The Dividend Mailbox®

Greg Denewiler

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Monatlich

We want to stuff your mailbox with dividends! Our goal is to show you the power of dividend growth investing, and for each year's check to be larger than the last. We analyze specific companies and look at the mindset this strategy requires to be successful long-term. Come explore this not-so-boring world and watch your portfolio's value compound.

vor 3 Tagen

IBM & Chevron: Taking the Long View on Optionality vs. Durability

A century-old tech company just took a gut punch from Wall Street. A century-old oil giant hasn't had an exciting headline in years. Ten years from now, which one do you actually want to own? In this episode, Greg takes the long view on two very different dividend payers. The first is IBM ($IBM), a stock that ran from the low $200s to a high near $325 over the past year as its quantum computing story caught fire. It then dropped back to around $205 after disappointing contract delays spooked the market. Greg walks through why the selloff isn't the end of the story: IBM's debt has improved, revenue is growing again after years of stagnation, and at roughly 17 times earnings, he argues investors are no longer paying for the quantum computing option. The second is Chevron ($CVX), a stock with none of IBM's drama and, in Greg's view, almost all of the certainty. Diversified across exploration, refining, and chemicals, with a dividend track record that held even when oil prices went negative in 2020, Chevron represents a different kind of long-term bet. It's not a call option on a breakthrough, but a compounding cash flow machine that is also a quiet beneficiary of AI. Two very different companies, one shared idea: real wealth is built by holding through the boring years, not by chasing the exciting ones. TOPICS COVERED [00:41] Introduction: Two Long-Term Stories, Two Different Bets [03:04] IBM ($IBM): From Story Stock to Speed Bump [04:47] Inside IBM's Business: Software, Consulting, and Red Hat [08:41] The Quantum Computing Bet Behind the Stock [13:44] IBM's 10-Year Dividend Growth Math [16:24] Chevron ($CVX): The Cash Flow Machine [18:17] Chevron's Dividend Track Record and Financial Strength [20:40] Diversification: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemicals [21:15] Chevron as a Natural Gas and AI Play [23:49] Why Chevron Over Exxon ($XOM)? [25:45] Two Long Views, One Lesson in Patience [28:02] Final Takeaway: It's All About the Waiting ________ 📖 Free Book: Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here. 📰 Monthly Newsletter: Observations on the Market 📧 Questions or comments: dcm.team@growmydollar.com Send us Fan Mail ________ Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________ Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.
24. Juni

What Is the Market? Why Your Definition Shapes Your Returns

The news says the market is down, up, sideways... but which market? The Dow, the S&P 500, SCHD, gold, real estate—on any given day, they're all doing something different. If you don't know which market is actually yours, sooner or later, one of the others will seduce you into a move you'll regret. In Episode 60, Greg takes on a question that sounds almost too simple: What is the market? Using six real-world examples—from dividend ETFs to Denver office towers to SpaceX ($SPCX)—he shows how dramatically different markets can move in completely opposite directions at the same time and why investors who haven't clearly defined their market tend to react to the wrong signals at the worst possible moments. The clearest example is SCHD, Schwab's dividend ETF. From 2022 through 2025, it lagged the S&P 500 by a wide margin in three of four years—enough to break most investors. Then 2026 hits: SCHD is up nearly 20%, and the S&P is under 9%. The investors who stayed were right all along. They just had to get comfortable with 3 years of underperformance to realize the benefit. Greg explains why that gap—between being right and feeling right—is where a lot of investors lose focus. The same pattern runs through two 29-story office towers in downtown Denver that sold for $5 million total, while the equivalent square footage five miles away in Cherry Creek would fetch over $63 million. Or Microsoft ($MSFT), which swung from $550 to $355 to $460 to $390 in a single year while its dividend grew at 10% annually without interruption. Price and value are not the same thing—and once you know which market you're actually in, the noise from every other market gets a lot easier to ignore. All kinds of “markets” can work. The investors who build wealth aren't necessarily picking the best one; they're staying committed to the one that works for them. Topics Covered: [00:11] Introduction & 5th Year Anniversary [03:06] What Is "The Market"? Defining the Question [06:04] SCHD vs. S&P 500: Four Years, Two Very Different Outcomes [10:00] The Three Tiers of Dividend Investing [12:53] Denver Real Estate: Same City, Two Different Markets [19:28] Gold: A Market With Its Own Rules [21:35] SpaceX: When Valuation Defies Convention [24:19] Microsoft ($MSFT): Price vs. Value in Real Time [27:30] Takeaway: Pick Your Battles, Win the War [31:34] Close: Get on the Line and Stay on the Line (GDP Eventually Goes Up) ________ 📖 Free Book: Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here. 📰 Monthly Newsletter: Observations on the Market 📧 Questions or comments: dcm.team@growmydollar.com Send us Fan Mail ________ Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________ Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.
23. Mai

