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15.10.2024

029 | 2024年美国大选民调还能信吗？Can We Still Trust 2024 Election Polls?

【聊了什么】大选进入冲刺阶段，选举民调再次成为焦点。然而，过去几次选举中民调的频繁失准，让人不禁质疑：我们还能相信民调吗？在这期节目中，我们深入探讨了民调的方方面面，从民调的制作过程，到比较全国民调和摇摆州民调的可靠性。我们分析了近年来民调越来越不准的原因，探讨了2024年民调的新变化，并且分析了内部民调的准确性。当然，今年民调到底准不准，要到11月5日之后才能见分晓了。美轮美换的网站上也推出了对最新民调、民调均值、选举预测的每日追踪，欢迎访问网站，并订阅成为免费或付费会员。 https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/ 【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:01:00 各位主播看民调的姿势 00:04:51 民调是怎么做出来的？ 00:13:40 为什么美国还在用固定电话做民调？ 00:17:48 为什么近年的民调会不准？ 00:26:40 2024年民调做了什么调整？ 00:32:58 为什么做民调这么难？ 00:41:19 今年的民调会高估或低估特朗普吗？ 00:44:48 摇摆州民调会更靠谱吗？ 00:48:45 内部民调靠谱吗？ 00:52:50 民主党和共和党对民调不同的反应 1:04:10 选举预测模型靠谱吗？【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。本期的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。【 What We Talked About】 With the election in its final stretch, polls are once again in the spotlight. But after a string of high-profile misses in recent elections, many are asking: can we still trust the polls? In this episode, we dive deep into the world of political polling, examining everything from how polls are conducted to the reliability of national vs. swing state polls. We explore why polls have become less accurate in recent years, what changes pollsters are making for 2024, and whether internal campaign polls offer any better insight. Of course, the true test of this year's polls won't come until after Election Day on November 5th. Join us for a critical look at the state of political polling in America today. The American Roulette website has launched daily tracking of the latest polls, poll averages, and election predictions. Visit our site and consider becoming a free or paid subscriber for access to these insights. https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/ 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:01:00 The hosts' approach to interpreting polls 00:04:51 The mechanics of polling: How are they conducted? 00:13:40 Landlines in modern polling: Why do they persist? 00:17:48 Unpacking recent poll inaccuracies 00:26:40 Polling in 2024: Key adjustments and changes 00:32:58 The challenges of accurate polling 00:41:19 Trump and the polls: Potential for over or underestimation? 00:44:48 Swing state polls: A more reliable indicator? 00:48:45 Internal polls: Trustworthy or misleading? 00:52:50 Partisan responses to polling: Democrats vs. Republicans 1:04:10 Election prediction models: How reliable are they? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. 【拓展链接】 https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/ https://www.nytimes.com/by/nate-cohn

15.10.2024

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1 t. 14 min.
27.05.2024

007 ｜奶奶在想什么，AI一点都不知道 AI can’t read my grandma’s mind

【聊了什么The What】从2022年末ChatGPT发布至今，这不到两年时间里，以它为首的许多人工智能（语言模型/软件/生产力工具？）已经成为了许多都市人生活与工作的一大部分。本期我们邀请了两位人工智能和语言模型相关领域的朋友，以ChatGPT为引子，从情感、玄学、伦理、权力等维度闲聊一下我们每个人与人工智能之间亲密而复杂的关系。 In less than two years since ChatGPT's release at the end of 2022, many artificial intelligences—whether it is language models, software, or productivity tools—have become integral parts of the lives and work of many people. In this issue, we invite two friends from the field of artificial intelligence and language models to use ChatGPT as a starting point to chat about the intimate and complex relationship between each of us and artificial intelligence from dimensions such as emotions, mysticism, ethics, power, and more. 【时间轴 The When】 4:28 生活中，我们怎样使用AI 17:18 ChatGPT老师现场展示超高性别意识 24:39 人工智能的道德哪里来？ 36:20 当玄学遇见大数据 41:31 AI或许很擅长提供情绪价值？ 47:41 我们与AI的学习方式有哪些异同 1:02:13 被人工智能与大数据抹去的「人」 4:28 How do we use AI in everyday life? 17:18 ChatGPT’s gender awareness is beyond average men, obviously 24:39 Where does the morality of AI come from? 36:20 Metaphysics meet big data 41:31 AI is so good at providing emotional value? 47:41 Let’s compare and contrast human and AI’s ways of learning 1:02:13 Human forgotten by AI and big data 【拓展链接 The Links】什么是大语言模型（LLM）特德·姜：ChatGPT是互联网文本的一个模糊JPEG 中文房间（Chinese Room）土耳其行棋傀儡（Mechanical Turk）甘道夫AI解谜游戏【我们是谁】大波福娃是一档中文女权喜剧播客。我们希望用笑声对抗禁忌，用幽默消解规训。这里聚集了一群长期在海外生活的女权主义者，我们通过嬉笑怒骂的方式观察世界，调侃父权。我们想创造一个安全的空间，鼓励更多由女性和酷儿群体主导的对话，为宇宙指明发展的方向！ “Dat Beauvoir” is a Chinese feminist comedy podcast. We aim to combat taboos with laughter and dissolve patriarchal norms with humor. Here gathers a group of diasporic feminists residing overseas. Together we observe the world, mocking male supremacy through playful banter. We want to create a safe space, encouraging more conversations led by women and LGBTQ+ communities, shedding light on the right path for the universe's future with laughter and satire! 本期我们的主播和嘉宾：跑跑（they/them）：工匠/小丑/人民教师/高科技亚逼（消歧义），尊重且热爱谐音梗小苕 (it/its)：一颗坡塔头，最近自我认同为姜薯豆浆里的姜薯杜安瑞 (she/her)：一个写东西的女的居居逼 (it/its): 一颗靠AI吃饭的大红枣 Our hosts and guests: Runrun (they/them): local shop tech / clown / adjunct / computer beep boops, pun always intended. Shao (it/its): A potato with Chinese characteristics. Can’t be fried or smashed. Duane Reade (she/her): A woman who writes. Jujube (it/its): A jujube who makes a living through AI. 【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/datbeauvoir 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/datbeauvoir 合作投稿邮箱：dat.beauvoir.pod@gmail.com

