A version of this essay was published by news18.com at https://www.news18.com/opinion/opinion-what-the-bjp-win-in-thiruvananthapuram-may-mean-or-may-not-9774658.html As a native son, I believe the BJP’s 50/101 seats in the Trivandrum Corporation in the recently concluded local body elections is an interesting outcome. But it must not be taken in isolation, and one must accept that this is neither a breakthrough for the BJP in the deep south, nor a mere footnote in the CPI(M)-Congress duopoly that has been the hallmark of Kerala politics. There are a lot of local factors, but yes, perhaps there is an underlying, nascent realignment. There is anti-incumbency: there used to be, like clockwork, one term for the UDF, one term for the LDF. But now, the CPI-M has been ruling for ten years in a row, and the voters may be fed up with them. In Trivandrum, for instance, the outgoing mayor, Arya Rajendran, who is in her 20s, has a well-deserved reputation for arrogance. Tellingly, she did not campaign in 2025. But there is more. There are at least four extraordinary factors at play here: One is the vanity that Kerala politics is somehow superior to politics elsewhere in (southern) India, because, you know, it is the 100% literate state. This is far from the truth. Mere literacy, that is, knowing the syntax of written language, does not guarantee you understand the semantics, that is, the ability to think critically rather than be gaslighted. The average Kerala voter is as easily manipulated as any other. Second, regional tensions. Kerala consists of three distinct regions: northern Malabar, which was under British rule, which meant it was plundered and underdeveloped. It also is Muslim-dominated. Central Kochi, which was a moderately dynamic dynasty, and is Christian-dominated. Southern Travancore, which was under a strong dynasty (but came under the sway of the British), and is Hindu majority. Third, the erstwhile consensus around ‘secularism’ is fraying: it is now increasingly seen as merely a shibboleth meant to hypnotize the Hindu community into caste-based internecine conflict and keep it a permanent underclass, with fewer rights than those of other religions. Hindus are still fighting 19th century battles in the 21st century. The shocking neglect, occasional desecration of, and outright large-scale theft from, major temples such as Sabarimala may now be turning into a bit of an issue for the lay Hindu. Fourth, after half a century of left-wing politics, it is becoming increasingly clear to the average Keralite that it is being left behind in development and prosperity. At independence, Travancore in particular was far ahead of the rest of India in key metrics like infant mortality, female literacy, and infrastructure. But anti-business socialism has led to de-industrialization, forced migration of Keralites in search of jobs, and high inflation, while other states are passing Kerala by. On top of all this, there is the rampant politicization of everything (for example, government jobs do not go to those who have high ranks in the State Public Service Commission selection exams, but to party cadres). There is a truly bizarre situation where two parties, both in the INDI Alliance all over the country (CPI-M and Congress), pretend to be rivals in Kerala, and do charades and shadow-boxing, although they do tactical voting to prevent the BJP from winning. It startles me to hear that there is a Left (CPI-M) and a Right (Congress) in Kerala, according to pundits. In reality, they are an Extreme-Left party and a Far-Left party, respectively. Indeed, even the BJP, which is spoken of as Far-Right is a Center-Left party, so severely distorted is the discourse – the median is Far-Left. To an impartial observer, the only way the Congress in Kerala can be termed a Right-wing party is that it appeases its vote-bank, the Christians, although the FC Nairs also traditionally vote for them. The Communists, whose rank and file are mostly made up of the OBC Ezhavas, increasingly are dominated by the needs of their Malabar Muslim vote-bank. So in a twisted sort of way, both these Left parties pander to the Conservative sentiments of these religious groups. This has real-life consequences, which Travancore voters are seeing increasingly clearly. The last major investment in Trivandrum was the ISRO’s Vikram Sarabhai Space Center, which was required to be on the magnetic equator. After that, the National Institute of Technology went to Kozhikode (in Malabar). The Indian Institute of Management went to Kozhikode (in Malabar). The Indian Institute of Technology went to Palakkad (in Malabar). The AIIMS is also likely to go to Malabar or Kochi. A metro system was given to Kochi, even though Trivandrum has an equal or better claim in terms of population size and other metrics. Successive UDF and LDF governments have sat on the proposal for Trivandrum’s metro (incidentally Kozhikode is also in the same boat). Trivandrum airport saw