Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe Vaclavik

Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

  1. 2D AGO

    Has Farmer Selling Capped the Corn Rally?

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Corn futures slipped Thursday as favorable Corn Belt weather and crude oil weakness weighed on prices. The Dec26 contract settled near $4.94, unable to break through the key $5.00 level. Wheat saw sharp losses, dropping ~16 cents on Plains rainfall forecasts, while soybeans finished mostly unchanged. The USDA drought monitor showed meaningful improvement in the Corn Belt—drought coverage fell from 36% to just 11% since the start of the year. However, conditions are worsening in Nebraska and Kansas, and winter wheat continues to struggle under dry conditions and recent freezes. The House passed the farm bill 224–200, reauthorizing ag and food programs for five years. The E15 year-round sales provision was stripped from the bill after pushback from oil-state Republicans. A standalone E15 vote is now expected separately. Kalshi will not offer 24/7 grain markets after pushback from industry groups and regulators. Grain contracts will align with traditional exchange hours. Meanwhile, the CFTC is reportedly considering more frequent publication of its Commitment of Traders report. Weekly export sales were strong for corn at 1.6mmt — up 21% week-over-week — with Colombia as the top buyer. Soybean sales were soft at 258,100mt. Wheat sales came in near the top of expectations at 226,100mt, up 75% from the prior week. The S&P 500 closed above 7,200 for the first time, gaining 1% to a new all-time high. Strong earnings and AI optimism drove the rally, even as Q1 GDP came in at 2% — below the expected 2.2%.

    27 min

  2. 3D AGO

    The Farm Lobby is WEAK! Year-Round E15 Ethanol Dropped from Farm Bill

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Farm bill votes are underway—amendments Wednesday night, final vote expected Thursday. The E15 fuel controversy nearly derailed it, but that plan's been dropped. Bipartisan support is building despite House Democrat leadership opposition, as farmers facing rising costs and bankruptcies need relief now. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith is pushing to cut fertilizer costs with the Lowering Input Costs for American Farmers Act, targeting tariffs on phosphate imports from Morocco — which controls over 70% of global phosphate reserves. The American Farm Bureau and American Soybean Association are on board. Oil surged nearly 7% Wednesday to $106.88/barrel as Strait of Hormuz disruptions look increasingly long-term. Trump says the blockade holds until Iran agrees to a nuclear deal — and Tehran isn't blinking. Markets are starting to price in a real supply shock, not just geopolitical noise. Wheat futures pulled back slightly after hitting a near two-year high, settling at $6.53/bu on the July26 contract. Drought concerns across the Plains remain, and the forecasted rain is expected to miss the driest areas. Corn and soybeans both closed higher. Bunge raised its 2026 profit outlook after a strong Q1 beat—higher soybean oil prices, solid crush margins, and rising biofuel demand driven by new EPA mandates are all tailwinds. Trade tensions and supply chain risk remain the key unknowns. US ethanol production dipped to 1.01M bpd last week, down 3% week-over-week. Stocks fell to 25.88M barrels. Despite the drop, Corn Belt ethanol margins remain solidly positive at 15–40 cents.

    14 min

  3. 4D AGO

    HEAVY Rain in Illinois + Corn/Wheat RALLY!

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌧️ Illinois Historic Rainfall — Severe thunderstorms dropped a record 3.6" in Springfield and 2.1" in Peoria Tuesday, the highest single-storm totals since 2002. Flooding concerns are mounting across the region, with some corn and soybean growers already discussing replant options. 🌾 Wheat Surges on Plains Drought — The May26 Chicago and Kansas City wheat contracts jumped 28 and 30 cents Tuesday to close at $6.49 and $6.97/bu, respectively, on intensifying drought stress across the U.S. Plains. Forecasted rainfall is expected to miss the hardest-hit western areas, where yield losses are likely already underway. 🌽 Corn Gains, Beans Slip — May26 corn gained roughly 5 cents to close near $4.65/bu — its highest since late March — supported by near-term Corn Belt rainfall, strong export demand, and a 3.7% surge in crude oil to near $100/barrel. Soybeans edged lower on technical selling and expectations of large South American supplies, while the Dec27 corn contract topped $5.00/bu for the first time. 🥩 Smithfield Margins Under Pressure — Rising diesel and packaging costs tied to the Middle East conflict are squeezing Smithfield's profitability, sending shares down roughly 8% Tuesday despite a Q1 earnings beat. The company plans to offset input cost headwinds through price increases and efficiency improvements, and also noted higher beef prices amid historically tight cattle supplies. 🌱 EU Rejects S. American Soy Shipments — Dutch authorities detected non-approved GMOs in four Argentine and two Brazilian soybean meal shipments, triggering withdrawals and potential disruption to the EU's largest soy suppliers. The situation could shift demand toward the U.S. and Ukraine as Europe enforces its strict GMO import regulations.

    13 min

  4. 5D AGO

    Farmers and Biofuel People: Bring THIS Chart to Congress!!!