27.05.2024

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1 t. 24 min.
17. AUG.

068 | Mountainhead: 未经许可扮演上帝的硅谷精英 Mountainhead and Silicon Valley Elites' God Complex

【聊了什么The What】 HBO 新片Mountainhead是《继承之战》编剧 Jesse Armstrong 的导演初作。这一次，他把镜头从东海岸的传媒财阀转向了西海岸的科技巨头。四位科技界巨头和曾经的好友在犹他州的豪华山庄度周末，外面的世界却因一款 AI 生成工具制造的政治假新闻陷入混乱。他们坐在山顶的别墅中，讨论着权力、技术与人类未来，以及如何延长自己的生命，甚至抵御死亡，上传意识。节目中，我们谈到了科技精英的傲慢与脆弱、有效加速主义（e/acc）在硅谷的兴起、从 All In Podcast 到特朗普就职典礼的科技圈政治野心，以及为什么现实比电影还科幻，却让创作者越来越难以讲述。从HBO关于科技的剧集大火的Silicon Valley到这部同样关于讲述科技圈内部故事的Mountainhead只有短短几年过去了。而太多改变已经发生。 Mountainhead, HBO’s new film, marks the directorial debut of Succession writer Jesse Armstrong. This time, he shifts the camera from East Coast media dynasties to West Coast tech titans. The story follows four former friends and tech moguls spending a weekend at a luxury mountain estate in Utah, while the outside world descends into chaos—triggered by political disinformation generated by an AI tool they helped create. From the comfort of their hilltop villa, they debate power, technology, the future of humanity, and how to prolong their own lives—even resisting death by uploading their consciousness. In this episode, we talk about the arrogance and fragility of tech elites, the rise of Effective Accelerationism (e/acc) in Silicon Valley, the political ambitions of the tech world—from the All-In Podcast to Trump’s inauguration—and why reality has become more sci-fi than fiction, making it harder than ever for creators to tell these stories. Only a few years separate HBO’s Silicon Valley and Mountainhead, but in that short span, the world—and tech—has changed in ways no one could have scripted. 【时间轴 The When】 03:39 我们最喜欢的编剧把我们的推特故事线拍成电影了 08:15 四位主角是如何“缝合”现实中的硅谷大佬们？ 15:56 硅谷意识形态的转变：从商业逻辑到宗教信仰 32:29 科技大佬的权力渴望与“大教堂”、“创始人主权”、“Luxury Belief” 42:30 渴望权力，却又想逃避责任的Tech Bro文化 54:29 警惕权力的新外衣与我们应有的警惕 03:39 Our favorite screenwriter turns our Twitter storylines into a movie 08:15 How the four protagonists are “stitched together” from real-life Silicon Valley moguls 15:56 The ideological shift in Silicon Valley: from business logic to religious belief 32:29 Tech elites’ thirst for power: “The Cathedral,” “Founder Sovereignty,” and “Luxury Beliefs” 42:30 The Tech Bro dilemma—craving power while dodging responsibility 54:29 The new disguise of power and why we must remain vigilant 【拓展链接 The Links】小华提到的漫画：“参议院的老板们”——1889 【疲惫红书 CyberRed】除了播客以外，疲惫娇娃的几个女的在小红书上开了官方账号，我们会不定期发布【疲惫在读】、【疲惫在看】、【疲惫旅行】、【疲惫Vlog】等等更加轻盈、好玩、实验性质的内容。如果你想知道除了播客以外我们在关注什么，快来小红书评论区和我们互动。 Apart from the podcast, we have set up an official account on Xiaohongshu. We will periodically post content such as “CyberPink Reading,” “CyberPink Watching,” “CyberPink Traveling,” “CyberPink Vlog,” and more. Those are lighter, more fun and more experimental stuff about our lives. Leave us some comments on Xiaohongshu! 【买咖啡 Please Support Us】如果喜欢这期节目并愿意想要给我们买杯咖啡：海外用户：https://www.patreon.com/cyberpinkfm 海内用户：https://afdian.com/a/cyberpinkfm 商务合作邮箱：cyberpinkfm@gmail.com 商务合作微信：CyberPink2022 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Those Abroad: https://www.patreon.com/cyberpinkfm Those in China: https://afdian.com/a/cyberpinkfm Business Inquiries Email: cyberpinkfm@gmail.com Business Inquiries WeChat: CyberPink2022

17. aug.

