Top Traders Unplugged Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how quant managers compared to discretionary managers in 2020, Winton Capital’s underperformance and resulting loss of AUM, the pressure for successful Trend Following firms to expand into different investment styles, why March & December 2020 were generally the best for Trend Followers despite being so different, how a portfolio combining a few historically successful Trend Following firms has proven to be a very potent investment strategy, navigating negative interest rate environments, how to look at Sharpe Ratios effectively, and how to calculate the ‘Serenity Ratio’ of various strategies.

If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.

Check out our Global Macro series here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels & Rob on Twitter:

@TopTradersLive  & @InvestingIdiocy

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆



Episode Summary

0:00 - Intro

3:07 - Macro recap from Niels

3:59 - Weekly review of returns

47:20 - Q1; Michael: How many truly diversifying instruments are there, globally?

54:42 - Q2; Bruno: As a futures trader, how do you recommend I manage the cash part of my portfolio?

1:02:30 - Q3; Kyle: What are your thoughts on scaling in and out of positions?

1:08:46 - Q4; Craig: How can Trend Following take advantage of a ‘risk aversion’ environment?

1:14:37 - Performance recap

1:08:45 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Matt Levine's articles Bloomberg, The RInger Podcast: 'Gamblers' & Tim Harford's Cautionary Tales Podcast on the COVID Vaccine

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In this episode, we conclude our special 2-part series on how to design a Trend Following system, with a deeper dive into some performance statistics over the last couple of decades, including correlations, drawdowns and how different market environments have impacted our system.  We also touch on how to add some ‘personality’ to a fully algorithmic trading system.

If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.

Check out our Global Macro series here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter:

@TopTradersLive 

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆



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In today’s special episode, we go into some depth about how to design a robust and profitable Trend Following program.  We also cover topics such as why having an opinion on any of your trading positions can be a bad idea, how Trend Following returns can vary massively with just a slight shift in portfolio weightings, the benefits of having a unique approach to the markets, and why longer-term trading may be more profitable than short-term trading.

If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.

Check out our Global Macro series here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels on Twitter:

@TopTradersLive 

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆



Episode Summary

0:00 - Intro

1:37 - A thank-you to our hosts, previous guests, production team, and all listeners of the show

3:35 - 2020 Macro recap from Niels

6:51 - How to think about trading and system development

31:59 - Performance recap

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Today we welcome back Jerry Parker onto the show to discuss the possible long-term breakout of commodity prices, trading Tesla around its inclusion into the S&P 500 index, carrying out non-system trades, Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, the importance of staying in some of these long-awaited trends, relying on your backtest regardless of the circumstances, why long-only buy & hold funds might not deserve many plaudits this year, the perfect time to make adjustments to your system, and why it can be a good idea to avoid being too skeptical in the markets.

If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.

Check out our Global Macro series here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels, Moritz & Jerry on Twitter:

@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, & @RJParkerJr09

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆



Episode Summary

0:00 - Intro

1:28 - Macro recap from Niels

4:13 - Weekly review of returns

12:34 - What is risk management?

57:50 - Q1; Michael: When you trade foreign instruments, do you trade them in their native currencies?

1:00:54 - Q2; Jim: Does the need for diversification outweigh the benefits of concentrated gains?

1:14:37 - Performance recap

1:08:45 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Hidden Forces podcast, Kyle Bass on the Macro Voices Podcast & Jack Schwager on the Systematic Investor Podcast

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Special guest Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show today to discuss how Trend Following strategies performed during this very unusual year, the likeliest safe-haven assets of 2021, whether or not 2020 should be a year that brings about new adjustments to your trading systems, how being nimble can increase robustness, Trend Following as a ‘store of value’, whether the context of financial & world news should be important to systematic trading, the disconnect between financial assets & the real-world economy, and we also attempt to explain the returns dispersion found among similar strategies this year.

Check out Mark’s blog here.

If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.

Check out our Global Macro series here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels, Moritz & Mark on Twitter:

@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, & @MrZepczynski

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆



Episode Summary

0:00 - Intro

1:17 - Macro recap from Niels

2:40 - Weekly review of returns

13:15 - Moritz: What do you see the narrative for 2021 Trend Following strategies will be?

27:07 - Niels: How would your performance look this year if you took out the 2 biggest winners?

53:09 - Trend Following as a store of value

1:07:42 - Performance recap

1:08:32 - Jerry Parker joins us on the show next week. Send in any questions you may have.

1:08:45 - Recommended listening or reading: In Defense of Trouble Makers by Charlan Jeanne Nemeth & A Deflationary World with Jeff Boothe on the Investors Podcast Network

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Today, we discuss why a random calendar year is not a good measure of performance, recent increased volatility in alternative markets, how to define an ‘alternative’ market, the strong case for a mixed portfolio of stocks & Trend Following strategies, how to perform the easy-money Bitcoin trade, the benefits of using and investing in Bitcoin, trading the Chinese futures markets, and why a Trend Following system would have entered you into a Tesla position without the need for any predictions.

If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.

Check out our Global Macro series here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:

@TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆



Episode Summary

0:00 - Intro

2:15 - Macro recap from Niels

5:14 - Weekly review of returns

52:51 - Q1; Fernando: How have your views on position sizing evolved over the years?  What are your thoughts on managing drawdowns?

1:03:18 - Performance recap

1:06:10 - Recommended podcast listening this week: Rishi Narang on the Chat With Traders Podcast & Keith McCullough on The Felder Report podcast

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