Doom Debates!

Liron Shapira

It's time to talk about the end of the world. With your host, Liron Shapira. lironshapira.substack.com

  1. PRIJE 1 D

    Ben Goertzel Wants to Build AGI Even FASTER — AI Doom Debate

    Dr. Ben Goertzel is a pioneering AI researcher, entrepreneur, and author who has helped organize AGI as a research field since the 2000s through books, workshops, and conferences. We talk about the early days of AGI research with Yudkowsky, get Ben’s timeline to the singularity, and I try to understand what makes him so optimistic that superintelligence will be beneficial for humanity. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:59 — Introducing Dr. Ben Goertzel 00:04:11 — How Did Ben Get Interested in AGI? 00:08:26 — Early AGI Enthusiast Community: Extropians & SL4 00:15:15 — Is There Headroom Above Human Intelligence? 00:19:53 — Can Superintelligent AI Kill Everyone? 00:28:25 — Ben’s AGI Timeline: 2029 00:36:00 — What Modern AI Is Missing 00:42:01 — AGI to Superintelligence — FOOM in a Matter of Months 00:46:34 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™ 00:53:37 — Ben’s Case for AI Acceleration 01:03:50 — The Orthogonality Thesis Is “Dishonest” 01:13:43 — Liron: Moore’s Law for Goal Achievement 01:23:50 — Ben: Alignment Is Just Good Parenting 01:27:36 — Alignment in Practice: OmegaCLAW 01:35:47 — Creating Stable Goals Under Self-Modification 01:45:22 — SingularityNET, OpenBGI, and the ASI Alliance 01:57:31 — The $ASI Token Economy 02:01:15 — Closing Links Ben Goertzel on X — https://x.com/bengoertzel SingularityNET — https://singularitynet.io/ OpenBGI — https://openbgi.com/ Hyperon AGI Framework — https://hyperon.dev/ OmegaCLAW on GitHub — https://github.com/asi-alliance/OmegaClaw-Core ASI Alliance — https://superintelligence.io/ The Consciousness Explosion (book) — https://theconsciousnessexplosion.ai/ “The Singularity Institute’s Scary Idea (and Why I Don’t Buy It)” (2010) — http://multiverseaccordingtoben.blogspot.com/2010/10/singularity-institutes-scary-idea-and.html Ken Stanley Debate — https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/debate-with-a-former-openai-research Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    2 h 3 min

  2. PRIJE 5 D

    NEWS: Trump & Xi Want AI Guardrails, ChatGPT vs Claude, and Liron Caught Rationalizing!? DD Live (5/15)

    We recap the Dr. Mike Israetel debate and dig into the nuances of rationality vs. rationalization. Then onto the week's biggest news: Anthropic dethroning OpenAI, Trump and Xi Jinping exploring AI guardrails, and Liron's own company AI going rogue. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:03:09 — Dr. Mike Israetel Round 2 Recap 00:14:34 — A Viewer Accuses Liron of Rationalizing 00:34:20 — Is Sam Altman Any Worse than a Typical Tech CEO? 00:45:15 — What Would Lower P(Doom) Below 10%? 00:53:25 — Can We Disconnect an ASI from the Internet? 01:05:00 — Should Doomers Boycott AI? 01:16:27 — Liron Reacts to ThePrimeagen Reacting to the Yud Debate 01:26:13 — Ben Goertzel Episode Preview 01:38:10 — Scrolling Twitter: MIRI, Ryan Greenblatt 01:47:32 — Liron’s AI Goes Rogue at Work 01:49:15 — “Positive Alignment” Paper Gets Destroyed 01:58:30 — Anthropic Dethrones OpenAI 02:12:06 — Trump & Xi Talk AI Guardrails Links Zvi Mowshowitz AI roundup blog — https://thezvi.wordpress.com/ “The Bottom Line” by Eliezer Yudkowsky (LessWrong) — https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/34XxbRFe54FycoCDw/the-bottom-line Rationality: From AI to Zombies by Eliezer Yudkowsky — https://intelligence.org/rationality-ai-zombies/ Less Online 2026 conference (June 5–7) — https://less.online/ Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    2 h 16 min

