Why property investors shouldn't trust the last 5 years of price data | Stuart Wemyss

If you've been watching property prices over the past few years, you've probably noticed some strange trends – massive price rises, unpredictable shifts between cities and regions, and what feels like an endless debate about affordability.

But what if I told you that the last five years of price data might be leading investors astray?

Today, I'm joined by Stuart Wemyss, financial strategist and founder of ProSolution Private Clients, who has written a confronting article explaining why the last five years of data are the least reliable in decades.

Together, we'll unpack what's distorted the numbers – from COVID lockdowns and construction cost blowouts to volatile borrowing power and migration swings – and how smart investors can cut through the noise to focus on long-term fundamentals.

Our conversation highlights the significance of local knowledge in making informed investment decisions and the need for a strategic approach to property investment, rather than relying solely on short-term data.

Takeaways

· The property market is influenced by various factors, including lending volumes.

· Rising construction costs have a significant impact on property values.

· Borrowing capacity has fluctuated due to regulatory changes and interest rates.

· Migration trends can create pressure on rental markets and property prices.

· Data analysis in property investment requires both science and art.

· Local knowledge is crucial for making informed investment decisions.

· Investors should focus on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term data.

· Understanding the reasons behind market movements is essential for smart investing.

· Population growth alone does not guarantee property price increases.

Chapters

01:32 – Why the Last 5 Years of Property Data Can Mislead Investors

04:45 – How Surging Construction Costs Distorted Market Values

09:34 – Borrowing Capacity Shocks and Their Impact on Growth

17:07 – Migration Waves, Rentals and Why Sydney & Melbourne Lagged

23:55 – Work-From-Home, Regions and the Return to Big City Demand

27:26 – Cheap Money, Lending Volumes and Why Long-Term Data Matters

Links and Resources:

Michael Yardney – Subscribe to my Property Update newsletter here

Stuart Wemyss – Prosolution Private Clients

Read Stuart's article here: https://prosolution.com.au/why-property-investors-shouldnt-trust-the-last-5-years-of-price-data/

Stuart's Book – Rules of the Lending Game & Investopoly

Get a bundle of eBooks and Reports at: www.PodcastBonus.com.au

Also, please subscribe to my other podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future. Or click here: https://demographicsdecoded.com.au/