Excess Returns

Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. 20 HR AGO

    When the Data Stops Working | Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig on What Aggregate Economic Numbers Hide

    Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple Podcasts In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler sits down with Cameron Dawson of NewEdge Wealth and Dave Nadig of ETF.com for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro data, positioning, tokenization, AI productivity, and the narratives driving investor behavior. The discussion dives into consensus forecasts, the K-shaped economy, international equity performance, dollar positioning, AI capex, and whether the biggest market moves are driven by fundamentals or liquidity shifts. Along the way, they explore tokenization in financial markets, stablecoins, Fed balance sheet dynamics, and how AI is quietly reshaping productivity for small businesses and individuals. This episode is a deep dive into stock market trends, economic data distortions, asset allocation shifts, and the structural forces shaping the investing landscape in 2026. Main topics covered: • Why consensus forecasts are average and why that creates risks for investors• Cyclical reacceleration narrative versus liquidity-driven market rotation• The K-shaped economy and distortions in US jobs data• Healthcare hiring versus cyclical employment weakness• AI capex spending and who actually benefits• Energy, industrials, and staples outperformance versus tech concentration• International equities versus US stocks and valuation percentiles• US dollar positioning extremes and contrarian signals• Positioning versus narrative and where market surprises hide• Tokenization, decentralized finance, and DTCC proposals• Stablecoins, collateral efficiency, and capital reuse in markets• Fed balance sheet, leverage ratios, and financial system risk• AI productivity gains in small and mid-sized businesses• The future of work, automation, and economic dispersion Timestamps: 00:00 Cameron on cyclical reacceleration and market expectations03:00 Consensus forecasts and average return assumptions06:00 K-shaped economy and distorted jobs data10:00 AI capex and disconnect between perception and reality12:30 Liquidity shifts and market rotation beyond mega caps14:00 International equity valuations and performance gap16:50 Dollar positioning and contrarian signals18:20 Positioning versus narrative in stock performance20:00 Tokenization and ETF market plumbing22:00 Stablecoins and capital efficiency24:00 Atomic settlement versus traditional clearing27:00 Fed balance sheet and leverage ratio debate30:00 Recessions, market resets, and social impact39:00 Cultural distribution, media fragmentation, and market narratives47:00 AI productivity, small business impact, and economic implications For more episodes from the Excess Returns network, including macro investing, asset allocation, ETFs, and AI-driven market insights, visit excessreturnspod.com

    58 min

  2. 3 DAYS AGO

    This Only Happens in Markets Down 30% | Brent Kochuba on the Rotation Indexes Hide

    Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple Podcasts In this episode of The Opex Effect, Jack and Brent break down the growing impact of options markets on stocks, volatility, and sector rotation. While the major indexes appear calm, massive moves beneath the surface tell a very different story. From software stocks and AI disruption to gold, silver, bonds, and the Nasdaq, they analyze how dealer hedging flows, gamma positioning, implied volatility, and options expiration cycles may be shaping market behavior more than headlines suggest. If you want to understand why markets can feel wildly volatile yet go nowhere, and how options positioning can influence short term price action, this episode provides a deep dive into the mechanics driving today’s market environment. Main Topics Covered Why the market feels like the wildest calm market of all time Massive single stock volatility versus muted index performance Software stock weakness, AI disruption, and the so called SaaS apocalypse The surge in options volume and the rise of zero DTE in major stocks How dealer hedging, delta, gamma, and volatility flows impact equities The historical tendency for markets to flip direction after options expiration Realized volatility versus intraday volatility and what is being hidden Beneath the surface rotation into value, small caps, energy, and defense Gold and silver volatility spikes and what options volume signaled at the top Rising demand for puts and what skew is telling us about downside risk Correlation spikes, VIX behavior, and the risk of a volatility expansion How positioning can create rapid market spasms in single stocks like Nvidia and Tesla Why this environment may represent a staging area for a larger move Timestamps 00:00 Violently going nowhere and hidden volatility01:01 The wildest calm market of all time04:00 Introduction to The Opex Effect and options driven flows05:29 The growth of options trading and zero DTE impact11:00 Dealer hedging, delta, and how options move stocks13:42 Why options expiration can trigger regime changes16:22 Intraday volatility versus close to close volatility20:18 Extreme rotation beneath the surface21:00 Measuring expiration size with the lobster claw rating25:00 Single stock positioning and March expiration risk27:35 Core one month correlation warning signals33:00 Rising put demand and what skew reveals36:45 Asset rotation in bonds, gold, bitcoin, and tech43:06 Correlation spikes and crash risk setup46:40 The quickening of volatility and single stock spasms

