Prediction Market Movers

Prediction News

Each week, Chris Gerlacher talks to industry insiders, financial analysts and legal experts on all of the latest developments in prediction markets.

  1. hace 3 días

    Steve Ruddock Explains Why Prediction Markets Face Their Biggest Test Yet | Prediction Market Movers

    In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with gaming industry analyst-consultant Steve Ruddock to examine how today's prediction markets compare to the early days of daily fantasy sports, online poker, and sports betting. They discuss the legal battles surrounding Kalshi and Polymarket, the role of the Supreme Court, and why history may provide a roadmap for where prediction markets are headed next. Steve also shares insights on the similarities between DFS and prediction markets, the influence of the American Gaming Association (AGA), responsible gaming debates, federal versus state regulation, and how companies like FanDuel are approaching prediction markets. The conversation also explores why messaging, lobbying, and regulatory strategy could determine the industry's future as much as the courtroom battles. Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:45 - Early stage DFS compared to early stage prediction market 4:20 - DFS durability 7:00 - Legalities with gaming institutions 8:30 - Too big to fail argument 13:15 - Which companies can survive long term? 16:30 - Where prediction markets could fall in court 18:00 - How can PMs weather the mental health aspect of unhealthy gaming 21:30 - Is the gaming lobby misunderstood? 26:40 - What is the AGA’s focus right now? 30:30 - Scenarios for PM survivability #predictionmarkets #SteveRuddock #PredictionMarketMovers #Kalshi #Polymarket #SportsBetting #GamingIndustry #GamblingLaw #PredictionNews #DFS #CFTC #GamingRegulation #SportsContracts #DraftKings #fanduel Guest Steve Ruddock – Gaming journalist covering prediction markets, sports betting, online gaming regulation, and gambling policy. Check out Steve's work at https://straighttothepoint.substack.com/ Host Chris Gerlacher – Prediction News

  2. 29 jul

    Can SportsPredict Find the Next Generation of Traders? | Prediction Market Movers

    In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Steve Kuhn and Shani Raviv, the founders of Sports Predict, to discuss how forecasting competitions are being used to identify top quantitative talent for trading firms. They explain how Sports Predict evaluates forecasting ability through probability-based competitions and how consistent decision-making can be measured using Brier scores instead of traditional resumes or interviews. They also discuss the growing importance of forecasting in prediction markets, finance, and AI. Steve and Shani share why sports provide an ideal environment for measuring forecasting skill, how participants build statistical models to improve predictions, and why elite forecasters often outperform even leading AI models. They also explain how forecasting contests create a scalable way to discover talented traders from around the world and what makes prediction markets an effective testing ground for decision-making under uncertainty. Shani and Stve share Sports Predict's long-term vision, including future applications beyond sports, the role of AI in forecasting, partnerships with firms like Jump Trading, and how prediction markets could reshape hiring and talent identification across industries. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. Learn More: Prediction News https://predictionnews.com Prediction Edge https://predictionedge.com SportsPredict https://sportspredict.com/ 00:00 - Intro 1:45 - On Talent identification 5:45 - How does SportsPredict work? 9:00 - The idea behind SportsPredict 13:32 - What has changed to level the playing field 15:00 - Partnership with Trade Jumpers 17:30 - Improvement with the program 19:45 - Credentialed traders 23:00 - What’s next for SportsPredict? 27:10 - How volatile is the leaderboard? 30:00- Sharing strategies #PredictionMarkets #SportsPredict #SteveKuhn #ShaniRaviv #PredictionMarketMovers #Forecasting #Superforecasting #QuantTrading #JumpTrading #SportsAnalytics #AI #Trading #PredictionNews

  3. 22 jul

    Seni Thomas of Edge Markets on Banking & Payment Rails | Prediction Market Movers

