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RFI goes behind-the-scenes of one of the week's major stories.

  1. 3 DAYS AGO

    'War with no winners': Middle East crisis enters a dangerous new phase

    Even as Washington hints at a quick end to the war with Iran, analysts say Tehran is preparing for a longer strategic struggle. The Middle East is in the grip of a widening conflict following joint US and Israeli strikes across Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory attacks. While US president Donald Trump has suggested the war could end soon, many analysts and regional actors see the trajectory very differently. For them, the escalation risks pulling the region into a deeper and more dangerous phase. The European Council on Foreign Relations has warned that the confrontation could become a war with no winners, raising humanitarian risks inside Iran and threatening to destabilise an already fragile region. According to the foreign policy think tank, the latest conflict also risks drawing in global powers such as Russia and China while spreading across multiple theatres, from the Mediterranean to the Gulf. Julien Barnes-Dacey, Middle East and North Africa programme director at the ECFR, says the conflict has already passed the point of easy containment. “We’re already at that moment,” he told RFI. “The conflict has quickly expanded and Iran - from the outset - has been intent on demonstrating that this could not be a containable war.” Conflict spreads across the Middle East as Iran names new supreme leader Regional escalation gathers pace Tehran’s response has been shaped by a clear strategic calculation – to raise the cost of confrontation and widen the battlefield. According to Barnes-Dacey, the Iranian leadership has deliberately sought to show that any attempt to weaken or topple the regime would trigger a regional backlash. “Iran has been intent on demonstrating that the price of attacking Iran – the price of trying to bring down the regime – would be a conflict that would engulf the entire region,” he said. That approach has already begun to play out across the region. Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon and Iraq have mobilised, while tensions have intensified between Israel and Hezbollah. In Lebanon, Barnes-Dacey says the situation is particularly volatile, with Israel sharply increasing its attacks and speculation growing about a possible ground incursion. Meanwhile, Washington is reportedly exploring additional pressure points against Tehran, including outreach to Kurdish actors who have had an uneasy and often transactional relationship with the US in the past. The result is a conflict that is becoming structurally wider, involving proxy forces and regional actors whose involvement could deepen the crisis. One week into Iran war, the dangers for the US and Trump multiply Strategic vacuum Despite the expanding military campaign, analysts say the political endgame remains unclear. Barnes-Dacey describes the current US strategy as deeply inconsistent. “It’s clearly a mess,” he said. “Both in terms of tactics and strategy we seem to be facing a real kind of vacuum at the heart of the US operation.” According to him, Washington’s stated goals have shifted repeatedly,  ranging from limiting Iran’s missile capabilities to pursuing regime change. At times the administration has spoken about a prolonged war, only for Trump to suggest shortly afterwards that the conflict could soon be over. This uncertainty may also reflect strategic differences between Washington and Israel. While the US president may be reluctant to become trapped in a long conflict, Barnes-Dacey says Israel appears more determined to fundamentally weaken – or even break – the Iranian regime. That divergence matters because Iran is not a small or easily subdued country. With a population of more than 90 million and extensive regional connections, any attempt to push the Iranian state towards collapse could have far-reaching consequences. “A state collapse goal would be devastating,” Barnes-Dacey warned, pointing to the potential for regional instability, migration pressures and broader security fallout. Deterrence through resistance For Tehran, the response appears rooted less in ideology than in strategic logic. Iranian leaders believe that making concessions under pressure could invite further attacks in the future. “There does seem to be a sense that from the Iranian perspective they have to definitively draw a line in the sand,” Barnes-Dacey said. He added that rather than negotiate from a position of weakness, the regime wants to demonstrate that the cost of pursuing regime change will be prohibitively high. The goal is to restore deterrence and ensure the survival of the Islamic Republic. This strategy is already visible in the evolving military campaign. Early in the conflict, Iran launched large numbers of missiles at Israeli targets. Those barrages have since decreased – a shift that may partly reflect battlefield losses, but which Barnes-Dacey believes could also be deliberate. Instead of exhausting its arsenal quickly, Tehran may be conserving resources in order to sustain pressure over time. “We now seem to be in a war of attrition between the two sides,” he said. In that contest, the timelines differ sharply. Washington appears eager to limit the duration of the conflict, partly because of fears about energy prices and regional escalation. Iran, by contrast, may be prepared to prolong the confrontation in order to demonstrate resilience. Iran says European countries helped create conditions for US, Israeli attacks Europe on the sidelines For Europe, the conflict poses difficult political and economic dilemmas. Leaders across the continent have sought to strike a delicate diplomatic balance – expressing concern about escalation while avoiding open confrontation with Washington. Barnes-Dacey, however, is critical of that approach. “Irrelevant at best, disastrous at worst,” he said of the European response so far. He points out that many European governments have opted for cautious language, placing much of the blame on Iran while attempting to remain in the good graces of the Trump administration. That calculation is partly driven by concerns about other geopolitical priorities, including the war in Ukraine and economic relations with the US. Yet the conflict itself may ultimately carry heavy costs for Europe. Rising energy prices, instability along key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the diversion of military resources away from Ukraine could all have serious consequences. “The Europeans are desperately trying to tread carefully and keep Trump happy,” Barnes-Dacey said. “But they are not putting any real handbrakes on a conflict that could spiral even further out of control.” Who is Mojtaba Khamenei, the influential insider now leading Iran? Hardliners strengthened  Inside Iran itself, the war could also reshape the country’s political future. Rather than weakening the ruling system, Barnes-Dacey believes external military pressure may strengthen the most hardline elements of the regime. The new leadership emerging in Tehran – under the newly appointed Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei – is already seen as more closely aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Following the assassination of senior figures during the conflict, including Ayatolla Ali Khamenei, the incentive for compromise is likely to diminish further. “This conflict is only going to exacerbate and entrench hardline forces within the country,” Barnes-Dacey said. At the same time, ordinary Iranians face a grim reality – caught between an increasingly securitised state and an intensifying military campaign. “The Iranian people are suffering all through this,” he said, noting that bombardments have hit not only military targets but also infrastructure and state institutions. Those conditions make it unlikely that large-scale protest movements will emerge in the near term, despite earlier demonstrations against the regime. For now, the conflict appears to be entering a prolonged and uncertain phase. With both sides seeking leverage and no clear diplomatic pathway in sight, the question of how - or when - the fighting will end remains unanswered.

