Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
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Top Traders Unplugged Podcast

Explore the captivating world of investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and his incredible co-hosts. Each week, we delve into engaging conversations with renowned investors, top economists, expert traders, and visionary thought leaders. Our discussions cover Trend Following, Global Macro, Geo-Politics, Commodities, Quant Investing, Crypto, Volatility, and much more. Unlock valuable insights from seasoned professionals, celebrating their triumphs and learning from their obstacles. Tune in every week to stay informed and inspired in the dynamic world of trend following, global macro and investing. For the latest episodes and blog posts, visit https://toptradersunplugged.com

  1. GM70: The State of the Commodity Super Cycle ft. Adam Rozencwajg

    1 DAY AGO

    GM70: The State of the Commodity Super Cycle ft. Adam Rozencwajg

    This week you are in for a real treat, as Adam Rozencwajg rejoins Cem Karsan and me for a deep dive into the latest developments in the Commodity markets. It's been 15 months since Adam last appeared on the show, and he's back to share his updated perspectives on the highly anticipated next Commodity Super Cycle. Adam even unveils a fascinating and little-known fact about what often coincides with the start of a Super Cycle. We also take a closer look at key markets like Gold, Copper, and the entire Energy Complex—topics at the heart of debates surrounding the US Dollar and the Green Transition. Packed with fresh insights and thought-provoking discussions, we hope you will enjoy this conversation. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Adam on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:14 - Catching up 05:00 - What has happened since we last spoke? 12:58 - The state of the metal sector 22:06 - Thoughts on positioning in commodity trading 28:41 - Getting the timing right 42:51 - It's all about volatility 44:38 - Playing the long game 47:46 - Are investors positioning wrong? 52:40 - A carry trade bubble 54:29 - Why are many investors bullish on copper? 01:01:12 - Why are copper prices going down? 01:05:13 - Demographics - a bizarre kind of beast 01:08:40 - An...

    1h 19m
  2. SI313: The Paradox of High-Volatility Alternatives ft. Alan Dunne

    5 DAYS AGO

    SI313: The Paradox of High-Volatility Alternatives ft. Alan Dunne

    In this episode, Alan Dunne and I explore Mario Draghi's latest vision for Europe and discuss an insightful interview with Kenneth Rogoff, titled "We Will See More Spikes in Inflation," which covers key macroeconomic issues. We also explore the recent Goldman Sachs reports, highlighted by the Financial Times, showing significant outflows from multi-strategy funds. Alan shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and why he believes we may witness more “flash crashes and extreme market moves” in the near future. Finally, we dig into two articles by Cliff Asness—"The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and "In Praise of High-Volatility Alternatives"—which challenge traditional thinking on market efficiency and make a compelling case for considering higher volatility versions of strategies like Trend Following over their low-volatility cousins. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:42 - What has caught our attention recently? 05:04 - Draghi's vision for Europe 08:09 - Keneth Rogoff's outlook for inflation 14:02 - Clients withdrawing money from multi-strat funds 19:58 - The big macro picture 27:33 - Is monetary policy still loose? 29:11 - Industry performance update (Finally!) 34:11 - The carry unwind 41:20 - Are people underestimating trend following? 44:51 - Are markets becoming less efficient? 48:30 - Why higher volatility funds may be good for your portfolio 56:52

    1h 5m
  3. IL30: How To Evaluate True Macro Risk? ft. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak

    11 SEPT

    IL30: How To Evaluate True Macro Risk? ft. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak

    Our guest on this episode is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of a new book: Shocks, Crises and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk. He explains why it’s wrong to put focus on extreme “doom mongering” predictions - which often turn out to be false alarms. We discuss his intuitive framework for evaluating economic predictions and use it to evaluate the risk of inflation and debt in the coming years. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Philipp on LinkedIn and read his book. Episode TimeStamps: 02:07 - Introduction to Philipp Carlsson 03:08 - What motivated Carlsson to write his book? 05:13 - A framework for assessing macro risk 09:00 - How do we react to doomsayings? 11:18 - Covid19 - the perfect example of a false alarm 15:15 - The new area of tightness 18:27 - It is all about labour cost 23:46 - The deflationary power of technology 26:46 - The outlook of the labour market 32:22 - Why inflation expectations will stay achored in a world of...

    59 min
  4. SI312: Should You Just Buy a CTA Index? ft. Rob Carver

    7 SEPT

    SI312: Should You Just Buy a CTA Index? ft. Rob Carver

    Rob Carver is back this week to discuss the importance of being able to detach yourself from the markets and taking “real” breaks from time to time and we also hear from Rob what it is like to let his systematic trading system run by itself whilst he enjoys a long summer holiday. We also discuss the underlying theory of macro momentum and how you can apply it to your own system, how he targets volatility in his portfolio and why Rob does not like using stop-losses to exit trades. We also touch on whether it’s a good idea for Trump to create a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, how ETFs really work and what they can bring to your portfolio, and whether or not buying one of the new CTA replication products is really the same as buying the underlying CTA index based on a recent paper from Transtrend. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:18 - What has caught our attention recently? 02:59 - How it feels to let your system run without you during holidays? 10:45 - Industry performance update 14:30 - Q1, Luis: What are your thoughts on Macro Momentum for retail traders? 21:00 - Q2, Roman: How to best target portfolio volatility 24:24 - Q3, Joshua: Which risk manament approach is best ATRs vs actual % of capital 31:22 - Would a Bitcoin strategic reserve be a good idea? 39:05 - A deep dive into ETFs 48:52 - An example of a worst case scenario ETF 53:13 - Can't we just buy a CTA index? 59:29 -...

