CAPS Unlock Podcast

Peter Leonard
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  1. 2 DAYS AGO

    Why China cares so much about Tajikistan

    This week’s episode begins with Tajik President Emomali Rahmon’s state visit to China, a trip that produced 31 agreements and a conspicuously grand treaty of “eternal friendship and good-neighbourliness.” The language was theatrical, but the substance was less silly. The visit showed how broad the China–Tajikistan relationship has become, spanning infrastructure, energy, artificial intelligence, education, media, party-to-party cooperation and regional security. The discussion focused on why Beijing invests so much political energy in Tajikistan, a small economy with relatively modest trade volumes compared with Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan. The answer lies less in market size than in geography. Tajikistan matters because of connectivity, its border with Afghanistan, and its role in China’s wider westward transport ambitions. A highway corridor through the Pamirs offers a concrete example: a difficult, strategically important route supported by Chinese financing and contractors, but also one exposed to violence along the Afghan border. The episode then turned to the informal summit of the Organization of Turkic States in Turkestan, Kazakhstan. Officially, the summit focused on artificial intelligence and digital development. More broadly, it raised the question of whether the OTS is evolving from a cultural forum into a more serious geopolitical platform. The Middle Corridor, Turkey’s regional ambitions, Russia’s irritation and the limits of security cooperation all featured in the discussion. The conclusion was cautious: the OTS is becoming more relevant, but its members still avoid choices that would force them into open alignment against Russia or China. For this week’s interview, Ablay Dosmaganbetov of the University of Central Asia discussed his paper, co-authored with Bakhytzhan Kurmanov, on the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative. The paper asks whether transparency really creates accountability in authoritarian systems. Its answer is sceptical: in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, EITI often works less as a watchdog mechanism than as a signalling tool that helps governments appear reform-minded without ceding real political control. LINKS Accountability, Civil Society, and Economic Growth: Exploring the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative’s Adoption in Central Asia and Beyond, by Ablay Dosmaganbetov and Bakhytzhan Kurmanov - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/polp.70117?af=R On Think Tanks - https://onthinktanks.org/ China Daily coverage of Rahmon visit - https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202605/12/WS6a02f2cca310d6866eb482f8.html Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

    40 min

  2. 12 MAY

    Kazakhstan’s AI future has a language problem

    This week on the CAPS Unlock podcast, we begin in Kazakhstan, where a new political party has appeared just ahead of parliamentary elections expected later this year. The party is called Adilet, meaning “justice,” and its sudden emergence has already raised familiar questions about how political competition works in Kazakhstan. Its leader, Aibek Dadebay, was until very recently head of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s administration, which makes it hard to treat Adilet as a spontaneous grassroots force. Its platform closely echoes Tokayev’s own language of order, progress, responsibility, patriotism and a “Just Kazakhstan”. The more interesting question may be what Adilet’s arrival means for Amanat, the long-dominant party of power formerly known as Nur Otan. We then turn to Victory Day and the politics of memory across Central Asia. Tokayev and Uzbekistan’s Shavkat Mirziyoyev attended the May 9 parade in Moscow, even as the event became more subdued and more politically charged because of Russia’s war in Ukraine. We discuss why Central Asian leaders still travel to Moscow for this commemoration, how their own domestic speeches increasingly stress national contributions to the Soviet victory, and why Russia’s framing of the war as an overwhelmingly Russian triumph remains so contentious. The conversation also looks at Kyrgyzstan, where a Victory Day concert in Karakol featuring Russian performers drew criticism after it incorporated symbols and rhetoric linked to Russia’s current war in Ukraine. That controversy showed how easily historical memory can slide into present-day propaganda. In this week’s interview, we spoke with Zhannat Bubekbayeva, author of Two Languages, Two Standards: AI and Linguistic Inequality in Kazakhstan’s Public Services. The paper is the first edition of The Argument, CAPS Unlock’s new monthly policy paper series. Bubekbayeva tested Kazakhstan’s eGov AI assistant in Kazakh and Russian and found serious disparities. Kazakh-language users often received less complete, less accurate and less natural responses than Russian-language users. We discussed what this says about digital modernisation, procurement standards, language equality and whether Kazakhstan’s AI-powered public services are really serving citizens equally. Links: * Two Languages, Two Standards: AI and Linguistic Inequality in Kazakhstan’s Public Services — Zhannat Bubekbayeva - https://capsunlock.org/publications/two-languages-two-standards-ai-and-linguistic-inequality-in-kazakhstans-public-services/ * Adilet party platform - https://adilet-partiyasy.kz/ * Fergana article on how Central Asian leaders framed Victory Day - https://fergana.agency/news/146708/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