    13 min

  2. 5 MAR

    Turkey fears it will pick up the bill for Washington's war in Iran

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is intensifying diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war after an Iranian missile was shot down approaching Turkey. The country worries it could be among those most affected by the conflict, as rising oil prices threaten the nation’s fragile economy and a potential Iranian refugee wave looms. NATO forces on Wednesday tracked the Iranian ballistic missile through Iraq and Syria and intercepted it as it headed towards Turkey’s Hatay province – home to the Incirlik air base, where a large US Air Force presence is stationed, along with nuclear weapons. Alliance member Turkey also hosts a NATO radar base close to the Iranian border, operated by American forces. Despite the presence of US soldiers, up until this incident Turkey had not been targeted by Iran, with Ankara maintaining close ties with Tehran. The Turkish government summoned the Iranian ambassador to make a formal complaint immediately after the missile was shot down. But Tehran denies firing the missile. Iran’s armed forces have decentralised command and control under the so-called Mosaic defence doctrine following the killing of many of its senior military commanders. Serhan Afacan, head of the Centre for Iranian Studies, a research organisation in Ankara, suggests the attack could be the action of a local commander. "Some radicals within the Revolutionary Guards have said Turkey should be targeted like Iran’s Gulf neighbours," Afacan said. "The risk is always present, which is why Turkey keeps open communication with Iran." President Erdogan is redoubling diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict, while refusing US forces access to Turkish airspace for attacks on Iran. But Erdogan’s priority, according to political analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners, is protecting his relationship with US President Donald Trump.  "Erdogan has done what can be expected: he criticised Israel, but also condemned Iran for attacking Arab countries. He avoids mentioning Trump directly and has managed to preserve the relationship," Yesilada said. How the war in Iran is testing Europe’s US military base network Fears of Iranian exodus With the war escalating, Ankara’s primary concern is an overwhelming exodus of Iranian refugees. Turkey already hosts over 3 million Syrians and hundreds of thousands from Iraq and Afghanistan. Turkey’s 540 km border with Iran is protected by a concrete wall and razor wire, and the mountainous region is snowbound; few Iranians have so far sought refuge. However, Turkish international relations expert Soli Ozel says Ankara is fearful that the current trickle of people fleeing could turn into a flood, posing a significant threat to Turkey’s stability. "If Iran’s regime falls and turmoil follows, millions could flee. Syria’s civil war began with 23 million people; Iran’s population is 93 million," he warned. Last month, Turkish parliamentarians received a secret briefing on contingency plans for any Iranian exodus. "They're working on solutions. One of those was that they were going to create a safe zone inside Iran," said Ozel.  The Turkish presidency denied reports by Bloomberg news agency that it was considering plans for a so-called safe zone in Iran, controlled by Turkey's military. But Turkish officials have declared they would not allow an uncontrolled influx of Iranian refugees. Why Iran's 'beheaded' power structure may outlive Ali Khamenei Economic fears The Turkish economy is already reeling from government austerity measures aimed at taming inflation above 30 percent. Those efforts could receive a fatal blow with the Iran war already sending oil prices soaring. "Rising oil prices pose a huge threat. Turkish inflation isn’t under control, and oil drives it up. Every 10 percent rise in oil adds about 1 percent to inflation," Yesilada noted. The analyst warned that sustained high oil prices could present political challenges: "Modest increases in wages and prices at the beginning of the year would prove insufficient to cover basic needs, potentially resulting in rising social unrest." Ankara has bitter memories of previous US wars in the Middle East. The US-led invasion of Iraq plunged the country into civil war, which devastated Turkey’s border economy and had far-reaching security repercussions. The fear in Ankara is that it will again be picking up the bill for Washington’s war.

    6 min

  3. 23 FEB

    Life after ruin: Aghdam's fragile rebirth after the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

