The Ecom Scaling Show

Free To Grow CFO & Aplo Group

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Welcome to the Ecom Scaling Show, brought to you by Free To Grow CFO and Aplo Group. Scaling DTC brands isn’t just about growth—it’s about profitable growth. Join hosts Jon Blair (Founder at Free To Grow CFO) and Dylan Byers (Founding Partner at Aplo Group) as they close the gap between finance and marketing in DTC e-commerce.

3D AGO

Stop Fixing Your Ad Account. Fix This Instead

Welcome to the Ecom Scaling Show, brought to you by Free To Grow CFO and Aplo Group! Join hosts Jon Blair (Founder, Free To Grow CFO) and Dylan Byers (Co-founder, Aplo Group) as they dive into the most challenging phase of growing a brand: what to do when customer acquisition stops working. In Episode 42, Jon and Dylan reveal why you absolutely must measure new customer profitability separately from returning customers, why "button-clicking" in Facebook Ads Manager is now a waste of time, and how poor unit economics before CAC are usually the real culprit. If your ROAS is dropping, your CAC is rising, or you feel stuck trying to scale beyond a single winning product, this episode provides a clear, CFO-level framework for identifying the true bottleneck and getting back to profitable growth. Timestamps: 0:27 - "I Got 99 Problems and Acquisition is One" 01:14 - Separating New vs. Returning Customer Profitability 02:29 - Low LTV & Lack of Offer Diversification 04:44 - The Danger of Constantly Cycling Teams 06:04 - The Real Culprit: Poor Unit Economics Before CAC 08:40 - The "Race to Zero" & Why You Must Constantly Improve CAC to LTV 13:52 - Obsessing Over Media Buying Tactics 16:36 - What Actually Matters Now: Strategy, Creative, and Target Setting 17:40 - What to Do When You Are Actively Losing Money 20:00 - The CFO Audit: When You Actually Aren't Spending Enough 21:23 - Scaling Broken Unit Economics 22:00 - Cutting OPEX to Buy Time 24:35 - Final Thoughts Free To Grow CFO: ⁠https://freetogrowcfo.com/⁠ Aplo Group: ⁠https://www.aplogroup.com/⁠ Jon Blair on LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathon-albert-blair/⁠ Dylan Byers on LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/dylan-byers-046010149/⁠ ⁠#ecommerce⁠ ⁠#dtc⁠ ⁠#finance⁠ ⁠#agency⁠ ⁠#podcast⁠ ⁠#shopify⁠ ⁠#ads⁠ ⁠#scalingyourbrand⁠ ⁠#demandplanning⁠ ⁠#inventory⁠ ⁠#shopifyplus⁠

26 min
FEB 20

The Worst Ways To Use Debt In E-Commerce (Avoid These Mistakes)

Welcome to the Ecom Scaling Show, brought to you by Free To Grow CFO and Aplo Group! Join hosts Jon Blair (Founder, Free To Grow CFO) and Dylan Byers (Co-founder, Aplo Group) as they dive into the high-stakes world of business leverage and debt financing. In Episode 41, Jon and Dylan play a game called "Should You Finance This?" to determine exactly when e-commerce brands should use debt versus when it becomes a dangerous trap. With platforms like Shopify Capital making debt accessible to almost everyone, the hosts break down the specific rules for financing Ad Spend, Inventory, R&D, Hiring, and even Equity Buyouts. They explain the critical difference between "float" (trade payables) and actual debt, why you should never finance assets you can't hand back to the bank (the collateral rule), and the behavioral danger of using debt to "go bigger" than your data supports. If you are considering taking a loan to grow your business, this episode provides a strict CFO checklist to ensure you don't over-leverage your future. Timestamps: 00:20 - The "Should You Finance This?" Game 01:55 - Round 1: Should You Finance Ad Spend? 04:00 - The Difference Between "Float" (Credit Cards) and Debt 05:40 - Round 2: Financing R&D and New Product Launches 06:00 - Why Inventory is the Most Common Use of Debt 09:00 - The "Collateral Rule": Can You Hand the Asset Back? 10:55 - Round 3: Financing CapEx (Equipment & Machinery) 13:45 - Round 4: Should You Use Debt to Hire Staff? 16:55 - Round 5: Financing Equity Buyouts & Acquisitions 19:50 - The SBA Loan Trap: Undercapitalizing Working Capital 22:45 - Best Practices: The Behavioral Trap of "Going Bigger" 25:15 - Final Thoughts: Matching Debt to Confidence Levels Free To Grow CFO: https://freetogrowcfo.com/ Aplo Group: https://www.aplogroup.com/ Jon Blair on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathon-albert-blair/ Dylan Byers on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dylan-byers-046010149/

