MORE UNINTENTIONALLY FUNNY AI SLOP SHOWNOTES. Peter Hoistead? Thanks Gemini. Thanks listeners. We love you. Buy CBCo it's excellent beer. The Conditional Release Program - Episode 185: Federal Election 2025 Post-Special Hosts: Joel Hill & Jack the Insider (Peter Hoistead) Overall Theme: A deep dive into the results and implications of the 2025 Australian Federal Election, focusing on Labor's historic victory, the Coalition's catastrophic loss, and the performance of minor parties and independents. Key Segments & Talking Points: (Part 1 - Approximate Timestamps based on original transcript, subject to adjustment) [00:00:00 - 00:01:23] Introduction & Election OverviewJoel laments being banned from betting on the election, particularly Labor's strong odds.Jack notes Joel would have won significantly, especially on Labor at $2.60.Historic Labor Win: Anthony "Albo" Albanese leads Labor to a significant victory.Libs sent into an "existential crisis."Albo is the first PM to be re-elected since John Howard in 2004.Largest Labor victory on a two-party preferred basis since John Curtin in 1943 (votes still being counted).Crucial Stat: The Albanese government is the only first-term government to have a swing towards it in Australian political history.[00:01:23 - 00:03:38] Significance of the Swing to LaborPrevious first-term governments (Howard '98, Hawke '84, Fraser '77, Whitlam '74, Menzies) all had swings against them when seeking a second term.Albo's government achieved an approximate 4% swing towards it (votes still being counted).Discussion points: Where it went right for Labor, and wrong for the Coalition, Greens, and Teals.Far-right "Cookers" performed terribly. Pauline Hanson's One Nation (FONY) might see minor representation.[00:03:38 - 00:05:11] Patreon & Sponsor Shout-outsReminder to support the podcast on Patreon: www.patreon.com/theconditionalreleaseprogram (for as little as $5/month).CB Co. Beer: Praised for their IPA and new Hazy XPA. Competition to win $100,000. Use code CRP10 for 10% off at cbco.beer.[00:05:11 - 00:08:52] Polling Inaccuracies & Liberal OptimismReiteration of the ~4% swing to Labor.Comparison of final poll predictions vs. actual results:Freshwater: Labor 51.5% (was Liberal pollster, told Libs they were close).Newspoll: 52.5% (Labor used their private polling).Essential: 53.5%.YouGov: 52.2% - 52.9%.Polling companies significantly underestimated Labor's vote, especially those advising the Coalition.The misplaced optimism at Liberal Party HQ on election night.[00:08:52 - 00:16:00] Specific Seat Results & Labor GainsGilmore (NSW South Coast): Fiona Phillips (Labor) won 55-45 (3-4% swing to her), despite Andrew Constance (Liberal) being the favourite.Bennelong (Howard's old seat): Jeremy Laxail (Labor) won 59-41 against Scott Young (problematic Liberal candidate), a 10% swing to Labor.Parramatta: Andrew Charlton (Labor) won 62-38 (was 53.47 in 2022).Aston (Victoria): Labor won in a historic by-election previously, now a 4% swing to the Labor candidate, winning 53-47.Boothby (SA): Louise Miller-Frost (Labor) achieved an 8% swing, holding the seat 61-39.Tangney (WA): Sam Lim (Labor, ex-cop & dolphin trainer) secured a 3% swing, now 56-44. Large Bhutanese diaspora noted.Leichhardt (FNQ): Labor's Matt Smith won 57-43 after Warren Entsch (LNP) retired (10% swing).Hunter (NSW): Dan Repiccioli (Labor) re-elected with 44% primary vote (5% swing on primary). Fended off Nats and One Nation (Stuart Bonds' inflated vote claims by "One Australia" on X).[00:16:00 - 00:18:49] Diversifying Parliament & Women in PoliticsPraise for non-lawyer backgrounds in Parliament (e.g., Dan Repiccioli, Sam Lim).Critique of the typical lawyer/staffer/union pathway.Labor's success in diversifying candidate backgrounds and increasing female representation.Liberals struggling with female representation despite some efforts. Discussion of potential quotas in the Liberal party and the backlash it would cause.Margaret Thatcher quote: "If you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman."[00:18:49 - 00:27:26] The Teals: Mixed Results & ChallengesInitial appearance of a Teal "romp" on election night.Bradfield (NSW North Shore): Teal Nicolette Boele (Burle/Bola) behind Liberal Giselle Kaptarian by 178 votes (updated during recording).Goldstein (VIC): Tim Wilson (Liberal) leading Zoe Daniel (Teal) by 925 votes. Wilson is likely back. Joel comments on Wilson's IPA association vs. his "gay, wet, mediocre, progressive side." Jack notes Wilson often highlights his sexuality.Jim Chalmers' quip about Tim Wilson: "Popular for all those who haven't met him."Kooyong (VIC): Monique Ryan (Teal) leading by 1002 votes (97,000 counted, ~8,000 postals to go). Redistribution added parts of Toorak, making it harder for Ryan.Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer: "Trust fund renter" controversy, owns multiple properties, London bolthole.Corflute wars in Kooyong: Hamer campaign's excessive use of A-frames, obstructing walkways, went to Supreme Court over council limits. Jack doubts the impact of corflutes.