Riedman Report: Risk, AI, Education, & Security

David Riedman, PhD

School shootings, mass shootings, extremism, terrorism, and systemic gun violence are not separate domains. They all sit at the intersection of risk, security, education, and technology/artificial intelligence (AI). riedmanreport.substack.com

  1. 13 FEB

    Ep 68. Death isn't a manageable risk because we all die someday

    Risk: exposure of someone or something valued to danger, harm, or loss. New Paper: Critical thinking: exploring the expansion of critical infrastructure Guest: Dr. Russell Lundberg, Sam Houston State University Abstract: The concept of critical infrastructure (CI) has evolved significantly across developed nations since the early 2000s, with the United States providing a particularly illustrative example of this global trend. Initially focused on assets whose incapacitation would cause debilitating national impacts, the U.S. framework expanded after September 11th, 2001 to encompass a broader array of sectors and assets, diluting the meaning of criticality. Even among the most vital lifeline sectors— energy, communications, water, and transportation—analysis reveals that the resilience of these systems often precludes national-level consequences from isolated failures. To address these issues, CI policy should transition from viewing assets as inherently critical to evaluating their criticality in relation to systemic risks posed by specific threats. This shift would enable more effective prioritization, focusing resources on protecting assets most vulnerable to realistic, high-impact scenarios while reducing the inefficiencies of over-inclusiveness. By re-centering the concept of criticality, CI policy can better align with its original intent of safeguarding national security and resilience. Papers Referenced: * Questioning the Criticality of Critical Infrastructure: A Case Study Analysis * The Cold War on Terrorism: Reevaluating Critical Infrastructure Facilities as Targets for Terrorist Attacks * Ep 22: The Fortress Problem is a paradox because defenses create vulnerabilities David Riedman, PhD is the creator of the K-12 School Shooting Database, Chief Data Officer at a global risk management firm, and a tenure-track professor. Listen to my podcast—Riedman Report: Risk, AI, Education & Security—or my recent interviews on Freakonomics Radio and the New England Journal of Medicine. Riedman Report: Risk, AI, Education, & Security is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Riedman Report: Risk, AI, Education, & Security at riedmanreport.substack.com/subscribe

    1h 3m
  2. 26 JAN

    A letter from July 4, 1776

    July 4, 1776 - The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America. When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation. We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world. He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good. He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them. He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only. He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures. He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people. He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within. He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands. He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers. He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries. He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance. He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures. He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power. He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation: For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us: For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States: For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world: For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent: For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury: For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences: For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies: For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments: For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever. He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us. He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people. He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation. He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands. He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions. In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people. Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends. We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor. David Riedman, PhD is the creator of the K-12 School Shooting Database, Chief Data Officer at a global risk management firm, and a tenure-track professor. Listen to my podcast—Riedman Report: Risk, AI, Education & Security—or my recent interviews on Freakonomics Radio and the New England Journal of Medicine. Riedman Report: Risk, AI, Education, & Security is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Riedman Report: Risk, AI, Education, & Security at riedmanreport.substack.com/subscribe

    12 min
  3. 12 JAN

    Ep 67. Why school dismissal is the highest risk time for a shooting

    Article: Afterschool Child Firearm Assaults: A Quasi-Experimental Analysis Guests: Emma L. Gause, MS, MA & Jonathan Jay, DrPH, JD Abstract: Objective: Firearms are the leading cause of death among children in the United States with resources primarily dedicated to the prevention of school shootings. However, child firearm assault risk may surge during afterschool hours when children leave school and enter unsupervised and unstructured community spaces. We investigated child firearm injury risk at the afterschool transition in New York City (NYC). Methods: Firearm assaults from the NYC Police Department and school calendars from NYC Public Schools were obtained for 2006-2023, excluding COVID years. We fit a difference-in-difference (DiD) analysis to investigate whether firearm injuries increased into the afterschool hours more on school days compared to non-school days. We subsequently fit a regression discontinuity design (RDD) model to assess whether firearm injuries increased abruptly at the transition to afterschool. We used the conventional 2pm threshold for defining the afterschool transition based on prior literature and used the 25th percentile of enrollment-weighted school dismissal times as a sensitivity analysis. Results: 359 of 613 child firearm assault injuries recorded between 10am-6pm occurred on school days across the 2006-2023 study period (excluding COVID school-years). The DiD results fount that the risk of child firearm injury increased by 45% (RR:1.45, 95%CI: 0.95-2.20) after the 2pm afterschool transition on school days compared to non-school days, though the result was not statistically significant. The RDD model revealed there was also significant increase of 2.5 (0.49, 4.41) additional child firearm injuries at the 2pm threshold, an approximately 280% increase compared to the school-day average. Results using the dismissal threshold were positive but insignificant. Other episodes discussed: * Ep 29. Gun violence exposure on walkable routes to and from school * Ep 38. Dr. Jens Ludwig explains his new book ‘Unforgiving Places’ David Riedman, PhD is the creator of the K-12 School Shooting Database, Chief Data Officer at a global risk management firm, and a tenure-track professor. Listen to my podcast—Riedman Report: Risk, AI, Education & Security—or my recent interviews on Freakonomics Radio and the New England Journal of Medicine. This is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Riedman Report: Risk, AI, Education, & Security at riedmanreport.substack.com/subscribe