  3. PRIJE 6 D

    Who Was Liron Shapira BEFORE Doom Debates? — Interview on Theo Jaffee's Podcast from December 2023

    In December 2023, I joined the Theo Jaffee Podcast to talk about a wide range of topics including non-AI x-risks, where I disagree with Eliezer Yudkwowsky, cryptocurrency and if P(Doom) is rigorous. This episode was recorded 6 months before I'd started Doom Debates. Let's look back with the power of hindsight and see if my answers still hold up. Links #10: Liron Shapira — AI doom, FOOM, rationalism, and crypto (YouTube) — https://youtu.be/YfEcAtHExFM Watch Theo Jafee now on MTS — https://www.mts.now/ MTS Live — https://x.com/MTSlive Timestamps 00:00:00 — Theo's Introduction 00:01:03 — Is Liron Worried About Non-AI Existential Risks 00:03:36 — Suffering Risks 00:05:22 — Is P(Doom) rigorous? 00:09:42 — Is Eliezer Overestimating P(Doom)? 00:12:18 — Where Does Liron Disagree with Eliezer? 00:15:43 — What Would Change Liron's Mind 00:17:14 — Elon Musk's AI Timelines 00:18:34 — Is xAI Making Things Worse? 00:20:24 — The Case for an AI Manhattan Project 00:22:32 — Are Superforecasters Wrong About AI Risk? 00:26:02 — The Race Against Time for Alignment 00:28:01 — Headroom Above Human Intelligence 00:33:31 — Vitalik's d/acc Framework 00:35:23 — Edging Toward Superintelligence 00:38:21 — From Chatbot to World-Ender 00:41:55 — GPT Paradigm vs. AlphaZero 00:43:18 — Critiquing AI Optimism 00:48:29 — Deceptive Alignment and Gradient Descent 00:53:31 — Does Nice Training Data Make Nice AI? 00:57:57 — How Do You Live with 50% P(Doom)? 01:00:08 — Why Have Kids If the World Might End?01:02:16 — Israel vs Hamas 01:06:15 — How LessWrong Changed Liron's Lif e01:08:42 — Rationalism and Effective Altruism 01:14:49 — Why Blockchain Has No Use Case Beyond Cryptocurrency 01:22:13 — Charlie Munger and Richard Feynman 01:24:38 — Closing Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    1 h 25 min

  4. 12. SVI

    Dr. Mike Israetel Returns to Debate: Will AI Kill Everyone, Or Make Everything Awesome?

    Dr. Mike Israetel is back in the arena to FIGHT ME (verbally) about the likelihood of AI killing everyone vs. the likelihood of AI making the universe totally awesome! Back by popular demand after last year’s widely-viewed debate, the renowned exercise scientist, fitness entrepreneur, and low-P(Doom) AI futurist reveals where he gets off the Doom Train™, why he thinks AI is conscious, and how he pictures the coming AI utopia. Links Watch Dr. Mike’s AI/futurism YouTube channel —https://www.youtube.com/@mikeisraetelmakingprogress Dr. Mike on X — https://x.com/misraetel Make sure to watch Round 1 of our debate from last year — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaDWSPMdM4o Liron referenced a recent episode, “Steven Byrnes Returns — 90% P(Doom) on the Trajectory to ASI” — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOb9K1KIAyk Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:48 — Returning Champion Dr. Mike Israetel! 00:02:13 — What's Been Your Biggest AI Productivity Gain? 00:03:46 — Can AI Be a Personal Trainer? Dr. Mike Judges Liron's Technique 00:09:41 — Get Good at Taking Advice From AI 00:14:23 — Dr. Mike Israetel, What's Your Latest P(Doom)?™ 00:20:12 — Liron's Mainline Scenario: Loss of Control 00:21:39 — Mike's Problems With a Paperclip Maximizer Scenario 00:26:00 — What Will the Goals of a Superintelligence Be? 00:28:49 — AI Labs Have Bit Off More Than They Can Chew 00:31:09 — Current AIs Are Moral 00:34:40 — AIs With a Ruthless Game-Playing Flavor 00:38:48 — Introducing the Doom Train 00:45:07 — "Can It" vs. "Will It" — Two-Part Argument on AI X-Risk 00:49:40 — Mike's Tweet on Superintelligence by 2027 01:01:34 — AI as a Goal Engine 01:20:51 — Offense vs. Defense in the Coming Cyber War 01:39:14 — Is Morality Just Game Theory? The "Different Flavor" of Future AI 01:46:16 — Ricardo's Law: Does AI Have Reason to Keep Us Around? 01:52:14 — Why Mike Gets Off the Doom Train 01:54:58 — Is AI Conscious? 02:01:39 — Mike's Vision for the Coming AI Utopia 02:06:52 — Wrap-Up Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    2 h 9 min

