Hold Your Fire‪!‬ International Crisis Group

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s China and Philippines experts Amanda Hsiao and Georgi Engelbrecht to talk about friction between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. They discuss recent incidents involving Chinese coast guard vessels ramming and firing water cannons at Philippine supply boats near the contested Second Thomas Shoal and the risk of further escalation. They unpack the competing claims in the South China Sea and the strategic value of the maritime features for China and the Philippines. They talk about Manila’s policy towards China and its deepening defence ties to the U.S. under current President Ferdinand Marcos. They also discuss U.S. involvement in the South China Sea and Asia more broadly, China’s reaction to Washington reinforcing its Asian alliances and how to manage risks of incidents between the Chinese and U.S. militaries in the region.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our South China Sea page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Alan Boswell, Shewit Woldemichael, Rami Dajani and Rob Blecher about the latest from Sudan’s western Darfur region and from Gaza. Richard first talks to Alan and Shewit about the worsening violence in North Darfur. As the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces encircle the city of al-Fashar, the last Darfuri capital held by the Sudanese army, and both sides build up forces, they talk about the implications of an all-out battle for the city. They also discuss the legacy of the 2020 Juba peace agreement and why some Darfuri former rebels have now chosen to fight alongside the Sudanese army against the RSF. Richard then talks to Rami and Rob about Israel’s incursion this past week into Gaza’s southernmost city, Rafah. They discuss prospects for talks over a ceasefire-hostage release deal in Cairo, the views of both Hamas and the Israeli government on what such a deal should entail and Israeli politics around the Rafah offensive. They also talk about the difficulties of aid delivery and famine risks in both Sudan and Gaza. 
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our statement Sudan: A Year of War and our report Stopping Famine in Gaza.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s North Africa director Riccardo Fabiani, U.S. director Michael Hanna and Dareen Khalifa, Crisis Group’s senior dialogue adviser, to talk about the Gaza war’s impact on Egypt. They assess the latest round of ceasefire talks in Cairo and Egypt’s role as a mediator. They talk about Cairo’s fear, since 7 October, of Palestinians’ forced displacement from Gaza into Egypt’s Sinai region and the implications of an Israeli ground operation in Rafah. They look at how the war in Gaza has exacerbated Egypt’s economic woes, particularly given the Egyptian military’s outsized economic footprint and the country’s closed politics. They assess the significance of protests in solidarity with Palestinians and whether those might channel discontent at the government of President Abdul Fatah al-Sisi. They also explore Egypt’s position on Gaza’s future and interim governance arrangements. 
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Egypt and Israel-Palestine pages.

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This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Venezuela expert Phil Gunson to discuss Venezuelan presidential elections, whether they offer a chance for the country to escape its protracted political crisis and Venezuela’s claim to Essequibo, an oil-rich region of neighbouring Guyana. They talk about Edmundo Gonzalez, an outsider whom the opposition appears to have rallied behind as its candidate to take on President Nicolas Maduro. They look back to the October 2023 Barbados agreement between the government and opposition that set out conditions for the vote, the opposition primary just afterwards, and the government’s efforts since to curb the opposition’s prospects. They explore how the country has been faring, as economic collapse triggers a humanitarian crisis and a wave of migration. They also talk about Venezuela’s dispute with neighbouring Guyana over Essequibo and what role other neighbours, Brazil and Colombia, could play in resolving the crisis. Finally, they assess whether a more competitive vote could offer a path to some form of transition or cohabitation between the government and opposition. 
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest commentary Seeking the Best from a Skewed Poll: Hard Choices for Venezuela.


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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the U.S. elections from Crisis Group's Ripple Effect podcast.
In this episode of Ripple Effect, Michael and Steve talk with Rachel Kleinfeld, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about the state of U.S. democracy and the risk of political violence as the U.S. heads toward the November elections. They break down how we should understand polarisation in U.S. society. They assess the potential risk factors that could contribute to political violence in the run-up and aftermath of the November elections and how they compare to the 2020 elections. They discuss how Washington is navigating the difficult task of promoting democracy abroad while facing its own challenges to its democratic institutions. They also talk about what politicians on both sides of the aisle can do to mitigate the risk of political violence in the near term.
For more, check out Rachel’s piece Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says. You can read more of Crisis Group’s in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode on our United States program page. 

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This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein, Michael Hanna, Lahib Higel and Robert Blecher to discuss the exchange of fire between Iran and Israel, risks of a wider regional war and what the escalation means for the war in Gaza. Richard first speaks with Ali, Mairav and Michael about Iran’s calculations in launching an attack on 13 April that saw hundreds of missiles and drones target Israeli military infrastructure, debates in Israel on how to respond and views within both countries’ societies. They also talk about U.S. efforts to stop regional tensions spiralling out of control. Richard then talks with Lahib and Rob about the latest developments in Gaza, particularly warnings of famine and prospects for a ceasefire. 
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest statement The Israel-Iran Crisis: A Chance to Step Back from the Brink, our report Stopping Famine in Gaza and our Middle East & North Africa page.

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