zero development for 40 years from 1960. Staggeringly, the Trivandrum port (Vizhinjam) was also delayed for 40 years, even though the deepwater container transhipment port there is now on track to handle a lot of India’s container cargo, which now goes to Colombo. Instead, 4400 crores were spent on a container port at Kochi, which has only 8 meters draft and cannot compete with Colombo. Trivandrum/Vizhinjam has 24 meters in depth, which means literally the largest container ship in the world, MSC Irina, with 24,000 containers on board, can and in fact has called at this port. The LDF government twisted Adani Ports’ arm and moved their logistics park for Vizhinjam, which Adani runs on contract, 200 km away to Kochi! In addition, the road and rail approaches to the port, which are necessary for ‘gateway’ or upcountry containers from/to say Bangalore or Hyderabad, have been delayed for a long time over trivial land acquisition issues. These lapses are glaring, and add up to step-motherly treatment for Trivandrum. There must be a lot of resentment among the voters here about this, because their real estate values would go up quite a lot if Vizhinjam’s business improves, and there will be jobs related to logistics, bunkering, cruise lines, and so on. Under the Sagarmala initiative, this is something that Trivandrum voters hope the Union Government will push forward, along with a proposed Tri-Services Maritime Command: thus both military and civil infrastructure may bring benefits. Finally, the excesses against Hindu temples, which are ruled by the Devaswom Board, packed with party cadres who may well be hostile atheists, are getting exposed broadly. There is a tradition prohibiting the entry of women between 10 and 60 years of age (ie. of childbearing age) into the shrine, which the women devotees in Kerala are broadly okay with, and don’t feel particularly discriminated against. The Kerala government made a huge fuss over it, and attempted to smuggle in both non-believing women and non-Hindu women into the temple. This has troubled some of the CPI-M’s traditional voters, for example the hitherto blase Ezhavas. As the attacks on Hindus continue, there is a bit of a counter-consolidation as well. There is no end: there is the huge current scandal of the theft of gold from the temple doors and dwarapalaka statues in Sabarimala (along with similar desecration in Guruvayur). There is an ongoing investigation, which ought to, if pursued properly, implicate highly connected political players. But recently, there have been instances of prosecutorial misconduct that mean likely criminals get away with, er, murder. Sowmya’s alleged murderer Charlie Thomas aka Govindachamy was let off death row, because the prosecutor did not make a good enough case. An actor, Dileep, who allegedly took out a contract for a thug to rape an actress in a moving car, was let off. You guessed it, the prosecution did not make a good enough case. Incidentally, Christian churches with vast landholdings (a good bit of which was 99-year leases given during British days which has now, magically, turned into freehold), or Muslim mosques and other Waqf claimants rarely face the wrath of the State. Yes, there is a case wending its way through the courts about the peninsula of Munambam which is home to 600 families, mostly Christian fisherman, but is claimed in its entirety as a Waqf property. A net reflection of all this is that urban Hindus have begun to rethink their political views. There is a strong urban-rural divide as seen in the just-conducted local body polls. The urban, so to speak, constituencies have seen the vice-like grip of the LDF diminish a bit, but they remain strong in the rural areas. This is borne out by conversations with the rural poor, who talk about kshema pensions, NREGA, and so on as benefits they get from the State government. What this suggests is that anti-incumbency is playing its part; but the likely outcome is a return to the Tweedledum-Tweedledee “throw the rascals out every five years” syndrome of years past. The BJP is unlikely to make any quick inroads into this; they may not get many Assembly seats in 2026, and they are unlikely to get more than a couple of Lok Sabha seats in 2029. Yet, as for obvious reasons there is a Right-ward lurch in Europe, with the rise of AfD in Germany, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France, and Nigel Farrage’s Reform UK, and these parties are no longer easily put behind a cordon sanitaire, the BJP in Kerala is not any longer completely unelectable. The voters are beginning to see that it is not completely er… untouchable. It will be a long, painful journey, but maybe in a decade or two, the BJP can become a realistic opposition party in Kerala. To do this in the extreme South, in the very bastion of the Communists, as well as in a State with very large non-Hindu populations, would be quite an achievement for them. We shall have to wait and see if they ha
