Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe Vaclavik

Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

  1. 1 hr ago

    Trump Wants MORE Direct Farm Payments AND Year-Round E15 Ethanol

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Farm Aid Boost 💰 Trump is requesting $11B+ in new farm aid on top of $30.5B already expected this year, including $10B for 2026 crop support and $1.1B for Southeast freeze losses. This would stack on top of the $12B Farmer Bridge Assistance Program already rolling out to producers. ⛽ Year-Round E15 Push 🌽 The White House just made its first formal request for Congress to legalize year-round E15 ethanol sales, framing it as a way to ease gas prices amid Middle East tensions. Unlike the House bill that already passed, Trump's version strips out the controversial Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) provisions. 🏭 Illinois Soybean Crush Plant 🌱 Incobrasa Industries opened a massive new 170,000 sq ft crush facility in Gilman, IL, doubling capacity and creating 40 new jobs while securing demand for 7,000 local farms. The plant even includes a 50-acre solar array to help power operations sustainably. 📉 Grains Under Pressure 🌾 Corn and soybeans extended their losing streak Wednesday, with Dec26 corn near $4.35/bu and Nov26 soybeans at $11.35/bu, pressured by a stronger dollar and weak crude. Wheat also slid for a fourth straight session as bearish momentum builds across the complex. 🛢️ Oil Prices Sink 📉 WTI crude tumbled nearly 4% to $70.34/barrel as Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes post-ceasefire, even as Trump calls for a DOJ probe into oil companies over retail prices. Gas prices are already down nearly 60 cents/gallon over the past month, though they typically lag crude moves. 🚢 Fertilizer Flows Rebound 🌍 Crop nutrient shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are surging back, with at least 16 vessels transiting since the Iran peace deal and volumes nearing pre-war levels. Urea prices are already easing as fears of prolonged disruption fade. ⚗️ Ethanol Update 📊 US ethanol output dipped slightly last week to 1.09M barrels/day while stocks climbed to 24.59M barrels. Despite the soft production, Corn Belt margins remain strong, running 30–50 cents positive, per Reuters data.

    18 min

  2. 1d ago

    "Dome of Doom" Weather Pattern to Hit Corn Belt - Why Don't Traders Care??

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌡️ A massive heat dome is set to roast the Plains and Corn Belt next week, pushing real-feel temps above 100°F across the Ohio, Mississippi, and Tennessee Valleys. It'll dry out soggy fields but deepen drought stress elsewhere, with stormy edges threatening localized flooding and crop damage too. 🌱 Soybeans held steady Tuesday after two down sessions, with Nov26 parked at $11.42/bu. Corn slid for a third straight day to $4.37/bu on Dec26, even as fresh export demand offered some support. 💰 Input costs are easing, but farmers say it's not enough. Wisconsin growers point to lingering strain from Iran-war-driven fertilizer and fuel spikes, with some relief now coming from US-Iran peace talks—though next year's fertilizer costs already loom large. 🇨🇳 The US Soybean Export Council is leaning on quality to claw back Chinese demand lost to Brazil. Brazil now grabs over 60% of China's soybean imports versus just 23% for the US, a stark flip from a decade ago when both sat near 40%. ⚓ Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports near Odesa could slash the country's grain exports by up to 30%. With Ukraine accounting for a meaningful slice of global wheat and corn trade, exports are already running about 12% behind last year's pace. ⛽ E15 legislation cleared the House but faces a tougher Senate fight ahead. Minnesota farmer Tim Waibel says oil-industry opposition and an uncertain Senate timeline are the biggest hurdles, even as crop conditions back home look excellent.

    16 min

  3. 2d ago

    Trump Says Iran Will Buy US Ag Products with Frozen Funds

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇮🇷🌾 US-Iran talks could open the door to new ag demand, with Trump saying unfrozen Iranian funds would go toward purchases of US corn, soybeans, and wheat. Iran's negotiator claims a $12 billion unfreeze deal, though the US hasn't confirmed it, and recent Iranian crop demand has been minimal since a 2018 soybean buy. 🛢️📉 Crude oil kept sliding, with WTI falling over 2% to settle near $75/barrel, its lowest since early March. Progress in US-Iran talks and reports of Iran getting approval to sell petroleum products pressured the market, with traders looking ahead to a potentially reopened Strait of Hormuz. 🌽🌱 Corn and soybeans moved lower Monday, with Dec26 corn down ~4 cents to $4.40 and Nov26 soybeans down a penny to $11.42. Falling crude, a firmer dollar, and favorable Corn Belt conditions weighed on prices, though excess rain in some areas is raising minor concern. 🌧️🚜 Weekend storms brought rain to Nebraska but also hail and wind damage in spots. Coverage was uneven across the state, and despite the moisture, much of Nebraska remains in drought with more rain and cooler temps expected this week. ✅📊 Crop conditions held mostly steady, with corn at 68% good/excellent and soybeans at 66%, both above their averages. Winter wheat slipped to 26% good/excellent (well below average) while harvest is moving at its fastest pace since 2012. 💰📑 The CFTC's COT report showed funds turning more bearish on corn and soybeans last week. Managed money grew its corn net short to 49k contracts (largest since early Feb) and cut soybean net longs to 54k (smallest since early Feb), while adding modestly to SRW wheat longs. 🇧🇷🌱 Brazilian soybean acreage is set to hit a record high, per AgRural, up 0.9% to 121.09 million acres. It'd be the 20th straight annual increase but the smallest gain in two decades, as high input costs and tighter credit slow expansion.

