Markets Unscripted

Markets Unscripted

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2 Traders, 1 Goal - Honest Conversations Markets Unscripted brings together two traders who approach the same world from opposite sides — and still end up finding truth in the same place. Each episode cuts through noise, narrative, and prediction to uncover what’s actually moving markets — the behaviour, psychology, and structure underneath price.

3 dage siden

Crowded Longs, Failing AI Leadership & the 90% Win-Rate Lie

The market is sitting near all-time highs—but beneath the surface, some of its former leaders are flashing warning signs. In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine why many AI-related stocks have struggled to reclaim their highs despite a powerful rebound in the broader indexes. They break down the changing leadership in names such as NVIDIA, AMD, ARM, Dell, Caterpillar, Nebius, and others—and discuss why traders should never fall in love with yesterday’s winners. Jason also reveals one of the most crowded trades he currently sees, while Matt explains why rising volatility and weakening relative strength have pushed him toward a more cautious posture. Then, the conversation turns to one of the most misleading statistics in trading: win rate. Why can a 70%, 80%, or even 90% win rate be a major red flag? Matt and Jason explain how traders can win repeatedly and still suffer devastating losses—and why risk-to-reward, drawdowns, and the size of your winners matter far more than simply being right. In this episode: • Why former AI leaders are struggling• The warning beneath the market’s record highs• Why lagging stocks are rarely bargains• Jason’s crowded-trade warning on copper• The hidden danger of short selling• Why trading more often can work against you• The truth behind advertised 90% win rates• How professional traders evaluate performance Learn more from Matt Caruso and Caruso Insights:https://www.carusoinsights.com Follow Jason Shapiro and the Crowded Market Report:https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com This content is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment advice.
10. aug.

Bears Sound Smart. Bulls Make Money.

The market is back near all-time highs, corporate earnings are surging, and strength is expanding far beyond a handful of AI stocks. Yet many traders remain fixated on finding the next major collapse.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine why bearish arguments can sound so convincing—even while the market continues moving higher. They discuss the danger of becoming emotionally attached to the short side, why traders should focus on the market’s reaction to news, and what would actually signal that the bullish trend is beginning to break.Matt and Jason also break down the crowded positioning in the Dow, the recent breakout and reversal in the S&P 500, the upcoming inflation test, booming corporate earnings, expanding liquidity, and the growing strength across international markets, commodities, and traditional industries.The goal is not to remain bullish forever. It is to stop predicting what should happen and start responding to what the market is actually telling you.
6. jul.

Banks, Gold, Biotech & AI: The Rotation Trade

AI stocks finally got hit with their first major test of this uptrend.After months of relentless strength, the leading AI names saw sharp volatility, major pullbacks, and a wave of rotation into banks, biotech, gold, small caps, and other areas of the market.So is the AI trade over?Or is this just the first real shakeout before the next leg higher?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down the current market rotation, the crowded macro narrative around rates, the setup in gold and the dollar, why banks and healthcare have started to lead, and what the recent selloff in AI stocks may really be telling investors.They also discuss why big winners come with brutal pullbacks, why process matters more than prediction, and why no strategy avoids pain — it only defines how you handle it.Topics covered:AI stock volatilityMarket rotation into banks, biotech, and small capsGold, bonds, the dollar, and rate expectationsWhy crowded narratives can be dangerousThe first pullback to the 50-day moving averageWhy the AI trade may not be over yetTrading psychology after big gainsWhy there is no “perfect” trading strategyThis is not financial advice. Markets involve risk, and all trading decisions should be based on your own process and risk management.
29. jun.

The Bears Have A Great Story. The Bulls Have The Trend.

Everyone wants to call the AI trade over.But what if this is not the end of the move — just the rotation before the next leg higher?In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why the market may be shifting beneath the surface, how small caps, banks, healthcare, housing, and AI leaders are rotating, and why the biggest mistake traders make is letting scary narratives override process.Matt also compares today’s AI buildout to the railroad boom of the 1800s — a massive infrastructure cycle that almost nobody believed in at the time — while Jason lays out the real risk: not that AI disappears, but that leverage, hubris, or credit stress eventually breaks something.They also discuss why bearish arguments always sound smarter, why bull markets are harder to sit through than people think, and how to use market signals instead of social media panic to guide decisions.
22. jun.

