The Battery Show

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A Crux Investor show giving you a guide to all things battery metals with Mark Selby and other industry experts.

  1. vor 5 Tagen

    Copper’s New Era: From Cyclical Commodity to Strategic Lifeline

    Recording date: 25th June 2026 Copper is rapidly transitioning from a cyclical industrial metal to a strategically critical resource, driven by structural shifts in global demand and geopolitics. While historically tied to economic growth and urbanisation, copper is now central to defence systems, electrification, renewable energy, and the expansion of AI-driven data infrastructure. These emerging demand drivers are policy-backed and significantly more durable than traditional cycles. In this episode, we're joined by Barry O'Shea, CEO of Highland Copper, to discuss what this shift means for the industry and for his company's flagship Copperwood development in Michigan. In the United States, this shift has exposed a structural vulnerability: insufficient domestic mine supply combined with limited refining capacity. For decades, the US has relied on imports, while China has systematically secured global copper supply chains. As geopolitical tensions reshape trade dynamics, the US is increasingly prioritising domestic production through financial incentives, including grants and concessional debt from agencies such as the Department of Defense and EXIM Bank. However, supply cannot respond quickly. New mining projects in the US often take up to 20 years to reach production due to lengthy permitting, financing, and construction timelines. This creates a structural bottleneck that higher prices alone cannot resolve. As a result, advanced-stage, fully permitted projects have become scarce and strategically valuable. One such project is Highland Copper’s Copperwood development in Michigan. With an estimated capital cost of $400 million and a relatively high ore grade of 1.5%, the project is targeting a construction decision in early 2027. It has secured strong local support and is progressing through state-level regulation, avoiding more complex federal processes. Meanwhile, copper prices are reflecting tightening supply. Long-term price expectations have risen to around $5 per pound, up from $3.75–$4 in recent years, while spot prices are trading between $6 and $6.50. This improving price environment, combined with rising institutional and government backing, positions advanced copper projects to benefit from a market increasingly defined by scarcity rather than surplus. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

    30 Min.

  2. 10. Juni

    Nickel Market Faces New Reality as Indonesia’s Ore Quality Slips and Costs Rise

    Recording date: 9th June 2026 The global nickel market is entering a more complex phase, driven largely by structural changes in Indonesia, the world’s dominant supplier. A sharp decline in Indonesian ore grades has emerged as a key concern. Average nickel content fell from about 1.66% in 2024 to 1.52% in 2025, with most traded material now in the 1.3–1.4% range. This shift reduces the amount of recoverable nickel per tonne and raises processing costs, putting pressure on margins across the value chain. It also narrows the quality gap with alternative suppliers such as the Philippines, which is gaining relative competitiveness. At the same time, Indonesia is tightening its grip on the sector through policy tools. The government has introduced a sovereign-linked entity to route commodity transactions, primarily to improve tax compliance, particularly among offshore operators. While aimed at transparency, this added layer of oversight introduces new regulatory considerations for market participants. Quota management remains another powerful lever: production caps have already forced some operators, such as Weda Bay, to suspend mining after exhausting allocations, with restarts tied to regulatory compliance. These measures appear to support a managed price environment, with authorities informally targeting a nickel price range of $18,000 to $21,000 per tonne in the near term. Beyond Indonesia, a pickup in mergers and acquisitions signals renewed strategic interest in nickel assets following a period of weak prices. Companies like Lifezone Metals and Sherritt International are reportedly attracting bids, reflecting expectations of tighter future supply. Meanwhile, emerging technologies are adding a new dimension. Pilot projects exploring geological hydrogen production from nickel-bearing rocks highlight potential alternative value streams, though technical and commercial viability remains under evaluation. Overall, declining ore quality, stronger state oversight, and evolving investment activity are reshaping the nickel market’s medium-term outlook. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

    16 Min.

  3. 15. Mai

    Precious Metals Royalties Are Booming - Are Battery Metals Next?

    Interview with Brendan Yurik, CEO, Electric Royalties Our previous interview: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/electric-royalties-ltd-tsxvelec-43-royalties-with-multiple-catalysts-ahead-9474 Recording date: 14th May 2026 The royalty and streaming sector is showing a sharp divide, with precious metals attracting strong investor capital while battery metals companies struggle for attention despite solid fundamentals. Electric Royalties CEO Brendan Yurik highlights this imbalance, noting that lithium prices have risen 80% over the past year—matching gold—while copper trades near record highs. Yet, unlike gold, battery metals have not seen comparable investment flows. This gap is largely driven by investor familiarity and perceived risk. Gold benefits from its long-standing reputation as a stable store of value, while many critical minerals such as manganese, graphite, and vanadium remain poorly understood. Battery metals also face concerns around price volatility, evolving technologies, and past project failures, including significant cost overruns that have undermined confidence. However, the sector is maturing. Pricing transparency has improved significantly, supply chains are stabilizing, and technical knowledge has advanced as more projects move into production. Yurik believes these developments will reduce risk and limit extreme price swings seen in earlier years. A major driver of future demand is the rapid growth of artificial intelligence, which is expected to increase copper consumption by 50% over the next two decades. This adds to existing demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and grid expansion—creating a strong long-term growth outlook for battery metals that contrasts with gold’s relatively static demand profile. Electric Royalties positions itself as deeply undervalued, with a market capitalization under $20 million despite a portfolio that could significantly enhance the value of much larger mining companies. As new investors enter the mining sector—initially drawn by gold—there is potential for capital to gradually shift toward critical minerals as understanding improves. Overall, the battery metals royalty sector appears to be at an inflection point, combining strong demand growth with improving market fundamentals, yet still awaiting broader investor recognition. Learn more: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/companies/electric-royalties Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