26 min
FEB 15

5 Inventory Planning Traps That Kill Profitable Brands

Welcome to the Ecom Scaling Show, brought to you by Free To Grow CFO and Aplo Group! Join hosts Jon Blair (Founder, Free To Grow CFO) and Dylan Byers (Co-founder, Aplo Group) as they reveal the high-stakes nature of inventory planning and break down the most common traps that cause even profitable brands to “financially blow up.” In Episode 40, Jon and Dylan tackle the silent killer of e-commerce businesses: Inventory Planning. This isn't just about ordering stock; it's about managing the massive financial leverage inherent in holding physical goods. Jon and Dylan break down the most common traps scaling brands fall into, such as betting too big on new product launches, misaligning debt maturity with inventory turnover, and the dangerous disconnect between marketing targets and inventory realities. If you have ever felt anxious about placing a large PO or struggled to balance historical data with future growth goals, this episode provides a clear, CFO-level way to think about risk, cash flow, and long-term durability. Timestamps: 0:26 - Why Inventory is the "Silent Killer" in DTC 01:15 - Trap 1: The Disconnect Between Marketing Strategy & Inventory Buys 01:50 - Trap 2: Betting Too Big on New Products (The Liquidity Trap) 03:00 - Trap 3: "Intervention" vs. "Momentum" Forecasts 03:50 - Trap 4: Misaligning Debt Maturity with Inventory Turnover 04:40 - The "Break-Even ROAS" Danger Zone 06:50 - The "Margin of Safety" Concept 09:00 - When to Trust Historical Data vs. When to Ignore It 11:30 - The "Pre-Mortem" Strategy: Planning for Disaster Before It Happens 13:20 - Why You Must Be Willing to Run Out of Stock 14:40 - Trap 5: Blindly Copying Last Year's Product Mix 6:00 - Trap 6: Ignoring Complementary Items & Bundle Complexity 17:00 - The Multi-Warehouse Fulfillment Nightmare 20:50 - Trap 7: The "Soft Close" – Validating Supply Before Calculating POs 23:40 - How to Align Marketing Contribution Targets with Inventory Position 26:00 - Building Durability 29:00 - Final Thoughts: Managing the Leverage Risk of E-commerce Free To Grow CFO: https://freetogrowcfo.com/ Aplo Group: https://www.aplogroup.com/ Jon Blair on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathon-albert-blair/ Dylan Byers on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dylan-byers-046010149/

31 min
FEB 2

5 Ways To Build Wealth as an Ecom Founder (Without Selling Your Brand)

Welcome to the Ecom Scaling Show, brought to you by Free To Grow CFO and Aplo Group! Join hosts Jon Blair (Founder, Free To Grow CFO) and Dylan Byers (Co-founder, Aplo Group) as they challenge the “exit” myth and detail a timeless 5-step process for building personal wealth through your business. In Episode 39, Jon and Dylan challenge the common misconception that the only path to wealth in e-commerce is exiting for a massive multiple. With the “asset bubble” of the pandemic era behind us, the hosts lay out a timeless, 5-step process for using a brand to generate personal wealth while you still own it. If you have ever felt frustrated by seeing profit on your P&L while your bank account remains empty,, or struggled to determine how much cash you can safely take home without throttling growth,, this episode provides a clear, CFO-level guide to extracting liquid wealth from your brand Timestamps: 0:27 - Building Wealth Without Exiting 02:05 - Step 1: Engineering Profitable Unit Economics 02:40 - The 50% Variable Margin Benchmark 05:36 - Accounting for Channel-Specific Variable Costs 06:30 - Step 2: Scaling Unit Profit to Company Profit 07:00 - The High LTV Game vs. The Durable Goods Game 10:00 - Controlling Variable Costs at Scale 13:30 - Step 3: Optimizing the Balance Sheet for Cash Flow 15:15 - The “Profitable but Broke” Paradox Explained 16:10 - Understanding the Cash Conversion Cycle 16:55 - Strategy: Negotiating Payables Days with Suppliers 19:40 - Step 4: Distributing Cash Flow to Owners 21:00 - Determining How Much Idle Cash to Hold 22:45 - Salary vs. Quarterly Profit Distributions 24:50 - Step 5: Deploying Cash into Outside Assets 26:10 - Implementing the “Profit First” Mentality 28:45 - Jon’s 3 Rules for Investing Outside the Business 30:35 - The Importance of Personal Liquidity & Emergency Funds 31:56 - Final Thoughts: Revenue Durability & Episode Summary Free To Grow CFO: https://freetogrowcfo.com/ Aplo Group: https://www.aplogroup.com/ Jon Blair on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathon-albert-blair/ Dylan Byers on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dylan-byers-046010149/