    Three decades after war reduced the city of Aghdam to ruins, deminers and returning residents are laying the groundwork for its revival. The destruction of the city of Aghdam in the contested enclave of Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh is among the most visible signs of the decades-long conflict between Azerbaijanis and ethnic Armenians. Now efforts are underway to bring the city back to life. A loud explosion breaks the winter silence as the latest disposal of collected mines takes place. ‘We’ve cleared three hundred thousand square meters and found more than ten thousand landmines,” proudly declares Elnur Gasimov, head of mine clearance operations in Aghdam. The dangerous work, done in freezing weather, carries significant risk. Gasimov's right hand is missing several fingers. “We have more than 10 deminers who have lost their legs, and we lost two deminers during the explosive disposal,” Gasimov told RFI. He explains that, with Aghdam once close to the frontline in fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces, the area was among the heaviest mined during the conflict. Azerbaijan lifts Armenia border restrictions, but hurdles to peace remain Clearing the mines Nagorno-Karabakh was historically home to a predominantly ethnic Armenian population. In 1993, they broke away from Azerbaijan, declaring a breakaway Republic of Artsakh. But in 2023, during a lightning war, Azerbaijani forces recaptured the region. With access to Aghdam still tightly controlled since the end of the fighting, RFI joined a small group of journalists on a trip organised by the Azerbaijani authorities. The city of Aghdam was once home to 40,000 people, predominantly Azerbaijani. Long a cultural centre of the region, the city was also home to Azerbaijan’s most famous football club – Qarabag – which now plays out of the capital, Baku. Today, not a single house remains standing – all were razed to the ground, and even the trees didn't escape the conflict. It’s a barren wasteland. The historical Juma mosque was one of the few buildings that survived, partially intact, and was used as a shelter for farm animals by ethnic Armenians. Imam Mehman Nesirov, 45, is the proud custodian of the fully restored mosque, where up to 100 worshippers now attend Friday prayers as life slowly returns to the city. Nesirov fled Aghdam in 1993 as a child: “We were forced to leave because of the sound of fighting, which was getting closer and closer. Everyone was terrified and panicked." Nesirov explained to RFI that he and his family spent the first years of their lives living in a railway wagon. “I will never forget those years. We always prayed to God that one day we could return and pray at this mosque,” said Nesirov. “We can't put into words how we feel that dream we had as a child, a teenager, and an adult is finally realised.” Azerbaijan must allow 'safe' return to Nagorno-Karabakh: UN court Returns and ruptures Around a thousand people have returned to Aghdam, all housed in new state-built accommodation, as the city itself remains uninhabitable. While Azerbaijanis are slowly returning, ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh have now become refugees following the victory of Azeri forces in 2023. “What we saw within 24 hours was the forced expulsion of the remaining 110,000 Armenians from their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh,” said Richard Giragosiyan, director of the Regional Studies Center, a Yerevan think tank. “They were leaving behind whole homes, personal possessions, family graves, and coming to Armenia, which was more of a foreign country than many people understand,” added Giragosiyan. However, Giragosiyan claims that Azerbaijan’s forces' success in Nagorno-Karabakh opened the door to a “diplomatic breakthrough,” with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan committing themselves to improving relations in the aftermath of the conflict. Baku in January opened its border to allow oil and grain from Kazakhstan to reach Armenia, which is important for Yerevan as it tries to rely less on Russia and move closer to Europe. In Aghdam’s newest hotel, manager Aykhan Jabbarov welcomes rapprochement efforts between Yerevan and Baku.   Jabbarov, a veteran of the last Nagorno-Karabakh war whose family fled Aghdam thirty years ago, looks forward to a time when Azerbaijanis and Armenians can again live together in the city. “If we look to history, we lived together before now, every leader talks about peace … We have to build a good relationship. It will help both countries' economy, people’s social life and the regional economy, everything.” However, diplomatic efforts to restore relations and normalise Armenian-Azerbaijani ties still have plenty of work ahead. With repercussions of the past never far away, Ruben Vardanyan, a leading member of the breakaway Armenian administration captured by Azeri forces, was convicted this week of war crimes and sentenced to 20 years in jail by an Azerbaijani court.