    40 min

  3. 28 APR

    Kyrgyzstan's sanctions headache, Kazakh permits, and information manipulation

    In this week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we begin with a novelty in the European Union’s sanctions campaign toward Russia. For the first time, Brussels has applied what it calls an anti-circumvention mechanism at the level of an entire country: Kyrgyzstan. The measure is narrow but consequential. It targets specific categories of industrial equipment and financial channels that the EU believes have enabled sanctioned goods to be rerouted into Russia. Bishkek firmly rejects these claims. While the immediate economic impact may be limited, the reputational implications are harder to dismiss. The move sets a precedent: third countries risk direct restrictions if they are seen as transit hubs in sanctions evasion. At the same time, contrasting treatment of Tajik banks, recently removed from the sanctions list, raises questions about how technical these decisions really are. We then turn to Kazakhstan, where confusion over residence permit rules triggered unnecessary alarm. Reports suggested applicants might need advanced Kazakh language proficiency at B2 level. That interpretation proved incorrect. The government later clarified that requirements have not broadly tightened, but instead become more selective. Highly skilled professionals in priority sectors are now exempt from language and scoring requirements, while controls for others are becoming more structured. The episode highlights a recurring issue: policy communication remains uneven, even when the underlying direction is relatively clear. In this week’s interview, we look at foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI) in Central Asia with Shairbek Dzhuraev, executive director of Crossroads Central Asia. Drawing on the European Neighbourhood Council’s report Information Under Pressure, we examine how external actors, primarily Russia and China, project narratives into local information spaces. These campaigns are sustained, coordinated, and adapted to national contexts. In Kazakhstan, messaging is locally calibrated; in Uzbekistan, it is more global and ideological. The conversation also explores a growing “resilience gap,” as pressure on independent media and civil society weakens the region’s ability to respond. Links * Report: Information Under Pressure (European Neighbourhood Council) - https://encouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/CA_FIMI-Report.pdf * European Commission: EU 20th sanctions package announcement - https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_869 * Interview with President Sadyr Japarov (Kabar) - https://ru.kabar.kg/news/intervyu-s-prezidentom-kyrgyzstana-sadyrom-zhaparovym/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

    34 min

  4. 21 APR

    Kazakhstan’s oil shock, Kyrgyzstan’s crypto bet, and a new power broker

    This week on the CAPS Unlock podcast, we examine two sharply different but ultimately connected economic stories from Central Asia, before turning to a revealing interview on Kazakhstan’s changing business landscape. We begin in Kazakhstan, where official data show a roughly 20 percent year-on-year drop in oil production in the first quarter. The decline reflects a convergence of disruptions: a fire at the Tengiz field that temporarily halted output, and repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on infrastructure linked to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Together, these episodes expose a structural vulnerability that is easy to overlook. Despite the fall in volumes, export revenues have held up, largely due to higher global oil prices. That apparent resilience masks a deeper problem: Kazakhstan remains heavily dependent on a single commodity, exported through infrastructure shaped by geopolitical risk. We then turn to Kyrgyzstan, where the government is attempting to position the country as a regional cryptocurrency hub. The scale of activity is striking, with transaction volumes far exceeding national GDP. But the reality is more limited than the headline numbers suggest. Most flows consist of simple currency conversions, often linked to cross-border transactions that bypass traditional banking channels. The government’s challenge is clear: can it transform this transit function into a genuine financial sector, or will it remain a conduit for external capital? Finally, we speak with journalist Chris Rickleton about his investigation into Shakhmurat Mutalip, a little-known businessman whose rapid rise places him at the centre of Kazakhstan’s strategic industries. Rickleton outlines what is known about Mutalip’s background, the role of the infrastructure giant Integra, and the significance of potential deals involving major mining firms. The discussion points to something larger than one individual: a possible reconfiguration of economic power in Kazakhstan, with implications for both domestic elites and foreign investors. LINKS * The Diplomat, Chris Rickleton & Ardak Bukeyeva, investigation on Shakhmurat Mutalip - https://thediplomat.com/2026/04/investigation-is-shakhmurat-mutalip-kazakhstans-new-chosen-one/ * Radio Free Europe/Radio Ozodi – Tajikistan forced cotton cultivation report - https://www.ozodi.org/a/dehqonhoro-dubora-ba-kishti-pakhta-majbur-kardaand/33731032.html Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

    36 min

  5. 14 APR

    Who really rules Turkmenistan?

