Doom Debates!

Liron Shapira

It's time to talk about the end of the world. With your host, Liron Shapira. lironshapira.substack.com

  1. -12 H

    Emad Mostaque Has A 50% P(Doom) & A Plan To Lower It

    Emad Mostaque helped kick off the modern AI revolution as the head of Stability AI, the company behind Stable Diffusion. Unlike most AI CEOs, he doesn't sugarcoat the risks of AGI development. He explains his 50% P(Doom), why we have less than 1,000 days to get our act together, and how his new startup, Intelligent Internet, aims to be a countervailing force against doom of all kinds. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:39 — Introducing Emad Mostaque 00:02:08 — How Emad Got Involved in AI Development 00:05:46 — The 60-Second Pitch for Intelligent Internet 00:09:29 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™ 00:13:32 — Why ASI Doesn’t Need Massive Compute 00:15:56 — AGI Timelines: Cognitive Labor Going to Zero 00:17:29 — Is There a Ceiling Above Human Intelligence? 00:41:22 — Corporations as Slow, Dumb AIs 00:50:19 — Emad’s Mainline Doom Scenario 00:55:28 — Jailbreaks and “Mecha-Hitler” Latent Spaces 00:59:56 — The Last Economy: How to Navigate Economic Doom 01:08:57 — The Coming Unemployment Spike 01:15:13 — Why Isn’t Google Stock Mooning? 01:25:05 — Intelligent Internet as a Solution: Bitcoin for the Intelligence Age 01:33:13 — Can an Aligned Network Stop a Rogue ASI? 01:36:20 — Is the Pause AI Proposal Too Late? 01:40:50 — Are We Facing Russian Roulette Odds with AI? 01:42:29 — Wrap-Up Links Emad Mostaque, The Last Economy (Amazon) — https://www.amazon.com/Last-Economy-Guide-Intelligent-Economics/dp/103693411X Intelligent Internet (ii.inc) —https://ii.inc Emad Mostaque, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emad_Mostaque Emad Mostaque on X — https://x.com/EMostaquePause Giant AI Experiments open letter (Future of Life Institute) — https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/ Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    1 h 43 min

  2. -4 J

    Did Eliezer Yudkowsky Really Call for VIOLENCE? — Debate with John Alioto

    My guest, John Alioto, is an independent AI engineer with a computer science degree from UC Berkeley and 25 years building real-world AI systems at companies like Microsoft and Google. In the wake of an attack on Sam Altman’s property, John Alioto came on the show to argue that Yudkowsky’s words are violent rhetoric that helped create this moment. Since I completely disagree with that characterization, we had a lot of fuel for a passionate debate. For the record, here’s my position on why AI doomers are NOT “calling for violence”: Are we acting like we actually think there’s an urgent extinction risk? Yes. Are we calling for lawless violence? Absolutely not. At least not me, or the leaders of the movement, or anyone I’ve ever personally interacted with. Are we calling for violence as a last resort if a government policy has been established and then egregiously violated? Yes… but that’s just standard for any governance proposal! A proposal for a strictly enforced treaty isn’t a call for violence — it’s a call for doing everything we can to make sure no one breaks the treaty, with zero violence, unless rogue actors decide to break the treaty and bring the consequences on themselves. Thanks to John for having an extremely respectful and good-faith debate on this heated subject. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:37 — Introducing John Alioto 00:03:02 — Setting the Stage: Recent Acts of Violence & AI Discourse 00:05:53 — Eliezer Yudkowsky's 2023 TIME Article 00:11:16 — John's Two-Part Argument 00:14:37 — Conditional on High P(Doom), Is Eliezer's Policy Bad? 00:17:46 — Be Like Carl Sagan — Win in the Arena of Ideas 00:21:12 — No Carve-Outs for Non-Signatories 00:26:15 — Hypothetical: What If the UN Voted for a Treaty? 00:30:46 — What's the Correct Interpretation of Eliezer's TIME Article? 00:32:42 — Liron's Interpretation: Same Structure as Any International Law Proposal 00:42:23 — What Should Eliezer Have Written? "Airstrikes" vs "Strong Deterrent" 00:49:57 — How John Would Rewrite the TIME Piece 00:50:54 — Carve-Outs: Allies, Civilians, Consequences 00:52:52 — Debate Wrap-Up 00:56:27 — Last Q: Does High P(Doom) Imply Violence? 00:59:40 — Closing Thoughts Links John P. Alioto on X (Twitter) — https://x.com/jpalioto Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Pausing AI Developments Isn’t Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down” (Time Magazine, March 2023) — https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/ Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    1 h 2 min