    8 min

  4. 22 FEB

    What does the end of US-Russia nuclear arms treaty mean for disarmament?

    For 15 years, the New Start treaty bound the United States and Russia to curb their nuclear arsenals – until it expired earlier this month. Researcher Benoit Pelopidas tells RFI what hope remains for disarmament now that there are no longer fixed limits on the world's two largest nuclear powers. In what could mark a major turning point in the history of arms control, New Start expired on 5 February. Neither US President Donald Trump nor his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin has shown interest in renewing it.  The treaty was signed between the United States and Russia on 8 April 2010 and came into force on 5 February 2011. Initially planned to last 10 years, it was extended for another five in 2021. Its goal was to limit each side to 800 missile launchers and 1,550 nuclear warheads, with the two countries authorised to inspect each other's stockpiles. It was never a global treaty. Other countries signed up to the broader Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which came into force in 1970 and now has 191 parties, including the US and Russia. But Washington and Moscow also had bilateral arms control agreements in place continuously since 1972 – until now, notes Benoît Pelopidas, an expert on nuclear threats at Sciences Po university in Paris. "But it would be false to deduce from that that the arms race has not started yet and might start now," he tells RFI.  "There are reasons to think that the arms race started as early as the spring of 2010." Europe confronts ‘new nuclear reality’ as Macron signals broader deterrence role 'Possible acceleration' Even before New Start expired, implementation of the treaty deteriorated over time, culminating in Russia suspending its participation in 2023. "And now we're at a full level where it's no longer implemented at all," says Pelopidas. "It's new diplomatically, and it enables the possible acceleration of an ongoing arms race." NATO called for "restraint and responsibility" after the treaty expired. "Russia's irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and coercive signals on nuclear matters reveal a posture of strategic intimidation," an official told French news agency AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity. "NATO will continue to take the measures necessary to ensure its credibility and the effectiveness of its overall deterrence and defence position." The Kremlin had proposed continuing to comply with New Start's limits until February 2027, but the White House did not respond. Moscow considers the treaty's expiration "a negative development", Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "We express our regret in this regard." China shuns calls to enter nuclear talks after US-Russia treaty lapses Disarmament still possible According to Pelopidas, disarmament is possible and has been partially achieved before, especially in the early 1990s after the end of the Cold War.  "In 1991, we had 58,000 nuclear weapons on the planet. And we're now at a level of roughly 12,000 in 2025, which is a massive decrease," he says.  "We have, between 1986 and today, dismantled or retired over 80 percent of the existing arsenal in the world. So it is not materially impossible to dismantle or disarm." The world's remaining nuclear stockpile still has the potential to wreak huge destruction, he stresses, a fact that he believes should drive all nuclear powers to work towards de-escalation. "If the theory of nuclear winter is correct, a so-called limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan that led to the explosion of 100 Hiroshima-sized bombs – that is, roughly 1 percent of the existing arsenal – would lead to the death of 2 billion people by starvation due to its indirect consequences over two years," Pelopidas says. "That's how destructive the capacity of the existing arsenal is." Episode mixed by Erwan Rome.