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1 t. 2 min.
21. APR.

062 |「白莲花度假村」第三季：身份即牢笼 White Lotus S3: Identity as Prison

【疲惫广播 What's New】上周疲惫娇娃的阿花和一芳受邀参加了在东京举办的星战盛典，请大家移步小红书看我们的精彩采访和现场直击！《安多》第二季也即将开播！欢迎大家点这里回顾我们聊第一季的节目！【聊了什么 The What】「白莲花度假村」第三季是今年在美国极具文化影响力的一部剧集，由HBO出品，Mike White（麦克白）导演编剧并且制作。第三季将故事转移至泰国，铺垫了整整八集沉重气氛给天堂版的背景增添了一丝诡异和不详。北卡莱罗纳州Ratliff家族的表面光鲜与内里腐朽；Rick与Chelsea这对灵魂伴侣背后隐藏的深渊；三位闺蜜之间那微妙平衡的友谊和人生；第一季返场人物Belinda与Greg/Gary的命运再度交织；所有人物的结局都像一场精心设计的因果轮回。在这个看似奢华的度假天堂里，每个人都被困在自己的身份牢笼中无法脱身。当暴力事件最终爆发，我们是否能从这些角色的命运中看到自己的影子？信仰的缺失是否就是现代人痛苦的根源？这部剧巧妙借鉴佛教寓言，融入业力、痛苦之源贪嗔痴等等概念，为观看的我们提供了一面审视自我的镜子。这集播客小蓝和一芳请来朋友阿点一起聊聊这部让我们和全网观众欲罢不能的电视剧。注意：本节目完全剧透！我们在讨论中尽量让没看过的听众也能听懂。如果你已经看过可以跳过梗概，如果还想看而且介意剧透建议收藏，之后再听。本期嘉宾：阿点（欢迎订阅阿点的newsletter） "The White Lotus" Season 3 is one of the most culturally influential series this year, produced by HBO and directed, written, and produced by Mike White. The third season moves the story to Thailand, building up a heavy atmosphere over eight episodes that adds a touch of the strange and ominous to the paradise-like setting. The seemingly perfect but inwardly corrupt Ratliff family from North Carolina; the abyss hidden behind the "soulmate" relationship of Rick and Chelsea; the delicately balanced friendship and lives of three girlfriends; the intertwined destinies of Season 1 returning characters Belinda and Greg/Gary - all characters' endings seem like a carefully designed karmic cycle. Compared to the previous two seasons, the third season is more of a philosophical journey about identity, desire, and redemption, drawing on the director's own research and thinking about Buddhism, skillfully incorporating concepts such as karma and the three poisons (greed, anger, and delusion) into the plot, providing us with a mirror to examine modern society and human nature. In this podcast episode, Xiaolan and Yifang invite their friend Adian to discuss this TV series that has made us and viewers across the internet unable to stop watching. Note: This episode contains complete spoilers! We try to make our discussion understandable to listeners who haven't seen the show. If you've already watched it, you can skip the plot summary; if you still want to watch and mind spoilers, we suggest bookmarking this episode to listen to later. Guest: A Dian (Subscribe to her newsletter) 【买咖啡 Please Support Us】如果喜欢这期节目并愿意想要给我们买杯咖啡：海外用户：https://www.patreon.com/cyberpinkfm 海内用户：https://afdian.com/a/cyberpinkfm 商务合作邮箱：cyberpinkfm@gmail.com 商务合作微信：CyberPink2022 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Those Abroad: https://www.patreon.com/cyberpinkfm Those in China: https://afdian.com/a/cyberpinkfm Business Inquiries Email: cyberpinkfm@gmail.com Business Inquiries WeChat: CyberPink2022 【时间轴 The When】 00:03:43 看过的可以跳过：剧透警告与人物介绍 00:08:42 白莲花这一季和往季的区别，观影第一印象 00:18:08 全网出圈的《白莲花度假村》梗，杜克大学“紧急公关” 00:25:23 三位闺蜜：女性友谊背后的嫉妒、理解和爱；为什么Laurie那段话让我们哇哇大哭 00:35:02 美国南方老钱核心家庭的光鲜和腐朽 00:53:43 Rick和Chelsea，救赎与被救赎的佛教寓言 01:20:51 第三世界男性与第一世界女性的权力关系 01:26:39 麦克白的创作意图：不以道德说教为目的的叙事 00:03:43 You can skip if you've already watched: Spoiler warning and character introductions 00:08:42 Discussing how this season of White Lotus differs from previous seasons, and first impressions 00:18:08 Viral White Lotus memes, Duke University's “emergency PR response” 00:25:23 The three girlfriends: jealousy, understanding and love in female friendships; why Laurie's speech made us ugly cry 00:35:02 Troubled Southern old-money nuclear family and sibling dynamics 00:53:43 Rick and Chelsea, a Buddhist parable of redemption and being redeemed 01:20:51 Power dynamics between Third World men and First World women 01:26:39 Mike White's creative intentions: narrative without moral preaching 【拓展链接 The Links】 020 | 「白莲花度假村」：出淤泥而全染的人间群像 "The White Lotus 2": a scan of reality 【疲惫红书 CyberRed】除了播客以外，疲惫娇娃的几个女的在小红书上开了官方账号，我们会不定期发布【疲惫在读】、【疲惫在看】、【疲惫旅行】、【疲惫Vlog】等等更加轻盈、好玩、实验性质的内容。如果你想知道除了播客以外我们在关注什么，快来小红书评论区和我们互动。 Apart from the podcast, we have set up an official account on Xiaohongshu. We will periodically post content such as “CyberPink Reading,” “CyberPink Watching,” “CyberPink Traveling,” “CyberPink Vlog,” and more. Those are lighter, more fun, and more experimental stuff about our lives. Leave us some comments on Xiaohongshu! 【听众专属福利】一起订阅《三联生活周刊》数字刊会员年卡吧！ 🎉 疲惫娇娃专属渠道粉丝下单享受六折优惠🎉