    17 min

  4. 3d ago

    Should We "Believe" the White House?? China Starts New Crop US Soybeans Purchases

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 China made its first purchase of new-crop US soybeans, snapping up 132,000mt alongside additional flash sales of corn to Mexico and soybeans to unknown destinations. This comes after the White House announced China would buy 25mmt of US soybeans annually over the next 3 years. ⚖️ CME has filed a lawsuit against the CFTC over its approval of Kalshi's perpetual futures, arguing the products should be regulated as swaps under Dodd-Frank rather than futures. CME shares have dropped ~9% since the approval as the new contracts have already generated over $5 billion in trading activity. 🌧️ Widespread rain (and some flooding) improved drought conditions across much of the Corn Belt, with just 13% of the region now in drought versus 36% at the start of the year. The High Plains, however, remains largely dry and continues to struggle. 🛢️ US-Iran peace talks made progress over the weekend with a 60-day roadmap and a new direct communication line, even as Iran claimed the Strait of Hormuz was closed again. CENTCOM says the strait remains open, and WTI crude is trading lower near $75/bbl despite the back-and-forth. 🌾 Fertilizer prices are sliding as the Middle East war premium fades, with benchmark urea prices down ~50% from their April peak. Weak farmer demand and China's plan to resume exports are adding further pressure, though phosphate prices stay elevated on a sulfur shortage. 📦 Corn export sales rose 16% week-over-week with Spain as the top buyer, while soybean sales beat expectations at 424,900mt behind strong Egyptian demand. New-crop wheat sales came in softer, down 40% from the prior week, with Japan leading purchases. 🐄 Friday's Cattle on Feed report was largely neutral, with on-feed totals up 2% year-over-year even as placements and marketings ran below last year's levels. The bigger story remains the historically low US cattle herd, setting up for tighter supplies until rebuilding eventually kicks in.

    20 min

  5. Jun 18

    SHOCK Report: US to Lose 30 MILLION Corn Acres

    Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/ Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095 Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG 🌽📉 A new report warns the US could lose around 30 million corn acres by 2050. Weak feed demand and an ethanol blend rate stuck at 10% are largely to blame. ⛽🚗 If the ethanol blend rate doesn't increase, the US stands to lose 6.6 billion gallons of ethanol demand by 2050 as overall gasoline use declines. The Senate is now preparing to vote on E15 legislation after the House narrowly passed a similar bill in May. 📊🌾 S&P Global Energy completed the study, and one US farmer summed it up simply: too much supply chasing too little demand. See graphics from the report below, and click the link to view the full report. 🌪️⚠️ Severe weather moved through parts of the Midwest last night, with tornadoes confirmed near Harpers Ferry, IA and Charleston, IL. Surrounding areas also experienced heavy winds and hail. 🌧️🗺️ A band stretching from central Iowa through central Illinois and into Indiana picked up 1"–3" of rain in the 24 hours ended at midnight. See rain maps below. 🫘🦠 Excessive rainfall across the Midwest and Delta has led to soybean disease pressure, including Rhizoctonia and Pythium. Parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Indiana, Tennessee, and other states have seen over 8" of rain in the last 30 days. 📈🌾 Grain markets finished higher on Wednesday, with wheat futures leading the charge. The Jul26 HRW contract gained nearly 19 cents to close near $6.53/bu, while Dec26 corn gained more than 6 cents to close near $4.49/bu. 🇨🇳🫘 Rumors of Chinese interest in US grains helped support Wednesday's rally. USDA confirmed a flash sale of 372,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, which many see as a possible confirmation of that Chinese demand.

    22 min

  6. Jun 17

    Soybeans Jump on Talk of China Re-Entering US Market

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Soybeans lead on China optimism Soybean futures rallied Tuesday, with Nov ’26 up ~12¢ to ~$11.47 (two-week high) amid rumors China may return to the U.S. market. Optimism was also fueled by a potential September visit from Xi Jinping to Washington. Corn futures were mixed, pressured by weaker crude and favorable weather, while Chicago wheat rose on short-covering and technical buying; Kansas City wheat slipped. 🌎 USMCA talks add uncertainty to trade outlook U.S. and Mexican officials are meeting in Washington this week to negotiate the future of USMCA, focusing on agriculture and energy. Tensions rose after President Trump संकेत he may not renew the deal. Mexico and Canada accounted for $58.6B in U.S. ag exports in 2025 (over one-third of the total), making the outcome critical—especially as China remains an inconsistent buyer. Another round of talks is set for mid-July in Mexico City. 🌧️ Weather mostly favorable, with storm risks The Corn Belt is expected to see widespread rainfall over the next 5–7 days, supporting crop development. However, heavier totals in parts of MO, IL, KY, IA, and IN could cause localized flooding. Severe storms are possible today (damaging winds, hail, tornado risk), while cooler-than-normal temps are expected over the next 6–10 days. ⛽ Biofuels seen as key to demand growth A study from S&P Global Energy highlights ethanol demand as the primary driver of corn usage growth (≈83% since 2000). Expanding E15 nationwide is viewed as the easiest path to boost demand, though Senate resistance remains. Without stronger biofuel demand, the report warns of a long-term oversupply in U.S. agriculture. 🌽 Acreage outlook edges higher S&P Global Commodity Insights raised its 2026 acreage forecasts: corn at 96M acres (+800K vs. prior) and soybeans at 85.3M (+300K). That compares to 95.2M corn and 83.4M soybean acres last year. USDA last pegged 2026 acreage at 95.3M (corn) and 84.7M (beans), with updated figures due June 30.