    17 min

  5. 14 FEB

    Somalia becomes a flashpoint in Turkey's rivalry with Israel

    Staunchly allied with Turkey, Somalia has become a flashpoint in Turkey's rivalry with Israel. Ankara recently deployed fighter jets to Mogadishu in the latest signal that it is determined to protect its strategic interests in the Horn of Africa after Israel recognised the breakaway region of Somaliland. In a conspicuous display of military strength, Turkish F-16 fighter jets roared over the Somali capital, Mogadishu, in late January. According to Turkish officials, the deployment was aimed at protecting Turkish interests and supporting Somali efforts to counter an insurgency by the radical Islamist group al-Shabaab.  It follows Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in December, which Ankara condemned as a threat to Somalia's territorial integrity. Turkish international relations expert Soli Ozel said the jets send a message to Israel: "Don't mess with our interests here." Somalia is poised to become the latest point of tension between the countries, he predicts. "I don't think they will fight, but they are both showing their colours. Israel's recognition of Somaliland and the Turks sending F-16s and drones are attempts to set limits to what the other party can do," he said. "Could it get out of hand? I don’t know. It may." The risky calculations behind Israel's recognition of Somaliland Mutual suspicion The episode reflects broader strains in Israeli-Turkish relations, which remain fraught over Ankara’s support of Hamas and Israel’s war in Gaza. "It's a new chapter in the competition between the two countries, which are now the dominant military powers in the Middle East," said Norman Ricklefs, CEO of geopolitical consultancy Namea Group. According to Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, Israel is not seeking to challenge the interests of Turkey or Somalia. Instead, she argues Israel’s recognition of Somaliland and its commitment to deepening cooperation are motivated by the breakaway’s state strategic location facing Yemen, where Houthi rebels launched attacks against Israeli cities last year. "The Houthis were the last ones who were still launching missiles against Israel, from the Iranian proxies. This is the most major threat for Israel," she said.  However, Lindenstrauss acknowledges that both sides increasingly view each other's actions with suspicion. "What Israel sees as defence, Turkey sees as something against Ankara." Rival blocs Turkey's suspicions could grow if Israel deploys military hardware in Somaliland to counter threats from Yemen, a move an anonymous Israeli expert suggested is Israel’s aim. Ricklefs warns Israel needs to tread carefully, given the significant investments Turkey had made in Somalia over the past 15 years. Turkey has its largest overseas military base and embassy in Somalia, while Ankara has signed agreements with Mogadishu to explore potential energy reserves, as well as a naval accord. "Turkey is running the [Mogadishu] port, counterterrorism training, charities, NGOs, and all that kind of stuff. So it appears very important to Turkey's regional strategic ambitions," said Ricklefs. He noted that Somalia’s location on the Horn of Africa, with coastlines in the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean, makes it "key for regional influence". With Somalia naval deal, Turkey steers into strategic but volatile region Lindenstrauss observed that the Turkish-Israeli rivalry over Somalia is further complicated by the emergence of two competing axes: "On the one hand, you see Greece, Cyprus, Israel, the UAE. On the other hand, you see Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt and Qatar," she explained.   "They are loose axes, but you do see that on many issues, these two axes think differently. And that's also a cause of the rising tensions." Ricklefs noted that tensions have already spilled over into confrontation elsewhere. “We've already seen the pretty strong competition leading to violence in Libya, between blocs aligned with the Emirates and, on the other side, blocs aligned with Turkey in Libya," he said. As for whether the same could happen in Somalia, Ricklefs said he doesn't believe the situation has yet reached that point.  "I don’t think we're there just yet with Somaliland and Somalia," he said. "And frankly, the only party that can play a mediating role, a conflict-reducing role, in this situation is the United States."

