The Lumber Word

Ashley Boeckholt
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Three Lumber Industry veterans talk about the weekly, monthly and yearly trends. What is going on with inventory in the field, production and distribution. We help educate everyone in the distribution chain with information most like to not talk about. Highlighted items that are overvalued and undervalued are also discussed. Guests in the industry will occasionally drop in to help us dial in some lumber details. Most important is we have fun talking lumber and our listeners love it.

  1. 1 DAY AGO

    EP 164: The K-Shaped Economy—Who’s Pulling the Wagon?

    Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles are joined by Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors, a bestselling author, and one of the most sought-after voices in macroeconomics today. When markets get noisy, Brian’s the guy cutting through it with data and conviction. The crew dives into the macro forces shaping lumber—from government spending and the “K-shaped” economy to housing completions, freight spikes, and regional demand shifts.  They break down why affordability is still broken, what’s driving trucking chaos, and whether strong Southern demand can carry the market forward. Plus—how AI, migration trends, and policy decisions could reshape housing, labor, and the broader economy. If you want to understand where lumber demand is heading (and why), this one delivers. Timeline 00:00 – Brian Wesbury joins + macro setup  03:30 – Taxes, migration & policy shifts  08:30 – Government spending vs affordability  14:00 – Housing completions & demand outlook  16:00 – Freight spikes & supply chain issues  18:30 – Southern vs Northern demand  24:00 – The “K-shaped” economy explained  30:00 – Growth, incentives & middle class  41:00 – AI, jobs & future risks  Guest Brian S. Wesbury Chief Economist / First Trust www.ftportfolios.com       Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

    58 min

  2. 3 APR

    EP 163: Paywalls, Pine Rips, and Freight Freakouts

    Holy Week edition with a major announcement—The Lumber Word is going subscription for people wanting to listen first! The crew breaks down what that means, why timing matters in a 24–48-hour data market, and then dives headfirst into one of the wildest setups we’ve seen: freight chaos, pine vs. spruce divergence, and a market that might still have legs… or be closer to the edge than you think. Timestamps: 0:00 – Holy Week kickoff + big shift to subscriber early access (no ads, faster intel) 4:00 – Russ Taylor debate, AD/CVD reality, and why nothing’s changing soon 9:00 – Freight explosion: rail surcharges + trucking volatility crushing margins 13:00 – Back-to-back trading vs. real value in a chaotic logistics market 14:00 – Pine vs. Spruce: why SYP ripped and SPF lagged hard 20:00 – Contracts vs. spot market—are they distorting price discovery? 29:00 – Freight as the real driver of the pine rally (canary in the coal mine) 33:00 – Bull market or head fake? Supply cuts vs. pipeline restock debate 35:00 – “Seller arrogance” = warning sign of a potential top 40:00 – Buyers scrambling to rebuild inventory + hot items emerging fast Takeaway: Freight is the hidden force, Pine led the charge, and now the market’s walking a tightrope between a continued grind higher… or the early signs of a summer reset.   Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

    54 min

  3. 28 MAR

    EP 162: Is Lumber Having Its WTF Moment?

    Mike Logelin (Gulf Coast Shelter) is back and breaking down what it really looks like to build a lumber business from the ground up—team building, growing pains, and why patience matters in today’s market. Then the crew dives headfirst into one of the most dynamic setups we’ve seen in a while: tightening supply, exploding low-grade pricing, and a freight market that’s turning everything upside down. From Southern Yellow Pine ripping higher to spruce and hem-fir tightening fast, this episode connects the dots between species spreads, trucking chaos, and why the next “panic buy” moment might be closer than you think. If you want to understand what’s actually driving this market—and where the opportunity (and risk) is—this one delivers. Timestamps 0:00 – Intro + Mike Logan returns 1:00 – Building a trading team from scratch (startup realities) 5:00 – Hiring, training, and the next generation in lumber 7:45 – Market kickoff: everything moving higher 9:00 – Texas demand, low inventories, and species substitution 12:00 – Low-grade explosion (why #3 is driving the bus) 16:00 – Hem-fir + western market tightness 17:45 – Southern Yellow Pine surge + short positions 19:30 – Freight chaos: trucks disappearing, costs spiking 23:00 – Why logistics = real pricing power right now 27:00 – Regional markets tightening due to freight 29:00 – When does the “panic buying” moment hit? 30:30 – Global flows (Euro, Middle East disruption) 33:30 – Macro curveballs: rates, crypto, housing demand 36:30 – Inventory positioning: who’s exposed right now Guest Mike Logelin President-Gulf Coast Shelter mlogelin@gulfcoastshelter.com Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

    59 min

  4. 19 MAR

    EP 161: Miss It Today, Pay Up Tomorrow

    The lumber market just flipped. What looked slow turned into real buying, tightening supply, and rising prices—fast. This week, the crew breaks down why low-grade and studs are leading, freight is becoming a major constraint, and order files are pushing into April. Buyers who waited are now chasing, while supply cuts and steady demand raise a bigger question: are we already short of wood? If so, this move may just be getting started. Timeline 0:00 – Market flips from slow to active 2:30 – Low-grade & studs lead strength 7:00 – Prices up ~$100+ since Nov 10:00 – Order files into April 12:00 – Freight tightening supply 15:00 – Buyers now chasing 28:00 – Supply vs demand imbalance 35:00 – Early innings of the move Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

