Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee

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Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Explore the latest trends in global credit markets with the biggest movers and shapers on Wall Street and the City, hosted by financial reporting veteran Lisa Lee.

  1. 4 DAYS AGO

    Arini president Mathew Cestar says Europe’s missing AI boom provides opportunities

    Europe has mostly missed the AI boom that’s driven a large part of US economic growth, says Mathew Cestar, president of Arini Capital Management, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee, taped in the London offices of the alternative asset manager. But that actually makes European credit more appealing, because while the intersection of technology and AI is an exciting equity story, that intersection in credit can involve “a lot of risk.” Cestar, who was once the co-head of investment banking at a large global bank, expects to see a broadening of M&A deals in terms of size, sectors and geographies, given the supportive interest rate and anti-trust environment. He also sees continued interest in Europe from global investors. And he welcomes more regulatory scrutiny for private credit, predicting that will result in better players in the market. “We’re super-embracing the fact that regulatory folks are now focused on private credit,” says Cestar. “If you want a market to grow sustainability and consistently, the regulatory framework is critical.” On the private credit market, Cestar forecasts troubles, that will lead to more dispersion of returns among shops. “We’re expecting an uplift in some of the private credit defaults,” he says. Defaults in the space have so far been relatively muted, but “that will start to change, because they can’t defy gravity,” Cestar believes.

    27 min

  2. 6 FEB

    AI’s improvements to workflow will be felt in months, not years – Carlyle co-president Mark Jenkins

    “We have this great tool out there called AI, and we haven’t 100% figured out how to implement it yet,” says Mark Jenkins, co-president and head of global credit & insurance at Carlyle, on the latest edition of ‘Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee’. Jenkins predicts that the next stage is going to be how corporates implement AI into their workflows, and that the process is “really in the first innings of implement”. OpenAI, Anthropic, and many others are developing tools for workflow, and Jenkins predicts they will take “not years, but several months” to impact systems. Carlyle, for example, is already using AI to help its investment group be more efficient, and to consume massive amounts of data in ways that would be difficult without AI, says Jenkins. But one has to use AI appropriately, he adds. “It’s not going to make the decision for you.” While change has been a constant feature during Jenkins’ 35-year career, nothing has been like AI in the past three years. Embrace the change and incorporate it into what you do, because typically, those are the ones that prosper, he counsels. On the broader investing climate, Jenkins is positive about the macroeconomic environment for the next 12 months. But moving out to 2027 and 2028, inflation may rear its head again.

    33 min

  3. 30 JAN

    Significant downside risk for credit sectors impacted by AI – BlackRock co-head of leveraged finance Mitch Garfin

    “Whether it be in the high yield bond market or in the leveraged loan market, even the hint or threat of AI impeding on really any sector – you see pretty significant downside,” says Mitch Garfin, co-head of leveraged finance at the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Garfin is constructive on the market generally, with growth continuing to “chug along” and inflation currently well-contained. He also identifies significant opportunities from AI, including ongoing data centre build-outs contributing to a significant uptick in supply in the high yield market that is likely to continue. But, he notes, there have also been situations where bonds and loans are down anywhere from a couple of points, and in some cases 5 or even 10 points, on “the immediate sort of threat” from AI. “It’s something to keep an eye on,” he says. Discussing the high yield market specifically, Garfin observes that consumer and retail continue to lag. “We’ve been underweight retail, consumer products, restaurants, leisure – a lot of the sectors that are going to be more impacted by a declining or weaker low-to-middle-class consumer,” he says. He also gives advice to younger industry hopefuls, including staffers and investors.

    35 min

  4. 23 JAN

    We’re looking at a multi-year M&A uptick – Morgan Stanley head of private credit and equity David Miller

    “It’s going to be a slow build, and we think a sustained multi-year increase in activity,” says David Miller, head of private credit and equity at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee, speaking about M&A and LBOs. The geopolitical headlines haven’t yet changed the economic picture, says Miller. But over time, they may impact on confidence and fan uncertainty. “As uncertainty rises, risk premium will rise. So that can change the calculus - but we’re not seeing it in the markets yet,” he observes. Miller also discusses running both the private equity and private credit businesses at Morgan Stanley’s asset management arm, a team that numbers more than 150 strong, and what it’s like being part of a global bank.