    5 min

  6. 8 FEB

    Greece and Turkey look to revive rapprochement amid Aegean tensions

    A meeting between the leaders of Greece and Turkey next week seeks to rejuvenate a stalled rapprochement process between the neighbouring countries, amid growing tensions and fears of an unpredictable intervention by US President Donald Trump. Wednesday’s meeting in Ankara between Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the latest in a series aimed at improving relations. It stems from the 2023 Athens Declaration, a formal statement of friendship that led to better economic cooperation and a cooling of military tensions over the disputed Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean Seas. Mitsotakis’s visit comes at a critical time for the process. “I think it's very important, the meeting has been postponed twice in the past,” says former Greek foreign ministry advisor Panayotis Ioakimidis, who now teaches at the University of Athens. “There are some people within the [Greek] governing party, and outside it, who have serious reservations about improving or even talking about relations with Turkey,” he notes. “So it's very important for the meeting to happen, to keep cooperation going; otherwise, relations risk sliding into conflict.” Claims on the Aegean The talks come as tensions over the Aegean Sea – believed to have vast untapped energy reserves – are on the rise. In January, the Greek foreign minister, George Gerapetritis, announced Greece’s intent to exercise its right under international law to extend its territorial waters in the Aegean from six to 12 nautical miles, to create a marine park. Erdogan is expected to remind his Greek counterpart that any extension of territorial waters is a red line for Turkey. “Mitsotakis will get some lectures in Ankara,” predicts international relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University. In 1995, the Turkish parliament passed a motion declaring that Greece unilaterally extending its waters beyond six miles was a casus belli – cause for war. “Twelve miles [of] territorial waters for Greece means the Turkish ships cannot go one kilometre outside of Turkish territory. Turkey cannot accept this,” says Bagci. In response, Athens is using Greece’s European Union veto to prevent Turkey from joining the EU’s SAFE defence procurement programme until Turkey withdraws its threat of war. Turkey and Egypt's joint naval drill signals shifting Eastern Med alliances Alliance with Israel Adding to tensions, last December Greece and Cyprus signed a series of defence agreements with one of Turkey’s fiercest rivals – Israel. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan accused Israel of seeking to encircle Turkey, while Turkish media dubbed it an “axis of evil”. Mitsotakis is expected to try to allay such concerns during his visit to Ankara. “The Greek side thinks it can separate these issues and keep them quite separate from the bilateral issues between Greece and Turkey,” says Ioakimidis. “But it’s a very likely scenario to take the countries into very dangerous waters.” Israel’s military support of Greece is to blame for Athens’ more assertive stance in the Aegean, argues Murat Aslan of the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a Turkish pro-government think tank. He says that Greece acts more boldly when backed by others: “Once they enjoy the support of another, material or narrative, they are much more courageous to challenge.” If Greece maintains this approach, Aslan suggests, Turkey will likely go back to increasing its military activity. Prior to recent attempts at rapprochement, Turkish and Greek warplanes often challenged each another in mock dogfights in the disputed airspace over the Aegean. Turkey flexes naval muscles as neighbours fear escalating arms race Trump effect However, Trump could provide an impetus to contain tensions. With the American ambassador to Greece announcing this week that the US president will visit Athens, both Erdogan and Mitsotakis will be wary of Trump's involvement in their bilateral affairs. “I think both countries are concerned about this destabilisation to the international order that the Trump administration has brought,” says Ioannis Grigoriadis of Ankara’s Bilkent University, a specialist in Greek-Turkish relations. “It may be a strong incentive for both sides to declare that things are OK, so let's keep Trump's intervention away from Turkish-Greek relations. I don't think that any side would like that to happen, given the circumstances and the unpredictability of such an intervention.” Wednesday’s meeting is set to emphasise the economic benefits of rapprochement and regional cooperation. However, amid persistent Aegean tensions and Turkey’s concerns over Israel’s role, expectations for progress remain low.