  5. 9. SVI

    Eliezer Yudkowsky Post-Debate Reaction, Elon's New Frenemy & Liron's Bet on Spencer Pratt!? - Doom Debates Live (5/8/26)

    Liron and Producer Ori explore the community's feedback to Eliezer Yudkowsky's $10,000 debate against an anonymous AI director. Plus, we unpack Eliezer's new post on the "irretrievability" of ASI development, Anthropic feasting on xAI's compute, and Liron's 4x Kalshi bet on... Spencer Pratt. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Welcome 00:02:30 — The $10,000 Debate Post-Mortem 00:06:01 — Paul Tudor Jones: “Zero Risk Management on AI” 00:09:49 — Liron’s Jerry Springer Moment 00:14:19 — Why Yud Wore Steampunk 00:20:19 — YouTube Reacts: “Five Minutes In, Already Unhinged” 00:27:19 — 47F’s Anti-Disparagement Legal Theory 00:32:18 — Yud Wants Round 2 00:35:37 — Lumpin Space, Ben Goertzel & Early AI Safety Memories 00:47:06 — Eliezer’s “Irretrievability” Post 00:56:35 — The Maginot Line and Murphy’s Curse 01:08:13 — Blockchain vs AI: Earth’s Compute Swing 01:15:15 — Anthropic Eats Elon’s Compute 01:25:29 — Is Elon Tweeting as His Own Mom? 01:30:03 — Waymo Dodges a Fallen Scooter Rider 01:33:00 — Why Liron Bet on Spencer Pratt 01:37:13 — Live Twitter Scroll! 01:38:11 — Mira Murati: “Directionally Very Bad” 01:50:07 — AI Copies Itself Across Servers 01:56:44 — Steven Byrnes: LLMs Aren’t the Final Paradigm 02:07:55 — Wrap-Up Links LessOnline 2026 (June 5-7, Berkeley, CA) — https://less.online/ Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Irretrievability; or, Murphy’s Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI” (LessWrong, May 4, 2026) —https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fbrz9xhKpEeTKw5zL/irretrievability-or-murphy-s-curse-of-oneshotness-upon-asi Anthropic, SpaceX announce Colossus 1 compute deal (CNBC) — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/anthropic-spacex-data-center-capacity.html SpaceXAI announcement: Compute partnership with Anthropic — https://x.ai/news/anthropic-compute-partnership Kalshi: Spencer Pratt LA Mayor market — https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmayorla/la/kxmayorla-26 Morris worm — Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morris_worm Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    2 h 11 min

  6. 7. SVI

    Debate with @lumpenspace (AI Accelerationist) — Is it GOOD for AI to replace us?

