Disorder Goalhanger & Global Enduring Disorder Ltd

At the end of the 20th century many world governments sought to lower birth rates – e.g. China’s One Child Policy – but now in 2024… most major world governments are focussed on bringing fertility rates up. In fact, nearly all of the developed world is facing a declining and aging population. Hence, for the first time in human history a majority of the globe’s population now lives under governments with a stated intent to influence childbearing. 
 
So why do so many governments seem obsessed with national fertility rates? Should they be in the business of encouraging more people to have children – and if yes, what kind of incentives do or don’t work? Are their coherent international regulations governing adoption and surrogacy and if not, why not? Is the domain of demography another realm of coordination failures and enduring disorder? 
 
To start this week’s episode, Jason Pack and Alex Hall Hall discuss the overall demographic state of our planet and why there can be so much traffic at the Holland Tunnel even amidst failing fertility rates. Alex talks about her own IVF journey and the thought process that led to the eventual adoption of her kids and she discusses why governments need holistic approaches to fertility rather than the mere use of cash incentives. Jason rails about the glaring need for global governance to provide universally acknowledged rules concerning adoption, surrogacy, and to deter the use of those pesky chemicals in plastics that reduce men’s sperm counts. 
 
To close the show, Alex and Jason take some listener questions. They cover: 1) Could Russia implode when Putin loses in Ukraine? 2) Should Britain finally create a written constitution? 3) Are voices that point out western hypocrisy without proposing solutions actually spreading disorder? And 4) All things considered (meaning holidays, NHS, and public transport) is one better compensated in the UK or US for the same work? 
 
Twitter: @DisorderShow 
 
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  
 
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  
 
Producer: George McDonagh 
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 
 
Show Notes Links 
Listen to Birthrates Are Plummeting Worldwide. Why? https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-ezra-klein-show/id1548604447?i=1000649683423  
 
Hear Are we living through an infertility epidemic? https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000650753528  
 
Listen to The Guardian’s The chilling policy to cut Greenland’s high birth rate https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-in-focus/id1440133626?i=1000652922783  
 
Check out Who screwed millennials: a generation left behind – Full Story podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-in-focus/id1440133626?i=1000650954693  
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Jason is so so so excited he just just just can’t hide it. He sees the hand of a providential mega orderer at work with the UK going to a general election on July 4th. He doesn’t understand why his British friends poopoo his man crush on Starmer, because he sees Sir Keir as truly messianic in his non-messianic-ness and as a better, younger, more competent version of Biden.  
 
To get a native-born insider’s view on the election, Jason is joined by his Scottish doppelganger (Jane Kinninmont) to discuss what the election could mean for UK foreign policy, post-July 4th Britian’s ability to be an orderer on the global stage, and also what this election timing means for developments North of Hadrian’s wall. 
 
The duo discuss: alternate theories as to why this election timing came about, where the electoral battlelines are being drawn (solidly in the centre ground – especially on foreign policy), if the electoral competition is not focused on wildly different worldviews but on competence, and the potentially disordering role of anti-system players like Corbyn, Galloway, Farage, and Richard Tice.   
 
The show ends with Jason putting forward his mystical grand unified theory of how Irish, Italian, Israeli, and British elections effect US elections. You wouldn’t want to miss it. 
 
 
Twitter: @DisorderShow 
 
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  
 
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  
 
Producer: George McDonagh 
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 
 
 
Show Notes Links: 
 
For a quick overview of the mechanics of how Sunak’s team called the General Election: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9rr73w103vo  
For Arthur Snell’s recent substack: ‘Is this why he called it now?, An excellent new podcast gave me thought of a possible reason for Sunak's timing: https://arthursnell.substack.com/p/is-this-why-he-called-it-now  
 
Inflation in UK now lower than in EU or US and yet GBP to USD still strong: 
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-election-date-lifts-fog-over-promising-market-recovery-2024-05-23/ 
 
How a potential disordering disaster has been averted: BEN ANSELL, in the FT on ‘Parallel US and UK elections could bring dangers’: https://www.ft.com/content/176d4b78-1e9a-45c9-8c3c-a74e758ec22f 
 
David Lammy on Labour’s Foreign Policy vision: https://www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/members-event/what-labours-foreign-policy  
 
Labour saying things on defence and security spending that appeal to US Republicans  and a generally more isolationist US – see Elbridge Colby praising David Lammy: https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-ally-hits-out-at-david-cameron-for-lecturing-us/  
 
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The sun is shining, the flowers are in bloom, there is a dense fog over the Iranian-Azeri border, what time does that make it? Russo-Ukrainian Summer Offensive Time!  
 