Second-Level Thinking: Why Dividend Stocks Win in the Age of AI

Everyone's talking about what AI is going to disrupt. The question most investors aren't asking: What happens after that disruption, and who actually wins? The obvious answer and the right answer are rarely the same thing. In this episode, Greg introduces a framework he first encountered through Howard Marks: first-level vs. second-level thinking. First-level thinking reacts to what's in front of you. Second-level thinking follows the chain of consequences and the ripple effects most people ignore. In an era where AI can reshape an industry in months, the gap between those two ways of thinking has never been more costly to ignore. From there, Greg walks through real portfolio positions—Intel (INTC) and Accenture (ACN)—to show how second-level thinking plays out in practice. He also runs through a handful of names—Union Pacific (UNP), UPS (UPS), GE Vernova (GEV), Chevron (CVX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), General Dynamics (GD), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Merck (MRK)—to illustrate which kinds of businesses AI threatens, which ones it quietly strengthens, and why some of the most "boring" dividend stocks may be the most defensible investments of the next decade. The core argument: brands, software, and moats built on perception are vulnerable. Logistics, infrastructure, and physical production are not, and AI may actually make them stronger. Topics Covered: [00:41] Introduction & why AI matters for dividend investors [04:47] First-level vs. second-level thinking — the Howard Marks framework [08:43] AI is accelerating disruption — and may be technology's own worst enemy [11:21] Are strong brands and moats as durable as we thought? [13:50] Why physical infrastructure may be the best AI defense [15:19] Intel ($INTC) — patience, conviction, and the US chip story [18:16] Accenture ($ACN) — the market's fear may be first-level thinking [22:21] Union Pacific ($UNP), UPS ($UPS) — logistics AI can't replace [24:27] Rapid-fire second-level takes: GEV, CVX, LMT, GD, JNJ, MRK [28:08] Final takeaway: the game has changed, sustainable dividend growth requires a new lens ________ Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing. Send us Fan Mail ________ Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________ Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.
23. Apr.

It Was Never About "Dividends." It Was Always About Income.

Real estate investors don't think of themselves as dividend investors. Neither do venture capitalists or business owners collecting profit distributions. But strip away the labels, and every one of them is doing the same thing: buying a stream of income and betting it grows. The wrapper is different. The logic is identical. To prove it, Greg walks through three real investments, all made in 2013, with the same $535 million starting point: Republic Plaza (one of Denver’s premier office towers), Sysco ($SYY), and DCM’s own Model Portfolio. In year one, the building won on income. Today, thirteen years later, it's generating the least of the three, and the building itself has lost nearly half its value. The model portfolio, which started with the lowest income, now generates the most. The difference wasn't asset class. It was whether the income grew. That compounding gap is what Greg calls the "second decade effect"—the point where a growing income stream laps a higher but stagnant one. It's also why income focus gives investors something price-chasing never can: control, predictability, and a reason to stay put when markets get uncomfortable. Topics Covered: [00:00] Introduction & the "income mailbox" reframe [01:34] Why the word "dividend" misleads investors [04:26] The foundation: every investment is a bet on cash flow [06:09] Three investments, same $535 million starting point, 2013 [09:17] Thirteen years later: how each one performed [13:59] The "second decade effect" — why growing income wins over time [17:48] Two mindsets: growing income vs. speculating on price [20:11] What the NYSE closing bell taught Greg about how investors think [24:38] Dividends vs. buybacks: why income creates capital discipline [28:42] Three takeaways and final thoughts ________ Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing. ________ Send us Fan Mail ________ Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________ Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.
2. Apr.

EXPRESS MAIL: Sysco Drops ~15% after $29 Billion Bet — Dividend Growth at Risk?

Sysco ($SYY) just announced the acquisition of Restaurant Depot in a $29 billion deal — and the market didn't like it. The stock fell more than $10 in a single day, briefly dipping below $70. Did this deal break the dividend growth story… or create a rare opportunity for long-term investors? Most acquisitions destroy shareholder value, but this one is more complicated. The deal expands Sysco's revenue base by roughly 20%, targets a complementary customer segment, and appears reasonably priced on a free cash flow basis. But it also introduces meaningful risks—rising debt, pressure on credit quality, and a near-term dividend growth story that looks very different from what it did a week ago. Greg walks through the numbers, the strategic rationale, and the trade-offs investors need to consider. More importantly, he tackles the core dilemma: how do you balance dividend growth discipline with total return potential when a high-quality business enters a gray area? Topics Covered: [00:00:41] Overview of Sysco’s $29B acquisition [00:02:13] Restaurant Depot’s niche and why the deal could work [00:05:24] Valuation breakdown: Did Sysco overpay or get a fair deal? [00:07:45] Debt impact, interest costs, and credit rating risks [00:11:11] Deleveraging plan and what it means for financial flexibility [00:12:18] Dividend outlook: Why growth may stall in the near term [00:14:24] Valuation opportunity, execution track record, and upside potential [00:15:26] The core dilemma: balancing dividend growth vs total return ________ Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing. Send us Fan Mail ________ Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________ Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.
23. März