    17 min

  7. Jun 16

    Corn and Soybean Ratings Climb Above Average

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Crop Conditions & Harvest Progress US crop conditions improved modestly last week. Corn ratings rose to 68% good-to-excellent, while soybeans increased to 66%, both slightly above average. Spring wheat saw a stronger jump to 55%, now above normal levels. Winter wheat improved to 27%, though it remains historically weak for this time of year. Harvest is moving quickly, with 25% complete—well ahead of both last week and last year’s pace. 📈 Markets Rally on Iran Deal Hopes Equity markets surged Monday on news of a preliminary US-Iran peace deal. The Dow hit a record high (+0.9%), while the S&P 500 (+1.7%) and Nasdaq (+3.1%) posted strong gains. Optimism around easing inflation and lower interest rate pressure drove the rally. Crude oil fell 4.8% to $80.75, though prices remain significantly higher year-over-year. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, lingering uncertainty and congestion could delay a full return to normal shipping. 🚢 Fertilizer Shipments Still Constrained Fertilizer logistics remain tight despite the potential reopening of the Strait. Shipowners are cautious, and fertilizer cargo is being deprioritized behind energy shipments. A backlog of vessels—including 40+ fertilizer ships—continues to clog the route, with flows still down roughly 90% since the conflict began. While prices have eased مؤخراً, US fertilizer costs remain elevated versus last year. 🛢️ NOPA Crush Mixed but Historically Strong NOPA reported a May soybean crush of 208.8 million bushels—down slightly from April but still a record for the month and up 8.3% year-over-year. The decline was tied to seasonal maintenance downtime. Soybean oil stocks dropped sharply to 1.74 billion pounds, a five-month low and below expectations, signaling tighter near-term supply. 🚢 Export Demand Remains Solid US corn export inspections fell to 1.6 mmt but remain robust overall. Soybean shipments were strong at 522,687 mt, up sharply week-over-week and more than doubling last year’s pace, though China accounted for just 26%. Wheat exports disappointed at 334,292 mt, trailing expectations and running below last year. 🐛 Screwworm Outbreak Expands, Supports Cattle The New World screwworm outbreak has spread into west-central Texas, with cases now confirmed across multiple counties and species. Containment challenges persist due to limited sterile fly production, raising concern about further spread. The situation is indirectly supporting cattle prices, as movement restrictions tighten already constrained supply.

    19 min

  8. Jun 15

    Tentative US-Iran Peace Deal Reached!

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 Geopolitics 🤝 The U.S. and Iran reached a tentative deal to end the war. The agreement includes releasing $25B in assets and lifting oil sanctions, while Iran commits to no nuclear weapons. 🚢 Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, and the U.S. will lift its naval blockade. More details are expected in follow-up talks, with the deal set to be signed Friday. 🌽 Grain Markets 🟡 Soybeans slipped (Nov ’26: $11.32, -2¢) under pressure from good weather and weaker crude. 🌽 Corn rebounded late (Dec ’26: ~$4.40, +1¢) but still faces headwinds from energy markets, favorable weather, and big South American crop expectations. 🌾 Wheat also moved lower on ample global supplies. 🌦️ Weather ⛈️ Severe storms swept the Corn Belt over the weekend, bringing heavy rain, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Some areas saw flooding. 🌡️ Temps stay above normal this week (not extreme), with more scattered rain ahead—heaviest in central and eastern areas. Overall tone remains bearish for grains. 📊 Funds (CFTC) 🐻 Funds turned net short corn (sold 121k contracts), the largest sell-off since May ’25. 🌱 Soybean longs shrank (sold 58k), now the smallest since February. 🌾 Wheat also saw selling (23k contracts). 🥩 Cattle 🏭 JBS is closing plants in Pennsylvania and Memphis, shifting cattle elsewhere. 🐄 With the herd at a 75-year low, tight supplies are driving record cattle prices and heavy packer losses. ⚖️ Short term: too much capacity vs. cattle. Long term: less capacity is negative for the industry.

    19 min
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out of 5
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About

Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

Information

  • Creator
    Joe Vaclavik
  • Years Active
    2020 - 2026
  • Episodes
    1.7K
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Grain Markets and Other Stuff
  • Show Website
    Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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