21. apr.

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1 t. 34 min.
02.07.2024

049 |「挑战者」：三人成双 Challengers: It takes three to play

[本期节目有广告！由【泰诺氨酚拉明片】赞助播出！] 泰诺氨酚拉明片是一款夜间专用的止痛药, 有需要的听友，可在美团搜索“泰诺夜间止痛”，即可购买。 ⭐⭐点击跳转链接⭐⭐ (超链接请点这里！) 另外，这次泰诺联合小宇宙的播客企划「夜间止痛站」也将在上海大学路举行线下快闪活动。泰诺联合老百姓大药房会举行一些有趣的科普互动，大家可以在7月8号至14号前来打卡！【聊了什么 The What】今天这期节目聊了《Challengers 挑战者》，今夏美国最火的电影之一，由已经晋升好莱坞当之无愧一线女星赞达亚、和两位男演员乔希·奥康纳和麦克·费斯主演。电影使用了非线性的叙事方法，从2019年的一场挑战赛的决赛比赛开场，慢慢道出三个人之间情感三角历史，在十多年的纠葛当中，他们之间的关系变得更加复杂，同时网球比赛在他们三个人的生命当中，也成为了爱情三角的具象化。 In today's episode, we unpack this summer's hottest blockbuster "Challengers," starring A-list superstar Zendaya, Josh O'Connor, and Mike Faist. We follow these three gorgeous on-screen characters as the movie volleys back and forth in time to show us over a decade of entanglement, and we dissect how their relationship as friends, lovers, and foes, evolves over time. This episode includes a sponsored ad for Tylenol. 【时间轴 The When】 0:00 泰诺广告时间 3:57 我们对Challengers这部电影的第一感觉 10:00 这部电影的美学，摄影，和独特的视角（最后观众变成了球） 13:20 这场平平无奇的网球比赛其实是三个主人公借假修真的灵魂之旅，人与人的直接竞争 21:18 网球其实是一个不太隐晦的性隐喻 + 专业运动员对本片的评价 30:20 导演对于三人情愫的刻画 32:55 分析Tashi的成长弧线和三个人之间的三角关系 50:20 Tashi是奖赏？是裁判？是三人命运的操控者？ 1:04:00 继续分析三角关系，他们每个人都是赢家？ 1:17:05 这个电影的植入勾起了强烈的购物欲, 本电影的时尚设计 0:00 sponsored ad for Tylenol 3:57 Our first impressions of "Challengers" 10:00 The film's aesthetics, cinematography, and unique perspective 13:20 This seemingly ordinary tennis match is a journey of self-discovery for the three protagonists in disguise, showcasing the reality of competitive sports 21:18 Tennis as a not-so-subtle sexual metaphor and professional athletes' review of the film 30:20 The director's portrayal of the emotional dynamics between the three characters 32:55 Analysis of Tashi's character arc and the complex love triangle between the three 50:20 Is Tashi deemed a prize by the two men? Is she a referee, or the puppet master of the trio's fate? 1:04:00 Deeper analysis of the love triangle: are they all winners in their own way? 1:17:05 The film's product placement and what it says about sports and branding, in association with the film's costume design 【疲惫红书 CyberRed】除了播客以外，疲惫娇娃的几个女的在小红书上开了官方账号，我们会不定期发布【疲惫在读】、【疲惫在看】、【疲惫旅行】、【疲惫Vlog】等等更加轻盈、好玩、实验性质的内容。如果你想知道除了播客以外我们在关注什么，快来小红书评论区和我们互动。 Apart from the podcast, we have set up an official account on Xiaohongshu. We will periodically post content such as “CyberPink Reading,” “CyberPink Watching,” “CyberPink Traveling,” “CyberPink Vlog,” and more. Those are lighter, more fun and more experimental stuff about our lives. Leave us some comments on Xiaohongshu! 【买咖啡 Please Support Us】如果喜欢这期节目并愿意想要给我们买杯咖啡：海外用户：https://www.patreon.com/cyberpinkfm 海内用户：https://afdian.com/a/cyberpinkfm 商务合作邮箱：cyberpinkfm@gmail.com 商务合作微信：CyberPink2022 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Those Abroad: https://www.patreon.com/cyberpinkfm Those in China: https://afdian.net/@cyberpinkfm Business Inquiries Email: cyberpinkfm@gmail.com Business Inquiries WeChat: CyberPink2022]()

02.07.2024

•

1 t. 25 min.
7. SEP.

