The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche
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Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

  1. 10 hr ago

    #410 Chris Whalen: Age of Uncertainty - Falling Home Prices, Cracks in Private Credit, & Sidelined Fed

    Chris Whalen returns after the FOMC's 25-basis-point hike and calls it what he wrote in his notes: lame. His argument is that the Fed has become the tail and the Treasury the dog — with a $2 trillion deficit running above 6% of GDP, monetary policy is close to irrelevant, and Kevin Warsh will eventually be forced back into QE and debt monetization whether he wants it or not. That leaves Congress, which Whalen says has stopped doing the one job only it can do, prompting a provocative exchange with Julia about whether a fiscal crisis ends with a manager running the purse the way FDR ran 1933. From there the conversation turns to where the damage shows up: housing, where more than half of American homes fell in price over the past year and Whalen expects a real correction into 2028; private credit and insurance, where he agrees with Jeffrey Gundlach that private credit is the fuse and the insurers are the bomb, and warns annuity holders at the wrong carriers may not be made whole; and energy, where the Houthis' grip on the Red Sea may force the refining industry to redeploy away from the Persian Gulf entirely. He also walks through his own portfolio — Schwab, Flagstar, Annaly, AGNC, and steady additions to gold and silver — explains why he holds no T-bills, and gives his take on the SEC's innovation exemption, calling crypto tokens a polite form of fraud better regulated by state gaming commissions. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 – Welcome back 1:03 – "The Fed had to do something or be irrelevant" 5:38 – Is the FOMC even relevant anymore? 5:57 – Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail 6:20 – The Fed will be forced to monetize the debt 6:48 – A dysfunctional Congress 9:39 – The age of uncertainty 10:00 – Half of American homes fell in price this year 11:12 – Misery on the Eights: the correction into 2028 11:24 – Gundlach: private credit is the fuse, insurance is the bomb 11:50 – How PE used insurers to compound too fast 13:28 – Why annuity holders are calling 14:02 – Duration matching and the part of the industry that works 15:28 – Energy 16:03 – Trump, the war he started, and no leadership 17:15 – Echoes of the 1970s — and Europe's winter 18:41 – Bank stocks are dead; deposit costs are rising again 20:34 – The AI trade 21:28 – Where do you put money with no clear narrative? 21:48 – Gold doesn't trade like a stock 22:20 – Chris on his own portfolio 23:06 – Schwab, Bank of America, and the low-hanging fruit nobody picks 24:52 – Crypto: the SEC's innovation exemption after Clarity failed 27:03 – Can Congress legislate at all after the midterms? 28:18 – Viewer Q: Does flattening change the Annaly call? 29:33 – Why Chris owns no T-bills 30:26 – What he's watching the rest of the year 31:37 – Close

  2. 2 days ago

    #409 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Fed Is Hiking Into Recession, Consumers Tapped Out, & Credit Tightening

    Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and author of Fed Up, joins Julia La Roche to break down the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike under Chair Kevin Warsh. The statement first looked dovish, but markets reversed after Warsh's record-short 29-minute press conference hinted at more hikes. That sent the 10-year Treasury to 5.01%, its highest level since 2007. Danielle argues Warsh has broken his own "zero forward guidance" pledge and is "enamored with his narrative" of a Goldilocks economy. She points to a labor market already in recessionary territory, with long-term unemployed now outnumbering job leavers. She says core PCE inflation is on a steady path lower, while households face mounting strain from gas prices, utility bills, bankruptcies, and tightening credit. The two also discuss the K-shaped economy and why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may not be done acting on the bond market. Danielle explains why peak AI investment, propped up by hyperscaler accounting gains, is the biggest risk she sees. She closes on an optimistic note about the work ethic of today's college-age generation. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links:     Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth   Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 0:40 Fed hikes 25 bps: the big-picture takeaway 1:22 Markets price in three more hikes after the press conference 4:21 Assessing Warsh so far: forward guidance despite his pledge 5:37 Fed projections: 2.5% core PCE, 4.1% unemployment 7:02 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals 8:26 Labor market already in recessionary territory 10:12 Warsh is "enamored with his narrative" 10:53 The household squeeze: gas, utilities, beef to chicken 11:47 Even the top of the K is losing confidence 12:19 AI was 100% of GDP growth, and real AI investment has turned 13:20 Payroll data quirks: the World Cup hiring surge 14:06 Sponsor: Monetary Metals 15:33 Trump's reaction: 10-year at 5.01%, stocks down 16:05 Scott Bessent isn't finished 17:04 Warsh gives Bessent the Heisman 17:41 10-year at a 19-year high, and the Fed was easing last time 18:14 What the Fed is getting wrong: August's one-off inflation blips 20:03 Core PCE is coming down, plus BEA methodology changes 20:56 Bankruptcy lawyers are making bank: record filings 22:23 Do rate hikes even work? Cash-out refis and credit tightening 23:29 The stock market isn't the economy: airlines and the top of the K 25:16 Is Warsh chasing the wrong monkey on his back? 25:47 Other worries: PE bankruptcies, rogue AI agents, socialism 27:22 Bernanke's 2% target and post-COVID stimulus 28:31 The risk keeping her up at night: peak AI investment 29:49 Hyperscaler accounting games and the "E" in P/E 31:40 What's making her optimistic 33:25 Wrap-up