34 min
JAN 26

The 2026 Ecom Growth Playbook: Scaling from $5M to $50M Sustainably

Welcome to the Ecom Scaling Show, brought to you by Free To Grow CFO and Aplo Group! Join hosts Jon Blair (Founder, Free To Grow CFO) and Dylan Byers (Co-founder, Aplo Group) as they break down the high-leverage growth strategies that will define success for ecommerce brands in 2026. In Episode 38, Jon and Dylan explain why growth strategy opportunities going into 2026 require a shift in mindset—from merely acquiring customers to optimizing the relationship between CAC and LTV. This episode walks through how to balance first-order profitability with long-term cohort value, using tactics like "buy more, save more" offers, high-frequency product drops, and cash-flow-focused inventory management. If your brand feels like profit is whittling away as you scale ad spend, this episode provides a practical framework for using offer testing and sensitivity analysis to make better decisions and scale with clarity, control, and confidence. Timestamps 00:00 – Introduction: Growth Strategy Opportunities for 2026 00:41 – The Two Buckets: High LTV vs. High SKU Count Stores 01:04 – Strategy 1: CAC to LTV Optimization for Replenishable Brands 01:48 – Strategy 2: "Buy More, Save More" Mechanics for High SKU Stores 02:15 – The Margin Trap: When Ad Spend Whittles Away New Customer Profit 03:04 – Increasing Gross Margin Dollars per Order via Thoughtful Bundling 05:41 – The Unit Economics Trend: Thinking Beyond Day-One Profitability 06:33 – Scaling via Multi-Sales Channels vs. Creating Durable Product Needs 07:56 – Why Launching More Expensive Items Often Beats Low-Margin Accessories 08:55 – Strategy 3: Increasing the Volume of New Product Drops 12:50 – Power Laws in Products: Why a 10-20% Hit Rate is Actually a Win 13:28 – Strategy 4: Cash Flow Focus to Drive Profitability 15:05 – Liquidation Functions: Solving the DTC Overstock Challenge 16:04 – Ad-Spend Arbitrage: Using Ads to Recover COGS on Stale Inventory 18:24 – Speculation vs. Data: How Much to Bet on Future Renewal Paths 19:40 – Conclusion: Understanding the ICP and Felt Needs to Scale in 2026 Free To Grow CFO: https://freetogrowcfo.com/ Aplo Group: https://www.aplogroup.com/ Jon Blair on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathon-albert-blair/ Dylan Byers on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dylan-byers-046010149/

33 min
JAN 19

Is Annual Forecasting Actually “Useful” for $10M-$50M Brands?

Welcome to the Ecom Scaling Show, brought to you by Free To Grow CFO and Aplo Group! Join hosts Jon Blair (Founder, Free To Grow CFO) and Dylan Byers (Co-founder, Aplo Group) as they break down why annual planning is one of the most important disciplines in DTC ecommerce. In Episode 37, Jon and Dylan explain why brands that skip proper annual planning often feel busy but directionless, while brands that plan well are able to scale with clarity, control, and confidence. This episode walks through how annual planning connects financial targets, marketing strategy, inventory decisions, and cash flow into a single operating plan. If your brand feels reactive, constantly adjusting targets, or surprised by cash issues, this episode provides a practical framework for using annual planning as a tool to make better decisions throughout the year, not just once during budgeting season. 00:00 Intro 01:31 Why annual planning actually matters for DTC brands 04:13 Goals versus forecasting 05:03 Navigating goal plans versus unbiased forecasts 09:23 P&L Planning: The sales forecast 10:26 The three core pillars of sales forecasting 13:34 Using forecasts to negotiate unit costs and vendor leverage 16:42 Fixed overhead and headcount planning 19:48 Hiring strategy: Immediate needs versus milestone-based hires 20:30 Fixed overhead benchmarks and human capital leverage 26:13 Balance sheet and demand planning 29:05 Assessing supply chain layers and capacity risks 32:05 Managing funding constraints and capital structure 35:41 Pitching growth plans to vendors for better terms 37:18 Final takeaways: Assessing relationships, economics, and risk 38:25 Conclusion and looking ahead to 2026 Free To Grow CFO: https://freetogrowcfo.com/ Aplo Group: https://www.aplogroup.com/ Jon Blair on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathon-albert-blair/ Dylan Byers on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dylan-byers-046010149/