This Is the Most Hated Bull Market Ever

Everyone keeps trying to call the top… but the market keeps refusing to agree.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why this may be one of the most hated bull markets they’ve ever seen — with AI, semiconductors, small caps, and new 52-week highs continuing to push higher while investors stay trapped in bearish narratives.They discuss why fighting the tape can be deadly for traders, how AI could be reshaping entire industries, why relative strength still matters more than opinions, and what signs Jason would actually need to see before calling a real market top.From Micron, NVIDIA, ARM, Intel, Caterpillar, small caps, Fed reactions, positioning data, and the psychology of investors waiting for the “perfect pullback,” this episode digs into the market’s biggest question:Is this a bubble… or are most people still underestimating the AI boom?
15. jun.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT… THE MARKET IS STRENGTHENING

Markets are rallying hard again — and despite the constant bearish arguments, the tape keeps telling a very different story.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why the market appears to be broadening beyond the AI trade, with strength showing up in small caps, regional banks, healthcare, industrials, and other areas that many investors are still ignoring.They also dig into the psychology of traders who stay bearish no matter what the data says, why relative strength matters more than opinions, and how the market often reveals the truth long before the explanation becomes obvious.Matt also revisits the 2000 IPO comparison, including how lockup expirations actually played out during the dot-com peak — and why the timing of today’s IPO concerns may be very different from what the bears are arguing.Plus, Jason shares why AI may be a much bigger productivity shift than many people realize, and why the winners and losers from this new era could be massive.Topics covered:Why the bull market may be getting stronger under the surfaceSmall caps and regional banks showing surprising leadershipWhy bearish arguments keep shiftingThe danger of fighting the tapeAI as a productivity superpowerThe 2000 IPO parallel and what people may be missingHow Matt uses a “FOMO indicator” to manage short-term riskWhy relative strength keeps pointing to opportunityThis is not a market to sleep on.
8. jun.

Is Liquidity the Real Risk to the AI Bull Market?

Last Friday, the AI trade finally hit a wall.After months of relentless strength, several high-flying AI-related stocks were hit hard, while a popular 3X South Korea ETF tied to the memory and storage trade collapsed more than 40%. Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why this may not be “the top,” but could be an important warning sign about leverage, liquidity, and crowded positioning.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt and Jason revisit Jesse Livermore’s famous 1906 liquidity warning, when competing capital raises in the railroad sector helped signal trouble before a major market decline. Today, the question is whether massive funding needs from AI infrastructure, Google, Meta, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI could eventually strain market liquidity.They also discuss why bull markets usually do not end in one day, how deleveraging events can reveal the next leadership group, and why traders should be watching which stocks hold up best during market weakness.The conversation also covers possible next-stage AI beneficiaries beyond chips, including healthcare, software, data infrastructure, and select names showing relative strength.Topics covered:The AI trade’s sharp selloffLiquidity risk vs. valuation riskGoogle and Meta’s massive capital raisesSpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPO concernsJesse Livermore’s 1906 warning signalWhy leverage can destroy traders fastHow to spot real leadership during market pullbacksEli Lilly, Snowflake, Twilio, Veeco, and other AI-adjacent setupsBitcoin’s relative weaknessWhy position sizing matters more than most traders thinkThis episode is not about calling a bear market. It is about identifying the warning signs that could matter if liquidity starts to dry up.
1. jun.

SpaceX IPO: Former NASA Chief Engineer on Elon’s Launch Dominance

SpaceX could be heading toward one of the biggest IPOs in market history — but is it a bubble, a breakthrough, or something even bigger?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro sit down with Greg Frady, former NASA Chief Engineer for early commercial crew, commercial payloads, and the commercial lunar lander program. With 38 years of experience across major space programs, Greg breaks down what investors need to understand about SpaceX, Starlink, reusable rockets, Blue Origin, space-based data centers, satellite networks, and the commercialization of space.The conversation goes far beyond valuation. They discuss how Elon Musk changed the economics of launch, why Falcon 9 was such a major unlock, whether space data centers are actually possible, how Starlink could reshape global communications, and why companies like Planet Labs and AST SpaceMobile may represent the next wave of space-driven opportunities.They also cover the biggest risks investors may be underestimating — including launch failures, supply chain dependencies, government contracts, regulation, and why space stocks can move violently when things go wrong.Is the SpaceX IPO the top of the market… or the start of something much bigger?Key Timestamps00:00 — SpaceX IPO could be one of the biggest ever01:46 — How commercialization changed the space industry03:57 — Why Falcon 9 and reusable rockets changed the economics06:30 — Starlink, vertical integration, and SpaceX’s satellite advantage09:27 — How much SpaceX reduced launch costs15:45 — Why space is still hard despite SpaceX making it look easy19:28 — Did Blue Origin’s failure make SpaceX even more valuable?23:08 — What investors may be missing in the SpaceX valuation26:37 — Are space-based AI data centers actually possible?51:23 — Planet Labs, agriculture, and real-world space use cases

2 Traders, 1 Goal - Honest Conversations Markets Unscripted brings together two traders who approach the same world from opposite sides — and still end up finding truth in the same place. Each episode cuts through noise, narrative, and prediction to uncover what’s actually moving markets — the behaviour, psychology, and structure underneath price.

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Markets Unscripted
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2026
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33
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© Markets Unscripted
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