061 | 选区重划的潘多拉魔盒和纽森的抽象 Fighting Fire with Fire: Redistricting and the New Political Playbook

【聊了什么】夏天通常是美国政治新闻周期比较缓慢的季节，但今年夏天的新闻并不少。在夏天的尾巴，“特朗普病危”的谣言突然在社交媒体上传播，暴露了“老皇帝”和“新太子”的微妙关系。与此同时，一场争夺国会控制权的战争已在地图上打响。从德州共和党的坚决出手，到加州民主党的强硬反制，两党围绕选区划分展开了极限攻防。这场“以火攻火”的对决将如何收场？加州州长纽森模仿特朗普的“烂梗”战术，是奇招还是险棋？本期节目录制于9月1日。播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/redistricting-texas-california-newsom-transcript 【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 02:51 特朗普健康状况 10:52 进入本期核心——国会选区重划之争 12:04 什么是Gerrymandering？从历史起源到当代实践 15:50 “一人一票”原则的法律演进 21:49 “公平”的困境：独立委员会、党派利益与政治地理的冲突 36:11 《投票权法案》（VRA）的角色 46:31 德州战场：共和党如何通过重划选区谋求5个新增席位 53:05 加州反击：纽森领导的“以牙还牙”策略及其公投挑战 1:01:30 全国军备竞赛：两党在各州选区的未来布局与潜在战场 1:09:13 模仿还是超越？加州州长纽森的“网红”政治策略分析 1:21:25 民主党的未来路线之争：效仿特朗普还是坚持传统？【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师小华：媒体人【 What We Talked About】 Summer is usually a slower season for the American political news cycle, but there has been no shortage of news this summer. At the tail end of the summer, a rumor that "Trump is critically ill or dead" suddenly spread on social media, exposing the delicate relationship between the "old emperor" and the "new prince." Meanwhile, a battle for control of Congress has already begun on the electoral map. From the Texas Republican Party's move to the California Democratic Party's ountermeasures, the two parties have engaged in an extreme offense and defense over redistricting. How will this "fighting fire with fire" showdown end? Is California Governor Newsom's tactic of imitating Trump a brilliant move or a risky gamble? This episode was recorded on September 1st. Podcast Transcript (Paid Subscribers Only): https://theamericanroulette.com/redistricting-texas-california-newsom-transcript 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 02:51 Trump's Health Condition 10:52 The Core Topic of This Episode: The Battle Over Congressional Redistricting 12:04 What is Gerrymandering? From its Historical Origins to Modern Practices 15:50 The Legal Evolution of the "One Person, One Vote" Principle 21:49 The Dilemma of "Fairness": The Conflict Between Independent Commissions, Partisan Interests, and Political Geography 36:11 The Role of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) 46:31 The Texas Battlefield: How the Republican Party Aims to Gain 5 New Seats Through Redistricting 53:05 California's Counterattack: Newsom's "Eye for an Eye" Strategy and its Referendum Challenge 1:01:30 A Nationwide Arms Race: The Two Parties' Future Strategies and Potential Battlegrounds in State Districts 1:09:13 Imitation or Transcendence? An Analysis of California Governor Newsom's "Influencer" Political Strategy 1:21:25 The Democratic Party's Debate Over its Future Path: Imitate Trump or Stick to Tradition? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【The Links】 If Redistricting Goes as Expected, Which Party Will Come Out Ahead? https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/31/upshot/redistricting-analysis-2026-midterms.html

7. sep.