    1h 7m

  3. 4 DAYS AGO

    Investing in a Fourth Turning | Neil Howe and Ben Hunt on Inflation, Trust and What Comes Next

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Neil Howe, author of The Fourth Turning Is Here and co-creator of the Fourth Turning generational framework, along with Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory, to discuss where we are in the current cycle and what it means for markets, inflation, AI, capital flows, and America’s long-term economic outlook. From the debasement trade and rising gold prices to global capital crowding out and the structural forces shaping productivity and growth, this conversation connects generational theory with real-world investing decisions. If you’re thinking about inflation, deficits, AI capital spending, global diversification, or how to position defensively and offensively in a shifting macro regime, this discussion provides a powerful framework for navigating what may be a historic transition period. Topics Covered The Fourth Turning framework and where we are in the current crisis cycle Why inflation is not a problem but a policy solution in major crises The collapse in US national savings and long-term deficit risks Capital flows, the debasement trade, and the future of the US dollar Gold, commodities, and real assets in a regime shift Global diversification and opportunities outside the United States AI capital spending, productivity gains, and the risk of overinvestment Crowding out effects from government deficits and AI hyper scaling Trust, geopolitics, and the long-term implications for global markets Healthcare, demographics, and structural investment themes Defensive and offensive positioning in a Fourth Turning environment Timestamps 00:00 Inflation as a solution and the generational crisis framework 04:00 Explaining the Fourth Turning and historical crisis cycles 12:55 Narratives, generational archetypes, and market behavior 22:24 Is the Fourth Turning pessimistic or optimistic 34:00 Inflation, gold, and the debasement trade 40:00 Global capital flows and the reversal of US inflows 50:00 AI capital spending and the K shaped capital markets 55:09 Crowding out, deficits, and slow growth risks 01:02:23 Defensive and offensive investment positioning 01:09:31 Final thoughts on diversification, gold, and financials

    1h 12m

  4. 6 DAYS AGO

    You Can't Eat Risk-Adjusted Returns | AQR's Pete Hecht on Portable Alpha's Capital Efficient Edge

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Pete Hecht of AQR to break down portable alpha, capital efficient portfolio construction, and how investors can combine equity beta with truly diversifying sources of alpha. We cover how portable alpha works in practice, how it solves the funding problem for alternative strategies, and why implementation details like leverage, liquidity, and financing costs matter more than most investors realize. If you’re interested in diversification, long short investing, managed futures, equity market neutral strategies, or improving total returns without giving up equity exposure, this discussion provides a practical and detailed framework. Main Topics Covered What portable alpha actually is and how it differs from traditional stock bond alternative portfolios How portable alpha combines equity beta exposure with unconstrained long short alpha The funding problem with alternatives and how portable alpha solves it Turnkey implementation versus separating alpha managers and beta overlays The role of equity market neutral, managed futures, and multi strategy approaches Why private equity and private credit are poor candidates for portable alpha Long short leverage versus long only leverage and how to think about risk Target volatility, risk models, and stress testing leveraged portfolios Financing costs in futures markets and how higher interest rates affect strategies How to evaluate portable alpha using excess returns, tracking error, and tail risk Tax aware implementation and after tax returns Why mutual funds are not obsolete for active long short strategies The importance of asking whether a view is already priced into valuations Timestamps 00:00 Why you cannot eat a risk adjusted return 02:12 Defining portable alpha and the problem it solves 03:55 Portable alpha versus traditional balanced portfolios 06:54 The funding problem with diversifying alternatives 09:00 How portable alpha works in practice 13:05 What types of alpha strategies work best 16:35 Managed futures and crisis alpha 19:49 Simplicity versus complexity in implementation 21:46 Why private equity and private credit do not work in portable alpha 24:15 Understanding leverage and risk management 29:18 Target volatility and portfolio construction 34:52 Stress testing and lessons from COVID and 2022 35:01 Risks and financing costs of portable alpha 38:50 Interest rates and leveraged strategies 39:07 Identifying hidden beta and volatility laundering 46:08 Introducing AQR Fusion Funds 50:25 Evaluating performance versus the benchmark 53:17 Tax efficiency in long short mutual funds 57:29 Is your view already priced in