    19 Min.

  4. 15. Mai

    Nickel’s Long-Term Bull Cycle Gains Momentum Amid Supply Constraints

    Recording date: 12th May 2026 The global nickel market is showing notable stability, with prices holding within a narrow band of $18,500 to $20,000 per ton and currently hovering just below $19,000. This resilience is largely driven by structural changes in supply management, particularly from Indonesia, the world’s dominant nickel producer. In coordination with the Philippines, Indonesia has adopted policies to better control supply and support pricing, marking a shift away from historically volatile market dynamics. A key feature of Indonesia’s strategy is the redistribution of value within the supply chain. Domestic mining companies now receive roughly 50% higher revenues per ton of ore, while government tax intake has increased significantly. These gains have largely come at the expense of foreign—especially Chinese—processing firms. The alignment of economic interests among miners and policymakers makes these policies difficult to reverse, reinforcing a higher long-term price floor. At the same time, the nickel market faces a deep structural supply constraint. Despite demand rising tenfold since the 1980s to nearly five million tons annually, there have been no major new laterite discoveries. Most viable reserves remain concentrated in Indonesia, limiting diversification of global supply. Western project pipelines are especially thin, with few advanced developments competing for investment capital. Amid this backdrop, Canada Nickel has reached a major milestone, completing draft permitting requirements after a four-year process and targeting final approval in early summer. This positions the project to benefit from Canada’s recently announced $25 billion funding initiative for critical minerals. Meanwhile, industry developments—including sanctions impacting Sherritt’s Cuban operations and progress in deep-sea mining—highlight both geopolitical risks and emerging alternatives. Overall, constrained supply, strategic policy shifts, and limited new projects point to a supportive medium-term outlook for nickel prices. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

    14 Min.

  5. 29. Apr.

    Nickel Enters a New Era as Indonesia Tightens Supply and Prices Surge

    Recording date: 28th April 2026 The global nickel market has entered a structural transformation, shifting from cyclical volatility to a tightly managed pricing paradigm. Driven by tightening supply and rising input costs, nickel prices have surged to $19,200 per ton, firmly on track toward an anticipated target range of $20,000 to $21,000. At the heart of this shift is Indonesia, the world’s dominant nickel producer, which has effectively assumed a quasi-OPEC role. By replacing its three-year ore quota system with one-year allocations, Indonesian authorities can now dynamically control market supply. The immediate impact of this strategy is already visible: Eramet recently placed its Weda Bay mining operation on care and maintenance after exhausting its 12-million-ton annual quota. Indonesia’s strategy appears carefully calibrated to stabilize prices around the $20,000 to $21,000 mark. This sweet spot ensures highly attractive margins for domestic producers while remaining safely below the $22,000 threshold required to incentivize the restart of competing Western Australian operations. Compounding the supply squeeze are skyrocketing input costs across the supply chain. Sulfur prices have surged past $1,000 per ton—a drastic climb from $150 just 18 months ago. For high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) producers, these soaring costs add $1,000 to $1,200 per ton to production expenses. This cost-push inflation is further exacerbated by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which threatens critical sulfur imports. Meanwhile, globally-watched LME nickel inventories have dropped by 10,000 tons over the past two months, signaling a rapidly tightening market. On the demand side, a recent 4% to 5% increase in stainless steel prices is triggering strong restocking cycles, which is expected to sustain healthy consumption through the year-end despite broader economic uncertainties. As Western nations defensively react—highlighted by Canada’s new $25 billion sovereign wealth fund for critical minerals—the industry must navigate a new era where strategic state management heavily dictates global prices. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