What’s Your Anchor? Dividends in an Uncertain Market

Markets feel uncertain. Headlines are driving sentiment. Oil prices are volatile, and cracks are forming in private credit, making high yield look more attractive than ever. But is that yield actually protecting you, or pulling you into risk? In this episode, Greg looks at three real-world examples to examine how income behaves under pressure and what that reveals about portfolio stability. We break down private credit and the hidden risks behind high yields and limited liquidity, evaluate Campbell’s ($CPB) and whether its elevated dividend is sustainable amid weakening fundamentals, and revisit Chevron ($CVX) as a case study in durable, growing income during oil market volatility. Along the way, we explore why rising yield can be a warning sign, how cash flow drives long-term returns, and what separates sustainable dividend growth from income traps. Because when volatility rises, the goal isn’t to predict the next move. It’s to stay anchored. Topics Covered [00:11] Introduction [03:31] Market Volatility & Investor Sentiment [04:47] Private Credit Risks & High Yield Illusion [11:04] Campbell’s ($CPB): High-Yield Warning Signs [17:17] Chevron ($CVX): Dividend Stability in Oil Volatility [26:38] Berkshire Hathaway: Reminder on the Importance of Cash Flow [29:11] The Dividend Anchor & Final Takeaways ________ Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing. Send us Fan Mail ________ Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________ Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.
24. Feb.

From Lagging to Leading: When Success Gets Complicated

Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing. ________ After a year of lagging the S&P 500, dividend investors are finally playing catch-up. Income is growing. Prices are rising. Total returns are improving. But success brings a new challenge: what happens when valuations rise, yields fall, and future returns get harder to find? In this episode, Greg explores the hidden downside of success in dividend growth investing. With dividend stocks outperforming early in 2026 and capital rotating out of growth and AI, he explains why rising prices create a new challenge: redeploying capital without sacrificing long-term returns. He revisits income growth vs. total return, explains why cash flow acts as the anchor in volatile markets, and walks through why sometimes the best move is to do nothing. He also contrasts chasing yield with sustainable compounding, including why shifting into Treasuries for higher income can miss the bigger picture. The second half of the episode moves into real portfolio examples—showing what “sell,” “hold,” and “buy” look like in practice: Why Emerson Electric ($EMR) no longer fits the model What Clorox’s ($CLX) acquisition strategy could mean for dividend growth How Hershey ($HSY) shows patience through commodity cycles Why Accenture ($ACN) represents a redeployment opportunity Long-term success isn’t about chasing what’s working today. It’s about discipline, letting income compound, and trusting that if cash flow grows, prices follow. Topics Covered: [00:11] Introduction [03:45] Income growth vs. total return investing [07:24] Why dividend income is the anchor [09:52] Valuation risk and redeployment challenges [10:22] Buffett, patience, and portfolio discipline [11:38] Treasuries vs. dividend stocks: yield vs. growth [13:03] Cash flow as the North Star [15:26] Emerson Electric ($EMR): selling a winner [20:03] Clorox ($CLX): acquisition risk and dividend sustainability [27:40] Hershey ($HSY): commodity cycles and patience [32:03] Accenture ($ACN): dividend growth opportunity [35:11] Redeploying capital in rising markets [36:07] Final takeaway: consistency and long-term compounding Send us Fan Mail ________ Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________ Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.
24. Jan.

The One Number That Drives Long-Term Returns

Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. Markets get noisy. Numbers get confusing. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here. Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing. ________ If you could only look at one number to judge whether a dividend can keep growing for decades, what would it be? In this episode, we strip investing back to first principles. Greg talks about why investors get overwhelmed with data and how focusing on the wrong metrics can quietly lead you off track. Using a simple hot dog stand analogy, he explains why familiar numbers like return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) can distort reality, especially when leverage enters the picture. From there, he introduces return on invested capital (ROIC) and shows why it does a better job connecting business quality to long-term dividend growth. Later, Greg addresses what ROIC can’t tell you and why context always matters. Along the way, he walks through real-world examples, including Kraft Heinz ($KHC), Southern Company ($SO), Williams-Sonoma ($WSM), and Microsoft ($MSFT), to show how capital allocation decisions compound over time. [00:11] Introduction [02:50] Information overload and the danger of focusing on the wrong numbers [04:40] The hot dog stand: ROA vs. ROE and the role of leverage [08:15] Why both ROA and ROE can mislead dividend investors [09:35] Return on invested capital (ROIC) explained in plain English [13:30] ROIC, cost of capital, and long-term value creation [14:55] Case study: Kraft Heinz and why high yield can be a trap [18:30] Case study: Southern Company and when low returns still “work” [22:10] Case study: Williams-Sonoma and disciplined capital allocation [24:55] Case study: Microsoft and the power of long-term compounding [29:10] The limits of ROIC and why incremental returns matter [31:25] Final takeaway: one number, long time horizons, evolving businesses Send us Fan Mail ________ Resources: 📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management 📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models ________ If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show. Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X ________ Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

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We want to stuff your mailbox with dividends! Our goal is to show you the power of dividend growth investing, and for each year's check to be larger than the last. We analyze specific companies and look at the mindset this strategy requires to be successful long-term. Come explore this not-so-boring world and watch your portfolio's value compound.

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