    1hr 2min

  5. 12 MAR

    EP 160: Freight Shock and the Sneaky Lumber Rally

    Freight is exploding, mills are pulling back, and lumber prices are quietly starting to run. The lumber market flipped fast this week. Freight costs surged, Canadian mills stepped back from truck shipments, and prices began climbing across species. Ashley, Matt, Gregg, Charles, and Sig break down tightening supply, Southern Yellow Pine strength, and whether this is the start of a spring lumber run or just another head fake in the cycle. Spotify Timeline (Chapters) 00:00 – Intro & market setup 03:00 – Freight costs jump 07:00 – Pine vs spruce pricing 12:00 – Supply vs willingness to pay 18:00 – Demand drivers (R&R and housing) 26:00 – Second‑half market outlook 31:00 – Buyer strategy in this market 38:00 – Futures & trade ideas 41:00 – OSB and other materials Guest Sig Thoma Sig@XMICO.com   Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

    52 min

  6. 6 MAR

    EP 159: The Fog of War

    The lumber market is deep in the **fog of war**. Freight is tightening, trucking rates are jumping, and species spreads are shifting fast. In Episode #159, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down why flatbed capacity is suddenly scarce, how Southern Yellow Pine is catching a bid while eastern spruce softens, and what heavy Doug Fir production in the West could mean for the market. The crew also tackles the big question: **where is the missing demand?** Canadian shipments are down, production is lower across North America, yet prices haven’t fully reacted. Are buyers simply running leaner inventories and buying lumber just‑in‑time? If you buy, sell, trade, or build with lumber, this episode helps you navigate freight disruptions, changing buying habits, and the real supply‑and‑demand signals shaping the 2026 lumber market. Chapters 0:00 – The Fog of War in the lumber market 1:00 – Trucking shortages and rising freight costs 6:30 – Why freight tightens every spring 12:30 – Futures vs. cash lumber pricing 16:00 – Doug Fir, spruce, and pine market dynamics 20:00 – Southern Yellow Pine strength 24:00 – Just‑in‑time lumber buying 27:00 – Lumber price outlook 30:00 – Mortgage rates and housing demand 33:00 – Western supply shifts 36:30 – Final market takeaways     Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

    47 min

  7. 26 FEB

    EP 158: Equilibrium or Explosion?

    Kip Fotheringham joins the crew to break down a lumber market that feels coiled. Canadian shipments are down 30% year-over-year. Inventory on the ground is near multi-year lows. Futures are trading at a discount to cash. And dealers are running lean. So are we stuck in a trading range… or one buying shift away from a $100 move? In this episode, the guys debate: Why majors aren’t aggressively EFP’ing Government “support” vs. subsidy risk in Canada Southern Pine regional price spreads What happens if retailers add just 2–3 weeks of inventory Why breakeven doesn’t matter — return on capital does Tariff noise vs. actual lumber exemption rules Is the low already in? Or are we just chopping sideways?   Strap in. Timestamps 00:00 – Welcome + Kip joins 02:00 – Cash vs. futures disconnect 04:00 – 30% drop in Canadian shipments 10:00 – Southern Pine update 18:30 – Lean inventories & catalyst discussion 24:00 – Trading range debate 36:00 – Why mills keep running 42:00 – Tariff clarification   Guest:  Kip Foteringham Independent Trader and Market Analyst  kipf@telus.net   Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

    47 min

  8. 21 FEB

    EP 157: Euro Pressure, Pine Pivots & A Flattening Curve

    This week, we welcome Thomas Mende back to break down what’s really happening in the lumber market. Eastern Spruce is showing selective discounts (especially 16’s), Southern Pine had midweek block buying, and Western low-grade is tight while higher grades sit. Are we finally near equilibrium? Thomas walks through European production declines, rising log costs, and why tariffs alone don’t drive shipments — economics do. Canadian shipments are down sharply year over year, and when you combine that with slightly softer housing starts, supply and demand may be closer than most think. We also dig into the flattening futures curve, what that means for hedgers, whether Southern Pine mills are actually making money, and why a flat market might cause the most pain. If you trade lumber, build with it, or hedge it — this one matters. Timestamps 00:00 – Market pulse: Spruce, Pine & truck spreads 06:30 – Southern Pine block buying & 16’ pricing 10:00 – Europe shipments, tariffs & rising log costs 17:30 – Western market: low-grade squeeze 21:30 – Housing starts & real wood usage math 27:00 – Canadian shipment declines 31:00 – Futures flattening: what it means 35:30 – Mill closures & Southern Pine profitability 40:00 – Softwood Lumber Board & CLT demand growth 45:00 – Tariff ruling update & market outlook     Advertiser: Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Product djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Guest: Thomas Mende Thomas.Mende@binderholz.com https://www.binderholz.com/   Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

    46 min
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About

Three Lumber Industry veterans talk about the weekly, monthly and yearly trends. What is going on with inventory in the field, production and distribution. We help educate everyone in the distribution chain with information most like to not talk about. Highlighted items that are overvalued and undervalued are also discussed. Guests in the industry will occasionally drop in to help us dial in some lumber details. Most important is we have fun talking lumber and our listeners love it.

Information

  • Creator
    Ashley Boeckholt
  • Years Active
    2023 - 2026
  • Episodes
    100
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Ashley Boeckholt
  • Show Website
    The Lumber Word

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