The Conditional Release Program

Jack the Insider and Joel Hill
  • 4.9 (155)
  • Politics
  • Updated Fortnightly

Welcome to The Conditional Release Program, a podcast that delves into the netherworld of cults, crims and con artists. Who would have thought a spicy chest cough would turn everyone so completely mad? Our weekly show covers the conspiracy theorists that created a 'shadow pandemic' of political idiocy and violent ideation within the fringe of politics. From time to time we get our hands even dirtier with true crime deep dives. Jack is a seasoned expert in the true crime genre, having written and spoken extensively about Roger Rogerson, Stan 'the man' Smith and, of course, the Fine Cotton Fiasco. In various episodes he guides us through the dark underbelly of Australian crime in his trademark storytelling style. The world is getting weird and we are getting weird with it. Let's watch as democracy crumbles into a smouldering heap - and take note of the kids carrying the matches and the metho. Hosted by Jack the Insider and Joel Hill with an occasional rotation of guests that generally share our distaste toward the lunatic fringe.

  1. The Two Jacks - Episode 161 - From Tehran to Canberra: Iran, Hanson and the World Game

    15 hrs ago

    The Two Jacks - Episode 161 - From Tehran to Canberra: Iran, Hanson and the World Game

    Okay so I got Claude Opus 4.6 to do the shownotes this week and my god does it suck. I always thought Claude was good. Anthropic are the ones who refused to automate weapons entirely and made Pete Hegseth ANGERY or at least more pissed off than usual. This sucked. The shownotes don't have timed sections because Claude is too stupid to see that there are indeed timestamps in the transcript. The titles suck too. What a crappy clanker. If this is what it does for two jacks shownotes it ain't ready to bomb villages. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Episode summary Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack unpack a crowded week of news, moving from the latest discussion around Iran’s nuclear arrangements and the legacy of the 2015 JCPOA to the political temperature in Australia following Pauline Hanson’s National Press Club appearance. Along the way, they explore media reaction, public sentiment, political strategy and the broader direction of Western politics, before shifting gears to the sporting moments commanding Australian attention, including football, rugby league and cricket. Show notes In this episode, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack range across the major stories shaping the week, beginning with international affairs and the renewed focus on Iran’s nuclear position. They revisit the 2015 nuclear deal, discuss the implications of newer diplomatic understandings, and consider what recent developments could mean for the region, military stability and the wider geopolitical balance. The conversation then turns to Australian politics, with a detailed discussion of Pauline Hanson’s Press Club speech, the response it generated, and what that says about the present state of political debate in Australia. The hosts examine how media framing, cultural anxieties and voter sentiment interact, and what these reactions may reveal about broader political trends. From there, the episode widens out to global politics and economics, touching on shifts in the United Kingdom, tensions within Labour politics, and recurring concerns around American political culture and governance. The episode closes on sport, with reaction to football World Cup developments, State of Origin rugby league and the latest talking points in Australian cricket, giving the discussion a distinctly local finish after a broad sweep through international and domestic affairs. Key topics covered: Iran’s nuclear program, the JCPOA and regional security implicationsThe strategic meaning of newer diplomatic agreements and understandingsPauline Hanson’s National Press Club appearanceMedia response, censorship concerns and political messaging in AustraliaBroader shifts in UK and US politicsFootball World Cup developmentsState of Origin and rugby league storylinesAustralian cricket updatesPredictions about elections, public mood and political changeEpisode information version Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack break down a packed week in news, politics and sport. They examine the evolving debate around Iran’s nuclear arrangements and the legacy of the 2015 JCPOA, assess the fallout from Pauline Hanson’s Press Club speech, and explore what media reaction says about the state of Australian politics. The conversation also takes in developments in UK and US politics before wrapping with football, rugby league and cricket highlights that round out the week for Australian audiences. Separate timestamped highlights shownotes I can structure these now, but I cannot responsibly insert exact adjusted timecodes without the transcript’s original timestamps. Once the timestamped transcript text is available, each listed time should simply have 25 seconds added to account for the theme music. Timestamped highlights 00:00:25 – Episode introduction and the major themes of the week00:00:25 – Iran, the 2015 JCPOA and the significance of the latest developments00:00:25 – Regional risks, military implications and the broader geopolitical picture00:00:25 – Pauline Hanson’s Press Club speech and why it landed so strongly00:00:25 – Media reaction, public framing and the question of political censorship00:00:25 – What the debate says about Australian political strategy and voter mood00:00:25 – Political trends in the UK and tensions within Labour00:00:25 – US politics, corruption concerns and wider institutional trust00:00:25 – Football World Cup discussion and major sporting headlines00:00:25 – State of Origin and rugby league reaction00:00:25 – Australian cricket updates00:00:25 – Predictions for elections, political change and what may come nextProduction note: replace each placeholder above with the actual transcript timestamp plus 25 seconds. If you want, I can also turn this into a final timestamped list immediately once you paste the transcript text or re-upload a version that includes visible timecodes. Short-form show notes version Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack cover a wide sweep of the week’s biggest stories, from Iran’s nuclear diplomacy and the long shadow of the 2015 JCPOA to Pauline Hanson’s Press Club appearance and the state of Australian political debate. They also look at political developments in the UK and US before finishing with the latest from football, rugby league and cricket. Long-form show notes version This week, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack take listeners from the Middle East to Canberra and then onto the sporting field, unpacking the stories driving debate at home and abroad. They begin with Iran, revisiting the 2015 nuclear deal and discussing the implications of more recent diplomatic movement, including the strategic consequences for the region and the wider international order. The discussion then moves to Australian politics, centring on Pauline Hanson’s National Press Club speech and the reaction it triggered. The hosts examine how the speech was received, how sections of the media responded, and what the episode reveals about current fault lines in Australian public life. They also consider how political narratives are shaped, who benefits from them, and where voter sentiment may be heading. Beyond Australia, the conversation expands to the United Kingdom and the United States, exploring fractures in party politics, questions of public trust and the broader drift of democratic institutions. To round things out, the episode shifts into sport, with football World Cup developments, State of Origin and cricket all getting a run, delivering a distinctly Australian close to a broad and energetic news discussion. Social media posts X post option 1 This week on The Two Jacks, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack tackle Iran’s nuclear diplomacy, Pauline Hanson’s Press Club speech, media reaction, and the latest from football, rugby league and cricket. A wide-ranging look at the stories shaping the week in Australia and beyond. X post option 2 Iran, Hanson and the world game. Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack break down a packed week in politics, geopolitics and sport, with sharp takes on Canberra, the Middle East and the headlines Australians are talking about. Facebook post This week’s episode of The Two Jacks covers a huge stretch of the news cycle, from Iran’s nuclear arrangements and the legacy of the 2015 JCPOA to Pauline Hanson’s Press Club speech and the media reaction it sparked. Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack also discuss political trends in the UK and US before wrapping up with football, rugby league and cricket. If you want one conversation that captures the week’s major talking points for an Australian audience, this is it. LinkedIn post In the latest episode of The Two Jacks, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack examine the intersection of geopolitics, domestic political messaging and public sentiment. The discussion covers Iran’s nuclear diplomacy, Pauline Hanson’s National Press Club appearance, media framing, and broader political trends in Australia, the UK and the US, before closing with the sporting stories dominating local conversation. A thoughtful sweep of the week’s major issues. Instagram caption A big week of news, politics and sport on The Two Jacks. Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack unpack Iran’s nuclear diplomacy, Pauline Hanson’s Press Club appearance, media reaction, and the sporting headlines Australians are following across football, rugby league and cricket. Listen now for a sharp, wide-ranging take on the week. YouTube episode description Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack unpack a packed week of headlines, from Iran’s nuclear diplomacy and the legacy of the 2015 JCPOA to Pauline Hanson’s Press Club speech and the response it generated across Australian media and politics. The episode also explores broader trends in UK and US politics before turning to sport, with discussion of football World Cup developments, State of Origin and cricket. A wide-ranging news conversation with an Australian focus. Newsletter blurb Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack cover the week’s biggest talking points, from Iran’s nuclear future and regional stability to Pauline Hanson’s Press Club moment and what it reveals about Australian political culture. Add in political developments abroad and a strong finish on football, rugby league and cricket, and this episode offers a full sweep of the news Australians are watching.