  3. 3 days ago

    #408 Jeffrey Gundlach: We've Crossed to the Hard Side of the Street

    Legendary bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show. He warns that the market has "crossed over to the hard side of the street." With the Shiller CAPE above 42, he says history points to negative real returns for the next decade. Cracks are already showing in AI-related credit, where junk bonds and bank loans have widened sharply while the rest of high yield holds up. Gundlach says he now wants out of the AI "epicenter" entirely. He walks through his current portfolio: equal-weight equities, a barbell of high-quality bonds and local-currency emerging market debt, gold, commodities, and short-duration "dry powder." He expects CPI to print above 4% as oil tops $100 and diesel hits $8 a gallon, and he predicts a 25 basis point hike from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. He also explains why 30-year TIPS won't protect investors from rising rates and why he's skeptical of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's Operation Twist. He sees a dangerous web of private credit, arbitraged credit ratings, and offshore reinsurance, calling private credit the fuse and insurance companies the bomb. He urges annuity buyers to stick with mutual insurers and warns that bailout pressure will be intense when the AI and private markets reckoning arrives.Thank you to our partnersAugusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@DoubleLineCapitalWebsite: https://doubleline.com/Webcasts: https://doubleline.com/doubleline-webcasts/0:00 Intro1:16 Shiller CAPE, a decade of negative real returns? 3:33 The mood turns: AI credit starts to crack8:10 Gundlach Unlocked: his new portfolio with zero AI exposure12:12 Gold, plus commodities and dry powder17:25 Rising rates and the $40 trillion debt milestone17:55 Operation Twist and the endgame for the debt22:19 Oil above $100 and a near-empty Strategic Petroleum Reserve25:12 Why CPI is headed above 4% and Warsh's 2% promise28:54 The German Bund and GDP model for the 10-year31:54 When he'd buy long bonds35:27 Will Warsh hike? 38:31 Advice for Scott Bessent? 40:14 The Fed follows the 2-year41:20 Dollar debasement and the 30-year TIPS myth43:29 Why you can't trust credit ratings46:27 Private credit is the fuse, insurers are the bomb53:25 Peak optimism: this feels like 1999 and 20061:01:18 Final warning: the hard side of the street

  4. 12 Sept

    #407 Chris Whalen: $100 Oil, 5% Rates, and a Home Price Correction Coming for the Whole Country

    The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a summer vacation with a blunt read on the fall ahead: affordability — fuel, housing, food — has already decided the midterms, and the Iran conflict plus the Russia-Ukraine war have created a shortage not just of crude but of refined products, with refinery maintenance season and the shift to heating oil set to push prices higher still. He calls $100 oil and a 5% 10-year Treasury the new normal, argues Scott Bessent's buyback strategy has failed, and expects a quarter-point hike next week while raising the more unsettling question: what happens if the Fed raises short rates and the long end goes up anyway? On gold, Whalen is still accumulating, sees $6,000–$7,000 only after a fiscal catalyst like a bad Treasury auction, and points to Shanghai's gold-linked clearing system and Russia's 100-ton sale to China as evidence of where physical demand really lives. He also answers viewer questions on the exodus at Fannie Mae, the flawed data behind credit scores, how to actually save in gold, why he owns only Flagstar and Schwab, and warns that Florida's home price correction is coming for the rest of the country next year. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 – Welcome back: summer's over, a lot to catch up on 0:50 – Energy prices and the midterms: decided at the pump? 1:13 – Affordability is the story: diesel, heating oil, Europe's supply crisis 2:51 – The $5,000 "Trump dividend" and buying votes 4:13 – What nobody in Washington will say about insolvency 5:00 – FDICIA, continuing resolutions, and a Congress that can't say no 6:34 – Oil near $100: does it get worse from here? 7:33 – Rates "going back to normal" after 15 years of Fed subsidy 9:24 – Calling 5% on the 10-year — and Bessent's failed buyback strategy 10:29 – Warsh rules out QE, spreads tighten anyway 11:57 – Why banks are suddenly buying multifamily 12:58 – Is 5% a stop along the way or the destination? 14:31 – What Chris expects from the Fed next week 15:06 – The big question: what if the Fed has lost the long end? 16:11 – What losing control of long rates would actually signal 17:24 – Gold with David Kotok, and why it's not a trading vehicle 18:28 – Tom McClellan on the oil–gold relationship (with a 16-month lag) 20:09 – A quiet year: banks, AI trade, and boring winners 21:17 – What takes gold from $4–5K to $6–7K 22:00 – Russia sells 100 tons of gold to China 22:53 – Is the dollar really in decline? CIPS, Shanghai, and sanctions 24:12 – How high can diesel and Brent go this winter? 25:30 – Iran, the Houthis, and the Red Sea 26:59 – Viewer Q: What's happening inside Fannie Mae? 28:30 – Pulte, VantageScore, and the bad-data problem in credit scoring 29:39 – Viewer Q: How do you actually save in gold? 30:45 – Florida home prices are falling — "Misery on the Eights" 31:31 – Viewer Q: The big money center banks 32:47 – Viewer Q: Book recommendations and the gold book 33:23 – Closing thoughts: an age of instability

