David Turver, an Energy Analyst from the UK, stops by the Energy News Beat Podcast. With the spotlight on the world stage around the price of oil, the world is bifurcating into two camps. Those going after Energy Security Starts at home, and the other camp is tripling down on Green Energy and Deindustrialization. I do not know how the Iran conflict will turn out, but I feel that if the Venezuelan-style controls are put in place and the Iranians can set up a government, there is hope. That would cut out billions of dollars annually to the proxy fighters in the Middle East, funded by China’s insatiable demand for oil. David’s Substack is a great resource for information on the UK grid system. In the article Levelised Cost of Energy Models are Junk, he really outlines how Fake LCOE model results are being used to poison the debate about the cost of renewables. For our Substack subscribers fighting local wind or solar farms, this may help, as we all need to ask the right questions. The thing that struck me most in the article was how the numbers are made up and changed to fit the narrative. It is the same thing that has been done to the United States grid system, as we need to redefine the Levelized Cost of Energy to have wind, solar, and even hydrogen have storage tied to their projects. With recycling and end-of-life projects funded and bonded. 1. Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Models & Their FlawsThe core topic of the podcast centers on how LCOE models used by organizations like IRENA, Lazard, and government agencies significantly underestimate the true cost of renewable energy. David Turber argues these models are “junk” because they: Use unrealistically low capital expenditure estimatesAssume artificially high load factors (capacity utilization rates)Ignore grid integration, storage, and decommissioning costsApply lower costs of capital to renewables than to fossil fuelsReal-world example: IRENA estimates onshore wind at £25/MWh, but actual 2024 UK auction prices were £72/MWh—nearly three times higher. 2. Renewable Energy Economics & Hidden CostsThe discussion reveals that renewable energy projects rely heavily on subsidies and have significant undisclosed expenses: Decommissioning costs are not properly funded; companies reduce asset values rather than setting aside cash reservesNameplate upgrades in the US use subsidy money to replace turbine components, artificially extending project lifespansLand reclamation liability for wind farms in the US totals ~$89 billion and isn’t factored into LCOE calculationsWind farms become uneconomical after ~15 years when subsidies end and maintenance costs rise 3. Grid Reliability & Intermittency IssuesThe speakers highlight critical problems with integrating intermittent renewables: Gas plants must constantly “spin up and spin down” to compensate for wind/solar variability, causing extra wear and maintenance costsGrid balancing and curtailment payments (paying generators not to produce) are not included in renewable cost modelsTexas ERCOT has 85 GW peak demand but 180 GW nameplate capacity due to wind/solar overbuilding—requiring expensive grid infrastructure upgradesAI data centers demand dedicated, reliable power, which renewables cannot provide without nuclear backup 4. Energy Security & Geopolitical ImplicationsThe conversation shifts to how energy policy affects national security and economic competitiveness: UK/EU deindustrialization: Closing refineries, petrochemical plants, and steel mills due to high energy costsDependency on imports: The UK now imports 50-60% of jet fuel and diesel; refineries in California dropped from 38 to 7, with 6 more slated to closeChina’s energy dominance: Building 150 GW of nuclear capacity by 2035 while increasing domestic drillingLiving standards decline: UK GDP per capita has fallen below that of Louisiana (the poorest US state) 5. Government Policy FailuresDavid an I have fun while we criticize UK and EU energy policies: Renewable Obligations scheme: Provides indexed subsidies that exceed initial capital costs, making projects profitable only through subsidiesContract for Difference scheme: Early projects are nearly as expensive as older renewable obligationsCarbon pricing: Artificially inflates gas costs through target-consistent pricing, making renewables appear cheaper than they arePolitical resistance to change: Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is criticized for ignoring evidence and pursuing ideological policies that harm the economy 6. Alternative Energy Solutions Being IgnoredWe note that other countries are pursuing pragmatic energy strategies: China & Japan: Restarting coal plants and building nuclear capacityGermany: Ironically flooding coal mines after closing nuclear plantsUS shale gas: Provides cheap, abundant energy that the UK refuses to developNuclear power: Presented as the only reliable, carbon-free solution that can support AI data centers and grid stability 7. Economic & Political ConsequencesThe discussion concludes with warnings about the long-term impact: Energy costs driving industrial collapse and job lossesReduced competitiveness in manufacturing, steel, fertilizers, and defenseGrowing political awareness of the problem, but only among opposition partiesRisk of energy crisis as aging gas infrastructure cannot be economically replaced while still being essential for grid stabilityThe overarching theme that David has brought to light is that renewable energy policies, driven by flawed cost models and ideological commitment, are economically damaging and strategically dangerous without addressing grid reliability, storage, and the role of nuclear power. Check out https://theenergynewsbeat.substack.com/p/levelised-cost-of-energy-models-are Check out the Energy News Beat SubStack https://theenergynewsbeat.substack.com/ A shout-out to Steve Reese and the Reese Energy Consulting group for sponsoring the Podcast https://reeseenergyconsulting.com/. Data2 if you have any business systems, can you trust A? Well, they have the patent on validation. . https://data2.zoholandingpage.com/energy And we have WellDatabase rolling in as a new sponsor. https://welldatabase.com/