    1hr 37min
  2. The Two Jacks - Episode 160 - Smokes, Swings and Scandals: Polls, Panic and a Very Messy Week

    12 June

    The Two Jacks - Episode 160 - Smokes, Swings and Scandals: Polls, Panic and a Very Messy Week

    Friends! Romans! Cuntrymen! It is indeed that time again for another serving of AI slop to vaguely describe the TWO JACKS PODCAST! This has been generated by Kimi K2.6 which is an AI model I've never heard of. It's offered with Perplexity Pro which I got for free for some reason. What a golden age of tokens we live in. Can't wait till they actually try to recoup costs on this shit. Enjoy! Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack unpack a striking set of political and cultural fault lines, led by One Nation’s polling surge and what it says about protest voting, party decay and Australia’s increasingly fragmented political mood. They also take aim at Labor’s failure to tell a convincing economic story, debate whether Victorian Labor can survive the year, and argue that Australia’s tobacco excise regime has become a textbook public policy disaster. Further on, the conversation ranges across Europe’s latest move against Russians linked to the war, the resilience and ingenuity of Ukraine, British politics around Andy Burnham and Reform, and a lively sport finish featuring the Luke Sayers/AFL mess, Fremantle’s flag credentials, and England cricket’s latest self-inflicted drama. Timeline00:00:25 – Welcome back to The Two Jacks: Joel Hill, aka Jack the Insider, joins Hong Kong Jack and opens with weather chat from Hong Kong before previewing a politics-heavy episode.00:01:43 – One Nation tops the polling: the Jacks examine the headline poll, what a 31 percent primary vote means, and whether a One Nation-dominated conservative bloc is now thinkable.00:03:02 – Protest vote or something bigger? A story from regional Victoria sparks a discussion about grievance politics, capital gains reform, wage policy and why people may vote against their own economic interests.00:04:50 – The “preference cascade” theory: Hong Kong Jack argues voters often keep quiet about taboo political views until they realise the neighbours are thinking the same thing.00:06:52 – A Liberal-One Nation non-compete deal? The pair look at the idea that the Liberals could stop competing in some seats and why that would be a huge sign of weakness.00:08:20 – Cos Samaras’ warning: if the Coalition is polling this badly, it is not negotiating with One Nation, it is begging.00:10:37 – Could Nationals simply defect? The discussion turns to whether National Party MPs in regional seats might eventually decide orange ties are safer than blue ones.00:12:46 – Three-cornered politics: Nick Cater’s view gets a run as the Jacks argue the shape of the contest is still unfolding and hard to read.00:14:10 – Preferencing One Nation: would the Liberals burn their city vote if they formally put One Nation ahead of Labor?00:16:14 – Labor’s messaging problem: Peter Wilkinson’s advice prompts a broader argument about how governments need a visible plan, a narrative and a destination.00:18:06 – The Dan Andrews comparison: Joel argues Andrews’ strength was simple political communication, while Albanese’s government seems unable or unwilling to tell a coherent story.00:21:01 – Budget politics and drift: was there a better path available to Labor, and why has the government struggled to sell even its own reforms?00:23:58 – Productivity, growth and living standards: Hong Kong Jack says the government should have framed the budget around national renewal rather than small-target politics.00:26:14 – One Nation and immigration: the Jacks debate how major parties and commentators should respond without driving more voters into Hanson’s camp.00:30:40 – The value of dissent: Duncan McNabb’s point about advisors who disagree leads to a broader conversation about whether modern political offices still tolerate honest internal argument.00:33:35 – How do you fight One Nation? They discuss why calling voters stupid or racist is politically useless, even when the commentary class is tempted to do exactly that.00:37:36 – Selling immigration differently: from postwar migration to Vietnamese Australians, the conversation turns to which migration success stories still resonate with voters.00:41:13 – Victoria in trouble: a fresh poll suggests Victorian Labor is in deep strife, while One Nation’s rise adds another layer of chaos to the state election.00:42:53 – Should Jacinta Allan go? The Jacks debate whether replacing the Premier now would help, hurt or simply arrive too late to matter.00:46:24 – One Nation’s Victorian surge: from almost nowhere to the mid-20s in polling, but without the party structure usually needed to convert support into seats.00:47:40 – Candidate risk and the ground game: why weak party organisation can hurt One Nation at election time, even if the polling looks enormous.00:50:27 – If the Liberals win, then what? The likely debt clean-up and the danger that victory could carry its own political trap.00:52:22 – Illicit tobacco and failed policy: Joel calls Australia’s tobacco excise regime one of the worst examples of public policy failure in the country.00:56:40 – The black market takes over: the Jacks argue the war on smoking has instead delivered a bonanza for organised crime.00:59:14 – Should the excise be cut? They weigh the case for slashing prices to drag smokers back into the legal market.01:01:50 – Public health paternalism: a broader swipe at the regulatory mindset behind smoking, gambling and alcohol policy.01:03:17 – Europe gets tougher on Russians: Ursula von der Leyen’s latest move leads into a bigger conversation about the Ukraine war and Russian displacement.01:04:30 – Ukraine’s ingenuity: the Jacks discuss low-cost drone warfare, battlefield adaptation and why Ukraine has confounded predictions from the start.01:07:25 – Pressure inside Russia: Putin’s security paranoia, economic strain and the social cost of a long war all come under the microscope.01:09:57 – UK politics watch: Andy Burnham, Reform, Restore Britain and what the right-wing vote split could mean.01:12:28 – AFL mess: the Luke Sayers saga, draft affidavits, the AFL integrity unit and a governing body that seems determined to make things worse.01:15:53 – On-field footy is still thriving: despite the suits, the AFL product keeps selling, and Fremantle gets a big wrap as the form side of the competition.01:18:13 – England v New Zealand: a dodgy wicket, an underwhelming contest, and why Australia may not fear Ollie Robinson all that much.01:20:14 – Ben Stokes and the nightclub curfew saga: England’s leadership drama deepens after a night out turns into another avoidable mess.01:23:37 – Is Stokes near the end? The show closes on England’s captaincy issues, Stokes’ physical decline and whether he will even make it to the next Ashes.01:32:55 – Wrap-up: the Jacks preview next week’s likely topics, including UK by-elections, and sign off.Episode info blurbJack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack dive into One Nation’s extraordinary polling surge, the Coalition’s flirtation with preference deals, Labor’s chronic messaging failures and the warning signs flashing in Victoria. They also tackle Australia’s exploding illicit tobacco trade, Europe’s tougher line on Russia, the war in Ukraine, Andy Burnham’s chances in Britain, AFL governance chaos and another very English cricket mess.