  3. -5 J

    Are AI Doomers “Calling for Violence”? Debate with Steven Balik

    Are AI safety advocates like Eliezer Yudkowsky at fault for the recent attacks on Sam Altman because they are “calling for violence”? I invited Steven Balik to join me on this emergency episode to hash it out. Steven is an activist short seller and data engineering professional whose Substack is popular among Silicon Valley VCs and hedge funds. Links Steven Balik on X (Twitter) — https://x.com/laurenbalik Steven Balik, “The Talmudic Stock Bubble, AI Psychosis, & Esoterrorism” (Substack, October 2025) — https://laurenbaliksalmanacandrevue.substack.com/p/the-talmudic-stock-bubble-ai-psychosis Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Pausing AI Developments Isn’t Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down” (Time, March 2023) — https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/ Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:52 — Introducing Steven Balik 00:01:24 — Setting the Stage: Molotov Cocktail Incident 00:03:31 — Steven’s Opening Position 00:06:10 — Is Eliezer Yudkowsky “Calling for Violence”? 00:07:25 — Steven on AI, Yudkowsky, the Zizians & Escalating Rhetoric 00:12:16 — Focusing on the Time Article 00:18:51 — Who’s Responsible for the Violence? 00:25:33 — Debating the Key Quote in Yudkowsky’s Time Article 00:31:07 — Liron Passes the Ideological Turing Test 00:45:42 — Liron & Steven Find Common Ground 00:46:57 — Why Does Steven Call Eliezer Yudkowsky an “Esoterrorist”? 00:48:51 — Wrapping Up: Deescalating the Situation Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    52 min

  4. 14 AVR.

    Tristan Harris and Ted Tremper are WAKING UP Humanity to AI Extinction!

    The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist could become the most important movie of our generation. It’s a new film from the producers of the Oscar-winning Everything Everywhere All at Once. Tristan Harris is a subject in the film who is well-known for his role in Netflix's The Social Dilemma. He is the co-founder of the Center for Humane Technology. Ted Tremper is a producer on the film who is the interim Executive Director of the Creators' Coalition on AI. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:01:20 — Introducing Tristan Harris and Ted Tremper 00:04:31 — The Genesis of The AI Doc 00:12:48 — Tristan’s Journey From Social Media to AI 00:14:30 — Updating From AI Skeptic to AI Risk Aware 00:20:31 — How They Convinced the AI CEOs to Agree to be Interviewed 00:28:58 — Ted’s Journalism Advice, Working on Borat Subsequent Moviefilm 00:30:37 — Tristan, What’s Your P(Doom)™? 00:34:30 — The Resource Curse: What AI Revenue Does to a Society 00:44:10 — Ted, What’s Your P(Doom)™? 00:46:34 — Reacting to Demis Hassabis Statement that AGI Development Is Inevitable 00:49:52 — Liron Sharpens the Criticism Towards AGI Builders 00:55:35 — AGI Developers Claim to Want International Cooperation, But Have They Really Tried? 01:04:30 — What Should Be the Single Takeaway for Concerned Viewers? 01:11:40 — Building a Coalition Against Superintelligence Development: From Bernie to Bannon 01:19:52 — Take Action at TheAIDocGetInvolved.com 01:24:40 — Tristan’s Closing Message: We’ve Done This Before Links Watch The AI Doc — https://www.focusfeatures.com/the-ai-doc-or-how-i-became-an-apocaloptimist Get Involved with The AI Doc Community — https://theaidocgetinvolved.com/ Tristan Harris, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tristan_Harris Ted Tremper, IMDb — https://www.imdb.com/name/nm3998229/ Center for Humane Technology — https://www.humanetech.com/ “The Intelligence Curse” by Luke Drago and Rudolf Laine — https://intelligence-curse.ai/ Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    1 h 27 min

  5. 7 AVR.