39 min
JAN 9

How to Grow as a $10M-$50M Ecommerce Brand in 2026

Welcome to the Ecom Scaling Show, brought to you by Free To Grow CFO and Aplo Group! Join hosts Jon Blair (Founder, Free To Grow CFO) and Dylan Byers (Co-founder, Aplo Group) as they break down where DTC ecommerce is heading next and what founders need to do now to stay ahead. In Episode 36, Jon and Dylan share their predictions for DTC in 2026, based on what they are seeing across dozens of brands operating at different stages of scale. This episode focuses on how profitability expectations are changing, how paid media and acquisition strategies are evolving, and why operational discipline will matter more than ever. They discuss what happens as easy growth continues to disappear, how brands will be forced to rethink CAC, contribution margin, and inventory risk, and why the gap between well run businesses and fragile ones is only going to widen. If you are a founder trying to plan beyond the next quarter and want a realistic view of what scaling a DTC brand will look like in 2026, this episode gives you a grounded, operator level perspective instead of hype or trend chasing. Timestamps 00:00 Why looking ahead to 2026 matters for DTC founders 02:20 How the definition of a “good” DTC business is changing 05:10 Profitability expectations going into the next cycle 08:00 Why easy growth is not coming back 11:15 The future of paid media and acquisition efficiency 14:30 How CAC, contribution margin, and scale will be judged 18:10 Inventory, cash flow, and operational discipline in 2026 21:40 Why weaker brands will struggle to survive 25:00 What strong brands will do differently over the next two years 28:30 Predictions for agencies, creatives, and media buying 31:45 Capital efficiency and founder decision making 35:10 Final predictions and what founders should focus on now Free To Grow CFO: https://freetogrowcfo.com/ Aplo Group: https://www.aplogroup.com/ Jon Blair on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathon-albert-blair/ Dylan Byers on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dylan-byers-046010149/

30 min
JAN 4

Is Media Buying Getting Replaced by Demand Planning?

Welcome to the Ecom Scaling Show, brought to you by Free To Grow CFO and Aplo Group! Join hosts Jon Blair (Founder, Free To Grow CFO) and Dylan Byers (Co-founder, Aplo Group) as they break down how inventory planning directly impacts cash flow, profitability, and the ability to scale a DTC brand. In Episode 35, Jon and Dylan walk through how inventory planning actually works for growing e-commerce brands and why it is one of the biggest hidden constraints on cash flow and growth. Rather than treating inventory as a pure operations problem, this episode reframes it as a financial decision that must be aligned with marketing performance and margin structure. They explain how to forecast demand realistically, how paid media and growth rate influence inventory risk, and why both overbuying and underbuying create costly downstream problems. This episode provides a practical, CFO level framework for planning inventory in a way that supports sustainable growth instead of slowing it down. 00:00 Why inventory planning is one of the biggest growth constraints 02:10 Common inventory mistakes growing DTC brands make 04:45 Inventory as a cash flow and finance problem 07:20 Forecasting demand without overengineering models 10:05 How growth rate and marketing volatility impact inventory 12:50 Lead times, reorder points, and safety stock fundamentals 15:40 The real cost of stockouts vs excess inventory 18:30 Planning inventory for hero SKUs vs secondary products 21:20 How contribution margin should guide inventory decisions 24:10 Inventory risk at different stages of scale 26:45 When it makes sense to intentionally take inventory risk 29:30 Pressure testing inventory plans before committing cash 32:20 Inventory planning mistakes that stall otherwise healthy brands 34:50 Final inventory principles for sustainable scaling Free To Grow CFO: https://freetogrowcfo.com/ Aplo Group: https://www.aplogroup.com/ Jon Blair on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathon-albert-blair/ Dylan Byers on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dylan-byers-046010149/

36 min

Welcome to the Ecom Scaling Show, brought to you by Free To Grow CFO and Aplo Group. Scaling DTC brands isn’t just about growth—it’s about profitable growth. Join hosts Jon Blair (Founder at Free To Grow CFO) and Dylan Byers (Founding Partner at Aplo Group) as they close the gap between finance and marketing in DTC e-commerce.

Creator

Free To Grow CFO & Aplo Group
Years Active

2025 - 2026
Episodes

42