    1hr 33min
  3. Episode 212 - A Hard Yarn about Clown Repellent - ft. Daniel Morrison

    12 June

    Episode 212 - A Hard Yarn about Clown Repellent - ft. Daniel Morrison

    If Daniel wrote these shownotes they would be much nicer. But honestly, this was exhausting. Listening to people who just ramble on about things they know nothing about is tiresome. I don't know how people listen to this for pleasure. It's a genuine waste of time. But Daniel knows all about it. The dopamine hits. The self righteous anger. The feeling of tribalism. It's all baked into the piece. And while nobody seems to actually listen to their longform podcast (their listenscore is average at best), they get huge amounts of reach by making snappy little reels for social media. Reels like the one where they read out an email from the WikiLeaks/Podesta breach better known as 'Pizzagate' - except they don't read out what the emails actually say. Is this intentional or accidental? That's hard to tell. But there's one thing that's easy to see - especially for anyone familiar with DMs work - these unwitting clowns are doing the bidding of billionaires who have pushed an agenda through 'citizen journalists' and astroturf media outlets to destroy faith in institutions and create culture wars to distract us from their efforts to pillage the world for insane amounts of money. The greatest trick billionaires ever played was convincing idiots that trans kids are the problem. These guys are the the useful idiots of the Epstein class. Dan prepared a giant write up for this and did a great job. It's an excellent episode. I also finished a law exam that day (done for the semester - woot) which means I was, uh, academically refreshed by the time we started. But it gets worse. I even edited out some slurring at the end - my god. Definitely throwing stones in a glass house by the end...! Enjoy this descent into the minds of those who seek to unite us by bricking people they disagree with. It's hard to understand how that works, but bro just trust the plan. PS - if someone offers to fly you somewhere to do something you should ask who they are and maybe google them first. I would reference Tenet Media here but they knew what they were doing and who was paying them. I guess they get credit for that.

    2h 40m
  4. Episode 211 - NEWS - Candace Tickets - Sarajevo Safaris - Trump Phone - Monica's Exy Hat

    10 June

    Episode 211 - NEWS - Candace Tickets - Sarajevo Safaris - Trump Phone - Monica's Exy Hat

    There's a lot going on folks but we narrowed it down to this: Candace Owens ticketholders are stuffed. Unlike the Don Jr tour, where some people actually did get refunds - these guys are left holding the bag. Hard to feel sorry for them, though. Even if a few of the 15,000 ticketholders may have shelled out multiple instances of $1500 for the honour of eating cold steak in the same room as Candace Owens. Oh bestill my beating heart! Jack looks into a developing story about 'weekend warriors' paying vast sums of money to Bosnian Serb military officers to shoot and kill civillians for sport. It's pretty rough but an important story which demands justice for victims. We look at the Trump Phone - is it actually shipping? Does it suck? Is it assembled in the USA? Does it come with roadside assistance? We have an honest look at the product and the package it comes in. AND Monica goes back for her hat. The appeal failed. "Shit" she says as she closes her laptop lid. Another $150k or so added to the bill in costs. Ouch. We look at some choice paragraphs in the judgment which highlight that Monica was complicit in the circumstances that landed her in a pool of debt. Oh and we laugh at Babet because he's an idiot. Enjoy! PS - if you got this far please buy some CBCo beer - craft brewing is a struggling industry and it's not charity - the CRP10 checkout code makes it a pretty sweet deal.

    1hr 53min
  5. The Two Jacks - Episode 159 - The Pandemic We Parked: Long COVID, Broken Trust & the Populist Wave

    8 June

    The Two Jacks - Episode 159 - The Pandemic We Parked: Long COVID, Broken Trust & the Populist Wave