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1 t. 31 min.
03.09.2024

052｜Drake和Kendrick怎么闹成这样 Kendrick and Drake’s Rap Beef explained

【聊了什么The What】纠结了一个夏天，我们还是决定聊一聊Drake和Kendrick的Rap Beef（说唱对决）。对于在国内长大的小杨和一芳来说，来到美国之后面对着从“从未考虑过种族“到迷迷糊糊开始思考自己身份的漫长成长过程。而这个成长过程中很重要的文本就是说唱音乐——更具体地说，是Kendrick Lamar的音乐。这场Rap Beef不仅仅是两个天才创作者之间争夺影响力的创作对决，还掀起了遍布各个角落的涉及嘻哈文化、性别、种族、艺术创作与商业成功之间的大讨论。在这场rap battle中，多首音乐被制作出来，随着battle的火力程度升级，家暴、恋童等指控成为歌词里面乱飞的字母武器。这些男性rappers们在个人恩怨中提出的未经证实的指控，是在保护真实的女性，还是名人男性之间相互利用对方对于失去名利的恐惧？这些看似正义的歌词其实与受伤的女性无关？嘻哈音乐是否有内生的厌女倾向，还是它只是反映了手握资源的人们对女性困境的不为所动？ As a pop culture podcast, we can’t not talk about one of the biggest cultural moments in hip hop (and beyond): the infamous rap battle between Drake and Kendrick Lamar. But for us here at Cyberpink, dissecting this rap beef goes further than just chronologically listing out who dropped what song when, or the cultural significance of “Not Like Us.” When we first experienced racialization as young immigrants, Kendrick’s profound lyrics were part of the canonical texts we read to understand race and identity in the U.S. Kendrick vs. Drake goes beyond two rappers showing off their creative chops -- it started a whole conversation around how we should consume and evaluate hip hop culture. As insults were traded and the battle escalated, accusations of domestic violence and pedophilia became lyrical weapons casually thrown around; no women or child was spared as partners, sons, daughters, and parents got dragged into the mix. Are these unverified accusations meant to protect real women, or are the two rap stars using each other’s fragile ego and fear of losing fame or wealth for their own gain. What are they gaining -- clout or their name in history as the winner? And at what cost -- women who get caught in the crossfire and further extending hip-hop’s inherent misogynistic tendencies? Is this whole showdown an indication that those with resources are indifferent to women's plight? It’s our job as culture consumers to ask these tough questions. Tune in for our discussion. 【时间轴 The When】 00:00:39 Drake与Kendrick Lamar的说唱对决的前因后果 00:04:57 Drake: 来自加拿大的混血童星和“说唱界变色龙” 00:12:44 Kendrick Lamar: 来自康普顿底层的声音，rap即诗歌，也是黑人文化的守护者 00:18:05 这场battle开始来真的: 音乐创作中开始出现大量个人攻击，战情升级 00:25:56 "Family Matters"与"Meet the Grahams": 当家庭成为歌词中的战场 00:31:57 "Not Like Us"和说唱音乐的性别困境 00:41:06 女艺术家们如何battle: Charli XCX和Lorde的和解 01:00:10 怎么办，我最爱的音乐人是一个艺术怪物 00:00:39 Drake vs. Kendrick: how the rap battle started 00:04:57 Drake: A biracial child star from Canada and too much of a chameleon? 00:12:44 Kendrick Lamar: A voice from Compton, rap as poetry, and guardian of Black culture 00:18:05 The battle gets real: Music creations start to include numerous personal attacks, escalating tensions 00:25:56 "Family Matters" and "Meet the Grahams": When family becomes a battlefield in lyrics 00:31:57 "Not Like Us" and hiphop culture’s gender problem 00:41:06 Female artists beef differently: The reconciliation between Charli XCX and Lorde 01:00:10 What if your favorite artist is an art monster 【拓展链接 The Links】 R-E-S-P-E-C-T Survivor Trauma Cannot Be Treated as Just Another Bar in a Rap Battle Drake and Kendrick Lamar Is the Last Great Rap Beef. Thank God. Drake and Kendrick Lamar are weaponising feminism Every Drake-Related Easter Egg In Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us” Music Video 【结尾音乐 The Song】 Women by Little Simz 【疲惫红书 CyberRed】除了播客以外，疲惫娇娃的几个女的在小红书上开了官方账号，我们会不定期发布【疲惫在读】、【疲惫在看】、【疲惫旅行】、【疲惫Vlog】等等更加轻盈、好玩、实验性质的内容。如果你想知道除了播客以外我们在关注什么，快来小红书评论区和我们互动。 Apart from the podcast, we have set up an official account on Xiaohongshu. We will periodically post content to talk about our readings, what we are watching, the events we are going to, and more. Leave us some comments on Xiaohongshu! 【买咖啡 Please Support Us】如果喜欢这期节目并愿意想要给我们买杯咖啡：海外用户：https://www.patreon.com/cyberpinkfm 海内用户：https://afdian.com/a/cyberpinkfm 商务合作邮箱：cyberpinkfm@gmail.com 商务合作微信：CyberPink2022 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Those Abroad: https://www.patreon.com/cyberpinkfm Those in China: https://afdian.net/@cyberpinkfm Business Inquiries Email: cyberpinkfm@gmail.com Business Inquiries WeChat: CyberPink2022

03.09.2024

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1 t. 6 min.
22. JAN.

