The DeFi Report

Michael Nadeau
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Our weekly show is hosted by Michael Nadeau (The DeFi Report) and Ryan Sean Adams (Bankless). Each week, we discuss how we approach managing our own portfolio and the data, research, and analytical frameworks that inform those decisions — for educational and informational purposes.

Épisodes

  1. Saylor is Back: How does this impact market structure?

    -4 J

    Saylor is Back: How does this impact market structure?

    Bitcoin is ripping while stocks and gold stall, and Michael Saylor just dropped billions into BTC. So… is this a real regime shift or just another 2022-style fake rally? Ryan and Mike break down the macro, why liquidity is quietly tightening, how Saylor’s new capital machine is changing market structure, and why this rally may not be as bullish as it looks. ----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy  ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.io/friends  https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:36 Bitcoin's Performance Amid Geopolitical Conflict 4:24 Global Liquidity and Its Implications 8:40 Inflation and Federal Reserve Challenges 12:38 Bitcoin Market Structure Analysis 19:23 Michael Saylor's Strategic Purchases 27:57 Exploring Hype and Market Trends 35:33 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    37 min
  2. Bitcoin Network Health Check: Assessing Thesis & New Risks

    11 MARS

    Bitcoin Network Health Check: Assessing Thesis & New Risks

    Mike and Ryan re-underwrite the Bitcoin thesis with a full network health check: hash rate, miner incentives, active addresses, ETF adoption, treasury firms, and BTC’s performance vs Nasdaq and gold. They also dig into the biggest risks ahead, including security budget pressure, miner concentration, and quantum computing, before explaining why they still view Bitcoin as a core portfolio asset this cycle. ----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy  ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.io/friends  https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 2:31 Institutional Insights on Bitcoin 4:24 Mining & Network Security 8:08 Fees & Block Rewards 11:20 Security Budget Risks 14:25 The Future of Mining 15:57 Address Trends & Activity 22:48 Institutional Adoption Surge 25:01 Treasury Firms & Bitcoin 28:03 Bitcoin vs. Other Assets 30:51 Quantum Computing Concerns 33:34 The Future of Bitcoin 36:43 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    43 min
  3. Deploy now or wait for Deep Value? (March 2026 Cycle Update)

    4 MARS

    Deploy now or wait for Deep Value? (March 2026 Cycle Update)

    Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s cycle awareness signals now that BTC has hit “fair value.” Using long-term holder supply in profit, MVRV, and the 200-week moving average, they compare today’s setup to the 2018 and 2022 bear markets and show how much returns changed when investors waited for “deep value.” Then they get practical on portfolio management: deploy now vs wait, how much cash to keep, and why Mike just made a second BTC buy while staying ready for a potential $50K to $55K scare. ----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy  ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.io/friends  https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 2:24 The Tension of Deployment 3:46 Market Positioning Updates 4:24 Cycle Awareness Indicators 7:17 The Impact of Fair vs. Deep Value 11:44 Market Value to Realized Value 15:49 Understanding the 200-Week Moving Average 18:48 Fair Value vs. Deep Value 20:21 Strategy for Navigating Uncertainty 24:26 Timing & Expectations for Deep Value 28:35 Managing Deployment Tensions 33:17 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    35 min
  4. Uncertainty Bubble? Tariffs, AI Tail Risks, & a BTC Market Structure Update

    25 FÉVR.

    Uncertainty Bubble? Tariffs, AI Tail Risks, & a BTC Market Structure Update

    Mike and Ryan unpack why “uncertainty” is starting to feel structural across markets: the Supreme Court tariff ruling, Trump’s workaround playbook, and what it all means for capital flows and bonds. Then they dig into the viral Citrini AI scenario and why the real signal is not the report itself, but Wall Street’s reaction and the widening range of outcomes. Finally, they run a Bitcoin market structure check, from long term holder behavior and ETF flows to miner stress, and explain why they’re still heavy cash and what would need to happen to trigger the next fat pitch. ----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:49 Bitcoin Market Structure Insights 8:26 Supreme Court Tariff Decisions 12:20 Impact on the Bond Market 12:31 AI & Investor Psychology 20:30 Structural Uncertainty in the Market 26:14 Bitcoin Market Structure Update 35:44 Closing Thoughts & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    36 min
  5. What is the bond market telling us?

    18 FÉVR.

    What is the bond market telling us?