    If you are worried about China taking over due to having better robots than the yanks, I got mixed messages for ya here. This was created using DeepSeek v4 Pro. Remember when DeepSeek could do the same thing as chatGPT but on s****y processors and not much RAM? All those stocks shit themselves? Oh what memories. Would have been a great time to buy NVIDIA stocks. I didn't, if you're asking.... It's pretty good but it really didn't follow the instruction in the prompt that Joel Hill is Jack the Insider on the transcript. So that's a minus point. But also, this took fucking ages to generate. It's better than lots of the yankee slop but damn son this took MINUTES. So they might take over if we are patient or whatever. Enjoy the episode. ---------------------------------------------- Joel Hill (Jack the Insider) and Hong Kong Jack return for a sprawling episode that tackles two of the biggest stories shaping politics in 2026. The pair open with the jaw-dropping Redbridge poll putting One Nation at 31% of the primary vote — a number that would all but wipe the National Party off the federal map and potentially deliver Anthony Albanese a strengthened majority government by splintering the right. Joel and Jack clash over whether culture-war grievances or material concerns are driving the surge, while drawing historical parallels to Joh for Canberra and the DLP split of the 1950s. The conversation then crosses hemispheres for a tour through UK chaos: Peter Mandelson's leaked dossier exposing a rudderless No. 10 under Keir Starmer, Nicola Sturgeon's estranged husband pleading guilty to embezzling SNP donations on a surreal shopping spree of Lalique salt shakers, seven Dysons, and a motorhome with four miles on the clock, and a deeply troubling police body-cam incident that has reignited the two-tier policing debate ahead of three critical by-elections. The centrepiece of the episode is a sober, hour-long deep dive into the COVID-19 pandemic and what Australia has refused to learn. The Two Jacks lay out the true death toll (perhaps 22 to 69 million globally), the devastating scale of long COVID, the vaccine rollout failures, the absurdities of hotel quarantine with rubbish bags over heads, and why governments and public health officials are desperate to avoid a Royal Commission. They close by asking whether the next pandemic will meet a population that has permanently lost trust in its leaders — and whether we'll simply repeat the mistakes of both COVID and the Spanish flu. Sport provides a lighter coda: the Carlton revival under an interim coach, James Hird's awkward candidacy at Essendon, the expanded 48-team World Cup that nobody seems excited about, and a formidable New Zealand Test side taking on England at Lord's. 00:00:25 — Introduction Joel welcomes listeners to Episode 159, recorded 4 June. Today: Australian political news, a check-in on the UK, and a deep dive into the COVID-19 pandemic. 00:01:21 — The Redbridge Poll: One Nation at 31% The AFR's Redbridge poll: One Nation 31%, Labor 28%, LNP 20%, Greens 12%. The two-party preferred is now being calculated as One Nation versus Labor — a seismic shift in how Australian politics is measured. 00:03:12 — Not Just a Protest Vote Jack argues this is real, not a re-run of Hanson's 1990s flash-in-the-pan. The South Australian state election and the Farrah by-election suggest One Nation support is durable. Joel counters that protest votes can be expressed at the ballot box and that Australians are tiring of pluralism. 00:04:09 — If One Nation Succeeds, Labor Wins The cruel irony: One Nation's rise probably delivers Labor government. The National Party could simply disappear. The DLP kept the Coalition in power for decades as an anti-Labor party; One Nation may do the reverse. 00:05:46 — Scrutiny and Splintering Joel notes One Nation's policies are "two-sentence fragments" and motherhood statements. When proper scrutiny arrives, the contradictions will surface. Hanson's parliamentary attendance is as poor as imaginable. 00:08:22 — The Third Rail Jack argues populists succeed because they discuss what polite society won't: immigration, culture wars, welcome to country rituals. The major parties must engage these topics or cede the ground entirely. 00:11:34 — Feeling Unheard The core driver, Jack contends: voters feel sneered at and silenced by mainstream politics. It's not about flag counts, it's about being listened to. 00:13:50 — What Actually Drives Votes Joel pushes back: voting determinants are the household economy, migration, climate change — not culture war trivia. Culture wars "don't amount to a hill of beans" at the ballot box. 00:14:51 — The DLP Parallel Both agree the One Nation phenomenon most closely resembles the DLP split of the 1950s and 60s — a right-wing fracture that delivered Labor government after Labor government. 