    6 min

  7. 6 FEB

    Caught between conflict and crisis, Syria faces 'incredibly fragile moment'

    After more than a decade of war, a surge of violence in northern Syria is forcing thousands of people to flee – even as others return to a fractured country under a fragile interim government. With two-thirds of the population in need of urgent assistance and the UN humanitarian response underfunded, the Danish Refugee Council's Charlotte Slente tells RFI why aid groups fear catastrophic consequences as cold weather and economic collapse push millions to the brink. Clashes in and around Aleppo have displaced around 170,000 people since mid-January, as the Syrian army seeks to extend its control over previously Kurdish-controlled areas. Ongoing hostilities between government forces and armed groups continue to trigger displacement in several parts of the country, according to the UN. While political transition is underway after the fall of Bashar al-Assad at the end of 2024, reconstruction and recovery efforts are hindered by instability and lack of funding.  Access to healthcare remains unreliable, and basic services are severely disrupted. A harsh winter and long-term drought are exacerbating the crisis. More than 16 million Syrians are expected to need humanitarian assistance in 2026 – yet the UN's response plan is only 33.5 percent funded, leaving a $3.2 billion gap. "It is an incredibly fragile moment for Syria," said Slente, secretary-general of the Danish Refugee Council (DRC), speaking to RFI on a visit to the Syria, including areas in and around Damascus.  "This is a country where two out of every three Syrians need humanitarian assistance, and 90 percent of the population lives below the poverty line." A year after Assad's fall, Syrian hopes for transitional justice are fading Returning to ruins, landmines Around 3 million Syrian refugees and internally displaced people have returned home since the fall of the Assad regime, over 1 million from other countries and nearly 2 million from within Syria. "Syria has had a new government in place for the last year," Slente said, "and it's time to sort of recap on our programming here and adapt our programming to the new realities on the ground. A vast percentage of the population here are in dire need of humanitarian assistance on the ground." Many people are returning to their homes to find almost nothing after more than 13 years of civil war, she added. One of the DRC's priorities now is to work on getting rid of the landmines that still litter areas where fighting took place, and pose a deadly threat to returnees. The organisation recently finished training local teams to help clear mines, Slente said. "We are helping build the capacity here of the National Mine Action Centre in the Ministry of Emergencies that needs to coordinate that very big endeavour of clearing Syria of unexploded ordinance and landmines. It means that now we can get more jobs done on the ground with the clearing of mines, getting them out of fields and villages, so that people can actually be safe when they move around the territory." As Syrian workers return home from Turkey, local businesses feel the loss Upheaval in Kurdish north In north-eastern Syria, near the border with Turkey, civilians say they are still fearful. After months of tension, Kurdish-led forces have ceded swathes of territory to advancing government troops. Under a deal agreed last week, Kurdish forces and administrative institutions are to be integrated into the state. It is a blow to the Kurds, who had sought to preserve the de facto autonomy they exercised after seizing swathes of territory in battles against the Islamic State jihadist group during the civil war. "We are afraid that they will attack our regions and that massacres and genocide will occur," one woman told RFI's reporter in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli, where government forces entered on Tuesday. Another resident said he was hoping for "a positive resolution to the conflict, so that no more bloodshed occurs". This episode was mixed by Nicolas Doreau.