    Mike and Ryan break down the bond market signals that are starting to flash risk off: a standout 30 year Treasury auction, falling real yields, and a 2 year yield below the Fed funds rate. They map today’s narrowing stock market breadth and Mag7 dispersion to the early stages of the dot com setup, then steel man the bull case with AI capex, bigger tax refunds, and potential tariff stimulus. Finally, they explain why Bitcoin may be a leading liquidity indicator for TradFi and walk through the portfolio positioning, including the heavy cash stance and what would trigger the next fat pitch. ----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy ----📣THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt ----TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro3:14 Analyzing the Bond Market Signals6:01 The Growth & Inflation Narrative9:38 Transitioning to Risk-Off Assets12:57 Equities: Are We in a Tech Bubble?15:13 Comparing Today to the Dot-Com Era19:10 Understanding Market Catalysts22:39 The Bull Case for AI Stocks26:52 Tax Refunds & Economic Impacts29:57 Consumer Behavior & Market Trends33:04 Portfolio Adjustments & Future Outlook35:24 Closing & Disclaimers ----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    37 min
  6. Where do we go from here?

    11 FÉVR.

    Where do we go from here?

    In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s sharp drop below $65K fair value and whether last week’s capitulation was the long-awaited fat pitch. They compare this cycle to 2018 and 2022, explain why the selloff has accelerated faster than past bears, and unpack what Mike means when he says spot markets are “tangled.” With 40% of supply held above $78K and heavy dip buying at $84K, they explore the risk of a relief rally into resistance and the potential for one more leg down toward the 200-week moving average. They close with details on TDR’s first deployment of the bear market, deep value targets, and how they’re scaling into positions while keeping dry powder ready. ---- 📣THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:09 Market Sentiment Shifts 3:28 Comparing Past Cycles 6:13 First Purchase of the Bear Market 7:49 Forced Selling & Market Reactions 12:50 Analyzing Market Structure 17:29 Understanding New Market Psychology 21:52 TDR's Strategic Allocation 27:47 Updates on the Watch List 31:28 Triggers for Altcoin Deployments 32:49 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    34 min
  7. What does the new Fed Chair mean for Crypto?

    4 FÉVR.

    What does the new Fed Chair mean for Crypto?

    In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down what Trump’s pick for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, could mean for crypto, and why a real regime shift might be back on the table. They unpack Warsh’s record as a Fed governor, his critique of QE and the swollen balance sheet, and the big question markets are not pricing: is the Fed Put still alive? Mike explains why he still views crypto as in a bear market, the onchain and cycle metrics he needs to see before going risk-on, and how a Nasdaq rollover tied to an AI unwind could drive the next leg lower. They close with fair value targets, downside scenarios, and what would finally flip Mike into buy mode. ----📣THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 2:15 The Bloodbath in Crypto Prices 2:52 Analyzing the New Fed Chair 7:21 Warsh's Views on Inflation 10:19 Trump & Warsh's Alignment 12:55 The Fed Put: A New Perspective 18:05 Constraints on Warsh's Policies 20:59 The Uncertainty of the Fed's Influence 21:50 Crypto's Bear Market Outlook 23:32 Metrics for Bitcoin's Recovery 25:27 Long-Term Holders' Market Behavior 27:13 The State of Bitcoin Miners 29:35 NASDAQ & Tech Sector Trends 32:54 The AI Bubble and Its Implications 35:35 The Potential for Market Unwind 39:39 ISM Data and Economic Signals 40:45 Mike's Risk-On Strategy Insights 42:41 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    44 min
  8. Why is Bitcoin Underperforming Gold?

    28 JANV.

    Why is Bitcoin Underperforming Gold?

    In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down why Bitcoin is underperforming gold, what the BTC/Gold ratio is signaling about the next bottom, and why this setup may be more bullish than it looks. They unpack China’s role in driving the gold trade, why Bitcoin still behaves like a risk-on asset, and how investor “envy” distorts cycle perception. Mike lays out realistic downside scenarios, key support levels to watch, and the onchain signals he needs to see before deploying capital. ----📣THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://www.youtube.com/@thedefireport https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 2:08 Bitcoin vs. Gold Ratio Analysis 8:19 Understanding Gold's Outperformance 13:12 China's Impact on Gold Demand 14:27 Bitcoin's Future as a Reserve Asset 16:27 Potential Bottom for Bitcoin Ratio 20:25 Market Sentiment & Investor Behavior 26:35 Onchain Metrics and Market Conditions 33:41 The Future of Real World Assets in Crypto 34:59 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    36 min
  9. Constructing a Portfolio