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Gas prices are climbing again, hitting a national average of $4.17/gallon, with analysts warning of $4.20 within days as oil hovers near $100/barrel amid the US-Iran conflict and near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Emergency oil reserves worldwide are being drawn down rapidly, raising supply alarm bells. US winter wheat conditions remain historically weak — the top 5 HRW states are averaging just 13.8% good-excellent, with Nebraska's crop sitting at a staggering 65% poor-very poor. Corn and soybean planting are running ahead of the average pace. Wheat futures rallied Monday on crude strength, a weaker dollar, and dry Plains conditions. Chicago May26 wheat settled near $6.22, KC May26 near $6.67, with both HRW and HRS posting fresh highs. Corn and beans also closed higher, with Dec26 corn hitting fresh 1-month highs overnight. The Iran war is triggering a major fertilizer crisis—over half of the Middle  East's urea production has been disrupted, with roughly 30% of global urea trade affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure. Farmers worldwide may be forced to cut application rates, threatening yields and global food security. The Trump administration is expected to unveil a fertilizer investment plan this week, targeting both short-term price relief and long-term domestic production reshoring, while the USDA and DOJ investigate potential price gouging. US corn export inspections came in at 65 million bushels for the week ending April 23 — solid but down slightly week-over-week. Soybean shipments were up 37% vs. last year, with China taking ~39% of inspections. Wheat shipments came in near the top of expectations at 13 million bushels.

    13 min

  5. 6D AGO

    Farm Land Sells for MILLIONS Despite Multi-Year Ag Recession

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 A 128-acre Iowa farm in Louisa County sold for $2.1 million at auction — roughly 35% above statewide and county per-acre averages — drawing 46 registered bidders from 12 states. A 79-acre tract of highly productive cropland led the way at $21,050/acre, reflecting strong demand driven by scarcity and farmland's track record of ~12.7% average annual returns from 1970–2021. 🌵 Severe drought is tightening its grip on the US High Plains, with 70% of the winter wheat crop now drought-stressed — the highest coverage since December 2022. Poor pasture conditions and wildfire losses are also forcing cattle producers to liquidate herds, with El Niño rains expected too late to help winter wheat or summer grazing. 🏛️ The USDA is doubling disaster aid payments this week, increasing the SDRP payment factor from 35% to 70% for approved 2023–2024 claims. The application deadline has also been extended to August 12, and the Trump administration is expected to announce measures to address surging fertilizer prices in the coming weeks. 📊 Large money managers were net buyers of 30k corn contracts and 19k soybean contracts for the week ending April 21, per the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report. Funds were net sellers of 3k SRW wheat contracts on the week. 🇮🇷 US-Iran negotiations were called off over the weekend after President Trump canceled talks that were set to take place in Pakistan. Iran is demanding the US lift its Strait of Hormuz blockade before talks resume, while the White House says the blockade will remain in place as maximum economic pressure.

    15 min

  6. APR 24

    Wheat Futures Soar on Escalating Drought Concerns

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾📈 Wheat surges on drought: Prices jumped to multi-week highs as worsening dryness grips the Plains, with 70% of winter wheat in drought. Corn edged higher, while soybeans slipped. 🌦️➡️🌵 Mixed weather pattern: Rain improved parts of the Corn Belt, but drought worsened elsewhere—especially the High Plains and Kentucky. Nebraska conditions sharply deteriorated, with 56% in extreme drought. 🛢️⚠️ Oil spikes on tensions: Crude climbed over 3% near $96 as Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz restricted, while fragile ceasefires keep geopolitical risk elevated. 🌱💰 Pulses gain favor: Farmers are shifting to peas and lentils as a rare profit opportunity, driven by strong protein demand and lower input costs. 🚢📊 Exports mixed but solid: Corn sales dipped week-over-week but remain strong overall; soybean and wheat sales showed mixed trends, with steady global demand.

    16 min

  7. APR 23

    "Biofuel Foes" Try to Kill RVOs + Soybeans REJECT Fresh Highs

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Lawmakers are pushing to overturn the EPA's biofuel blending mandates for 2026 and 2027 using the Congressional Review Act. The effort is considered a long shot and is unlikely to gain traction. 🫘 Soybean futures fell Wednesday as soybean oil volatility and fading rumors of Chinese buying weighed on the market. Corn edged higher on strong export demand and favorable rainfall forecasts across the Corn Belt. 🌾 Wheat futures turned lower after two days of gains as expected rainfall in drought-affected areas pressured prices. Cotton pulled back after hitting a near two-year high, with crude oil prices and widespread drought keeping the longer-term outlook supportive. 💊 The USDA is actively working to address surging fertilizer costs, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins in daily contact with the White House. Russia extended its fertilizer export quotas through year-end amid global supply tightness tied to the Iran war. ⛽ US ethanol production dipped 7% week-over-week but remains above year-ago levels, with margins staying healthy across the Corn Belt. Ethanol stocks rose to 26.95 million barrels. 📦 USDA reported a third consecutive flash sale of corn this week, with 130,000 metric tons sold to unknown destinations. The weekly total now stands at 425,000 metric tons, or 17 million bushels.

    15 min

  8. APR 22

    Soybean Marketing ALERT! Farmers Pay Attention!

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ✅ Corn & soybean futures recap — what's driving the move higher ✅ Trump extends Iran ceasefire — and what it means for crude oil & biofuels ✅ Senate eyes $15–$20B in additional farmer aid — but is it actually coming? ✅ Biofuel demand surging as crude oil climbs 30%+ since the start of the Iran war ✅ Kalshi & Polymarket moving into crypto perpetual futures — could this force CME's hand on 24/7 commodity markets? ✅ ADM crude corn oil spill on the Mississippi River at Red Wing, MN ✅ USDA flash sales — 12 million bushels of corn sold to Colombia and unknown destinations

    15 min
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Hosts & Guests

5
out of 5
21 Ratings

About

Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

Information

  • Creator
    Joe Vaclavik
  • Years Active
    2020 - 2026
  • Episodes
    1.7K
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Grain Markets and Other Stuff
  • Show Website
    Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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