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  1. 2 jul

    What would an Andy Burnham premiership mean for the UK economy and markets?

    Andy Burnham is set to become Britain’s Prime Minister on 20 July and promises a new style of governance - “Manchesterism”. Luke and Lizzy discuss what Manchesterism means in practice, whether devolution is a credible growth strategy, how a Burnham government might navigate financial markets, and how tight fiscal constraints could ultimately limit both its policy agenda and political fortunes.

  2. 18 jun

    Are recessions predictable? – with Tyler Goodspeed

    Many economists and investors try to predict the business cycle in order to time their investments into financial markets. In this episode, Paul and Luke speak to Tyler Goodspeed, author of “Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It”, who rejects much conventional wisdom on the business cycle, arguing instead that recessions are the result of external shocks that cannot be predicted. They discuss why humans are pre-disposed to see patterns in economic data, the usefulness or otherwise of business cycle timing indicators, and the likelihood of the current energy shock causing a recession.

  3. 3 jun

    Where do interest rates go if growth weakens but inflation increases?

    Most central banks started the year preparing to cut interest rates further. Then geopolitics intervened. In this episode Paul and Luke unpack how the Iran-driven energy shock has upended rate expectations, why different central banks are responding in different ways, and what that means for inflation and growth. We also tackle two key market questions: what will new Fed chair Kevin Warsh do with the balance sheet, and can equities stay resilient as inflation spikes and yields rise?

  4. 20 mei

    Space, the final frontier for the economy? - with Hannah Lee, JP Morgan

    Near earth orbit is increasingly a site of economic activity, and a domain of great power competition. Paul and Luke are joined by Hannah Lee, Thematic Investment Researcher at JP Morgan, to discuss how the collapse in launch costs has opened up a wide range of commercial use cases for space, the prospect of placing data centres, semi-conductor fabrication, and pharmaceutical development in orbit, and the way in which space has become a strategic military domain.

  5. 6 mei

    If UK PM Starmer goes, what changes, what doesn’t, and what markets will price?

    The UK local and devolved regional elections are shaping up to be rough for the incumbent Labour party. Speculation about political leadership change is likely to increase as a result. If there is a change of UK Prime Minister (and Chancellor), who could it be, what would be the process, and most importantly for Macro Bytes, what are the economic and market implications? Paul and Lizzy lay out the runners-and-riders, and the possible policy changes across tax-and-spend, regulation, Europe, and defence policy.

  6. 22 apr

    Who is winning the US-China AI race?

    The release of China’s Deepseek R1 model last year, which rivalled many US large language models but was trained at a fraction of the cost, seemed to kick-off a new realm of competition between the US and China. Luke is joined by Robert Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Economist at Aberdeen, to discuss the nature of the AI race between the US and China, who is currently winning, whether government strategies around things like export controls and energy policy can help determine who the winner might ultimately be, and whether even framing the contest as a “race” with a single “winner” is the right way to think about how the technology and policy is likely to evolve.

  7. 2 apr

    How are investors responding to the Iran conflict? – with Victoria Scholar from interactive investor

    The Iran war is now in its 5th week, longer than many in the market seem to have been expecting, and it continues to be a source of significant asset price volatility. Paul and Luke are joined by Victoria Scholar, Head of Investment at interactive investor, to consider the market and investor reaction to the conflict. They discuss the significance of the oil price as both barometer and transmission mechanism of the conflict, the performance of EM vs DM markets, investor interest in gold, where diversification can be found in a geopolitical crisis, and whether retail investors can be better contrarians at market turning points.

  8. 5 mrt

    Conflict in Iran: how long will it last, and what will be the economic impact?

    The war in Iran and the wider Middle East has dealt a significant blow to asset prices. Paul, Luke and Lizzy look at the US and Israel’s war aims and examine why Iran’s response has been larger than expected. They go on to consider what asset prices appear to be pricing in about the likely outcome of the conflict, and what this could mean for growth, inflation and interest rates. They also reflect on how US policy fits within Trump’s broader foreign policy agenda.

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    2021 - 2026
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