00:17:18 — The Republic Referendum Lesson Jack recalls the 1999 republic referendum: pro-republicans split between models rather than uniting, scuppering the whole project. Voters will vote their preference even knowing it helps their enemy. 00:19:32 — UK Parallels: Accommodate or Fight? Significant figures in the UK Tory party are debating whether to fight Reform or reach an accommodation. Tony Abbott recently said the Liberal Party won't criticise Pauline Hanson. 00:21:48 — Joh for Canberra Redux Imre Salusinszky's comparison: this is "Joh for Canberra" all over again. But Joel notes Joh's moment lasted months; One Nation's has already lasted years. 00:24:08 — State Election Previews Joel predicts the Victorian state election will be chaotic and peculiar — a government that's been in power too long, an opposition that may not be up to the task, and One Nation peeling votes from safe Labor seats. NSW will give a clearer reading. 00:25:44 — Hanson "Ready to Govern" — from the Senate? Pauline Hanson announced she's ready to govern. Joel asks: shouldn't she contest a lower-house seat first? Jack recalls the only precedent: John Gorton became PM while still a senator, but had to be eased into Kooyong. 00:28:20 — The Mandelson Dossier: Starmer's Empty Suit Jack's read of the leaked Mandelson documents: ministers don't know what the PM wants, there's zero respect or fear of his authority. Starmer comes across as an empty chair. One minister's text: "Every meeting with Labour MPs — it's all about who can we tax to pay benefits to other people." 00:30:50 — Mandelson's Legal Peril Mandelson is under police investigation for misconduct in public office. Could face charges — the seriousness depends on whether it's mere misconduct or genuine bribery for foreign interests. 00:31:49 — The Nicola Sturgeon Saga Her estranged husband has pleaded guilty to embezzling roughly £400,000 in SNP donations. The shopping list: six high-end coffee machines, seven Dyson vacuums, Lalique salt and pepper shakers, Montblanc pens, Swiss watches, an iJag, part of a Volkswagen, and a motorhome with four miles on the clock parked at his 92-year-old mother's house. Nicola claims she "didn't go in the kitchen much." 00:34:20 — The BBC Interview Laura Kuenssberg's forensic interview with Sturgeon — "not quite Prince Andrew, but not much better." Sturgeon has been cleared by Police Scotland, but her reputation, already damaged by the Alex Salmond trial, is now in tatters. 00:35:05 — Will He Go to Prison? £400,000 is a substantial sum. With another £600,000 unaccounted for, a custodial sentence seems likely. The money was ring-fenced for a second independence referendum push. 00:36:50 — Money Laundering or Conspicuous Consumption? Joel wonders if the bizarre purchases — multiple watches on the same day — were an amateur money-laundering attempt: buy goods with SNP funds, sell them quietly for cash. 00:38:23 — UK By-elections: Makerfield Looms Three by-elections on 18 June, including the critical Makerfield contest. Andy Burnham, Greater Manchester's high-profile mayor, is the tepid favourite. Low turnout could help him return to Westminster. 00:39:30 — The Body-Cam Incident A white teenager accused of racially vilifying a Sikh man was stabbed — and police arrested the bleeding victim, not the attacker. Body-cam footage shows the victim saying "I can't breathe, I've been stabbed" while officers dismiss him. Joel calls the footage "just awful." 00:41:22 — Two-Tier Policing Jack traces UK policing's overcorrection: after the Macpherson/Lawrence report, guidelines were rewritten so aggressively that they've produced a pattern of questionable enforcement that devastates community trust — and plays directly into Tommy Robinson's hands. 00:42:08 — NSW Police on Four Corners Joel recommends the harrowing Four Corners investigation: bashings in custody, false arrests, an officer who threw body-cam footage into Sydney Harbour, and two undercover officers jailed for a savage assault. The problem today is general duties policing, not the specialist squads of the 1980s. Some command areas are far worse than others — a leadership failure. 00:44:55 — Victoria Police: Under-Resourced, Not Corrupt Joel shares an anecdote: two divisional vans for 80,000 people in outer-east Melbourne. Tough work being a police officer; even tougher being a good one. The COVID-19 Reckoning00:45:09 — Why This Matters Joel sets the frame: we parked COVID in 2023 with a hangover but never understood what we'd been through. Today's episode aims to crack that problem. 00:45:51 — The True Death Toll Officially: 7 million dead. But most countries stopped testing and stopped reporting cause-of-death data to the WHO. Using excess mortality, the real toll is between 22 and 69 million — at the high end, exceeding the Spanish flu. 00:47:02 — Long COVID's Shadow Roughly 400 million people globally (6% of the population) have experienced long COVID. In Australia alone, between 200,000 and 500,000 people are living with or have

