Risk and Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan

S3 Partners
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Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners Founder Bob Sloan break down the biggest business headlines and actionable insights that give listeners an inside edge on the markets.

  1. vor 4 Tagen

    SpaceX Beat the Quarter. Shorts Await the Unlock.

    SpaceX broke to new lows this week and the shorts aren't going anywhere before Thursday's pre-IPO lockup expiry. S3's data told the story before the tape did: the highest short interest as a percentage of float in the Magnificent 8, and roughly $9 billion in short-seller profits — S3 numbers Elon Musk responded to on X.com! Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners founder & CEO Bob Sloan break down the week's biggest market stories using S3's proprietary positioning data — showing where institutional investors are actually leaning. This week: Situational Awareness dropped 67% in a month after a massive two-year run — and the fund's letter pointed at short sellers. S3's data shows short interest across the long book was flat to falling, with convert hedging — not directional bets — doing representing a significant amount of the short book. Plus: the details lock-up overhang hanging over SpaceX, shipping shorts signal no peace priced into Hormuz or the Red Sea, and New York's gambling suit against Kalshi. For more information about the data featured in the episode visit S3Partners.com 00:00 — S3's banner week: the SpaceX data heard around the Street — and Bob's NY Post op-ed on New York vs. Cleveland 03:20 — SpaceX (SPCX): new lows, shorts in control — the Mag 8's highest short % of float and ~$9B in short profits 08:45 — Situational Awareness: down 67% in a month — did short sellers really take the fund out? The data says no 14:57 — Margin calls, price discovery, and Ken Griffin's cleanup crew. 17:55 — El-Sayed's one-point Michigan shock: Fetterman watch, Van Jones' "Blockbuster vs. Netflix," and why the prediction markets overshot 23:50 — Silicon Valley vs. Wall Street: the story behind the Situational Awareness blowup 26:06 — New York sues Kalshi: bucket shops, court precedent, and 150 years of the gambling-vs.-speculation fight 32:42 — SpaceX's $18B CapEx that spooked the market 35:09 — In dollar terms, SpaceX short interest now tops Tesla — inside the short-seller mindset 36:53 — The geopolitical tell: betting on peace means shorting shipping — and nobody is 38:08 — Trump's war dilemma: the JD Vance faction, the generals, and the midterm clock 41:57 — The risk the market isn't pricing: political violence — Weimar parallels, the horseshoe, and the "normies" 49:16 — Closing thoughts: Charlie's message to New York's business leaders

  2. 30. Juli

    The $24 Billion Bet Against SpaceX, South Korea Wipeout & U.S. Sector Positioning Map

    The Fed held rates steady — and markets resumed the sell-off. The warning was already in the positioning data: Korea's single-stock ETF blowup and a crossing Korea–Hong Kong spread foreshadowed the move before it reached U.S. shores. Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners founder & CEO Bob Sloan break down the week's biggest market stories using S3's proprietary positioning and short-interest data — showing where institutional investors are actually leaning, before the headlines catch up. This week: SpaceX short interest climbs to roughly $24 billion — larger than Tesla's in dollar terms — with a lock-up bigger than the entire public float arriving days after Q2 earnings. Plus: shorts doubled their Fair Isaac (FICO) position before the post-earnings slide, Treasury ETF shorts are nowhere to be found despite the rate scare, and this week's S3 earnings model setups. For more information about the data behind the charts visit S3Partners.com 00:00 — Fed holds, markets sell off: the yield curve, the oil shock, and AI CapEx 08:35 — Warsh's balancing act; NYC's second-home tax list, munis and "jump risk" 17:35 — Anthony Fauci testimony and political fallout 25:10 — Paramount–Warner Bros. merger and the antitrust fight 28:30 — S3 Earnings Positioning Model Forecasts 30:35 — AI positioning: short interest +90% YoY, hedge funds still underweight 32:15 — Sector map: tech's wide long/short gap vs. healthcare's crowded long 35:50 — SpaceX (SPCX): $24B short — now bigger than Tesla's 42:55 — Fair Isaac (FICO): shorts doubled ahead of the drop 47:05 — South Korea's single-stock ETF blowup — and what it foreshadowed 50:30 — Closing thoughts