    In this week’s edition of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we turned our attention to one country that rarely gets the scrutiny it deserves: Turkmenistan. Despite its strategic location, vast gas reserves, and sensitive position between Iran, Afghanistan, and the rest of Central Asia, it remains one of the hardest states in the region to read clearly. Access is limited, reporting is constrained, and much of what emerges does so in fragments. To help make sense of that opacity, this episode brought together two guests with sharply different but complementary perspectives. Galiya Ibragimova, an expert on Central Asia and Eastern Europe and a contributor to Carnegie Politika, discussed the strange and still unresolved power arrangement at the top of the Turkmen state. Since Serdar Berdymukhamedov formally became president in March 2022, his father Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, widely known as Arkadag, has remained a central political force, raising obvious questions about who really governs and how stable that balance is. The conversation also examined the external pressures shaping Turkmenistan’s options. Heavy dependence on gas exports to China, the uncertain prospects of alternative routes, and the fallout from instability in Iran and Afghanistan all leave Ashgabat exposed. Galiya walked through the recent and rather extraordinary episode of Arkadag’s trip to Florida, using it as a window into elite dynamics and the father-son relationship at the top of the regime. But the episode did not stay at the level of palace intrigue. Aynabat Yaylymova, founder of Saglyk and Progres Foundation, brought the discussion back to the realities of daily life inside Turkmenistan: corruption, weak institutions, poor access to healthcare, rising food prices, information controls, and the growing pressure on household budgets. Beyond the rumours surrounding intra-elite tensions, she argued, the more important fact is that ordinary Turkmens continue to pay the price for misrule. The result is a conversation that tries to connect the opaque politics of the Turkmen elite with the far more tangible pressures experienced by people on the ground. LINKS * Progres Foundation - https://progres.online/ * Saglyk - https://saglyk.org/ * Galiya Ibragimova’s author page at Carnegie Politika - https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/people/galiya-ibragimova * Galiya Ibragimova’s article on the Serdar-Gurbanguly power struggle and the Florida episode - https://www.hronikatm.com/2026/04/serdar-vs-arkadag-who-controls-turkmenistan/ * Galiya Ibragimova’s article on Turkmen gas exports and the fallout from the war in Iran - https://www.hronikatm.com/2026/03/pressurized-gas-how-the-wars-surrounding-turkmenistan-are-affecting-gas-exports/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

    44 min

  6. 7 APR

    Central Asia between hunger, the atom and war

    This week’s episode looks at two structural pressures shaping Central Asia’s future: food insecurity in Tajikistan and energy strategy in Kyrgyzstan, before turning to the wider regional impact of the war in Iran. We begin in Tajikistan, where President Emomali Rahmon has warned of unprecedented food price rises. His explanations point outward, to climate change and global instability, but the domestic picture complicates that narrative. At the same time as calling for food security, authorities continue to push farmers toward cotton production. Reporting suggests this is not voluntary: quotas and administrative pressure leave farmers little room to prioritize food crops. The result is a system that prioritizes exportable raw materials over local consumption. That trade-off looks increasingly untenable in a country where malnutrition remains widespread and infrastructure constraints, especially lack of storage, undermine food stability. The contradiction is stark: rising demand for food alongside policies that disincentivize its production. The second story turns to Kyrgyzstan, where officials have floated a referendum on building a nuclear power plant. There are no concrete plans yet, but the signal matters. Electricity demand has risen sharply, while generation has barely kept pace, leaving a widening deficit covered by imports. Hydropower still dominates the system, but its seasonal volatility and exposure to climate risks make it unreliable as a sole backbone. Nuclear is being framed less as a replacement than as a stabilizer, baseload capacity to smooth out fluctuations. In our interview slot, we speak with Shakhlo Kamaladinova, Central Asia Coordinator for the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation. She explains how the war in Iran is affecting Central Asia not geographically, but structurally. Trade routes through Iranian ports remain critical, and disruptions are already feeding into higher insurance costs, logistical uncertainty, and long-term strategic recalculations. While alternative corridors exist, they lack the flexibility to fully compensate. The result is a region increasingly aware of its exposure, but not yet equipped to escape it. Links · Shakhlo Kamaladinova’s article at the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation: · President Rahmon’s speech in Sughd: https://president.tj/event/news/55134 · RFE/RL Tajik service report on Rahmon’s speech: https://www.azattyqasia.org/a/prezident-tadzhikistana-predupredil-o-bespretsedentnom-roste-tsen-na-prodovolstvie-v-etom-godu/33722989.html · Asia-Plus, April 2025, on farmers forced to destroy wheat for cotton: https://asiaplus.news/2025/04/18/v-rajonah-tadzhikistana-mestnye-vlasti-unichtozhayut-posevy-psheniczy-zastavlyaya-dehkan-sazhat-hlopok/ · Asia-Plus, February 2025, on cotton coercion: https://asiaplus.news/2025/02/25/fermerov-tadzhikistana-zastavlyayut-sazhat-hlopok/ · Avesta.tj, on cotton sowing campaign launch: https://avesta.tj/2026/03/27/v-kanibadame-nachalas-kampaniya-po-posevu-hlopka/ · World Food Program, Tajikistan food security data: https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000172887/download/ · Eurasian Development Bank, warehouse infrastructure study: https://eabr.org/analytics/special-reports/warehouse-infrastructure-in-eurasia-the-opportunity-of-the-decade/ · Interfax on Kyrgyzstan nuclear referendum proposal: https://www.interfax.ru/world/1081927 · Rosatom, RITM-200N memorandum with Kyrgyzstan: https://rosatom-energy.ru/media/rosatom-news/rosatom-i-kirgiziya-dogovorilis-o-sotrudnichestve-v-sooruzhenii-atomnoy-stantsii-maloy-moshchnosti/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