    16 Min.

  6. 18. März

    Copper Bottomed - How Geopolitical Risks May Favour Certain Copper Jurisdictions

    Recording date: 13th March 2026 The global copper market faces an unprecedented supply crisis as development timelines have tripled from six years in the 1990s to 18 years currently, with the United States experiencing delays of 29 years from discovery to production. This dramatic expansion in project timelines comes as 52% of copper projects at feasibility stage remain stalled, with 75% of delays attributed to social and environmental opposition rather than economic or technical challenges. Current market dynamics present a complex picture. Copper prices remain elevated at approximately $5.81 per pound, yet inventory levels across global exchanges have reached historic highs exceeding one million tons. While these elevated stockpiles typically signal potential price corrections, underlying supply constraints suggest a tightening market ahead, particularly as the US government's $12 billion critical minerals reserve program may absorb portions of existing inventories. Geopolitical disruptions compound supply concerns. The Straits of Hormuz closure has created a sulfuric acid shortage, with Gulf region supplies representing 44% of global seaborne sulfur. Middle Eastern spot prices have surged 200% year-over-year, threatening African oxide copper producers in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo who depend entirely on imported sulfuric acid for hydrometallurgical processing operations. Analysis of 77 major copper mines reveals a troubling paradox: while brownfield exploration successfully expanded resource bases by 75% since 2010, actual production increased merely 4% due to 14% grade degradation. This disconnect illustrates that resource growth fails to translate into proportional production increases as operations must process significantly greater tonnage at lower grades. A "renewable energy paradox" has emerged whereby jurisdictions with highest metal demand—driven by wind, solar infrastructure, and advanced economy consumption—maintain the strictest environmental regulations, effectively preventing domestic mining development. Against this backdrop, Chile has emerged as the preferred jurisdiction, offering established mining culture, existing infrastructure, and streamlined permitting relative to global peers, potentially supporting valuation premiums for well-positioned projects with near-term production pathways. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

    37 Min.

  7. 25. Feb.

    Nickel Market Faces Structural Shift as Top Producers Coordinate Supply Discipline

    Recording date: 24th February 2026 The nickel market is experiencing a structural shift as Indonesia and the Philippines move toward coordinated supply management, driving prices above $18,000 per ton in late February 2026. This represents a nearly 5% single-day gain and marks a significant departure from the price pressure that has characterized the market over the previous three years. The most dramatic development involves Indonesia's aggressive quota reduction for Eramet, one of the world's largest nickel producers. The Indonesian government slashed Eramet's ore quota from 42 million tons to 12 million tons, effectively removing approximately 300,000 tons of nickel from the market—roughly 10% of global supply. This action demonstrates Indonesia's commitment to supply discipline and may signal a pattern of targeting publicly reporting Western companies that must disclose such cuts, while reductions affecting private Indonesian operators remain invisible to markets. Indonesia and the Philippines have formalized their cooperation through the Indo Nickel Corridor, a working group established between the mining associations of both countries. While not officially a cartel, this coordination between the world's two largest nickel ore suppliers represents a fundamental shift in market dynamics. The Philippines supplies over 300,000 tons annually, and joint coordination aims to ensure producers can achieve profitable returns rather than oversupplying a limited resource. Physical market indicators are confirming the price rally's sustainability. Philippine ore prices to Indonesia have increased notably, and the Philippine rainy season running through March typically constrains ore availability, supporting expectations for prices in the $18,500 to $20,000 range through the first quarter. Additional supply disruptions, including Sherritt International's operational curtailments in Cuba due to fuel shortages, are adding marginal tightness. Meanwhile, improved investor sentiment is evident in successful capital raises by junior nickel companies and Vale's sale of its Thompson asset to Exiro Minerals, which has committed several hundred million dollars to revive production at the long-declining operation. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

    15 Min.

  8. 9. Feb.

    Nickel Market Eyes $20,000 as Supply Discipline Meets Surging Demand

    Recording date: 5th February 2026 The nickel market is establishing a more constructive outlook in early 2026, supported by Indonesian supply discipline and robust demand fundamentals. In a recent market discussion, Canada Nickel CEO Mark Selby outlined the key factors driving nickel prices and provided updates on the company's flagship Crawford project. Nickel prices have settled into a $16,500-$18,500 per ton trading range after briefly exceeding $19,000 in early January. The strength is underpinned by Indonesia's commitment to flat-to-down ore production targets of 250-260 million tons for 2026. This supply discipline, combined with prices for nickel ore, nickel pig iron, and stainless steel all reaching three-year highs, indicates genuine market tightening rather than speculative positioning. Selby expects nickel to move toward $20,000 per ton within the coming month as production data confirms Indonesian adherence to its targets. The country's strategy balances maximizing royalty revenues and improving trade balances while preventing prices from rising high enough to incentivize significant new global production. Indonesia has latitude to manage supply up to the $22,000 per ton range before triggering meaningful supply responses. Electric vehicle demand continues driving market growth, with underlying expansion of approximately 20% annually. Europe posted 30% growth, China 17%, and the rest of world 48%, as the lithium supply chain completes its destocking phase. Combined with stainless steel demand, the nickel market requires approximately 200,000 tons of new annual supply—equivalent to seven Crawford phase-one projects—just to meet 6-7% demand growth. Canada Nickel announced two significant milestones: appointing Ausenco as lead engineer for the Crawford project's process plant and infrastructure, and securing expanded bridge financing from Auramet. These developments position the company to target construction commencement by year-end 2026, subject to finalizing government partnerships. The limited pipeline of new nickel districts globally makes projects like Crawford increasingly valuable as Indonesian grade constraints emerge toward decade-end. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

    19 Min.
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A Crux Investor show giving you a guide to all things battery metals with Mark Selby and other industry experts.

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