    51 min
  4. 29/12/2025

    How a teen girl became a school shooting icon

    The Tragic Repetition of School Shootings (aired 12/17/2025) by A Public Affair on WORT in Madison, WI. This week marks the 1-year anniversary of the shooting at the Abundant Life Christian School in Madison. Meanwhile the search for the Brown University shooter is ongoing. To talk about these events and the ongoing crisis of school shootings across the US, host Ali Muldrow is joined by Dr. David Riedman who tracks these shootings and the online communities that foster gun violence. Dr. Riedman takes an evidence-driven approach to the study of school shootings. He’s tracked 3,400 shootings back to the 1960s, including 226 of which were deliberately planned. He says there are some common denominators when it comes to shootings: the vast majority are committed by a current or recently former student who has likely experienced abuse in their home, has easy access to a gun, and has shown signs of distress, like leaving weapons out, leaving out maps of their schools, and making shrines to previous school shooters. These realities may run counter to the desire to view school shooters as deranged, lone-wolf outsiders. Instead, Dr. Riedman calls the majority of school shootings “violent public suicides.” They also talk about the stereotype that public and urban schools are more dangerous than private, rural, or suburban schools, even though the majority of school shootings occur in small suburban communities and rural schools. Dr. Riedman advises that parents be educated about past school shootings in order to spot signs that kids are becoming radicalized by online communities like the True Crime Community (TCC) and Groyper movement, led by white nationalist influencer, Nick Fuentes. Meanwhile young people in Wisconsin have been calling for better mental health resources and better gun storage laws. David Riedman, PhD is the creator of the K-12 School Shooting Database, Chief Data Officer at a global risk management firm, and a tenure-track professor. Listen to my weekly podcast—Back to School Shootings—or my recent interviews on Freakonomics Radio and the New England Journal of Medicine. School Shooting Data Analysis and Reports is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Riedman Report: Risk, AI, Education, & Security at riedmanreport.substack.com/subscribe

    54 min
  5. 22/12/2025

    Ep 66. Are School Shootings a Unique Form of Violence?

    Paper: Are School Shootings a Unique Form of Violence? A Comparison of the Individual and Contextual Correlates of Nonfatal School Shootings and Youth Gun Violence Abstract: School shootings have been traditionally viewed as a unique form of violence in which disgruntled suburban White boys indiscriminately target their peers and cause mass injury; however, a series of recent studies that employ broader definitions of school shootings suggest they more closely resemble community-based gun violence. This study tests the fundamental assumption that school shootings are a unique form of violence using multi-level logistic regression models to compare the individual and contextual correlates of 752 nonfatal school shootings to 28,109 nonfatal public shootings across 1,098 counties and 45 U.S. states from 2015 to 2019. Results indicate minimal differences between school shootings and public shootings, which are likely shaped by the school context. The analysis suggests that school gun violence is not a unique phenomenon from community gun violence and may share a similar etiology. Authors: * Kyle G. Knapp is a doctoral candidate in the College of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Florida State University. His research interests include mass violence, gun violence, intimate partner violence, gender, and communities and crime. * Emma E. Fridel, PhD, is an assistant professor in the College of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Florida State University. She received her PhD in Criminology and Justice Policy from Northeastern University. She primarily studies violence and aggression with a focus on homicide, including gun violence, school violence, homicide–suicide, serial and mass murder, and fatal officer-citizen encounters. David Riedman, PhD is the creator of the K-12 School Shooting Database, Chief Data Officer at a global risk management firm, and a tenure-track professor. Listen to my weekly podcast—Back to School Shootings—or my recent interviews on Freakonomics Radio and the New England Journal of Medicine. School Shooting Data Analysis and Reports is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Riedman Report: Risk, AI, Education, & Security at riedmanreport.substack.com/subscribe

    1h 3m
  6. 15/12/2025

    Ep 65. When a school shooting happens, will you Run, Hide, or Freeze?

    New Paper: Run, Hide, or Freeze: Social and Emotional Influence on Behavior in an Immersive School Shooting Simulation Abstract: As school shootings rise in frequency across the United States, understanding how individuals respond during such crises is critical for developing effective safety protocols. This study used an immersive, computer-based simulation to investigate how social influence and emotion level from non-player characters (NPCs) affect behavior during an active shooter event. A total of 285 participants were randomly assigned to one of six experimental conditions varying NPC behavior (run, hide, or mixed) and emotional intensity (high vs. low). Participants were more likely to run when surrounded by NPCs who ran and more likely to hide when NPCs hid, showing that social influence significantly shaped behavior. Emotional evocative imagery and sounds, however, did not significantly affect decision-making. Increases in negative affect after the simulation and male gender were also associated with a greater likelihood of running. These findings suggest that visible social behavior, rather than emotion, drives emergency responses and highlights the value of social modeling in safety training. Guest (primary author): Kevin Kapadia, PhD candidate in Quantitative Psychology at University of Southern California First Paper (part 1 of the simulation series): The Impact of Social Influence and Threat Uncertainty on Behavior in a School Shooting Simulation David Riedman, PhD is the creator of the K-12 School Shooting Database, Chief Data Officer at a global risk management firm, and a tenure-track professor. Listen to my weekly podcast—Back to School Shootings—or my recent interviews on Freakonomics Radio and the New England Journal of Medicine. School Shooting Data Analysis and Reports is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Riedman Report: Risk, AI, Education, & Security at riedmanreport.substack.com/subscribe

