Ecommerce Playbook: Numbers, Struggles & Growth

Common Thread Collective

2020 transformed the world of ecommerce forever. For the modern DTC brand, the rewards have never been greater. But the waters have also never been choppier, and the way forward has never been more uncertain. So how do you navigate this dangerous new reality? No matter how you do it, you’d better not do it alone. That’s where the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast comes in — join Common Thread Collective’s Taylor Holiday & Richard Gaffin as they bring you guiding insights from across CTC’s portfolio of growing DTC businesses. Whether you need a clear view on the macro issues affecting the world of ecommerce, or want to reorient your business around groundbreaking new big-picture strategies, Taylor & Richard are here to help answer the tough questions about what it takes to scale — and sustain — an ecommerce business.

  1. HACE 4 DÍAS

    Q1 2026 vs 2025: What Changed in Ecommerce (The Data)

    Steve Rekuc, Director of Data at Common Thread Collective, joins Richard to break down the Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025 year-over-year data from the DTC Index. The headline: Meta spend is up 25% year over year while ROAS only degraded 3%. Google ROAS actually increased 12% despite higher spend. The platforms are getting more elastic. In this episode: Total revenue up 13.6% YoY with more coming from returning customers Meta spend up 25.28% with only 3% ROAS degradation  Google ROAS up 12% with 3.65% more spend Why AI-driven ad delivery is making both platforms better CPMs are up but click-through rates are improving The DTC Index data set: 200-300 stores, proprietary consumer confidence metrics Consumer confidence: future purchase sentiment and hope for the economy How the DTCCI (DTC Consumer Confidence Index) predicts spending elasticity Show Notes: Go to https://www.chargeflow.io/ and use CF30 to recover chargebacks free for 30 days. Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

    17 min

  2. HACE 6 DÍAS

    You Don't Want Strategy. You Want an Outcome.

    The number one pain point brands bring to us: "My current agency gives me execution, not strategy." Luke and Richard, break down why that complaint, while valid, doesn't go far enough. Most brands are stuck in one of two broken relationships: An agency that only executes (you tell them what to do, they do it) A consultant that only strategizes (they give you a plan and leave) Neither owns the outcome. And that's the real problem. In this episode, Luke and Richard walk through the hierarchy of what actually matters: Execution is the baseline (necessary but not sufficient) Strategy is the ascension (backed by data, methodology, and experience) Outcome is the North Star (predictable results you can hold someone accountable to) Key insight: If the outcome isn't there, the strategy doesn't matter. If the strategy isn't there, the execution is just busy work. The Prophit Engine is built to own all three. 3% forecast accuracy across billions in managed revenue. That's outcome ownership. Show Notes: Axon is offering $5K ad credit when you spend $5K. Go to https://axon.ai/en/ctc to set up your first campaign. Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

    23 min

  3. 16 ABR

    How the Prophit Engine Actually Works (Full Walkthrough)

    Taylor and Luke, walk through exactly how the Prophit Engine system enables one person to deliver the work and outcome of three. This isn't about replacing people with AI. It's about what happens when you combine 12 years of methodology, a purpose-built data infrastructure, and an operator empowered by enterprise-grade tooling. In this roundtable replay, Taylor demos: How data infrastructure creates the foundation for fast decisions The planning process: marketing calendar → financial forecast → daily targets Statlas dashboard: from contribution margin to campaign-level actions The Hierarchy of Metrics: diagnosing problems top to bottom Creative demand planning: how many ads, what products, which moments Outlier engine: why 3.5% of ads drive 66% of spend How AI context layers are making Prophit Engineers move 10x faster Luke walks through: Creative analytics: spending power, outlier rates, activation economics How to turn creative production from gambling into math Key stat: 3% forecast-to-target accuracy across $3B+ in managed revenue. Show Notes: Go to https://www.chargeflow.io/ and use CF30 to recover chargebacks free for 30 days. Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

    56 min

  4. 14 ABR

    How We Diagnose Every Ecommerce Problem (The Hierarchy of Metrics)

    Tony Chopp, walks through the Hierarchy of Metrics — the framework our Prophit Engineers use to diagnose problems and take action for 170+ ecommerce brands. In this episode, Tony and Richard break down a real brand example in Statlas, showing how you go from a contribution margin miss all the way down to a specific campaign adjustment in Google Ads. The hierarchy: Business-level metrics (revenue, contribution margin, ad spend) Customer-level metrics (new vs. returning, paid vs. organic) Channel-level metrics (Google, Meta, email — iROAS by channel) Campaign-level actions (bids, budgets, new creative) Key takeaways: Your ROAS target should be backed into through incrementality math and unit economics — not vibes "4 is not necessarily better than 3" — if 3 is the right number based on your COGS and incrementality, targeting 4 leaves volume on the table Over-efficiency is a symptom of underspend, not a badge of honor Good data in = good decisions out. The system is only as strong as your cost data, audience segmentation, and incrementality testing Show Notes: See how their guarantees work at https://redstag.com/ Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