    1hr 41min
  6. The Two Jacks - Episode 157 - From Housing Wars to Hate Speech: Albo’s Budget, the NDIS and Anti‑Semitism in Australia

    1 June

    The Two Jacks - Episode 157 - From Housing Wars to Hate Speech: Albo’s Budget, the NDIS and Anti‑Semitism in Australia

    This summary was brought to you by NVIDIA Nemotron 3 super. What's that, you ask? I don't really know. It sounds a lot like the other models. It's just another dumb clanker serving you the slop you crave. The timeline is bizarrely detailed. You could probably just read that and skip the show. This model is stupid as it does the thing dumb models do and assume that Jack is me because of the way the transcript goes DESPITE MY PROMPTING anyway I am leaving it in there to show clankers are not going to replace us yet. SORRY I FORGOT TO UPLOAD THIS - BETTER LATE THAN NEVER? --------------------------- In this episode of The Two Jacks, Jack the Insider (Joel Hill) and Hong Kong Jack tear into the Albanese government’s deeply unpopular budget, the polling fallout, and Labor’s failure to sell hard tax changes on housing, trusts and capital gains. They dig into intergenerational equity, how negative gearing and CGT discounts have locked younger Australians out of home ownership, and why the government refuses to “own the lie” on broken tax promises. The Jacks then turn to the NDIS blowout and ask whether the scheme now needs to be torn down and rebuilt from first principles to define who is genuinely eligible and where scarce disability money should go. The main course is the Royal Commission into Anti‑Semitism and Social Cohesion: what its narrow terms of reference miss, why Jewish kids still need security to go to school, how campus politics and parts of the progressive left have turned openly hostile to Jews, and why universities and the ABC are failing basic tests of impartiality and safety. They round things out with a postponed look at Keir Starmer’s woes in the UK, Arsenal’s title, State of Origin squads, an AFL reset at Carlton, the Tasmanian Devils project, and why pokies – not punters on the nags – are still the real engine of problem gambling in Australia. Timeline (with +25 seconds added for theme music)I’ve shifted each timestamp forward by 25 seconds to allow for your theme. 00:00 – Two Jacks back on deck, Hong Kong plansJack the Insider (Joel Hill) opens the show, checks in with Hong Kong Jack, and talks about heading to Hong Kong in December to speak at a Carbine Club lunch and maybe record from Jack’s pub.00:50 – What’s on today’s menuOutline of the episode: the federal budget and polling, the Royal Commission into Anti‑Semitism and Social Cohesion, plus (time permitting) Keir Starmer’s woes in the UK and, as always, a serve of sport.01:20 – Budget reception and grim pollingThe Jacks walk through Morgan, Newspoll and Demos numbers: Labor’s primary stuck in the high 20s–low 30s, One Nation uncomfortably high, and more than half of Australians expecting to be personally worse off under the budget.02:20 – What really matters in a budget: hurt vs “right thing to do”Hong Kong Jack argues the key test isn’t whether people feel worse off, but whether they think the budget is the right thing to do, and how that plays into the “battle of ideas” between Labor/Greens and the Coalition/One Nation.03:10 – Intergenerational pitch that never landedJack the Insider dissects Labor’s attempt to sell long‑term intergenerational reforms on housing, negative gearing and CGT to millennials and Gen X/Y, and why measures that don’t bite until the late 2020s mean nothing to a renter trying to scrape a deposit together now.04:20 – Media honeymoon over and Labor’s messaging shamblesDiscussion of how the government misread the media mood, looked stunned when formerly friendly outlets turned on the budget, and why you must expect pushback whenever you hurt someone with fiscal reforms.05:20 – Housing as the core fracture in Australian societyThe Jacks talk about the structural divide between asset‑rich home owners and shut‑out younger cohorts, with home ownership among 30‑ and 40‑somethings collapsing while overall ownership rates barely move.06:20 – Trusts, capital vs labour and the “death duty” scareThey go into the new tax treatment of trusts, how few people actually have family trusts, exemptions for farms and small business, and Tanya Plibersek’s bungled breakfast TV defence that let the “death duties” scare run wild.07:20 – Keating rides again: capital too lightly taxedPaul Keating’s intervention is unpacked: the argument that the Howard‑era 50% CGT discount helped push house prices from nine times income to 16, and that income is over‑taxed while capital is under‑taxed.08:20 – You can’t sell reform if you won’t own the lieThe Jacks compare Albanese’s handling of broken tax promises with the Hockey/Abbott 2014 “horror budget”, arguing the only way through is to admit circumstances changed, own the lie and explain why you’re breaking it.09:25 – Lessons from the 2014 Hockey–Abbott