This episode starts with a short emergency-cast about the crash of the Iranian President’s helicopter due to fog. Jason briefly investigates if the death of this ‘disorderer-in-chief’ is likely to bring any more order to the Middle East region, before rejoining our regularly scheduled programming about Ukraine. 
 
Over the last two weeks, Russia has been gaining territory in Ukraine’s northeast, while the shelling of Kharkiv has progressively increased. This does not come as a surprise. The Ukrainians have been on the back foot militarily since their 2023 Summer offensive stalled. 
 
What is the strategic logic of Russia’s recent advance? Jason is joined by acclaimed military historian Saul David. He co-hosts our sister podcast within the Goalhanger network, Battleground. Saul and Jason debate the strategic logic behind Russia’s recent moves – proposing three alternative theses for Russia’s actions: 1) Putin is trying to create a buffer zone in northeastern Ukraine; 2) the current offensive is a faint to draw Ukrainian troops to the north prior to a Russian attack in Donbass; 3) Russia is trying to turn Kharkiv into Mariupol, Grozny, or Aleppo, that is to say to aerially decimate the city and inflict tremendous humanitarian suffering on its populace without any hope of actually conquering it.   
 
After sketching a broad-brush stroke picture of the tactical and strategic situation on the ground, Saul and Jason discuss how new shipments of Western armaments will affect the current fighting; recent Russian attempts to assassinate President Zelensky; if the murder of Navalny has changed battlefield dynamics at all; the role of China and the ongoing Gaza war upon the fighting in Ukraine; and what are the relevant historical parallels to the current fighting and what lessons they hold for orderers. 
 
Twitter: @DisorderShow 
 
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  
 
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  
 
Producer: George McDonagh 
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 
 
Show Notes Links 
 
For a quick overview of Iranian President Raisi’s death and what happens next: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/20/world/europe/raisi-iran-instability.html  
 
Listen to Goalhanger’s excellent Battleground Pod here: https://www.goalhangerpodcasts.com/battleground  
 
Get Saul’s Sunday Times bestselling book, Sky Warriors: British Airborne Forces in the Second World War, here: 
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Sky-Warriors-British-Airborne-Forces/dp/0008522162 
 
Learn more about what is going on: 
Is the Russian offensive a faint? Read more here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/16/russias-victory-day-campaign-just-ran-into-a-wall-of-ukrainian-mechanized-troops/  
 
More on Tactics and Armaments affecting development in Kharkiv: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/15/russia-kharkiv-offensive-ukraine-vovchansk-weapons-biden/   
 
 
For more on Blinken’s visit to Kyiv: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/14/ukraine-zelenskiy-calls-for-more-air-defences-as-blinken-arrives-in-kyiv 
 
And on the Russian plot to assassinate Zelensky:  https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-assassination-plot-foiled-1897852 
 
Find out more on Ukraine's will to survive and defend Kharkiv from Jade McGlynn: 
Her recent Pod with Arthur Snell:  
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/id1704344656?i=1000653710733 
 
And her Dispatch from Kharkiv commemorating the 2 year anniversary of the war: https://engelsbergideas.com/notebook/despatch-from-kharkiv/ 
 
Finally, Jason and Bill Browder’s ideas on the need for a seizure of Frozen Russian asset via Navalny acts: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/what-makes-a-martyr-alexei-navalny-shines-a-

Earlier this week, Georgia passed its controversial ‘foreign agent’ law.

Under the bill, NGOs and independent media that receive more than 20% of their funding from foreign donors would have to register as organisations "bearing the interests of a foreign power”. The law has been met with mass protests across the country.

So what does the passing of this bill mean for Georgia’s hope to become an EU and NATO member? What could it mean for the countries elections later this year? And how should the West respond?

