Predictable with Stu Burguiere

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Predictable with Stu Burguiere is a smarter, more useful way to follow the news, using prediction markets to break down what’s happening, why it’s happening and where it’s likely going next.

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Gavin’s Successor? The Markets are Already Moving

California’s governor race is suddenly getting messy, and the prediction markets are reacting in real time. On today’s episode of Predictable with Stu Burguiere, Stu breaks down the latest California gubernatorial debate, including the viral confrontation between Katie Porter and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco that became one of the defining moments of the race. Top issues this time around in CA are sanctuary state policies, men competing in women’s sports, California’s never-ending high-speed rail disaster, and whether frustration with one-party rule is finally creating an opening in the state. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

47 min
-1 J

The Hidden Election Signal That Paid Off Big

Last night’s elections may have looked boring on the surface, but we at Predictable with Stu found some major excitement. Stu breaks down the wild swings behind “Brad Meyer Mania,” including the market move that created a huge opportunity before most people were paying attention. Stu recaps the lessons learned from last night after spotting the value early, and explains that while prediction markets remain the most accurate polling system we have, they’re not perfect – and why that’s a good thing. Plus, an important lesson from election night: just because something is trading at 96% doesn’t mean it’s safe. Stu discusses risk management and knowing when to cut your losses. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

46 min
-2 J

What the Markets Know About the Election That You Don’t

Stu Burguiere breaks down what the prediction markets are quietly signaling about today’s elections and why the real story might not match the headlines. While pundits focus on primaries and redistricting, the markets are pricing in a very different reality, and Stu explains what those hidden signals could mean for who actually gains power. Also, what do the markets say about a prolonged oil crisis? Stu takes a look at the surprising gap between media panic and market expectations. Plus, the unsolicited bid from GameStop to acquire eBay. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

41 min
-3 J

Stu Responds to the WSJ’s Hit Piece

On today’s Predictable with Stu, does everyone really lose in prediction markets? Stu breaks down the Wall Street Journal piece claiming only a few sharks win while everyone else loses, and explains why their poster child example wasn’t exactly the best case choice. Stu also reacts to the Senate quietly banning lawmakers from participating in prediction markets. Plus, we check in on a live entertainment market around Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu and its Rotten Tomatoes score expectations, and revisit the always-reliable benchmark for “beating the system”… Nancy Pelosi’s stock picks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

46 min
30 AVR.

Stu Explains the Iran Oil Shock and What It Signals for 2026

On today’s Predictable w/ Stu, Stu reacts to the latest Iran war driven spike in oil prices and breaks down what the markets are signaling about where things could head next and how it may impact the 2026 midterm elections. Plus, the Supreme Court’s redistricting ruling has both parties scrambling. Stu looks at which states are best positioned to take advantage and what this decision could mean for the political map moving forward. And finally, Stu’s first thoughts on Janet Mills dropping her Maine Senate campaign for Nazi-tattoo enthusiast Graham Platner. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

49 min
29 AVR.

Supreme Court Just Flipped the Map on Democrats

Today’s Predictable with Stu Burguiere breaks down the Supreme Court ruling that just made the map game a lot harder for Democrats. What looks like a technical court decision could have real consequences for future elections, if you understand how this actually works. Stu explains the impact and analyzes how the markets reacted to the news. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

47 min
28 AVR.

Is the GOP Heading for a Midterm MASSACRE?

Stu Burguiere examines a new piece from the New York Times theorizing that Republicans are in major trouble heading into the 2026 midterm elections. But what do the markets say about that? And more importantly, what does your gut say about the smart plays in preparing for (and profiting from) a potentially earth-shattering election cycle? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

36 min
27 AVR.

Markets React to Latest Attempt on Trump’s Life

Stu Burguiere explores the prediction market reaction to the latest attempt on Donald Trump’s life at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. Plus, a look at the dangers of insider trading and how experts like CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig are expending every effort to keep the exchange of profits legal and safe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

29 min

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Stu Burguiere

Animation
Michael Selig

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Daniel Horowitz

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Carol Roth

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Chuck Holton

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Predictable with Stu Burguiere is a smarter, more useful way to follow the news, using prediction markets to break down what’s happening, why it’s happening and where it’s likely going next.