[00:27:26 - 00:31:28] Why Did the Teals Go Backwards?Liberal party invested heavily in Kooyong and Goldstein.Voters potentially preferring a local member who is a Minister or part of the government.Redistribution impact in Kooyong (addition of Toorak).Zali Steggall's success in Warringah partly due to "fruitcake" Liberal opponents like Katherine Deves.[00:31:28 - 00:40:37] The Greens: Significant LossesLost all lower house seats. Adam Bandt (leader) gone from Melbourne.Lost Brisbane (Max Chandler Mather) and Griffith back to Labor.Ryan (South Brisbane): Likely Labor win in a three-way contest.Greens will have no lower house representation.Key Reason: Housing policy standoff. Accused of holding up Labor's housing bill for over a year (affecting funding for domestic violence victims, homeless), pursuing "perfection" over compromise.[00:40:37 - 00:49:57] Deep Dive: Housing Policy ChallengesA major challenge for the Albanese government. Not an easy fix.Supply-side changes could devalue existing homes or slow growth, angering homeowners.Joel’s view: Subsidized housing (rent-to-own, means-tested) wouldn't touch the high-end market.Negative gearing: Not a quick fix; removing it overnight unlikely to change much; issue is supply.Homeowner expectations of property value growth.Construction industry at full tilt; skills shortages.CFMEU's role in skilled migration for construction.Free TAFE importance for reskilling/upskilling.Linton Besser (Media Watch) criticism of Labor "building" houses when they reconditioned unlivable ones – Joel argues this still increases supply.[00:49:57 - 00:59:16] Deep Dive: Childcare Policy & Global Economic HeadwindsChildcare another area for government focus.Labor's childcare policy: Rebates for high earners (e.g., $325k combined income).High cost of childcare; need for better pay for childcare workers (Labor delivered a pay spike).Ownership of childcare centers (Peter Dutton reference) and profit-making. Call for more public childcare.Uncertain global economic times, Trump tariffs.Port of Los Angeles imports down by one-third.US Q1 economy shrank 0.3%; recession likely.Japan, China, South Korea meeting to discuss tariff responses; hold significant US debt. Japanese warning to US re: trade negotiations.[00:59:16 - 01:07:13] What Went Wrong for the Coalition? Answer: Everything.Gas Price Fixing Policy: Cobbled together, no consultation with industry (unlike Rudd's mining tax failure), potentially unconstitutional (taxing for benefit of some states over others).Work From Home Policy Disaster:Conceived by Jane Hume and Peter Dutton, no Shadow Cabinet consultation.Initial messaging: All Commonwealth public servants, then just Canberra.Jane Hume's media run: Claimed all WFH is 20% less productive, citing a study.Implied WFH employees are "bludgers," alienating a vast number of voters (including partners of tradies).Labor capitalized on this after door-knocking feedback. Policy eventually walked back.Defence Policy: Released in the last week, vague promise to spend 3% of GDP, no specifics on acquisitions. Andrew Hastie (Shadow Defence) reportedly wants out of the portfolio.Fuel Excise Policy: Halving fuel excise for a year. Took a week for Dutton to do a photo-op at a service station. Fuel prices had already dropped.Melbourne Airport Rail Link Funding: Announced at a winery.Vehicle Emissions Policy: Clarifications issued within 48 hours.Generally a shambolic campaign, studied for years to come.[01:07:13 - 01:08:55] The Nationals & Nuclear Policy FalloutNats trying to spin a better result than Libs, but didn't win Calare (Andrew Gee back as Indy).Nuclear Policy: Coalition embarrassed to discuss it. Nats insist on keeping it.Policy originated as a way for Libs to get Nats to support Net Zero by 2050.Massive costs and timelines: Hinkley Point C (UK) example – 65 billion pounds, years of delays. US Georgia plant similar.Legislative hurdles: Repealing Howard-era ban, state-level bans (even LNP QLD Premier Chris O'Fooley against it).State-funded, "socialist" approach due to lack of private investment.[01:08:55 - 01:15:49] Coalition Campaign Failures & SpokespeopleDebate on government vs. private industry running power.Lack of effective Coalition spokespeople: Susan Ley sidelined, Jane Hume promoted. Angus Taylor perceived as lazy.Angus Taylor's past water license scandal ("Australia's Watergate," Cayman Islands structure).[01:15:49 - 01:28:03] Demographics: A Tide Against the LiberalsWomen: Voted ~58-42 for Labor (two-party preferred), worse than under Morrison. Libs failed to address issues like climate, domestic violence.Language Other Than English at Home (LOTE): 60% backed Labor (Redbridge polling, Cos Samaras). Indian and Chinese diaspora significant, impacting Deakin and Menzies (Keith Wallahan, a moderate, lost Menzies).Gen Z & Millennials (18-45): Now outnumber B