    14 min

  8. 31 JAN

    As Syrian workers return home from Turkey, local businesses feel the loss

    While polls say the majority of Turkish people welcome the departure of Syrians displaced by the civil war, Turkey's business owners are feeling the pinch with the loss of their workforce. With the end of the Syrian civil war, Turkey claims that nearly a million refugees who were living there have already returned home. Their departure is being welcomed by the Turkish government, amid growing public animosity over the presence of more than 3 million refugees. But for many Turkish companies, Syrians are an economic lifeline – as seen in Gaziantep, an industrial city close to the Syrian border.  The Inci Boya company is one of hundreds of small factories and workshops in the city. With a couple of dozen workers, hundreds of pieces of furniture are spray-painted each day. With long hours in air thick with dust, it’s arduous, dirty work. As in many factories in Gaziantep, Syrians make up a large share of the workforce.  “I can't get people from my own community to work in my sector,” explains owner Halil Yarabay. "Many workshop owners and many businesses are unfortunately experiencing this.” He blames societal changes, “Our children, our youth... they consider such work beneath them. They consider they’ve failed in their family's eyes by working with their hands as a furniture maker or a mechanic.” French journalist arrested in Turkey while covering pro-Kurdish protest released Realities of returning But local authorities claim nearly 100,000 Syrians have already left the city – including including several who worked at Inci Boya. During a welcome tea break, the topic of going home is on everyone’s tongue. Ahmed Hac Hussein has been working there for more than five years. He, too, is thinking of leaving. “Many people are returning,  I have a relative who moves a family back to Syria every day,” he said. “For me, I lived in Aleppo for 35 years. I have so many friends there, I haven't seen them for 14 years. I have three sisters there, and I haven’t seen them either. I want to go.” However, Hussein, who lost his home in the war, acknowledges that the economic realities in Syria make returning difficult. “You need to have money to pay the monthly rent. You need a job, but there is no work. My brother went back to Aleppo, but he says business is too slow.” Listening is Hussein's son, Ibrahim, who started working here a year ago after leaving school. He feels differently: “I grew up here; this place became my second home. I love it here a lot. I was two years old when I came here, and I never went back. I don’t want to go back.”   Demographic time bomb   Turkish companies such as Inci Boya will be hoping many Syrians feel the same as Ibrahim, claims Atilla Yesilada, Turkey’s economic analyst for consultancy Global Source Partners. He says around 900,000 Syrians work in small businesses and factories across Turkey. “They’ve filled all the low-paying jobs. Without Syrians, business owners say they'll go bankrupt, since that keeps costs down." This reliance on Syrian workers, and their departure, also comes as Turkey faces a demographic time bomb. “The birth rate has declined substantially. The Turkish birth rate is 1.5, and you know, replacement is 2.1," Yesilada added. He warns the outlook for Turkey is grim, given the experience of other countries. "[The birthrate is] coming down significantly, and it's been going down for 20 years.… [the example of] China shows that there is nothing you can do about it.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently called on families to "serve the nation" by having at least three children. His minister of family and social services claimed nearly half of Turkish families didn't have children. To attract workers, visa and work permit restrictions were lifted last year for all Turkic Central Asian nations. Turkey blocks calls for regime change in Iran as protests escalate Rising costs But at the Inci Boya factory, owner Halil Yarabay is already counting the cost of Syrians leaving, and says a bidding war to keep these workers is beginning. "Labour costs are rising. Employees we paid 10,000 TL a week now cost up to 15,000," he said. Some larger companies in Gaziantep – such as Tat Holding, which makes furniture and sweets among many other products – are even considering following their workers back to Syria, says its CEO Salih Balta.  "Syria is close to Gaziantep and allows us to produce and export at up to 35 percent lower cost," he explained. Balta claims that producing in Syria – a member of the Arab League – would allow his company to export tax-free to 17 Arab countries under its free trade agreement. “For us, the Gulf countries are a very important market," he said. Gaziantep, along with many cities across Turkey, has seen protests against Syrian incomers. Several polls have found that the majority of people want them to return. But this could ultimately prove a double-edged sword, as businesses face growing economic pain over the loss of their Syrian workforce.

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