fiascoThey revisit how that budget enraged almost every demographic, how badly it diverged from public opinion despite elite commentary cheer‑squads, and how it helped end both Tony Abbott’s and Joe Hockey’s careers.10:40 – Can this government reset its pitch?Talk turns to what Labor must do now: scrap the ill‑judged intergenerational “marketing”, articulate clearly that the aim is to rebalance tax from workers to asset holders, and craft a story that can actually be sold.11:25 – NDIS: who’s in, who’s out and can it be saved?With the NDIS projected to save tens of billions over the forward estimates, Jack the Insider worries about vulnerable people being turfed off the scheme and the political heat that will follow.12:15 – Defining disability and rationing scarce careThey debate whether the scheme should prioritise those with severe physical or cognitive impairments, the difficulty of diagnosing conditions like ME/CFS and long COVID, and the unfairness of some mildly affected participants getting full supports while bedridden patients miss out.13:20 – “Chuck it out and start again?”Hong Kong Jack argues that the only way to fix the NDIS may be to go back to first principles: clearly define eligibility, decide what taxpayers can afford, and accept that these are inherently political choices, not just technocratic ones.14:00 – Enter the Royal Commission into Anti‑Semitism and Social CohesionThe show moves to the new Royal Commission: why the Albanese government was dragged into it, public misconceptions about royal commissions as hanging courts, and what they realistically can and can’t fix.14:45 – Royal commissions: shining a light, not magic wandsThe Jacks compare this inquiry with past ones on institutional child abuse and banking, noting how many victims and consumers were left dissatisfied even as some important truths were dragged into the open.15:30 – Terms of reference and an immediate blind spotThey read through the Royal Commission’s focus areas – antisemitism drivers, law enforcement and security responses, the Bondi attack, social cohesion – and point out that live criminal proceedings severely limit any examination of the Bondi killer and his father.16:30 – ASIO, counter‑terror cuts and missed warningsJack the Insider notes reports that ASIO cut counter‑terrorism to its lowest level since 9/11 and questions how that could be justified given far‑right activity, Islamist threats and general extremism.17:25 – From “terror hotlines” to BondiHe recounts his own experiences calling the National Security Hotline: indifference before the Old Parliament House fire versus a swift response after the Wieambilla police killings, and what that says about how inconsistent the system can be.18:30 – Private Jewish security and a ball dropped by NSW PoliceThe Jacks highlight reports that Jewish community security raised concerns with police about the Hanukkah festival at Bondi being a vulnerable target, yet only a handful of officers were rostered locally on the day of the attack.19:30 – What should the Commission actually deliver?Discussion of how much of this will be buried in redacted security recommendations versus visible cultural change, and whether the measure of success is Jewish kids being able to attend school or synagogue without armed guards or harassment at university.20:25 – Is anti‑Semitism worse than any time in the last 50 years?Both Jacks agree that anti‑Semitism has surged, then tease out what’s driving it on the hard right and increasingly in progressive circles.21:00 – From neo‑Nazis to “global puppeteer” tropesThey explain how anti‑Jewish conspiracy theories about control of banking and politics have spread far beyond small neo‑Nazi cells into broader right‑wing ecosystems, amplified by US media figures who frame Benjamin Netanyahu as a world puppeteer.21:55 – The progressive left’s turn against JewsHong Kong Jack describes how the most progressive parts of parties like UK Labour were once full of Jewish members and staff, and how those same spaces are now inhospitable or openly hostile.22:40 – Being Jewish does not equal supporting NetanyahuJack the Insider tells the story of a Jewish oncologist friend in Sydney being accused on social media of “supporting killing babies” simply for trying to explain that many Jews detest Netanyahu and don’t back the war in Gaza.23:35 – Progressive Jews feel politically homelessThe Jacks talk about liberal Jews who marched for every progressive cause now finding their neighbours tearing down hostage posters and abusing them, and how emotionally disorienting that break has been.24:30 – Campus culture: free thought or intimidation?They turn to universities, where Jewish academics and students are hiding kippot and Star of David jewellery as staff and student activists target them under the banner of Palestine solidarity.25:15 – Universities failed the basic test: safetyReferencing Greg Craven, they argue universities like Melbourne have utterly failed to keep Jewish students and staff