    31 min

  5. 9 ABR

    The Right Way to Use AI in Your Ad Creative

    AI is changing how ecommerce brands produce creative. But most brands are using it wrong. They're generating entire ads with AI and wondering why performance drops. Or they're ignoring it entirely and falling behind on volume. In this episode, we break down how to actually use AI in your creative workflow without sacrificing the authenticity that drives results. The brands winning with AI aren't replacing their creative process. They're using AI to scale what already works. What we cover: Why pure AI-generated creative sees CTR drops within 3 weeks Where AI actually adds value in the creative pipeline (backgrounds, cleanup, iteration) How to maintain authenticity while increasing creative volume The production ecosystem that lets you play probability instead of gambling Why 3-5% of your ads drive 70-80% of spend and what that means for AI If you're running Meta ads and trying to figure out where AI fits into your creative strategy, this episode cuts through the hype. Show Notes: Axon is offering $5K ad credit when you spend $5K. Go to https://axon.ai/en/ctc to set up your first campaign. Explore the Prophit Engine Lite: https://meetings.hubspot.com/richard-gaffin The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

    28 min

  6. 7 ABR

    Why CTC Bought Into Commerce Roundtable

    Common Thread Collective is now an owner in Commerce Roundtable. In this episode, Taylor with Jimmy Kim, founder of Commerce Roundtable, to tell the full story of how this partnership came together and why in-person events matter more than ever. Jimmy shares the origin story of Commerce Roundtable, from a 50-person CBD roundtable in a San Diego office in 2019 to a community-driven ecommerce event with 350+ curated attendees. Taylor talks about why CTC decided to go from attendee to owner, and what they're building together. What we cover: How Commerce Roundtable started in 2019 and evolved through COVID Why most ecommerce events are broken (vendor-first, content-last) The difference between sponsor-driven events and community-driven events Why physical proximity and in-person relationships compound over time How CTC and Commerce Roundtable plan to work together What's coming: Austin (April 20-21), retention road show, San Diego (September) Why brands are willing to pay $400 to be in the room The future of ecommerce events and education If you're building an ecommerce brand and you want to be in rooms with operators who actually get it, this is why we invested. Commerce Roundtable: https://commerceroundtable.com Show Notes: See how their guarantees work at https://redstag.com/ Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

    29 min

  7. 2 ABR

    5 Questions That Drive 80% of Your Growth

    Every ecommerce growth team spends the majority of their time answering the same five questions. The problem? Most brands answer them with disconnected tools, siloed teams, and spreadsheets that have nothing to do with the actual marketing levers they can pull. In this episode, Luke breaks down the five questions that account for 80% of your marketing team's work - and how the Prophit Engine answers all five inside a single system: What should my forecast be, and what does each channel need to deliver? What's the optimal spend allocation across channels? How much creative output do I actually need? What's the right full-funnel Meta strategy and daily optimization workflow? Where's the gap vs. forecast, and what specific action closes it today? For each question, Luke walks through how brands typically answer it (disconnected finance forecasts, historical budget splits, gambling on creative volume, manual ad building, weekly business reviews) - and how a unified system replaces all of that with daily clarity. Show Notes: See how their guarantees work at https://redstag.com/ Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

    42 min

  8. 31 MAR

    The Growth System for Brands Under $1M

    CTC has never had a service offering for brands below seven figures. That changes today. Prophit Engine Lite is for any Ecommerce brand with established revenue below $1M annually. If you're past the startup phase, running ads, generating sales, and trying to figure out how to grow profitably, this is built for you. In this episode, Richard walks through exactly what PE Lite includes: Step 1: Connect every data source to Statlas. Marketing data, store data, COGS, shipping costs, fixed expenses, promo schedule. Everything in one place. One source of truth. Step 2: Build a custom 12-month forecast model. What happens if business continues as usual? What needs to change to hit your goals? Where are the gaps? The model shows you. Step 3: Growth guidance from a Prophit Engineer. Monthly sessions where your PE guides you through what to do next. What levers to pull. Where to allocate budget. What to stop doing. Plus: Weekly cohort Q&A with Joy Sharma (Head of PE7 Accelerator). Learn alongside other founders in similar positions. Pricing: $1,500 onboarding (data integration + model build) $500/month after (month-to-month, cancel anytime) Show Notes: Axon is offering $5K ad credit when you spend $5K. Go to https://axon.ai/en/ctc to set up your first campaign. Explore the Prophit Engine Lite: https://meetings.hubspot.com/richard-gaffin The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

    11 min
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2020 transformed the world of ecommerce forever. For the modern DTC brand, the rewards have never been greater. But the waters have also never been choppier, and the way forward has never been more uncertain. So how do you navigate this dangerous new reality? No matter how you do it, you’d better not do it alone. That’s where the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast comes in — join Common Thread Collective’s Taylor Holiday & Richard Gaffin as they bring you guiding insights from across CTC’s portfolio of growing DTC businesses. Whether you need a clear view on the macro issues affecting the world of ecommerce, or want to reorient your business around groundbreaking new big-picture strategies, Taylor & Richard are here to help answer the tough questions about what it takes to scale — and sustain — an ecommerce business.

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