  3. 23. Juli

    Microsoft's Ten-Year-High Short Interest and the Positioning Break in AI

    Microsoft is down 19% on the year while Alphabet is up 11% and Amazon is up 7% — big CapEx bets, different outcomes. Bob Sloan takes Charlie Gasparino through what S3's data shows underneath it: short interest up 68% to a ten-year high, and active hedge fund longs heading for the exits at the same time. Both sides of hedge fund positioning, one direction: Sell Microsoft. Bob explains why. In the neo-clouds, Bob explains why a 50-60% jump in short interest overstates the bearishness — much of the sector's financing runs through convertible debt, and convert arb desks short the stock to hedge it. However, as prices fell, some of that hedge came off, leaving a larger share of the book directional. Plus memory, where US shorts have covered but Taiwanese conviction hasn't budged, and the Hong Kong–Korea spread narrowing after weeks on the S3 radar. Away from the data desk: Charlie on why 12 state AGs are suing to block Paramount Skydance–Warner Bros. Discovery hours after the EU approved it, the $7 million-a-day ticking fee, New York City muni yields popping two weeks running under Mayor Mamdani, and what a senior JPMorgan executive told him about the Wall Street Journal's story on IRS chief Frank Bisignano. Risk & Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan. Data drives news. News drives markets. For more information about the positioning data featured in the episode visit www.S3Partners.com 00:00 — Intro 02:17 — Paramount Skydance–Warner Bros. Discovery: 12 AGs, one EU approval 04:54 — The TRO, the preliminary injunction, and the $7M/day ticking fee 10:07 — New York City munis: yields popping under Mamdani 13:06 — Capital flight happens gradually, then suddenly 19:08 — No shorts left in the bond ETFs — the air pocket setup 21:26 — The Wall Street Journal, Frank Bisignano, and what JPMorgan actually found 31:26 — S3 picks: Roper (ROP) bullish, Nasdaq (NDAQ) bearish 32:38 — Microsoft down 19%: the OpenAI exposure problem 37:05 — Neo-cloud shorts: hedge unwind vs. directional conviction 38:02 — Memory: US shorts cover, Taiwan holds 39:18 — Hong Kong–South Korea: the spread narrows 41:22 — Space, the IPO break, and never catching the bottom

  4. 20. Juli

    Positioning Turns Bearish: Oracle, CoreWeave PLUS Rich Greenfield on the Paramount Battle

    Media analyst Rich Greenfield joins Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan to break down California's lawsuit challenging the Paramount-Skydance merger and why timing—not necessarily the legal merits—could determine the deal's future. Charlie and Rich discuss Netflix's competitive position, the economics of theatrical films, AMC's ongoing challenges, and the future of media consolidation.At the data desk Bob Sloan, S3 Partners founder and managing partner walks through this week's biggest positioning shifts. Oracle (ORCL) sees short interest nearly double while credit markets flash caution around AI spending and leverage. CoreWeave (CRWV) remains one of the market's most important bellwether stocks as directional short sellers continue pressing the trade despite a significant pullback. Bob also highlights a notable divergence between Healthcare and Technology positioning, where active stock pickers are driving healthcare exposure while passive flows dominate technology even as short interest continues to build.Charlie closes with a discussion on SpaceX's post-IPO trading, oil markets, New York municipal bonds, media consolidation, and the political landscape heading toward the next presidential election.Risk & Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan. Data drives news. News drives markets.For more information about the positioning data featured in this episode visit www.S3Partners.com.Chapters00:00 — Intro00:45 — Rich Greenfield joins: Paramount vs. California06:20 — Netflix, media consolidation & theatrical power11:45 — AMC, movie theaters & The Odyssey19:50 — S3 Positioning: Oracle (ORCL) turns bearish23:20 — CoreWeave (CRWV): record shorts & AI infrastructure26:20 — Healthcare vs. Technology positioning28:15 — SpaceX after the IPO30:00 — Oil, Iran and market risk34:00 — Politics, media and the 2028 race39:30 — NYC bonds, Rockefeller & capital flight48:15 — Wrap-up