    1h 14m
  5. GM69: The Global Economy from a Liquidity Perspective ft. Michael Howell

    4 SEPT

    GM69: The Global Economy from a Liquidity Perspective ft. Michael Howell

    Michael Howell, Managing Director of Crossborder Capital and Author of the Capital Wars Substack, returns in this episode to speak with Alan Dunne about the liquidity cycle’s influence on global markets. Michael outlines how he sees rising liquidity growth providing a favourable backdrop for risky assets and that the conventional narrative that the Fed has been tightening liquidity via quantitative tightening is misplaced. They discuss how the requirement to refinance $70 trillion in debt every year, and the prospect of double digit growth in debt, will inevitably lead to monetary inflation with profound implications for assets like gold and equities. In contrast, although tactical duration issuance by the US Treasury has supported US Treasuries the longer term outlook is less favourable. The conversation also touches on global FX markets, the recent unwinding of the JPY carry trade, and Michael’s perspective on a possible tacit agreement to weaken the US dollar, which could have far-reaching consequences for liquidity and asset markets. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Michael on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:12 - Introduction to Michael Howell 03:15 - Howell's framework for looking at markets 06:32 - How Asian central banks impact U.S equities 09:17 - Do different types of liquidity have different effects? 12:17 - The last 15 years from a liquidity...

    1h 3m
  6. SI311: BREAKING: New CTA Index being revealed ft. Andrew Beer

    1 SEPT

    SI311: BREAKING: New CTA Index being revealed ft. Andrew Beer

    As August comes to an end, we discuss this month of extremes for the trend-following community, marked by significant dispersion in performance and unusual price activity across multiple asset classes as well as the economy in general. We address the strengths and limitations of replication strategies and Andrew shares insights into how he thinks about appropriate correlations levels between the benchmark and the replication strategy. We discuss the challenges of the due diligence process in replication strategies including team size, why you should start allocating to managed futures and finally Andrew reveals an exciting world premiere that he and his team has been part of. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:49 - What has been on our radar recently? 04:17 - Industry performance update 08:07 - Just another August? 12:35 - Q1, Martin: How to reduce drawdowns in the managed futures ETF space? 14:54 - Has replication become obsolete? 25:14 - Andrew's guidelines for correlation 31:56 - Staying in sync 35:47 - How to deal with the simplicity of replication strategies 43:42 - A world premiere! 51:05 - An index madness 53:05 - Beware of the shiny new things 56:02 - How the new index works Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

    1h 1m
  7. GM68: Chief Strategist: “Most Scenerios Point to Recession” ft. Peter Berezin

    28 AUG

    GM68: Chief Strategist: “Most Scenerios Point to Recession” ft. Peter Berezin

    Peter Berezin Chief Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research returns in this episode to discuss with Alan Dunne why he believes the US economy will soon enter recession and the S&P 500 will fall as low as 3750. Peter highlights the leading indicators in the housing market, labour market and in manufacturing that suggest to him that the economy is on a weakening trend and why he expects the unemployment rate to rise from here. They discuss current equity valuations, the Mag 7 and why investors may be overly optimistic on AI - Peter believes his base case of a fall in the S&P 500 to 3750 might be optimistic given the elevated level of profit margins. They also delve into what a Fed easing cycle will look like in the next downturn, Peter’s call for 3% 10 year yields in the US and the implications for fixed income, the US dollar and commodities. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Peter on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:19 - What has changed since our last conversation? 07:29 - Signs of weakness? 09:31 - The key indicators of weakness 12:15 - Are we actually becoming more wealthy? 15:26 - Assessing the savings rate 17:02 - Berezin's model for analyzing the economy 20:04 - Is the lag kicking in now? 22:00 - Challenges in the banking system 24:37 - Are we seeing a tail wind from fiscal...

    1h 2m
  8. SI310: The Illusion of Backtests and True Drivers of Price ft. Richard Brennan

    24 AUG

    SI310: The Illusion of Backtests and True Drivers of Price ft. Richard Brennan

    Together with Richard Brennan we address the high level of volatility we have experienced this month and what airplane turbulence can teach us about periods of volatility. We also discuss why backtesting can’t predict future performance and what can be done to achieve achieve more realistic expectations of future risk and returns. We then dive into how investor behaviour drives price movement and how trend followers play a role in this, and why it may still make sense to include highly correlated assets in your trend following portfolio and more. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:01 - What has been on our radar recently? 04:43 - What can trend followers learn from airplane turbulence? 11:48 - Industry performance update 18:24 - The limitations and pitfalls of relying solely on backtesting 33:42 - Advice for using in- and out-of-sample data 36:31 - How collective trader behaviour influences price movement 48:03 - How cocoa is the perfect example of investor behaviour and price movement 52:47 - Why highly correlated assets may still be beneficial to your portfolio Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the...

    1h 3m
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Hosts & Guests

About

Explore the captivating world of investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and his incredible co-hosts. Each week, we delve into engaging conversations with renowned investors, top economists, expert traders, and visionary thought leaders. Our discussions cover Trend Following, Global Macro, Geo-Politics, Commodities, Quant Investing, Crypto, Volatility, and much more. Unlock valuable insights from seasoned professionals, celebrating their triumphs and learning from their obstacles. Tune in every week to stay informed and inspired in the dynamic world of trend following, global macro and investing. For the latest episodes and blog posts, visit https://toptradersunplugged.com

Information

  • Creator
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
  • Years Active
    2014 - 2024
  • Episodes
    756
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2024 CMC AG - This content does not constitute financial advice and is for educational purposes only. The content can not be used for commercial use without written permission from CMC AG.
  • Show Website
    Top Traders Unplugged

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