Global Thinking Rob Duncan

US equities have taken center stage over the last few years and are touching all-time highs as consumers continue to show strength with healthy balance sheets and less sensitivity to higher interest rates. But is all this good news already priced in?
 
What may be surprising is that returns are no longer being powered primarily by the “Magnificent 7”. Instead, forgotten and unloved sectors are now witnessing a steady bid.
 
In this episode Rob sits with BMO’s Chief Investment Officer, Sadiq Adatia, to talk about their recent market outlook and why they believe a broadening market rally is in the cards for 2024. While high quality and financials in the US are in focus, gold and commodity-oriented equities could see a continuation of strength.
 
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Interest Rate Obsession: Are Markets Missing the Bigger Picture?
 
Markets have found a new obsession to dote upon: timing central bank rate cutes. Everywhere you look, interest rate expectations continue to dominate headlines and market narratives. Imminent recession fears have been replaced with questions on the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts, but interest rates are only part of the story. The larger trend is the impressive resilience not only of the US economy but also in other parts of the world.
 
After pricing in up to 6 rate cuts to start the year investor expectations have quickly scaled back to 3. One could even wonder, are we actually in the “no landing” economy?
 
In this episode Rob sits down with Forstrong Lead PM, David Kletz, to talk about expectations on rate cuts and the possibility of a “Bull Steepening” on the yield curve. Additionally, they walk through Forstrong’s recent strategy changes and why they see greater opportunity in US mid-caps, Emerging Markets debt and Swedish equities.
 
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In this episode Rob sits down with Michael Greenberg, Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, to ask questions about their market outlook and where they see opportunity in the year ahead. Throughout the podcast Mike shares his perspectives on inflation, expectations for interest rate cuts, concentration in US equity’s “AI enablers” and Bitcoin’s impact on portfolio returns. While Mike remains positive on the US avoiding a recession and continued equity performance, he makes an interesting case for opportunities within Emerging Markets. Tune in to hear more.
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Bio: Michael Greenberg is a senior vice president and portfolio manager for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions and is a member of the Investment Strategy & Research Committee.
Mike specializes in fixed income strategy and has co-portfolio management responsibilities for all Canada-based managed programs, including Franklin Quotential, Franklin LifeSmart Sustainable and Franklin ETF Portfolios. He also manages institutional mandates in North America. Mike holds a bachelor of commerce with honors in marketing and international management from the University of Ottawa. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) designations.
 

One year ago, market forecasters were in absolute agreement. A Bloomberg consensus survey showed that 100% of the respondents predicted a global recession in 2023.  Rising interest rates would surely create an inevitable “hard landing”. When such agreement exists in the investment world one must ask the obvious question, “What don’t we already know?”.  
 
Since then, fears over hard landings have vanished as the powerful surge in US-led growth has thinned out the recession camp. But less discussed is that economic activity outside America has also firmed, led by a liftoff in global trade.
 
Does this mean that the bull market in US stocks will also start broadening out? We think so. In fact, investor optimism has created bull markets from New York to Tokyo.  Japan, France, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Taiwan, Netherlands, Denmark, Italy, Brazil, and India are in or near bull market territory touching highs last seen in the Post Covid rally.
 
So, what don’t we already know?
 
As the Magnificent 7 continue to grab headlines and push prices and valuations to historical highs, opportunities for a follow through trade are all around us. In this episode Rob and Tyler discuss why a broadening rally is so important and how best to position portfolios to profit from this emerging macro trend.

On this episode Rob sits down with our good friend Rodrigo Gordillo from Resolve Asset Management. Rodrigo has a fascinating background and shares how hyperinflation in 1980s Peru shaped his life and investment philosophy. He also discusses why emerging markets have been more proactive in combating inflation over the last few years, and why inflation volatility will be higher this decade than the last.
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Bitcoin ETFs: Crypto Moves Further Into The Mainstream
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Welcome back to all our listeners. This is now Season 4 of the Forstrong Global Thinking podcast and there is no shortage of topics to dive into. In this episode Rob sits down with Tyler Mordy, CEO and CIO, to discuss which macro trends are shaping the investment landscape. 
Looking back, last year was one of heightened risk aversion: some $1.3 trillion dollars ran into global money market funds. Meanwhile, our investment team has a thesis that may stretch minds: we are entering a new risk-taking cycle based on an entirely different set of macroeconomic conditions and investment leadership. As 2024 progresses, Forstrong forecasts recession fears will again recede, and aggressive rate cut expectations will be unwound. 
Tune-in to hear why shifts away from cash will lead to a big rotation into the cheap, cyclically sensitive and inflation hedging assets.
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