J.P. Morgan Research

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Canale • 2 podcast

Economia

Economia

Ogni giorno
Economia

Economia

Ogni settimana

10 OTT

Global Data Pod Weekender: Just how symmetric are risks, really?

A case is made that the US floor is low but the ceiling is high, while the range for the rest of the world is narrower. A counter argument is that the bullish view of risk assets poses more of an asymmetric risk distribution for the US. Fiscal policies have tilted easier this year, a theme we stressed in our year-ahead outlook, but the latest developments (France, Japan, China, US) do not move the global needle much. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 10 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

10 ott

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43 min
10 OTT

Global FX and Commodities: The bullish case for gold, the bearish case for USD ex-yen and the shutdown showdown

Meera Chandan, Natasha Kaneva, Anezka Christovova, Junya Tanase and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for gold/ the dollar, emphasize the case for cyclical FX, re-examine the prospects for yen following political developments in Japan and look ahead to next steps in the US government shutdown. This podcast was recorded on 10 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5098922-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

10 ott

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29 min
3 OTT

Global FX: Shutdown limbo

This week, our Global FX Strategists, Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke break down the latest on 1) the US government shutdown's impact on the dollar, 2) next week's Japan LDP election for JPY, and 3) notable flows from recently-released FX reserve manager data for 2Q. This podcast was recorded on 03 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5093564-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

3 ott

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22 min
4 GG FA

Asia Cross Asset Podcast: Japan - The New LDP Leader: Implications for policy and markets

Featured in this podcast are Sajjid Chinoy, Ayako Fujita, Junya Tanase, Takafumi Yamawaki, Rie Nishihara and Tim West. This episode was recorded on October 10, 2025. The surprise election of Sanae Takaichi as head of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan has brought Abenomics back in the air. But the macro environment in Japan is currently very different with inflation uncomfortably elevated and sticky. To make sense of what Takaichi would mean for economic policy and markets, Sajjid Z. Chinoy (Head of Asia Economics) and Tim West (Executive Director, Japan Sales) are joined in this week’s podcast by: Ayako Fujita – Chief Japan Economist Junya Tanase – Chief Japan FX Strategist Takafumi Yamawaki – Head of Japan Fixed Income Research Rie Nishihara – Head of Japan Equity Strategy This podcast was recorded on Oct 10, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

4 gg fa

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23 min
8 OTT

EM Sovereign External Repayment Risks: Staying alive after 2025

Ben Ramsey, Nishant Poojary and Jonny Goulden discuss the latest publication on EM Sovereign External Repayment Risks. This report builds on our previous work, providing a comprehensive assessment of external repayment risks across a broad set of EM and frontier sovereigns. We focus on 18 sovereigns flagged by our risk metric assessment as most vulnerable to credit events. Our set of countries features many familiar names that have faced stress in the past, but there are also some new names in the mix. Our key finding is that the majority of at-risk EM sovereigns possess sufficient reserves and financing sources to meet upcoming Eurobond amortizations through 2026. Speakers Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy Nishant Poojary, Emerging Markets Strategy This podcast was recorded on October 8, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4987663-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

8 ott

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19 min
3 OTT

Global Data Pod Weekender: If data falls in the woods…

The US shutdown leaves us with limited visibility at an important juncture in the global outlook. There are reasons to believe that the factors of lift are set to fade and that the factors of drag are intensifying. These are just narratives for now, but keep the risks for a bend-but-not break global outlook skewed to the downside and the Fed in insurance easing mode. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 3 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

3 ott

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38 min
3 OTT

Global Rates: Cross currency basis 4Q25 outlook

In this podcast Khagendra Gupta and Ipek Ozil discuss the drivers of €STR/SOFR cross currency bases. Speakers: Ipek Ozil, Head of US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy Khagendra Gupta, Head of European Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy This podcast was recorded on 3 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5092332-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

3 ott

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10 min
3 OTT

Global Commodities: Agri trade returns to President Trumps Agenda

Agri markets have returned to the US trade agenda, following President Trump’s commitment to discuss China’s absence of US soybean export orders at an upcoming meeting with President Xi. However, it’s likely too late for US soybean farmers and exporters to regain market share through the current season, unless the Chinese reserve moves into stockpiling mode. During this episode, Tracey also discusses the agri market outlook including recent fundamental developments and weather risks as the ENSO cycle is transitioning to La Nina. Our September 2025 assessment of global agri commodity fundamentals has found that availability remains at or near multi-year lows in 2025/26 and with markets priced for production perfection, we see upside price risks ahead across much of the complex. Speakers: Tracey Allen, Senior Commodities Strategist, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research This podcast was recorded on October 3, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5090092-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5088200-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5094837-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

3 ott

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18 min
26 SET

Global Data Pod Weekender: Strong but shaky growth

The global expansion is now tracking a strong 3Q outturn, led by a robust increase in the US. The contrast of this strength with a near-stall in global employment is striking. Strong wealth gains and a falling saving rate are supporting consumer spending for now. But labor income growth is softening broadly, and is set to take a sharp leg down next quarter in the US. Absent a bounce back in hiring, the expansion will be on shaky ground. This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

26 set

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33 min
26 SET

US Rates - So long EFFR, welcome TGCR

US Rates Strategists Teresa Ho and Ipek Ozil reflect on shifts to SOFR and EFFR this month as well as discuss the implications of TGCR as an alternative benchmark. Speakers Teresa Ho, Head, U.S. Short Duration Strategy Ipek Ozil, Head, U.S. Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5083215-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5082188-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5090225-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

26 set

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15 min

Listen to insights from J.P. Morgan Global Research economists and strategists as they discuss the data, trends and catalysts behind market moving and noteworthy economic events. Get new episodes as soon as they’re released: subscribe to J.P. Morgan Global Research.

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J.P. Morgan Research

Top podcast

Global Data Pod Weekender: Just how symmetric are risks, really?

Global FX and Commodities: The bullish case for gold, the bearish case for USD ex-yen and the shutdown showdown

Global FX: Shutdown limbo

Asia Cross Asset Podcast: Japan - The New LDP Leader: Implications for policy and markets

EM Sovereign External Repayment Risks: Staying alive after 2025

Global Data Pod Weekender: If data falls in the woods…

Global Rates: Cross currency basis 4Q25 outlook

Global Commodities: Agri trade returns to President Trumps Agenda

Global Data Pod Weekender: Strong but shaky growth

US Rates - So long EFFR, welcome TGCR

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