  5. 8 Sept

    #407 Larry McDonald: The Bond Market's Biggest Contrarian Trade

    New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to break down what he's hearing from the veteran investors in his network — and the shift he's watching in real time. Portfolio managers who spent two years as raging bulls have turned bearish on the financials and are quietly spending a slice of their gains on downside protection while volatility is cheap. McDonald walks through the mechanics of the data center financing boom: hundreds of billions in off-balance-sheet debt from the hyperscalers, the banks now holding that exposure, and the credit default swaps those same banks are buying on the Mag 7. He explains why he sees a late-2006 rhyme in private credit and the CCC market, why diesel prices could re-spark inflation over the next few CPI prints, and why the most crowded trade on Wall Street right now may be the bearish one on bonds. Plus: the "supernova" dynamic that turns a hot economy into a fast recession, why he's still long hard assets, and the one risk he thinks almost nobody is talking about. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/ 0:00 — Intro 1:18 — A million books sold, and what the ideas dinners reveal 3:07 — Where the smart money is shifting right now 4:39 — How investors are buying protection: CDS, puts, VIX ETFs 5:35 — Late cycle: data center financing and the Mag 7's cash burn 7:00 — Meta's $30B off-balance-sheet financing and what banks did next 8:22 — Why banks are buying CDS on the companies they lend to 9:42 — Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators: CCCs, LQD, private credit 11:00 — "You're manufacturing Bernie Madoffs": no business cycle, no cleansing 12:21 — Midterms, the Treasury, and the DSA risk to the long end 17:00 — Why inflation isn't as tame as it looks — diesel is the tell 18:56 — Scott Bessent vs. the "faculty lounge" Treasury 21:44 — The Google bond at 88, the Apple bond at 49 23:39 — Are there hidden SVBs out there? 25:55 — The contrarian trade: buying duration when everyone's bearish 27:42 — What the bond market is signaling 29:40 — Why the bad news is 80-90% priced in 31:49 — The supernova effect and how recessions actually start 33:06 — Hedging equities: puts on the financials at record price-to-book 34:30 — Biggest under-the-radar risk 36:00 — What he's still long: energy, coal, copper, gold miners 37:22 — Where to find the Bear Traps Report

  6. 29 Aug

    #406 Chris Whalen Answers Your Questions on Gold, the Fed, and Retirement Risk

    In part two of the all-viewer-question edition of The Wrap, Chris Whalen and Julia tackle everything from gold confiscation to credit union safety. Chris argues that a 1933-style seizure is possible in a debt crisis, since heavy government borrowing effectively encumbers every asset in the country, and that offshore physical gold is the only real protection. He explains why rising gold prices pressure the Treasury and gradually erode the dollar's role as the world's medium of exchange, drawing parallels to the monetary fragmentation of post-Roman Europe that he's been researching for his upcoming book. Along the way he critiques Jerome Powell for extending QE long after credit spreads normalized in 2020, pushes back on fears of a boomer-driven market selloff, breaks down how Annaly Capital actually makes money, flags private-credit takeovers of insurance companies as a genuine risk to annuity holders, and shares his own portfolio split. He closes with thoughts on land value taxes, the likelihood of a US VAT, and life in Florida versus New York. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 - Cold open: "No democracy can have sound money" 0:25 - Welcome back — viewer questions only 1:31 - Could the government confiscate gold again like 1933? 4:50 - Inside Chris's new book on gold 6:37 - Gold price outlook: 2026, 2027, 2028 8:30 - Best ways to own metals without holding physical 9:27 - Why we ran surpluses from 1998-2001 10:30 - What Jerome Powell should have done differently 13:44 - Will retiring boomers crash the market? 15:42 - Equal-weight S&P funds at current valuations 16:04 - Nvidia financing its own customers: circular financing? 18:06 - Annaly (NLY) explained: leverage, servicing, and lending 20:51 - Common shares or preferred? 21:41 - Is the 60/40 portfolio dead? Chris's actual allocation 23:47 - Are credit unions safer than banks? 25:22 - Annuity owners: how to protect yourself from insolvency 27:07 - Land value taxes, wealth taxes, and the case for a VAT 28:37 - Florida vs. New York: an honest review 30:00 - Wrap-up and housekeeping