044 | 特朗普重返白宫 Trump's Second Coming

【聊了什么 The What】 2025年1月20日，美国迎来了第47任总统——重返白宫的特朗普。在这个权力交接的关键72小时里，我们见证了一系列戏剧性的发展：从TikTok的生死时刻，到加沙地带的停火协议；从拜登的预防性特赦，到特朗普的加密货币发行。本期节目，我们将解析权力交接期间和就职典礼上发生的标志性事件。特朗普新政府的首日行动展现了鲜明的"美国优先"色彩，从宣布边境紧急状态到调整移民政策，从将墨西哥湾更名为"美洲湾"的象征性举动，到对1月6日事件参与者的大规模特赦。我们一起走进这个充满混乱和变化的新时代。本期播客录制于美国东部时间1月20日晚间，由美轮美换和看理想联合制作，欢迎在看理想订阅《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴 The When】近期事件回溯 01:24 TikTok下线又上线是政治作秀吗？ 08:01 群众对美国体制的不信任 11:50 加沙停火，是特朗普部分兑现了承诺，还是他摘了拜登的桃？ 16:22 如何看拜登任前签署了一系列对家庭成员的预防性特赦？ 22:08 特朗普特赦国会山事件中的一千六百名参与者 24:06 就职典礼前两天，特朗普发布新币？特朗普就职典礼 29:00 因寒冷天气，就职典礼在国会大厦大厅里举行 30:23 为何科技公司高管们的座位相当靠前？ 33:34 民主党对特朗普的各方支持度破防？ 52:36 特朗普政府所代表的新的单边主义回归 55:29 “把墨西哥湾改名美国湾”，特朗普的“昭昭天命”（Manifest Destiny）是什么？ 58:43 第一天政策：宣布美墨边境进入国家紧急状态；移民申请庇护的APP关停 1:00:23 特朗普在关税并没有采取特别多实质行动？ 1:03:35 美国政治的“钟摆”现无疑摆向右边，什么时候会再往左吗？【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子小华：媒体人【 What We Talked About】 On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump made his historic return to the White House as America's 47th President. The crucial 72 hours surrounding this power transition witnessed a series of dramatic developments: from TikTok's fight for survival to the Gaza ceasefire agreement; from Biden's unprecedented preemptive pardons to Trump's venture into cryptocurrency. In this episode, we examine the pivotal events that marked both the transition period and the inauguration ceremony. The Trump administration's first-day actions boldly reaffirmed the "America First" agenda—ranging from declaring a national emergency at the border to overhauling immigration policies, from the symbolic renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to the "Gulf of America," to the sweeping pardons for January 6 participants. Join us as we navigate through this new era of uncertainty and transformation. This episode was recorded at 9 PM Eastern Time on January 20, 2025. The episode is co-produced by The American Roulette and Vistopia. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 Recent Events in Review 01:24 TikTok's offline-online flip: A political theater? 08:01 Growing public distrust in American institutions 11:50 Gaza ceasefire: Trump's promise fulfilled or Biden's achievement claimed? 16:22 Analyzing Biden's unprecedented preemptive pardons for family members 22:08 Trump pardons 1,600 January 6 Capitol riot participants 24:06 Trump launches cryptocurrency days before inauguration The Inauguration 29:00 Ceremony moves to Capitol Rotunda amid cold weather 30:23 Tech CEOs' front-row presence: A new power dynamic? 33:34 Democrats' surprising shift in Trump support ratings 52:36 The resurgence of unilateralism under Trump 2.0 55:29 "Gulf of America": Decoding Trump's "Manifest Destiny" 58:43 Day One executive actions: Border emergency declaration and asylum app shutdown 1:00:23 Trump's restrained approach to tariff policies 1:03:35 As the political pendulum swings right, when might it return left? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

22. jan.

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1 t. 8 min.
19.09.2024

027 | 忽左忽右的硅谷 Silicon Valley's Political Shift

【聊了什么】近年来，硅谷这个传统的民主党堡垒正悄然发生变化。科技界的“右转”现象，以及马斯克和Marc Andreessen等大佬对特朗普的公开支持，似乎预示着一场政治地震。这是否反映了科技界对主流社会长期“敌意”的反弹？在这期节目里，我们探讨了硅谷在即将到来的大选中的政治取向，AI革命下科技界政治光谱的变迁，以及源自科技圈的新兴政治话语及其在网络上的传播。【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 03:25 AI的浪潮引发政治语言的变革 08:17 回顾这几个月最近硅谷发生的“大佬右转，支持川普”的情况 13:27 Marc Andreessen和a16z对特朗普的公开支持，以及他的《科技乐观主义宣言》背后说了什么 21:00 华盛顿和硅谷之间撕裂从2016年开始不断加大 31:49 e/acc (有效加速主义）是什么？以及有哪些硅谷“cults”出现了？ 40:40 什么是Marc Andreessen和Ben Horowitz的“The Little tech agenda (小型科技议程)”？他们如何看待AI 监管？ 58:10 简析Peter Thiel对于特朗普的支持，以及他和JD Vance之间的历史 01:04:10 简析马斯克对于特朗普的公开支持 01:13:50 扎克伯格最近的态度：没有表态但是... 01:28:00 科技届的在公众面前的形象如何在2016年之后逐渐“崩坏”？ 01:33:10 哈里斯和加州湾区的关系，以及科技圈对哈里斯的支持网“VC for Kamala” 【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。本期的主播和嘉宾：小华：媒体人，美政观察者曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者 Afra: 在湾区生活工作的科技从业者一闻：商业记者，曾驻旧金山报道科技行业主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。【 What We Talked About】 In recent years, Silicon Valley, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, has been undergoing subtle changes. The tech industry's "right turn" and public support for Trump from prominent figures like Elon Musk and Marc Andreessen seem to herald a political earthquake. Does this reflect a backlash from the tech world against long-standing "hostility" from mainstream society? In this episode, we explore Silicon Valley's political leanings in the upcoming election, the shifts in the tech industry's political spectrum amidst the AI revolution, and the emergence and spread of new political language originating from the tech sphere. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 03:25 How AI is transforming political language 08:17 Recent "rightward shift" of Silicon Valley leaders supporting Trump 13:27 Marc Andreessen and a16z's public support for Trump, and what his "Techno-Optimist Manifesto" reveals 21:00 The widening rift between Washington and Silicon Valley since 2016 31:49 What is e/acc (effective accelerationism)? And what Silicon Valley "cults" have emerged? 40:40 What is Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz's "Little Tech Agenda"? Their views on AI regulation 58:10 Brief analysis of Peter Thiel's support for Trump and his historical connection with J.D. Vance 01:04:10 Brief analysis of Elon Musk's public endorsement of Trump 01:13:50 Mark Zuckerberg's recent attitude: No statement, but... 01:28:00 How has the tech industry's public image gradually "collapsed" after 2016? 01:33:10 Kamala Harris's relationship with the Bay Area, and the tech circle's support network "VC for Kamala" 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School Afra: Tech professional living and working in the Bay Area 一闻（Yiwen）：Business reporter, with previous experience covering the tech sector while based in San Francisco The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. 【拓展链接】 Key Issues in the 2024 United States Presidential Election, https://fletcher.tufts.edu/news-events/news/key-issues-2024-united-states-presidential-election The Little Tech Agenda, https://a16z.com/the-little-tech-agenda/ The Techno-Optimist Manifesto, https://a16z.com/the-techno-optimist-manifesto/ VCs for Kamala, https://www.vcsforkamala.org/