    38 min

  7. 31 MAR

    Kyrgyz political soap opera, Kazakhstan's media chill, and Central Asia's energy dilemma

    This week, we return to the political soap opera unfolding in Kyrgyzstan in the wake of the February removal of security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev. The pressure on Tashiyev’s family continues to mount. His brother, Shairbek, who surrendered his parliamentary mandate after a first police interrogation earlier in March, has now been called back in for a second round of questioning. His son, Tai-Muras, is facing a subtler social media campaign highlighting the $6 million profit made by his company between 2020 and 2025, a figure that raises pointed questions, given that President Sadyr Japarov was publicly praising Tai-Muras’ business acumen as recently as 2024. Meanwhile, the former National Bank chairman Melis Turgunbayev has been drawn into the investigation into state oil and gas company Kyrgyzneftegaz, briefly detained and now released, but still facing possible prosecution. But the story has another side: the acquittal of the so-called Kempir-Abad defendants, activists and politicians arrested in 2022 for opposing a controversial border deal with Uzbekistan, has now been upheld on appeal. And the journalist Makhabat Tazhibek kyzy of investigative outlet Temirov Live has been released from pre-trial detention. Thaw or managed transition? We discuss. We then turn to Kazakhstan, where popular YouTube channel Airan, with its nearly 1.2 million subscribers, has abruptly shut down. The explanation given was carefully, conspicuously vague. We examine what its closure says about the structural impossibility of independent media in Kazakhstan, against a backdrop of several recent journalist arrests. For our interview this week, we spoke with Demir Kabylbayev, senior analyst and energy sector lead at the Eurasian Development Bank, and lead author of a new report on Central Asia’s power sector. We discussed the region’s acute energy challenge: surging demand, ageing Soviet-era infrastructure, and the difficult path toward renewables, and why a pragmatic middle path may be the only realistic option. Link Power Sector of Central Asia: Modernization and Energy Transition - https://eabr.org/en/analytics/special-reports/power-sector-of-central-asia-modernization-and-energy-transition/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

    41 min

  8. 24 MAR

    Silk Mirage: Joanna Lillis on Uzbekistan’s unfinished transition

    This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast departs from the usual format for a single in-depth conversation with journalist Joanna Lillis, whose new book Silk Mirage: Through the Looking Glass in Uzbekistan draws on more than two decades of reporting to examine the country’s evolution since independence. Lillis traces Uzbekistan’s trajectory from the repressive system built under Islam Karimov to the more open but still contradictory era of Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Rather than a conventional political history, the book is constructed through individual stories, with former political prisoners, exiles, activists, and artists, and allows the lived experience of the system to take precedence over official narratives. A central theme of the discussion is the question of historical reckoning. Lillis argues that Uzbekistan’s failure to confront episodes such as the Andijan massacre continues to shape both public life and private memory. Without a clear account of past abuses, she suggests, reforms risk resting on unstable foundations, with old practices, whether in the justice system or restrictions on speech, reappearing in new forms. The conversation also examines the limits of reform. While the eradication of state-sponsored forced labour in the cotton sector stands out as a genuine success, deeper structural issues in agriculture and governance remain unresolved. More broadly, Lillis points to a pattern of selective liberalisation: greater openness in some areas paired with persistent red lines in politics, media, and civic life. Attention turns to culture and society, where change is more dynamic. Uzbekistan today displays a complex mix of liberalising and conservative currents, from the rise of religious influencers to a still-cautious creative sector shaped by residual fear and self-censorship. At the same time, the state’s effort to promote a polished international image through culture and heritage sits uneasily alongside continued repression at home. Across the discussion runs a consistent argument: that Uzbekistan’s future development, economic as much as political, depends not only on reform, but on a more honest engagement with its past. Links Silk Mirage: Through the Looking Glass in Uzbekistan - https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/silk-mirage-9781350292468/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

    40 min
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About

havli.substack.com

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  • Creator
    Peter Leonard
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    50
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Peter Leonard
  • Show Website
    CAPS Unlock Podcast

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