that we need to address with the economy, the population, and the political system. You can find EM on Substack and on Twitter. Podcast Summary * The method to the madness in the Middle East and why Trump is injecting chaos into the geopolitical chessboard. * How the financial system is built on algorithms that factor in centuries of risk modeling, and the controlled volatility creation we are seeing. * Why the S&P being elevated (and rising) is a matter of national security. * The problems facing Europe as far as the production of commodities and energy, and the problems they have as far as immigration. * What the US has to do to rewire the financial system and flush out the corruption and fraud, and why it starts at the local level. * Why we need to stop using GDP as a measure of success, and why 100 million people need to be sent back. * Why there is no incentive for the bureaucracy to enforce laws on the books and remove people from the country. * How a rewiring of the economic system to real production will naturally fix the relationship between men and women, and why 90% of women’s jobs are make work. * Why we need to nuke the healthcare and food industry, and why we need to make the Sherman Antitrust Act great again. * The chaos agents in Venezuela and Iran, and the other points of interest with the Strait of Malacca and Cuba that will probably be solved diplomatically. * Why Somalia and Canada are two other potential chaos nodes to watch. * The problem with the Trump administration’s messaging on recent events. * Book Recommendation: As Rome Burns by E.M. Burlingame (his first fiction novel). Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    59 min
  6. Kontrarian Korner #97 - Colonel Towner-Watkins

    15 APR

    Kontrarian Korner #97 - Colonel Towner-Watkins

    Yesterday I had Colonel Towner-Watkins on the podcast for the first time. She’s an expert on the history of the intelligence agencies and the international syndicate that has been shaping world events in the Post World War II era. We got into the recent events in the Middle East, how they are connected to the different factions that have been operating internationally for decades, and the illicit funding mechanisms of the intelligence agencies. You can find the Colonel on Twitter and on Rumble. Podcast Summary * The shaping and control mechanisms used by the intelligence agencies in the post World War II era. * How borders were drawn in the post World War II era to set up chaos nodes in the Middle East and Asia with the formation of Israel, Pakistan, and Formosa (Taiwan). * How the opium and cocaine trade was used as a funding mechanism for the intelligence agencies and the international syndicate. * How the large international corporations benefited from different operations and coups run by the intelligence agencies. * Why it was crucial to take Maduro alive during the Venezuela operation, and how he has extensive knowledge of this system. * The factions in Iran, the chaos node in Israel, and how the recent events in the Middle East show that Trump is targeting those outposts for the international syndicate. * How the intelligence agencies are interconnected, and how different “terrorist groups and regimes” were funded by Israel and other parts of the international syndicate. * How large insurance companies have become intelligence fronts, at least in part. * Lloyd’s of London, how they benefit from the implicit US guarantee of global shipping lanes, and their influence on maritime insurance as a piece on the geopolitical chessboard. * The reasoning behind the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and why Europe will cry uncle first due to their deindustrialization and lack of energy production. * Why the system always needs a boogeyman. That was the Soviet Union until the 90s, and now the boogeyman in the Middle East is Iran. * How the timing of the fentanyl explosion ties into the timing of pulling out of Afghanistan. * Where all of the recent events lead for the US, Europe, and the Middle East, and the back channel communications that have probably been going on with Russia and China. * DOGE, USAID, the National Endowment for Democracy, and targeting the NGO network of institutions and foundations. * Why you will need to see some significant movement in the next three months as far as arrests in order to avoid a wipeout in the midterms. * Book Recommendations: Operation Gladio: The Unholy Alliance Between the Vatican, the CIA, and the Mafia by Paul Williams, and NATO’s Secret Armies: Operation GLADIO and Terrorism in Western Europe by Daniele Ganser. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    1hr 22min
  7. Kontrarian Korner #96 - Melody Wright

    14 APR

    Kontrarian Korner #96 - Melody Wright

    Yesterday I had Melody Wright back on the podcast to talk about real estate, societal changes, and the media environment, among other things. We also took a couple detours into topics like AI and offshoring, the generational divide, and demographics. It was a fun conversation where we got into current events and talked about the slow moving Titanic that is the real estate market, but we also talked about some of the big picture problems facing the US and what we can do to fix them. You can find Melody and her work on her Substack as well as on Twitter. Podcast Summary * The 30,000 foot view of residential real estate, and why new homes are cheaper than existing homes today. * Affordability issues, interest rates, and what shrinking transaction volumes mean for the next couple years in the market. * Building inventories, migration trends, demographics, fertility rates, and other trends that will play a part in the real estate market. * The generational divide, median incomes, and why housing is more unaffordable than it has ever been. * Reality TV politics when it comes to immigration and deportations. * How society has changed since the 70s as more women entered the workforce, along with several other factors that lead to changes on the culture. * Why the recent wave of layoffs that is attributed to AI has more to do with offshoring after a wave of overhiring. * Why the current media environment is a double edged sword when it comes to changing narratives, but also the pervasive propaganda environment that we are in. * Book Recommendation: The Price Of Time by Edward Chancellor. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    1hr 10min
  8. Kontrarian Korner #95 - Rudy Havenstein & Robert (Infranomics)

    12 APR

    Kontrarian Korner #95 - Rudy Havenstein & Robert (Infranomics)

    On Friday afternoon I had Rudy Havenstein and Robert from Infranomics on the podcast. We talked about recent events in the Middle East and the disruptions that are coming, the political situation and midterms, and why the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place. I thought the most interesting part of the conversation was the back and forth on the political system. I wasn’t able to convince Rudy that the US should have a monarchy, but we all agreed that the system is very broken today. You can find Rudy’s Substack below, and he’s a must follow on Twitter. You can find Robert’s work on Twitter as well as his YouTube channel. Podcast Summary * How the recent events will feed into supply chains, inflation, and the complacency in financial markets. * The political interference with financial markets, and the pattern of jawboning the markets. * Why the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place, and why all roads lead to the big print. * Why they aren’t surprised by the effectiveness of the Iranian resistance and why Rudy thinks this could be a rerun of the Iraq war. * The problem with the mainstream media environment and the propaganda environment on social media. * How the midterm elections might turn out after the recent adventure in Iran and that abandonment of most of Trump’s campaign agenda. * Anarchotyranny, frontier justice, and fix it politics. * The push to reindustrialize the US and undoing some of the side effects of hyperfinancialization. * The potential for a completely different political system, and why the system can’t be reformed through the system. * The pros and cons of monarchy versus the current system. * Book Recommendation: Sinister Forces by Peter Levenda. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    1hr 42min
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About

Conversations on Investments, Finance, Macroeconomics, and Current Events https://www.kontrariankorner.com www.kontrariankorner.com

Information

  • Creator
    Ben Kelleran
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    132
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Kontrarian Korner
  • Show Website
    Kontrarian Korner

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