Today we had the pleasure of hosting Corey Rosenbusch for a wide-ranging discussion on the fertilizer industry, global energy markets, and the geopolitical forces increasingly shaping both. Corey is the President and CEO of The Fertilizer Institute (TFI), headquartered in Arlington, Virginia. Corey joined TFI in 2020 after serving as President and CEO of the Global Cold Chain Alliance. He currently serves as Chair of the Texas A&M University Agricultural Leadership, Education & Communication Department Advisory Board and the Association Leadership Group. We were thrilled to host Corey to better understand the connections between fertilizer, natural gas, food security, and global supply chains. In our conversation, Corey provides a comprehensive overview of the global fertilizer industry and its critical connection to energy markets. He explains how natural gas serves as the essential feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production, outlines the distinct dynamics of nitrogen, phosphate, potash, and sulfur markets, and discusses why fertilizer has become increasingly intertwined with global geopolitics, food security, and national security. We examine how disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz affected global flows of urea, ammonia, phosphate, and sulfur, why export restrictions from China and Russia have reshaped global trade, and how government subsidies, tariffs, and state-owned enterprises continue to influence fertilizer pricing and availability. Corey highlights the concentration of global fertilizer production and exports across a handful of countries and explains how those supply chains have become increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical disruption. Corey shares why current fertilizer market conditions differ from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine disruption, how weak farm economics and higher input costs are impacting U.S. growers, and why fertilizer prices are ultimately driven by global supply and demand rather than local production. We discuss the outlook for fertilizer demand, key Farm Bill provisions, including E15 and biostimulants, the competitiveness of U.S. fertilizer manufacturing, and why expanding domestic production, streamlining permitting, and maintaining access to affordable natural gas will be critical to strengthening both U.S. food security and energy security. We learned a great deal from Corey and greatly enjoyed the discussion. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted the day's market trifecta: lower bond yields, lower oil prices, and higher equity markets. The 10-year Treasury yield was trading between 4.60% and 4.65%, well below last week's high of ~4.75%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up approximately 1,000 points, driven largely by significant share price gains in Caterpillar and Goldman Sachs. These two stocks alone accounted for roughly 500 points of the DJIA's gain. He highlighted several companies scheduled to report second-quarter earnings results this week, including AMD, Disney, Eli Lilly, and SpaceX. On the oil market front, he noted that WTI crude oil prices had fallen roughly $9/bbl to ~$75-$76/bbl so far this week following a temporary pause in U.S. military strikes on Iran. While U.S. strikes are on hold for now, military action could resume at any point, contributing to heightened oil price volatility. Despite WTI declining more than 10% this week, the energy sector was down only ~1.5%. Investor focus last week was primarily on second-quarter earnings results from the U.S. integrated oil majors, Chevron and ExxonMobil, as well as refiners, with management teams indicating that global refining margins remain structurally tight. He highlighted BP's new CEO's comment that it would be "prudent" to stop thinking of BP as a traditional Big Oil supermajor and instead compete within its own weight class. He concluded by highlighting President Trump's remarks about to Chevron’s and ExxonMobil’s record-setting quarterly results. President Trump argued that these companies were making too much money and should return more of their profits to the public and lower retail prices. Chevron and ExxonMobil generated average second-quarter profit margins in the mid-to-high teens and have generally reported high single-digit to low-double-digit profit margins over the past three years. By comparison, large-cap tech companies reported average second-quarter profit margins of ~40% and have averaged ~45% to 50% profit margins over the last three years. Jeff Tillery added his perspective on the outlook for U.S. natural gas demand, noting that forecasts call for roughly 20 bcfd of cumulative demand growth over the next five years. While significant, he emphasized that this largely represents a continuation of trends already underway. U.S. natural gas demand increased by nearly 20 bcfd over the past five years, driven primarily by LNG exports, and he expects exports to remain the primary driver of growth going forward. While he remains constructive on the long-term natural gas demand outlook, he emphasized that the next phase is more evolutionary than transformational.