    Claude, also known as @lumpenspace on X, is a prominent AI accelerationist. He gives humanity a 30% chance of being superseded by superintelligence, and he’s fine with it! We unpack his lattice of beliefs, and pinpoint the cruxes of our disagreement on the orthogonality thesis and the capabilities of superintelligence. Lumpenspace’s appearance comes after a Molotov cocktail was thrown at Sam Altman’s house, an act that he and I completely condemn. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:57 — Introducing Lumpenspace 00:03:46 — Is Lumpenspace Team Beff Jezos? 00:04:26 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™ 00:06:28 — Worthy Successors & the Transhumanist Door 00:08:29 — The Orthogonality Thesis: Our Core Disagreement 00:15:14 — The Universality Threshold & David Deutsch 00:19:22 — Paperclips Won’t Happen Because “It’s Boring” 00:27:23 — Natural Selection vs Human Engineering 00:36:26 — Nanobots: Can ASI Build Them Unseen? 00:46:49 — Identifying the Cruxes of Disagreement 00:55:01 — Closing Statements Links Follow Lumpenspace — https://x.com/lumpenspace Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    1 h

  7. 5. SVI

    NEW: Watch the Eliezer Yudkowsky vs. Secret AI Lab Director Debate on my other channel!

    📢 BREAKING: A man known only as "@47fucb4r8c69323" just paid Eliezer Yudkowsky $10,000 to have a raw, uncut, public debate on my YouTube channel! Tensions run high as 47f confronts Eliezer about his "If anyone builds it, everyone dies" rhetoric, warning it could incite unstable individuals to harm AI researchers and their families, while Eliezer maintains that the possibility of extinction from superintelligent AI is too high to *not* speak out about.They also clash over whether we truly understand how LLMs work. Yudkowsky highlights the lack of extracted algorithms that explain their qualitative intelligence, while 47f dismisses these concerns as a fundamental misunderstanding of how text modeling works. While this may not be the highest quality debate I’ve ever hosted, I hope it’s a step toward more attention and public discourse on this urgent, high-stakes topic. P.S. Please consider supporting my work with a tax-deductible donation. Read more… Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    1 min

  8. 2. SVI

    Who Paid $10,000 to Debate Yudkowsky? Plus AI Twitter & Investing Tips - Doom Debates Live (5/1/26)

    Livestream with Producer Ori covering Eliezer Yudkowsky's next BIG debate, why $GOOG is such a steal at $4T, and what's going down on AI twitter. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Kicking off the Livestream 00:06:08 — Eliezer Yudkowsky Debate Announcement 00:13:17 — Who’s Yudkowsky’s Debate Challenger? 00:25:32 — METR’s Capability Extrapolation Came True 00:28:25 — Google: The Big Rally I Called 00:33:06 — The Federal Reserve’s Extinction Chart 00:36:06 — Liron’s Private Market Alpha Strategy 00:40:35 — The Quadrillion-Dollar Economy 00:47:54 — Bernie Sanders Gets It 00:53:11 — Is Anthropic a Good Investment? 01:07:42 — The Goblin Discourse 01:10:52 — Codex, Claude Code & Live Coding Demo 01:28:48 — Wrap-Up Links Yudkowsky debate announcement: https://x.com/liron/status/2050035001203229010 Liron's Yudkowsky interview: https://x.com/liron/status/2050035003900223770 METR capability extrapolation: https://x.com/nikolaj2030/status/2050276020146880661 Bernie Sanders on AI risk: https://x.com/SenSanders/status/2048107882760085618 Federal Reserve extinction chart: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2025/0624 Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    1 h 32 min
Pogledajte sve (162)

Opis

It's time to talk about the end of the world. With your host, Liron Shapira. lironshapira.substack.com

Informacije

  • Autor
    Liron Shapira
  • Aktivne godine
    2024. - 2026.
  • Epizode
    162
  • Ocjena
    Eksplicitno
  • Copyright
    © Liron Shapira
  • Web‑stranica emisije
    Doom Debates!

Također bi vam se moglo svidjeti