    I Challenged DON’T LOOK UP’s Screenwriter to Look Up At AGI

    David Sirota helped create “Don’t Look Up” sometimes feels like we’re living inside his movie. Does he share my belief that the looming planetary threat is rogue AI? Sirota is an award-winning investigative journalist, bestselling author, and former speechwriter for Bernie Sanders. He was nominated for an Oscar for co-writing the story of Don’t Look Up. Find our more about David’s work at The Lever: https://www.levernews.com/ Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:01:20 — Introducing David Sirota 00:04:34 — Why David Fights Against Power and the Concentration of Power 00:13:46 — From NAFTA to AI: The Warnings We Ignored 00:22:05 — How Big Will the AI “Jobpocalypse” Be? 00:25:28 — Superintelligence & the Parallel to Don’t Look Up 00:28:37 — What’s Your P(Doom)™? 00:31:44 — The Speed of the AI Threat 00:36:26 — Society Is Losing a Collective Capacity to Focus 00:38:34 — Is Climate Change David’s Biggest Existential Concern? 00:45:01 — David Reacts to Bernie Sanders’ Data Center Moratorium Proposal 00:49:11 — Can We Build The “Off Button”? 00:52:08 — “Don’t Look Up” x AGI Mashup 00:54:35 — Why There’s Still Hope 00:58:14 — Living in “Don’t Look Up” 00:59:46 — Wrap-Up: Where to Follow Major AI News Links Watch Don't Look Up — https://www.netflix.com/gb/title/81252357 The Lever, investigative news outlet — https://www.levernews.com/ David Sirota on X — https://x.com/davidsirota David Sirota, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Sirota Master Plan podcast — https://the.levernews.com/master-plan/ David Sirota, “Hostile Takeover” on Amazon — https://www.amazon.com/Hostile-Takeover-Corruption-Conquered-Government/dp/0307237354 The Three-Body Problem (novel), Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Three-Body_Problem_(novel) WarGames (1983 film), Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WarGames Adam McKay, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_McKay Watch Don’t Look Up — https://www.netflix.com/title/81252357 AI 2027 scenario — https://ai-2027.com/ Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    1 h 2 min

  6. 2 AVR.

    I Went On Jubilee's Middle Ground To Warn About AI Extinction!

    The popular debate show, Middle Ground by Jubilee, invited me on to take the "anti-AI" side back in April 2024. This highlight reel of the episode shows my experience of the discussion. I'm a lifelong techno-optimist, and it's unnatural for me to represent an anti-tech position. It's just that our AI labs are admitting they're on the path to superintelligence they don't know how to control, which implies we're all about to die and the universe will be robbed of all value forever before our kids grow up. Other than that one little consideration, I'm normally pro-tech! Timestamps 00:00:00 — Why Liron is Worried about AI 00:02:13 — The Nuclear Analogy 00:02:43 — Human Evolution and Neuralink 00:03:14 — The AI Labs’ Own Warnings Links Full episode on YouTube —https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47fGrqzoFr8 Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    4 min

  7. 31 MARS

    Liron’s 700% Productivity Increase, Bernie & AOC’s Datacenter Ban, Are We In Full Takeoff? — Live Q&A

    Multiple live callers join this month's Q&A as we react to Bernie Sanders and AOC's data center moratorium, the sudden shutdown of SORA 2, and the record breaking "Stop the AI Race" protest. I explain why Claude Code has me claiming a 700% productivity boost, what that means for takeoff timelines and debate instrumental convergence. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:01:08 — Can AI Train on Its Own Data to Reach Superintelligence? 00:03:42 — Are We in the Takeoff? 700% Faster with Claude Code 00:04:27 — EJJ Joins: Is Instrumental Convergence Really That Dangerous? 00:16:44 — The Positive Feedback Loop Problem 00:20:09 — S-Risk, Consciousness, and Objective Morality 00:22:27 — Futarchy and Prediction Markets 00:24:31 — Low P(Doom) Arguments and Bayesian Updates 00:31:05 — Lee Cyrano Joins: Superintelligence Won’t Matter for Decades 01:02:45 — Lesaun Joins: Are There Adults in the Room? 01:17:39 — Connor Leahy: “There Are No Adults in the Room” 01:19:51 — Bernie Sanders Calls for a Data Center Moratorium 01:24:23 — Claude Code Anecdotes and Audience Q&A 01:35:49 — The Stop the AI Race Protest in San Francisco 01:41:38 — Known Unknowns and Risk Assessment 01:45:03 — From Waymo to Existential Risk 01:51:28 — Closing: The Road to One Million Subscribers Links Quintin Pope vs Liron Shapira debate on Doom Debates — https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/ai-alignment-is-solved-phd-researcher CAP theorem, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAP_theorem Google Cloud Spanner, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanner_(database) Newcomb’s problem, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_paradox Gödel’s incompleteness theorems, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6del%27s_incompleteness_theorems Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    1 h 56 min
  8. AI Alignment Is Solved?! PhD Researcher Quintin Pope vs Liron Shapira (2023 Twitter Debate)