  5. 9. Juli

    Crowded Shorts, Trapped Longs: The Positioning Map from U.S. Crypto to Hong Kong

    S3 Partners founder Bob Sloan flagged Strategy's (MSTR) funding problem months ago. With Bitcoin near $60K and Saylor's break-even around $70K, Bob and Charlie Gasparino break down the negative carry, the asset-liability mismatch, and the "holes in the boat": if his 4% of all Bitcoin starts hitting the tape, the ~$20K technical floor of the last crypto winter comes back into play. On the S3 radar: Pepsi (PEP), the bullish pick of the week into earnings, short interest up 46% against a rising price; Hong Kong, a tinderbox with shorts up 49% as China nears a deflation exit; memory/DRAM, where US shorts press SanDisk (SNDK) and Micron (MU) at extreme Z-scores while Korean longs, up 200%, crush shorts out of the market; and Circle (CRCL), down 19% on passive selling even with active longs at 2.5x shorts — a crack in the stablecoin duopoly. Away from the data desk, Charlie reports on the Sun Valley media gathering — knitting class included — where Ken Griffin rejects the class-warfare label and sources say the Comcast–Charter deal everyone expects isn't happening. Plus a live text brawl between AMC CEO Adam Aron and analyst Rich Greenfield over dilution math, and Jay Clayton's nod for Director of National Intelligence. Risk & Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan. Data drives news. News drives markets. For more information about the positioning data featured in the episode visit www.S3Partners.com 00:00 Intro 02:36 Breaking news from Sun Valley: the billionaires' knitting class 07:15 Ken Griffin, class warfare, and the mogul lineup 15:36 Strategy (MSTR): Saylor below break-even 19:38 "Holes in the boat" — why $20K is Bitcoin's technical floor 23:00 Why Brian Roberts looks glum: Comcast–Charter math doesn't work 26:27 S3 pick of the week: Pepsi (PEP) bullish into earnings 27:14 Hong Kong tinderbox: shorts +49% as China nears a deflation exit 29:13 China Vanke and the state backstop 31:26 Memory/DRAM: shorts press SanDisk & Micron at extreme Z-scores 32:32 South Korea's "dragon's mouth": Active long positioning 35:01 Circle (CRCL): a cracking stablecoin duopoly 37:19 AMC text brawl: Adam Aron vs. Rich Greenfield on dilution 44:33 Wrap-up

  6. 2. Juli

    Selloffs, Squeezes & a July 4th Bull Case for America!

    Bitcoin's been cut in half — is the crypto winter just getting started? Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners founder Bob Sloan break down the data behind the selloff, and why S3's positioning numbers on Strategy (MSTR) signal more pain ahead: a dilution spiral where the company issued shares, converts and then preferred shares, forcing an endless hunt for funding to hold the price up. Bob ties it to David Einhorn's classic Allied Capital short — you can't fight a stock while the money keeps flowing, in either direction. Away from the data desk, Charlie gets into why Europe is at war with air conditioning, Comcast's NBCUniversal spinoff and the failure of the media-conglomerate model, and why independent media is eating legacy TV's lunch. On the S3 side, four names are on the radar: Wendy's (WEN), a meme and battleground stock on ten-year-high short interest and a Reddit-fueled surge; the memory/DRAM sector, where shorts and passive money pile in as active investors flee; healthcare, the most crowded hedge-fund long. All capped with a July 4th case for American optimism! Risk & Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan. Data drives news. News drives markets. 00:00 Intro — Bob Sloan, S3, and the "data drives news" ethos 04:57 Crypto winter: Bitcoin halves from $120K 09:23 Crypto infrastructure and the long-term bull case 10:15 MSTR: dilution death spiral? 16:13 Einhorn's Allied Capital — you can't short the funding 18:09 IBIT short interest: watching for the bottom 19:35 Europe's war on air conditioning 25:59 Comcast spins off NBCUniversal 30:41 Why the media-conglomerate model keeps failing 35:20 Independent media is winning — a million views on positioning 40:20 Wendy's (WEN): meme stock & battleground setup 43:26 Memory/DRAM sector: shorts and passive money surge 44:44 Healthcare: the most crowded hedge-fund long since 2021 53:33 July 4th sign-off: the case for American optimism