  7. 25 Aug

    #405 Ted Oakley: Gold Still Cheap at $4,600, The Energy Move Could Be Bigger, & 3 Signs of a Stock Market Top

    Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, returns to explain why he sold all his silver and much of his gold exposure in late 2025 and early 2026 — then bought it all back, and more, in mid-July. With gold near $4,600 he argues it's still roughly 18–20% below its January high and nowhere near expensive if you're thinking in terms of a one-and-a-half to two-year horizon and a $7,000–$8,000 objective. The driver, in his view, is a loss of faith in the dollar backed by a fiscal picture with no exit: within five years, entitlements plus a slice of defense will exceed total federal revenue. Oakley explains why he'll only own Treasuries inside twenty-four months, why investors stuck in 20- and 30-year bond funds have lost millions with no way out, and why energy may be the bigger opportunity than gold — underowned after years of fossil-fuel divestment, profitable at $70–80 oil, and paying dividends from 6% to 11%. He also lays out the three classic ingredients of a market top, all of which he says are now in place, and previews his forthcoming book Asleep at the Wheel, aimed at boomers who've stopped rebalancing. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168 Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro 01:04 – Gold/silver discussion 02:44 – "Is it too late?" Gold at $4,600 03:55 – The real case for hard assets: losing faith in the dollar 05:09 – $40 trillion in debt and Bessent's long-bond buybacks 07:38 – Why Oakley won't own anything past 24 months 10:16 – What gold is signaling — and why energy could move next 12:20 – The energy thesis: underowned, cheap, 6–11% dividends 15:17 – The psychology of buying and selling 19:04 – Why energy isn't a buy-and-hold — and the copper trade 22:08 – Commodities as the AI trade, and cracks in the semis 23:37 – The three ingredients of a market top are all here 26:00 – "Aren't you missing out?" Oakley's answer 29:03 – How the Fed ruined fifteen years of price discovery 31:56 – Half the industry has never seen a real bear market 35:11 – The boomers who won't rebalance 37:00 – Asleep at the Wheel 40:32 – Parting thoughts: learn to go against the grain

  8. 22 Aug

    #404 Chris Whalen Answers Your Questions on the Fed, Rates & the Next Bailout

    In part one of The Wrap's viewer question special, Chris Whalen takes on a full slate of audience questions about the Fed, the Treasury, and where rates go from here. He explains why Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent have largely written off war-driven inflation as something monetary policy can't fix, and what it would actually take to change that posture. From there he walks through the plumbing most commentary skips: why shrinking bank reserves would push short-term yields down rather than up, how the Treasury can run its own version of quantitative easing through repurchase agreements, and why the Fed's mortgage-backed securities book — much of it now carrying an average life measured in decades — represents what he calls a study in hubris. He also fields the practical questions: whether long Treasuries are worth owning (his answer is no), where he'd park cash instead, what a 5% 10-year does to the deficit math, and how big the next crisis-era bailout would have to be. The episode closes on the yen carry trade, the limits of what Washington can do about it, and Whalen's expectation that nothing difficult gets attempted before the midterms. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 — Cold open: shrinking reserves and the Treasury's repo plan 0:33 — Welcome + what this episode is (part one of viewer Q&A) 1:10 — How long will the Fed stay indifferent to inflation? 4:08 — Could we cut the Fed out of rate decisions and just use SOFR? 5:02 — Would you buy a 30-year bond at these rates? 6:35 — If the Fed shrinks its balance sheet, don't rates go up? 9:43 — What does "Treasury doing QE on the short end" actually mean? 12:30 — A word from Monetary Metals 13:56 — Can the Treasury handle 5% on the 10-year? 15:26 — T-bills — pros, cons, and better alternatives 16:25 — How big does the next bailout have to be? 18:48 — The yen, intervention, and the carry-trade squeeze 21:16 — The biggest macro story of the back half of the year 23:37 — Parting thoughts: Florida, earnings season, and UWM next week

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About

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Information

  • Creator
    Julia La Roche
  • Years Active
    2022 - 2026
  • Episodes
    413
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Julia La Roche
  • Show Website
    The Julia La Roche Show

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