    36 min

  5. 16 JAN

    FOMC members may not embrace Trump’s pick for Fed chair – Federated Hermes deputy CIO of fixed income R.J. Gallo

    R.J. Gallo, deputy CIO of fixed income at Federated Hermes, addresses the recent DOJ move to investigate Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell and the possible impact on monetary policy, on the latest episode of ‘Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee’. Gallo, who will take up the fixed income CIO role in May, says we might see a more divergent FOMC where the votes actually matter. “Does that make them more hawkish? I don’t know. I’ll tell you this. It certainly won’t make the hawks more dovish,” he says. “It’s important to realise that many presidents get frustrated with the Federal Reserve,” adds Gallo, who prior to joining Federated Hermes in 2000, was at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. But what has been extraordinary in the Trump administration has been the full-on verbal assault of the Federal Reserve and the resultant “feud between the White House and the Fed.” And the most recent development of the DOJ subpoena has to be viewed in that context. On fixed income, Gallo takes a bit more of a cautious view. While his base case is for the US economy to grow in 2026, he is keeping some powder dry to reassess, in case there’s spread widening. “We don’t just want to chase an already highly-valued market.” Another thing to watch is AI, which has accounted for a large portion of equity returns and stimulated the US economy through high capex spending. If we see poor returns to AI capex, that could challenge equity and credit valuations, Gallo says.

    38 min

  6. 9 JAN

    Bullish outlook for 2026 – Janus Henderson head of multi-sector credit John Lloyd

    “I come into the year extremely bullish about fixed income and credit in general,” says John Lloyd, global head of multi-sector credit at Janus Henderson, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. The asset manager oversees nearly half a trillion dollars of AUM. Lloyd speaks about how markets are shrugging off some recent big geopolitical events because they do not impact earnings today and are viewed as one-off events, bespoke to a single country. Instead, they are focused on positive GDP growth as well as the Fed, which will be a tailwind to investing, as the US central bank is now injecting liquidity back into markets. Artificial intelligence is also a focus. The hyperscalers will increase their capex budgets because they are in a race over the next several years. Google, Facebook, Oracle and others are all issuing a tremendous amount of debt to support that capex growth. “You are going to see a lot of supply increase this year from AI,” Lloyd says. “I think that’s going to be a little bit of a negative supply technical in the fixed income markets this year, especially in the investment grade space.”

    35 min

  7. 20/12/2025

    Unpacking First Brands, rise of coercive restructurings – Eagle Point founder Tom Majewski

    While credit is “probably a four-letter word right now,” it is doing reasonably well, says Tom Majewski, founder and managing partner at Eagle Point Credit Management. “But headlines around the space will continue, and perhaps that unto itself creates some credit challenges,” he adds on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Majewski unpacks the First Brands collapse and fraud in general, noting there’s been a significant decline of occurrences of fraud in the US economy since the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. He also discusses liability management exercises (LMEs), or coercive restructurings, sharing Eagle Point’s upcoming research that shows there’s been over 100 LMEs in the last five years. “If there’s a little over 1,000 loans, that’s about a 2% LME rate per year, separate from defaults.”

    32 min

  8. 12/12/2025

    We are in a ‘stretched K-shape’ economy – Conning North America CIO Cindy Beaulieu

    The degree of inflation the past few years has stretched the ‘K’ that defines the K-shaped economy, says Cindy Beaulieu, chief investment officer at Conning Noth America, in the latest ‘Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee’ podcast. Asset valuations and home prices have further added to the pressure. The labour market is central to consumers in both the top and bottom of the K. The upper cohort are participating in the economy in a strong way. The bottom cohort are also participating – but even a modest amount of inflation is painful for them, because the base level of prices now is so much higher than it was just a few years ago. “I would put right in the centre of those two lines of the K, the labour markets,” says Beaulieu, who sets fixed income and equity strategy for Conning North America, which serves the insurance industry and has nearly $200bn in assets under management. “It’s kind of like a rubber band. As long as it doesn’t snap, it holds the K together.” In terms of investing, Beaulieu thinks corporate fundamentals are good. While valuations are stretched, all-in yields are accretive, particularly to fixed-income portfolios. She likes the structured areas and private placements.

    32 min
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Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Explore the latest trends in global credit markets with the biggest movers and shapers on Wall Street and the City, hosted by financial reporting veteran Lisa Lee.

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