    1 hr

  5. 10 FEB

    46% of the S&P 500 is One AI Bet | Kai Wu on Why It’s Likely the Wrong One

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital returns to discuss his latest research on AI adoption, ROI, and what it all means for investors. Building on his prior work on the AI CapEx boom, Kai tackles the trillion dollar question at the center of today’s market: Is AI generating real, measurable economic returns across the broader economy, or are we still in an infrastructure-driven bubble? Using a systematic analysis of earnings calls, patent data, and adoption trends, Kai lays out a framework for identifying which companies are truly benefiting from artificial intelligence and how investors can position portfolios accordingly. Find the Full Paper Here: https://etf.sparklinecapital.com/ Main topics covered: Satya Nadella’s AI bubble framework and why broad economic diffusion matters The AI adoption S-curve and where we are in the technology diffusion cycle A new AI ROI taxonomy based on earnings call analysis and quantified economic gains Real-world AI productivity, revenue, and cost-saving examples across industries Infrastructure vs early adopters vs laggards and how companies were categorized AI-driven outperformance and excess returns across different adopter groups Valuation dispersion between AI infrastructure stocks and AI early adopters The risk of overcapacity and lessons from railroads and the dot-com telecom boom Competition among large language models and the durability of AI moats S&P 500 exposure to AI infrastructure and hidden concentration risk The case for AI early adopters as a middle ground between growth and value Intangible value investing and the concept of AI yield Timestamps: 00:00:00 The trillion dollar question and what “real ROI” means 00:03:19 Nadella’s bubble framework: diffusion vs a narrow CapEx trade 00:06:08 The classic tech diffusion S-curve and where AI is on it 00:32:25 Why infrastructure is being rewarded even if the ROI story is different 00:33:04 The key chart: adoption vs valuation shows “basically no relationship” 00:38:00 Why early adopters and laggards should separate 00:38:26 The “25% ROI” example and how it could show up later in fundamentals 00:39:03 Railroads and fiber: builders go bankrupt, users capture the value 00:39:45 Telecom index fell 95% and never recovered (dot-com bust parallel) 00:40:00 The application layer captures profits; infrastructure becomes a utility 00:41:00 The punchline: transformative tech, but builders can still be bad investments 00:42:57 Overcapacity question: where are we on the line? 00:43:17 The buildout: another $5 trillion of data centers “or whatever the number is” 00:44:00 If there’s no ROI, companies cancel orders 00:45:01 Moat and LLM competition discussion begins 00:49:00 The big one: adding infrastructure names gets the S&P to 46% AI infrastructure 00:50:00 “Alternative indices” swing you to laggard risk 00:51:00 The “false choice” and the “middle ground” framing (early adopters)

    1h 2m

  6. 9 FEB

    It’s Only a Question of When | Nir Kaissar on AI, Private Credit and the Regime Shift Investors Miss

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Nir Kaissar for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, AI, interest rates, private credit, small caps, and the risks investors may be underestimating. Nir shares his unexpected predictions for 2026, challenges the consensus on Fed rate cuts, explains why high profitability may be putting a floor under valuations, and offers a thoughtful framework for thinking about AI, concentration risk, and the future of public versus private markets. This is a deep dive into today’s most important investing debates, grounded in history and focused on what may come next. Topics Covered Nir’s unexpected predictions for 2026 and why mass adoption of autonomous vehicles may arrive faster than investors expect Why the consensus on lower interest rates in 2026 may be wrong and what the two year Treasury yield is signaling The impact of tariffs, affordability pressures, and corporate margins on inflation Why high corporate profitability may support elevated stock market valuations even if returns slow The role of earnings growth in driving S&P 500 returns and why 2015 to 2024 may not repeat Is AI more like 1995 or 1999 in the internet cycle and what that means for long term investors The convergence of big tech companies around AI and the risks of a more zero sum competitive landscape Why companies staying private longer could hurt retail investors and distort public market indices Concentration risk in the S&P 500 and what it means for long term portfolio construction Opportunities and risks in small cap stocks, including the importance of quality screens The growth of private credit markets and the hidden risks investors may not see Why Treasuries may still be the cleanest shirt in the laundry during a crisis Lessons from 20 years of running strategies and what Nir has changed his mind about Timestamps 00:00 Nir’s 2026 predictions and the rise of Waymo 05:00 Interest rates, Trump, and the outlook for Fed policy 08:40 Tariffs, inflation, and corporate margins 12:00 Valuations, profitability, and future S&P 500 returns 16:00 AI compared to the internet era and long term investing lessons 19:00 Public versus private markets and regulatory concerns 32:00 Concentration risk and the Magnificent Seven 39:00 Small caps, quality screens, and value opportunities 47:00 Private credit risks and default cycles 54:30 Nir’s investment philosophy and 20 year lessons