  7. 25. Juni

    Positioning Is Everything: The Seventh Category of Market Data

    Charlie Gasparino opens with the headlines he's been breaking: the Paramount-Skydance bid for Warner Bros. getting a pass from the Trump administration, why two progressive state AGs could still tie up the $81 billion deal, and the puzzle of why Cory Booker is fighting Trump's bipartisan college sports reform. Then S3 Partners founder and managing partner Bob Sloan makes the case for "the seventh category of market data"—the daily battle between passive flows, active managers, and short interest that's quietly reshaping how stocks move. The pair dig into Q2's biggest short squeezes, why energy left an "air pocket" below the April top, and the live Micron earnings playing out as levered hedge-fund dollars square off against record passive ownership. Plus: the "Magnificent Ten," why space shorts only target pre-revenue names, and SpaceX shedding $250 billion in a single day. Broadcast June 24, 2026. Chapter Breakdown 00:00 — Intro 01:34 — Paramount-Skydance, Warner Bros. & the Antitrust Fight 07:09 — TikTok, Media Consolidation & the AG Lawsuit Threat 10:07 — College Sports Reform & the Cory Booker Puzzle 12:11 — Space Falls $250B in a Day — The Size of Alibaba 20:47 — Lockup Overhangs, Supply & Short Interest Spikes 22:04 — The Seventh Category of Market Data 25:33 — Energy: No Shorts, One-Way Bet & the Air Pocket 28:23 — Micron & Qualcomm: The Levered vs. Unlevered Dollar 30:40 — Qualcomm's Widening Ownership Gap & 5-Year-High Shorts 33:38 — The "Magnificent Ten" and the AI Proxy Trade 37:24 — Space Sector: Shorts Target Pre-Revenue Names 39:50 — Reading the SpaceX S-1: A $28 Trillion TAM 47:13 — Kevin Warsh, AI at the Fed & the Data Mandate 50:04 — The $6 Trillion Balance Sheet Problem 52:38 — Where to Catch Bob Next & Wrap Want the data behind the discussion? S3 Partners is the only complete data set for long and short positioning. Follow Risk & Return for a new edition every week, and visit s3partners.com to see how the seventh category of market data can sharpen your trading. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts so you never miss an episode.

  8. 19. Juni

    The $2 Trillion Space IPO, and the Most Crowded Trade Nobody's Talking About.

    Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan open on the biggest IPO event in years: SpaceX going public at a $2 trillion-plus valuation, a deal Charlie frames as a cultural moment and "a referendum on how the country feels about itself." They dig into the S-1 — the AI buildout, the Starlink and xAI pieces folded in, the ~$100B raised across debt and equity — and Bob's central question for any pre-cash-flow company: when does the cash-burn number get to zero? On the short side, Bob notes the data is too volatile in the first weeks to read cleanly, estimating only around 10 million shares short — light for a deal this size. Then Bob brings the S3 data content, starting with hedge fund positioning by sector. Tech is the biggest HF long at 28% of all long positions, yet that trails its 32% market-cap weight — so funds are underweight tech and hedging it right at index levels. The real signal is Health Care, the most crowded trade on a percentage-of-float basis, flashing red on both crowding and capacity. Bob then walks the space sector shorts, where short interest tracks business maturity rather than the "space" label, Z-scores reveal conviction, and thematic ETFs see almost no activity as managers make targeted single-name bets — with Virgin Galactic seeing steadily mounting short interest. The back half turns to the Fed holding rates under Kevin Warsh, the Iran memorandum of understanding and its effect on oil and gas prices, and a closer look at New York City's cash crunch under the new mayor — widening municipal bond spreads, the reluctance to issue revenue anticipation notes, and why it could be a canary in the coal mine. Closing notes on private supper clubs, the Bruno brothers, and a feel-good podcast story. For more information on the data featured in the episode visit S3Partners. com 00:00 — Opening 01:37 — The $2 Trillion Space IPO: A Cultural Moment 04:07 — Reading the S-1: When Does Cash Burn Get to Zero? 09:48 — Short Interest on Space Stocks: Selective 25:02 — S3 Data: Hedge Fund Positioning by Sector 28:19 — Health Care Is Flashing Red: The Most Crowded Trade 30:35 — Space Sector Shorts, Z-Scores, and Virgin Galactic 32:57 — The Fed, Oil, and the Iran Memorandum35:00 — NYC's Cash Crunch: A Canary in the Coal Mine 43:13 — Feel-Good Stories and Supper Clubs 49:01 — Closing Thoughts

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Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners Founder Bob Sloan break down the biggest business headlines and actionable insights that give listeners an inside edge on the markets.

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