    38 min
  7. 09/12/2025

    Ep 64. Treatable victims die during school shootings and 3 ER doctors have solutions

    Article (pre-submission/pre-publication): Early Medical Response in Active-Shooter Incidents. A Systematic Review of After-Action Reports Guests: * Dr. Dominique Wong is an attending physician the Cabell Huntington Hospital Emergency Department and chair of the hospital’s Medical Readiness Committee. She also serves as a tactical physician and medical director for police SWAT and Tactical EMS teams, trains law enforcement officers and the US military, and serves in leadership roles with the American College of Emergency Physicians, Tactical and Law Enforcement Medicine Section. * Dr. Clay Young is a board certified emergency physician with over 25 years of clinical experience. As a former director of a flight service he has demonstrated leadership in pre-hospital emergency medicine. Dr. Young is committed to advancing public safety through the education and training of law enforcement personnel in life saving interventions and active shooter medical response. He is a graduate of the University of Kentucky college of medicine, a father of four, and an active hiker and fly fisherman. * Dr. Beth Toppins is an emergency medicine physician practicing in her hometown of Huntington, West Virginia. A graduate of Marshall University School of Medicine, she has served as an Emergency Department physician at Cabell Huntington Hospital since 2003 and currently serves as the Emergency Department Medical Director. She previously held leadership roles in regional EMS and has worked alongside Drs. Wong and Young to provide medical training to law enforcement across West Virginia. Outside the hospital, Beth is a proud mother of four and wife to Eric, and the children’s pastor at Christ Temple Church in Huntington, where she is an active member. Abstract: * Background: Timely medical response can improve survivability in active shooter incidents (ASI). This systematic review evaluates law enforcement, emergency medical services (EMS), rescue task force (RTF) and tactical emergency medical support (TEMS) medical response in ASI. * Methods: After-action reports (AARs) from U.S. ASI (1999–2022) were retrospectively reviewed. Point of injury (POI) medical response time for police, EMS, RTF, and TEMS was reviewed. Medical response type provided by law enforcement was also examined * Results: Thirty-one AARs representing 19 ASI were analyzed. Police provided medical response in every case, most commonly (84%) casualty extrication. In 21% of incidents, law enforcement provided the full spectrum of response: direct care, extrication and transportation to a hospital. RTF victim access was frequently delayed and in 43% of incidents, RTF providers never reached casualties at the POI. TEMS medical response times varied. Barricade hostage situations delayed all medical responders. * Conclusion: Police consistently provided early medical care in ASIs, while EMS, RTF and TEMS faced challenges accessing ASI casualties in a timely manner. These findings suggest law enforcement officers play a critical role in early medical response and may help reduce preventable deaths in AS incidents. My additional points on this topic: School shooting victims who could be saved with rapid transport to a hospital have died inside their schools because EMS crews are directed to wait outside until police issue an ‘all clear’ order. To address this long-standing problem, many agencies created combined EMS/police ‘rescue task force’ units or tactical EMS units with body armor to go inside and find victims…but these units take ~30 minutes to arrive and assemble. At this point, critically wounded students and teachers are already dead. In October 2022, a teacher and student were shot with an AR-15 rifle inside CVPA High in St. Louis. They were still alive when police killed the shooter, yet EMS waited outside for 20 minutes until police gave the all clear. Teacher Jean Kuczka and 15-year-old student Alexzandria Bell both died waiting for help inside. With military-style rifles being used by most school shooters, a school campus is like a battlefield where “the majority of combat casualties die within ten minutes of the trauma” (PubMed: Wounded in action: The platinum ten minutes and the golden hour). Instead of unnecessarily cautious policies that protect adult EMS providers against theoretical (and often imagined) dangers, we need to shift the status quo to accepting managed risks to save the lives of innocent children with critical gunshot injuries. Here are two of my articles about this problem: * When ‘Eddie Would Go’ so should police, fire, and EMS * Wounded victims can die when plans are based on the ‘second shooter’ fallacy David Riedman, PhD is the creator of the K-12 School Shooting Database, Chief Data Officer at a global risk management firm, and a tenure-track professor. Listen to my weekly podcast—Back to School Shootings—or my recent interviews on Freakonomics Radio and the New England Journal of Medicine. School Shooting Data Analysis and Reports is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Riedman Report: Risk, AI, Education, & Security at riedmanreport.substack.com/subscribe

    49 min

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School shootings, mass shootings, extremism, terrorism, and systemic gun violence are not separate domains. They all sit at the intersection of risk, security, education, and technology/artificial intelligence (AI). riedmanreport.substack.com