The Defence Horizon Journal - Podcasts

TDHJ

The Defence Horizon Journal Podcasts are part of the blog on security and defence-related topics. For more information visit www.tdhj.org

  1. vor 6 Tagen

    The Horizon Audiofiles - Ep 103 - The Emerging Logic Of Prolonged And Indeterminate War

    An increasing number of contemporary conflicts appear to resist decisive resolution under specific structural conditions. This argument does not suggest that all wars follow the same trajectory. Rather, it identifies specific structural configurations under which decisive outcomes become less likely. For the purposes of this article, “strategic closure” refers to the production of a durable political outcome through military action, whether by decisive battlefield victory, negotiated settlement, regime collapse, or the consolidation of a new strategic equilibrium. The argument advanced here is not that all wars become stalemated, but that under certain structural conditions, the probability of achieving such strategic closure declines significantly. Nuclear deterrence, technological transparency, alliance commitments, and economic interdependence constrain pathways toward decisive military resolution without ending conflict. Conflicts such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and escalating confrontations in the Middle East are used here as illustrative cases of a broader phenomenon in which multiple escalation-constraining mechanisms operate simultaneously. They do not, by themselves, establish a universal trend, but they help illuminate the conditions under which prolonged strategic inconclusiveness may emerge. Nuclear deterrence, technological transparency, alliance commitments, and economic interdependence may, under particular geopolitical conditions, constrain pathways toward decisive military resolution without necessarily ending conflict. As a result, such conditions may prolong the conflict while reducing the likelihood of strategic closure. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

  2. 6. Aug.

    The Horizon Audiofiles - Ep 102 - AI, Automation Bias, And The Defence Of Clausewitzian Command

    The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into strategic command reconstitutes rather than augments command judgement, placing systematic pressure on what Clausewitz identified as the essential intelligence of command: coup d’œil, the cultivated capacity for rapid holistic synthesis that distinguishes the formed commander from the competent administrator. This article argues that command intuition develops through practice and is sustained through experience, yet three compounding pathologies in AI-augmented environments progressively erode its development and exercise. Drawing on Clausewitz’s analytical framework, the article identifies these pathologies as automation bias, which substitutes deference for judgement; algorithmic monoculture, which collapses cognitive diversity through which actors recognise what shared models cannot perceive; and delegated infopolitik, which embeds consequential political choices within system architecture, rendering them invisible to commanders and severing the accountability chain that war as an act of policy requires. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

  3. 9. Juli

    The Horizon Audiofiles - Ep 098 - NATO, Industrial Resilience, And Battlefield Transparency

    Since the 2023 Vilnius Summit, NATO has recognised industrial capacity as a core element of deterrence. The Alliance has endorsed the Defence Production Action Plan, adopted the Industrial Capacity Expansion Pledge, and aligned with parallel US and EU initiatives, the National Defence Industrial Strategy and the Act in Support of Ammunition Production to accelerate output, standardisation, and supply-chain resilience. Yet policy vocabulary has advanced faster than procurement logic. The return of industrial war, combined with a sensor-saturated battlefield, means that design choices now carry direct operational consequences. Manufacturability, supply substitution, repairability, and distributed production potential are variables of combat endurance. This article argues that NATO's real gap is not only an industrial-capacity gap, but also an industrial-operational doctrine gap: the Alliance has not yet fully integrated production resilience and battlefield transparency into a mature procurement doctrine suited to prolonged high-intensity conflict. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation »» HOME «« » https://tdhj.org/ »» SOCIAL MEDIA «« » X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/HorizonDefence » Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedefencehorizon.org » Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedefencehorizonjournal/ » LinkedIn: The Defence Horizon Journal

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The Defence Horizon Journal Podcasts are part of the blog on security and defence-related topics. For more information visit www.tdhj.org