    How do professional prediction market traders move millions of dollars between exchanges, and why are traditional banks often unwilling to support them? In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Seni Thomas, founder of Edge Markets, to discuss the hidden infrastructure powering prediction markets. From banking challenges and real-time payments to capital efficiency and liquidity management, Seni explains why payment rails may be one of the biggest growth opportunities in the industry. Seni shares how Edge Markets is approaching real-time payments, capital constraints, fragmented liquidity, OTC block trading, and enterprise banking for trading firms. The conversation also explores the role of RTP and FedNow, the importance of market-making infrastructure, and how future NFA and FCM-related capabilities could affect the broader prediction market ecosystem. Chris and Seni also discuss the long-term outlook for the industry, including competition between exchanges, sportsbook operators entering the space, responsible gaming tools, and why Edge Markets believes prediction markets could become a multi-trillion-dollar industry.  👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. Learn More: Prediction News https://predictionnews.com Prediction Edge https://predictionedge.com Edge Markets https://edgemarkets.io 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Problems that trading accounts have with traditional banks 6:15 - How has trading changed since arbitrage? 8:20 Solving combo pricing 12:30 - On large trades 13:55 - Why don’t traditional banks like trading? 17:50 - Qualifications for EDGE Markets 19:35 - Timeline on NFA membership 21:35 - EDGE Markets margins 22:35 - Early gaming features  27:00 - Traction with prediction markets 29:40 - Fragmentation in the markets 31:20- What anew exchange brings?   #PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionNews #EdgeMarkets #SeniThomas #Kalshi #Polymarket #Fintech #Banking #Payments #TradingInfrastructure

  4. 15 jul

    How River Markets is Transforming Prediction Market Trading | Prediction Market Movers

    In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Oscar Levy, founder of River Markets, to discuss how his company is building prime brokerage infrastructure for prediction markets. Oscar explains why liquidity is fragmented across exchanges, how River Markets uses smart order routing to help traders find the best available prices, and why execution quality becomes increasingly important for professional and institutional traders. The conversation dives into multi-venue execution, machine learning for market mapping, slippage reduction, portfolio and risk management, and how River Markets approaches trading across major prediction market platforms. Oscar also explains how professional traders differ from recreational traders, why prediction market contracts require sophisticated execution tools, and how River Markets is designed to optimize trading across multiple exchanges. Chris and Oscar also discuss the future of prediction market infrastructure, the expanding landscape of CFTC-regulated exchanges, Y Combinator, and River Markets' roadmap for supporting additional trading venues and financial products.  👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. Learn More: Prediction News https://predictionnews.com Prediction Edge https://predictionedge.com River Market https://www.rivermarkets.com/ 0:00 - Intro 1:15 - Why fragmented exchanges and River Market? 3:30 - On River Market’s algorithm 4:30 - Protecting customers and resolutions 6:15 - Splitting prices and navigating volatility 8:45 - What strategies are used? 9:45 - Every trader has a process 10:30 - Underrated features of River Market 12:00 - On River Market's forecast models and patterns 14:45 - How safe is River market from disruptions? 15:45 - Risk management products 17:05 - Y-combinator experience 20:00 - Future plans for River Market #PredictionMarkets #RiverMarkets #OscarLevy #PredictionMarketMovers #Kalshi #Polymarket #Trading #Finance #AlgorithmicTrading #MachineLearning #Fintech #CFTC #MarketStructure #Liquidity #PredictionNews

  5. 8 jul

    How Hunter Guo Built a Prediction Market Watchdog | Prediction Market Movers

    Chris Gerlacher welcomes Hunter Guo, founder of Verdict HQ, on Prediction Market Movers to discuss Polymarket resolution risk and how a controversial MicroStrategy Bitcoin market led Hunter to build an independent watchdog for prediction market contracts. Hunter explains how Verdict HQ scores markets using six factors: time clarity, resolution source, outcome definitions, edge cases, and post-trade risk. The goal is to help traders identify contracts that may be difficult to resolve cleanly before they place a trade. The conversation covers ambiguous market wording, UMA voting, and examples from crypto, geopolitics, sports, and breaking news. Chris and Hunter also discuss which types of markets tend to be safer or riskier. They close by talking about the future of prediction markets, including AI-assisted analysis, community reputation features, and why clearer standards and independent oversight matter as the industry grows. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Crypto trading to prediction Markets 3:10 - Getting involved with trading on Polymarket 5:20 - Market resolution incident 11:05 - Launching Verdict 13:30 - Detecting market clarity 17:35 - Which markets are high risk? 20:35 - Upcoming features on Verdict #PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #HunterGuo #PredictionMarketMovers #Crypto #Bitcoin #Blockchain #Kalshi #DeFi #UMA #Forecasting #ElectionMarkets #PredictionNews #Trading #CryptoTrading

  6. 6 jul

    Gaeten Dugas Exposes Spotify Streaming Fraud That Broke Kalshi Markets | Prediction Market Movers