    25 MARS

    AI Alignment Is Solved?! PhD Researcher Quintin Pope vs Liron Shapira (2023 Twitter Debate)

    Dr. Quintin Pope, PhD, is one of the few critics of AI doomerism who is truly fluent in the concepts and arguments. In Oct, 2023 he joined me for a debate in Twitter Spaces where he argued that AI alignment was basically already solved. His “inside view” on machine-learning forced me to update my position, but could he knock me off the doom train? Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:43 — Introductions 00:01:22 — Quintin's Opening Statement 00:02:32 — Liron's Opening Statement 00:05:10 — Has RLHF Solved the Alignment Problem? 00:07:52 — AI Capabilities Are Constrained by Training Data 00:10:52 — Defining ASI and Could RLHF Align a Superintelligence? 00:13:13 — Quintin Is More Optimistic Than OpenAI 00:14:16 — What Is ASI in Your Mind? 00:15:57 — AI in 5 Years (2028) & AI Coding Agents 00:19:05 — Continuous or Discontinuous Capability Gains? 00:19:39 — DEBATE: General Intelligence Algorithm in Humans 00:30:02 — The Only Coherent Explanation of Humans Going to the Moon 00:34:01 — Are We "Fully Cooked" as a General Optimizer? 00:35:53 — Common Mistake in Forecasting Superintelligence 00:42:22 — 'Neat' vs 'Scruffy': Will Interpretable Structure Emerge Inside Neural Nets? 00:48:57 — Does This Disagreement Actually Matter for P(Doom)? 00:54:33 — Thought Experiment: Could You Have Predicted a Species Would Go to the Moon? 00:57:26 — The Basin of Attraction for Superintelligence 00:59:35 — Does a Superintelligence Even Exist in Algorithm Space? 01:09:59 — Closing Statements 01:12:40 — Audience Q&A 01:19:35 — Wrap Up Links Original Twitter Spaces debate (Quintin Pope vs. Liron Shapira) — https://x.com/i/spaces/1YpJkwOzOqEJj/peek Quintin Pope on Twitter/X — https://twitter.com/QuintinPope5 Quintin Pope, Alignment Forum profile — https://www.alignmentforum.org/users/quintin-pope InstructGPT, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/InstructGPT AIXI, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIXI AlphaZero, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AlphaZero MuZero, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MuZero DeepMind AlphaZero and MuZero page — https://deepmind.google/research/alphazero-and-muzero/ Midjourney — https://www.midjourney.com/ DALL-E, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DALL-E OpenAI Superalignment announcement — https://openai.com/index/introducing-superalignment/ Shard Theory sequence on LessWrong — https://www.lesswrong.com/s/nyEFg3AuJpdAozmoX “Evolution Provides No Evidence for the Sharp Left Turn” — https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hvz9qjWyv8cLX9JJR/evolution-provides-no-evidence-for-the-sharp-left-turn “My Objections to ‘We’re All Gonna Die with Eliezer Yudkowsky’” — https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wAczufCpMdaamF9fy/my-objections-to-we-re-all-gonna-die-with-eliezer-yudkowsky “AI is Centralizing by Default; Let’s Not Make It Worse” — https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zd5inbT4kYKivincm/ai-is-centralizing-by-default-let-s-not-make-it-worse Singular Learning Theory, Alignment Forum sequence — https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/mqwA5FcL6SrHEQzox Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    1 h 20 min
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À propos

It's time to talk about the end of the world. With your host, Liron Shapira. lironshapira.substack.com

Informations

  • Création
    Liron Shapira
  • Années d’activité
    2024 - 2026
  • Épisodes
    152
  • Classification
    Contenu explicite
  • Copyright
    © Liron Shapira
  • Site web de l’émission
    Doom Debates!

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