19.09.2024

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1 t. 39 min.
13. APR.

050 | 特朗普关税风暴：草台班子的大棋？Trump's Tariff Storm: A Ragtag Crew's Grand Strategy?

【聊了什么】特朗普在4月2日「解放日」突然宣布对全球主要贸易伙伴加征高额「对等关税」，引发金融市场剧烈动荡。在短短一周内经历了180度大转弯——对除中国外的多数国家暂停征收额外关税，但对华关税则进一步升级。这背后究竟发生了什么？是特朗普政府深思熟虑的「一盘大棋」，旨在重塑全球贸易格局、打击特定国家？还是白宫内部不同派系——财政部、贸易鹰派（如纳瓦罗）、经济顾问（如Stephen Miran）——目标各异、甚至相互矛盾的结果？特朗普本人对关税根深蒂固的执念，与他第二任期不受约束的执政风格，又在其中扮演了什么角色？本期节目，我们邀请了全球市场的交易员Sagar一起深入解读这场关税风暴。本期节目录制于4月12日。【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 02:04 事件回顾：特朗普4月2日宣布「对等关税」及后续反转 04:01 关税公式背后的荒谬逻辑 07:18 特朗普对关税的长期执念 vs 第二任期的放飞自我 12:43 三盘「大棋」：财政部 vs 纳瓦罗 vs 米兰 17:09 市场反应与经济影响 24:47 特朗普的核心动机：财政压力还是个人意志？ 30:00 美债市场的动荡及其影响 42:18 政治影响：国会反应、特朗普党内控制力 01:03:25 未来展望：谈判前景、多边贸易体系的挑战 01:07:01 TikTok问题与中美贸易谈判【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾：小华：媒体人王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Sagar：全球市场交易员【 What We Talked About】 On "Liberation Day," April 2nd, Donald Trump abruptly announced hefty "reciprocal tariffs" on major global trading partners, sending shockwaves through financial markets. Within just one week, the policy underwent a dramatic U-turn – additional tariffs were suspended for most countries except China, whose tariffs were instead escalated. What truly happened behind the scenes? Was it a calculated "grand strategy" by the Trump administration aimed at reshaping global trade and targeting specific nations? Or was it the result of conflicting, even contradictory, goals among different factions within the White House – the Treasury Department, trade hawks like Navarro, and economic advisors like Stephen Miran? What role did Trump's own deep-seated obsession with tariffs and his less constrained governing style in his second term play? In this episode, we invite Sagar, a global markets trader, for an in-depth analysis of this tariff turmoil. This episode was recorded on April 12th. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 02:04 Recap: Trump's April 2nd "Reciprocal Tariffs" & Subsequent Reversals 04:01 The Absurd Logic Behind the Tariff Formula 07:18 Trump's Longstanding Tariff Obsession vs. Second Term Unbound 12:43 Three "Grand Strategies": Treasury vs. Navarro vs. Miran 17:09 Market Reaction & Economic Impact 24:47 Trump's Core Motivations: Fiscal Pressure or Personal Will? 30:00 US Treasury Market Turmoil & Its Impacts 42:18 Political Fallout: Congressional Reaction, Trump's GOP Control 01:03:25 Future Outlook: Negotiation Prospects, Challenges to Multilateral Trade 01:07:01 The TikTok Issue & US-China Trade Talks 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Sagar: Global Markets Trader 【The Links】 https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/04/cea-chairman-steve-miran-hudson-institute-event-remarks/

13. apr.

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1 t. 10 min.

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