    1h 5m

  7. 7 FEB

    $70 Billion. 18 Straight Outperforming Years | David Giroux on the Index Trap and AI Hype

    David Giroux, CIO of T. Rowe Price and manager of the Capital Appreciation strategy, joins Excess Returns for a wide ranging discussion on market valuation, AI investing, Mag 6 dynamics, utilities, healthcare, fixed income, and how to think independently in volatile markets. David shares his framework for exploiting structural market inefficiencies, why market drawdowns can create opportunity, how he evaluates the S&P 500 at the micro level, and what investors are getting wrong about AI, profit margins, and the current cycle. Main topics covered in this episode • Exploiting structural market inefficiencies in GARP stocks, high yield, and double B credit • Why market drawdowns often lower forward risk and increase expected returns • Strategic equity allocation during periods of fear and volatility • Rethinking S&P 500 valuation through 500 company bottom up analysis • The changing composition of the index and its impact on profit margins • Where the most overvalued and undervalued areas of the market may be today • AI investing framework including Nvidia, AMD, cloud providers, and software risk • How AI could reshape margins, labor productivity, and enterprise software • Differences between today and the dotcom bubble • Overweight positioning in utilities and healthcare and the thesis behind each • Fixed income positioning including the belly of the Treasury curve and fiscal risk • Commodities, gold, and fiscal sustainability • Lessons for portfolio managers on independent thinking and making high conviction bets Timestamps 00:00 Market drawdowns and forward returns 02:09 Exploiting structural market inefficiencies 06:28 Strategic equity allocation during selloffs 11:22 Is the market expensive and how to value the S&P 500 15:00 Profit margins and index composition 17:13 Where valuation excess exists outside the Mag 6 20:38 How to think about AI and enterprise adoption 27:18 AI disruption risk across sectors 39:20 AI versus the dotcom bubble 42:30 Apple versus Meta and capital allocation 46:53 Overweight utilities and healthcare 52:57 Fixed income opportunities and risks 57:32 Commodities, gold, and fiscal concerns 01:00:15 Lessons for new portfolio managers

    1h 5m

  8. 4 FEB

    Lowest Cash Levels Ever | Kevin Muir on Markets at Extremes

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, for a wide-ranging conversation on market sentiment, asset rotation, and the growing signals of stress beneath the surface of global markets. Kevin explains why extreme bullishness can be dangerous, why gold and commodities may be flashing warning signs, and how shifts in currencies, energy, and global capital flows could reshape portfolios in the years ahead. From hedging strategies to volatility, from AI-driven concentration to international diversification, this discussion focuses on how investors can think clearly in an environment where traditional relationships are breaking down. Topics covered: Why extreme bullish sentiment can be a warning sign for markets The meaning of “buying straw hats in the winter” and how to think about hedging Market breadth, small caps, and whether rotations are healthy or late cycle Gold, silver, and what precious metals signal about financial stress Cross-asset volatility and why correlations are changing Energy markets, commodities, and the long-term impact of underinvestment Global capital flows, foreign ownership of US assets, and currency risk The US dollar, trade deficits, and implications for international investors Portfolio construction lessons from bonds, commodities, and FX How macro regime shifts can change risk management and diversification Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and market sentiment overview 03:00 Buying protection and the straw hat analogy 07:00 Sentiment indicators and market confirmation 12:00 Market rotations, small caps, and late-cycle risks 18:00 Gold, silver, and precious metals as warning signals 23:00 Bonds, currencies, and broken correlations 29:00 Energy markets and commodity underinvestment 37:00 Global capital flows and foreign ownership of US assets 44:00 The US dollar, trade deficits, and FX volatility 52:00 Macro regime shifts and portfolio construction lessons

    1h 10m
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

Information

  • Creator
    Excess Returns
  • Years Active
    2019 - 2026
  • Episodes
    461
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 905628
  • Show Website
    Excess Returns

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