    21 JANV.

    Constructing a Portfolio

    In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan lay out Mike’s full portfolio construction framework for a crypto bear market. We walk through how he sizes Bitcoin as the anchor, how core and high-beta assets fit into the cycle, and why price matters more than narratives right now. Mike also shares fair value targets across nearly 30 assets, explains why most investors rush entries too early, and what signals he’s waiting for before going risk-on again. ----📣THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:50 Market Overview & Conditions 4:03 Constructing a Portfolio 7:00 Importance of Bitcoin 10:41 Core Assets Explained 13:26 Long-Term Holds Strategy 14:06 Risk-On Assets Discussion 17:36 Price Targets for Each Sleeve 20:54 Core Asset Candidates 29:13 Long-Term Holds & Watchlist 33:13 Meme Coins and Market Cycles 36:41 Analyzing the Watchlist 40:30 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    41 min
  10. Next Stop $100k?

    14 JANV.

    Next Stop $100k?

    Bitcoin is pushing toward $100K, but is the move real or just a positioning unwind? Mike and Ryan break down the CPI surprise, real rates and breakevens, why global liquidity still looks like it’s rolling over, and what the onchain data says about true demand, from ETF flows to long term holder selling, open interest, and funding. Mike explains what would convince him this rally can reclaim $100K as support, and why he’s still staying patient and largely in cash. ----📣THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:14 Next Stop: $100K Bitcoin? 1:10 Positive Price Action 4:54 Powell's Prosecution & Market Impact 6:08 Bitcoin's Moment? 9:14 Understanding Real Rates & CPI 12:19 Global Liquidity & Bitcoin 17:57 Onchain Data Insights 21:47 Market Demand Signals 26:14 Anticipating Market Reactions 32:15 Upcoming Assets on the Watchlist 35:44 Closing ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    35 min
  11. Our Outlook for 2026

    7 JANV.

    Our Outlook for 2026

    📣THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- Today on The DeFi Report, we’re mapping the 2026 setup: shifting fiscal flows, tighter liquidity, and why rate cuts are not automatically bullish for crypto. Mike stays risk off (80 percent cash) while he watches for the signals that would force a pivot, falling real yields, a dovish Fed, and Bitcoin reclaiming key levels. We also break down where we are in the market cycle, why a counter rally could be a trap, and what Mike’s $65K fair value target implies for positioning this year. ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:10 Setup for 2026 5:54 Macro & Liquidity Setup 8:46 2022 Comparison  11:40 U.S. Liquidity Cycle Insights 13:20 Bitcoin & Interest Rates 16:34 Labor Market Insights 18:49 Real Estate Trends 21:04 Midterm Year Implications 23:30 Asset Allocation Cycle 26:18 Crypto Cycle Analysis 29:38 Transition Phase in Crypto 34:23 Geopolitical X Factor 37:12 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    38 min
  12. Was the Fed Rate Cut a False Signal for Crypto?

    17/12/2025

    Was the Fed Rate Cut a False Signal for Crypto?

    The Fed cut rates and announced $40B/month in T bill purchases. Is that the signal to buy back into crypto? Mike says no. In this episode, we explain why “QE light” is not real easing, the key indicators Mike needs before flipping risk on, and what Bitcoin’s onchain market structure suggests about where this cycle could go next. ---- 📣THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Introduction to the DeFi Report 2:28 Current Market Positioning 9:25 Federal Reserve's Actions Explained 13:13 Economic Conditions & Predictions 18:35 Big Picture of Economic Strategy 23:17 Analyzing Bitcoin's Market Structure 29:57 Closing & Future Outlook ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    34 min
  • 12 épisodes

À propos

Our weekly show is hosted by Michael Nadeau (The DeFi Report) and Ryan Sean Adams (Bankless). Each week, we discuss how we approach managing our own portfolio and the data, research, and analytical frameworks that inform those decisions — for educational and informational purposes.

Informations

  • Création
    Michael Nadeau
  • Années d’activité
    2023 - 2026
  • Épisodes
    12
  • Classification
    Tous publics
  • Copyright
    © Michael Nadeau
  • Site web de l’émission
    The DeFi Report

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