    On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with top 100 Kalshi trader Gaeten Dugas to break down how suspicious Spotify streaming activity allegedly manipulated prediction markets, and what the data reveals about coordinated botting campaigns. The conversation explores how fraudulent Spotify streams affected Kalshi Culture Markets, why Ella Langley appeared destined to win before unexpected market shifts, and how traders identified unusual U.S.-only streaming spikes tied to specific artists. They also discuss the broader implications for prediction markets, market integrity, regulation, and the CFTC, including the growing challenge of third-party manipulation, flawed resolution sources, and what exchanges like Kalshi may need to change moving forward. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the 2026 midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 0:00 - Intro 1:30 - Spotify stream market 3:15 - Timeline of issues 24:00 - Kalshi’s resolution 28:05 - Kalshi’s response 30:00 - Spotify’s updated figures 33:30 - How should Kalshi adjust? 36:30 - Cleaning up market resolution 38:45 - 3rd party manipulation #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Spotify #SpotifyStreams #MarketManipulation #Polymarket #Crypto #StreamingFraud #PredictionNews #Trading #CFTC #MarketIntegrity #MusicIndustry #ElectionMarkets

  7. 1 jul

    SafeBets Wants to Reward Skill, Not Losses | Prediction Market Movers

    Welcome back to Prediction Market Movers! In this episode, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Gina Antoniello of SafeBets to discuss a new approach to prediction markets that rewards users for accurate forecasting without requiring them to risk their own money. Gina explains how SafeBets uses Unicoin, an "accuracy economy," and institutional market intelligence to create a different model from traditional sports betting and prediction platforms. The conversation explores how SafeBets identifies top forecasters, monetizes aggregated prediction data instead of user losses, and approaches consumer protection through product design. Chris and Gina also discuss the role of crypto, regulatory challenges, prediction market innovation, sports betting psychology, academic research at NYU, and the future expansion of prediction markets into politics and other categories. Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the 2026 midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:15 - How does SafeBets work? 6:30 - Company growth tied to a coin 8:00 - Operating without much regulation 11:00 - Markets insiders and available markets 13:10 - Navigating through an unknown crypto space 19:30 - SafeBets research strategy 22:00 - Utilizing user psychology 24:20 - Response after launching SafeBets 27:45 - Bets outside of sports 30:20 - Are political bets in the future? 31:30 - Sports and politics intersecting   #PredictionMarkets #SafeBets #Crypto #SportsBetting #Web3 #Forecasting #PredictionNews #PredictionMarketMovers #SportsPrediction #Blockchain #CryptoNews #BehavioralEconomics #Unicoin #SportsAnalytics #Fintech

  8. 26 jun

    Inside Professional Prediction Market Trading with Domer | Prediction Market Movers

    Prediction market trader Domer joins host Chris Gerlacher on Prediction Market Movers for an in-depth discussion about the evolution of prediction markets, professional trading strategies, political forecasting, and the future of market resolution. Domer shares his experience trading across hundreds of prediction markets, explains how his approach has evolved since the early PredictIt days, and discusses finding an edge as prediction markets become increasingly efficient. The conversation explores political forecasting, reacting to breaking news, information asymmetry, insider activity, and why understanding market rules is just as important as understanding the underlying event. The episode also takes a deep dive into one of the industry's most debated topics: market resolution. Chris and Domer discuss Polymarket's UMA resolution controversies, Kalshi's centralized resolution process, contract interpretation, prediction market governance, and what improvements could help prediction markets continue to mature. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the 2026 midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - When the bets get bigger 2:15 - Which markets are for Domer  3:45 - PredictIts model 4:50 - Political trading changes 6:30 Finding an edge 7:30 - Dabbling with new topics and markets 10:00 - Details of a market 11:45 - hasn’t improved 14:00 - Adjusting to the political environment 15:40 - Reading into political movements 20:00 - Signs you’re trading against a pro 22:00 - Pulling back from a market 26:00 - History in unique markets 29:30 - Market resolution 38:00 - non-binary payouts 40:20 - Improving market resolution 43:45 - On Conspectus 47:15 - Future investments #PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionNews #Kalshi #Polymarket #Forecasting #ElectionMarkets #PoliticalForecasting #Trading #SportsPrediction #Crypto #AI #Investing #MarketAnalysis #EventContracts

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Each week, Chris Gerlacher talks to industry insiders, financial analysts and legal experts on all of the latest developments in prediction markets.

Información

  • Creador
    Prediction News
  • Años de actividad
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodios
    39
  • Clasificación
    Apto
  • Copyright
    © Prediction News
  • Mostrar sitio web
    Prediction Market Movers

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