To find out, Alex Hall Hall (who served as Ambassador to Georgia), speaks to Ia Meurmishvili. An international journalist based in Washington, DC. She a former Managing Editor at Voice of America's Georgian Service, where she hosted the weekly TV show, "View from Washington."  She is a frequent commentator and moderator in international discussions about U.S. foreign and national security policy, particularly with respect to the Caucasus and Eurasia region.

Twitter: @DisorderShow

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/

Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn

Show Notes Links
Read Alex’s article How the Georgian ‘Foreign Agents Bill’ May Cost it Everything its People Have Ever Dreamed Of – And Benefit No One But Russia https://bylinetimes.com/2024/05/02/how-the-georgian-foreign-agents-bill-may-cost-it-everything-its-people-have-ever-dreamed-of-and-benefit-no-one-but-russia/

Georgia approves controversial 'foreign agent' law, sparking more protests https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-69007465
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Part of the Enduring Disorder is our increasingly divided and partisan narratives. Trump vs. Biden, Leavers against Remainers, Palestinians and Israelis. Many of today’s political actors appear unable to understand and empathise with their opponent’s points of view. Why? Potential because social media, cancel culture, and increased partisanship seems to have actually decreased people’s ability to feel empathy or to desire it from their politicians.  
 
But should all our politicians just be more empathetic? Actually electorally that might not work.  Do Democrats actually want to see Biden empathise with Speaker Johnson blocking aid to Ukraine? Would Labour voters accept it if Kier Starmer had sympathy with Boris Johnson lying to parliament? And does the Israeli electorate want a politician who has empathy for why Hamas committed the atrocities of Oct 7?  
 
So what does empathy really mean in geopolitics? And how can it actually be put into practice in today’s politics? Most crucially how could a genuinely empathetic politics be useful in trying to order the disorder?  
 
To find out, Jason Pack is joined by Dr Claire Yorke. She is an author and academic whose work explores the role and limitations of empathy and emotions in international relations, diplomacy, strategy, and political leadership. She is currently a Senior Lecturer at the Australian War College in Canberra. Jason and Claire discuss: what exactly is empathy? Can or should you empathise with someone that you fundamentally disagree with? And could empathetic leadership help us Order the Disorder? 
 
Twitter: @DisorderShow 
 
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  
 
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  
 
Producer: George McDonagh 
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 
 
Show Notes Links 
Read Claire’s essay, Is empathy a strategic imperative? https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2022.2152800  
 
Read Claire Yorke: "Personal and Political Emotions in the Mind of the Diplomat.". https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402390.2022.2152800  
 
Claire’s website: https://claireyorke.me  
 
Find out more about Empathy Week – to help grow empathy in the classroom and create a new generation who understands its value - https://www.empathy-week.com  
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Putin’s nuclear threats over Ukraine and the constant potential of an Iranian/Israeli escalation have brought concerns over nuclear proliferation back up the geopolitical agenda. Western-aligned Asian countries – like South Korea and Saudi Arabia – have begun talking openly about whether they might need their own nukes. Meanwhile, even Germany – one of the most avowedly anti-nuclear countries in Europe – is now having a new debate about whether there should be a “Eurobomb”. 
 
All these countries American allies are thinking of nuclearizing as they have a growing fear that they might not be able to rely on the US if the chips are down. All of this talk leads us to wonder will nuclear weapons ever be used and are nuclear threats and discussions of nuclearizing important even if the weapons will never be used? 
 
In this episode of Disorder, Jason Pack talks to Jane Kinninmont. Jane is a peace and security expert with two decades of experience covering the Middle East, at the Economist Intelligence Unit and Chatham House. She is now with the European Leadership Network, which brings together more than 400 current, former and future European leaders to reduce nuclear risks and prevent conflict. The duo discuss: what are the risks of countries like South Korea, Germany and Saudi Arabia going nuclear? Is the current non-proliferation treaty regime up to scratch? And does nuclear non-proliferation actually work? 
 
Twitter: @DisorderShow 
 
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  
 
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  
 
Producer: George McDonagh 
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 
 
Show Notes Links 
 
Germany debates nuclear weapons, again. But now it’s different: https://thebulletin.org/2024/03/germany-debates-nuclear-weapons-again-but-now-its-different/  
 
Read Keir Starmer: Labour commitment to nuclear weapons unshakeable: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68790435  
 
For more on Jane’s background and work: https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/person/jane-kinninmont/  
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