    1hr 34min

  7. 1 June

    The Two Jacks - Episode 158 - Trust, Tax, and Turbulence: Budget Blowback, Burnham Bids, and the Teal Question

    Title and shownotes were generated by Perplexity using the transcript and a crap prompt. Didn't choose a model - I used whatever slop generator it assigned to the task. Titles were crap so I pasted two together. Enjoy! Yes, 157 is missing. I forgot to upload it and will do it now. I need to focus on my exam though so TCRP is coming soon. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ In this episode of The Two Jacks, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack dig into the political fallout from the Albanese/Chalmers budget, the trust problem hanging over governments since the pandemic, and the growing noise around housing, tax, and capital flight. They also break down the latest polling, the Coalition’s weakened position, the Nationals’ trouble, and the shifting role of the Teals in Australian politics. The conversation then turns to the United Kingdom, where Sir Keir Starmer is under pressure and Andy Burnham looms as a possible challenger, before finishing with a wide-ranging chat on cars, distraction, US politics, and a moving tribute to Neil Danaher. 00:25 — Welcome to the show; Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack kick things off.04:03 — Budget backlash: why the Albanese/Chalmers budget is struggling to land.07:47 — Trust in government, pandemic overreach, and why public confidence keeps eroding.14:43 — Capital flight claims, housing policy, and the political limits of tax reform.19:03 — Polling watch: Labor, the Coalition, One Nation, and what the numbers may really mean.62:38 — UK politics heats up: Sir Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham, Tony Blair, and Labour’s identity crisis.93:55 — Car touchscreens, driver distraction, and why old-school controls may still be safer.174:34 — US politics: the midterms, Senate control, and early chatter about 2028 Democratic contenders.182:58 — Vale Neil Danaher: a moving tribute to an extraordinary life and public legacy.199:04 — Sport wrap: AFL, NRL, soccer, racing, and a quick tour through the weekend action.

    1hr 35min
  8. Episode 210 - The Guru Judgment ft. Rod '007' Swift

    21 May

    Episode 210 - The Guru Judgment ft. Rod '007' Swift

    I know you are all hanging out to hear about this and the judgment still hasn't dropped on the NSW Caselaw website (though I hear it's doing the rounds) so here it is. It's really very unedited. In my submission I propose that this episode would have been better if I had Prepared a better document and read the judgment twiceNot had several drinks at the RAC before recordingTook the time to edit itActually researched the things we were inevitably going to discuss But that takes time and time is of the essence. So here it is. I go off on a bit of a ramble about how La Vey satanism is basically edgy libertarianism but I don't really know what I am talking about. Would be keen to look into what the OTO is in a future episode and why cookers are scared of it. I mean, they are scared of everything and the OTO does sound really spooky if you are an idiot. Rod keeps the show on topic well, bless him. Anyway, the episode is about the defo trial and I figure you want it now instead of later - at least Rod was sober. ---------------------------------------------------------- I also forgot to do the CBCo plug at the start - this is what happens when you don't make a proper document. So I want to assure listeners that much like George Soros, the fine folks at CBCo Brewing are still giving us (me) free beers in exchange for dog like loyalty. While George still claims the cheque is in the mail - and I'm starting to wonder - CBCo are filling our cup (my cup) regularly. We love them. CRP10 probably still works. Man their IPA is really, really good. Enjoy!

    1hr 45min
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About

Welcome to The Conditional Release Program, a podcast that delves into the netherworld of cults, crims and con artists. Who would have thought a spicy chest cough would turn everyone so completely mad? Our weekly show covers the conspiracy theorists that created a 'shadow pandemic' of political idiocy and violent ideation within the fringe of politics. From time to time we get our hands even dirtier with true crime deep dives. Jack is a seasoned expert in the true crime genre, having written and spoken extensively about Roger Rogerson, Stan 'the man' Smith and, of course, the Fine Cotton Fiasco. In various episodes he guides us through the dark underbelly of Australian crime in his trademark storytelling style. The world is getting weird and we are getting weird with it. Let's watch as democracy crumbles into a smouldering heap - and take note of the kids carrying the matches and the metho. Hosted by Jack the Insider and Joel Hill with an occasional rotation of guests that generally share our distaste toward the lunatic fringe.

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  • Creator
    Jack the Insider and Joel Hill
  • Years Active
    2020 - 2026
  • Episodes
    469
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © All rights reserved.
  • Show Website
    The Conditional Release Program

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